Mercado de aditivos de borracha - crescimento, tendências, impacto do COVID-19 e previsões (2023-2028)

In the Asia-Pacific region, China is the largest economy in terms of GDP. The country witnessed about 6.1% growth in its GDP during 2019, even after the trade disturbance caused due to its trade war with the United States. The economic growth rate of China in 2020 was initially expected to be moderate as compared to the previous year. However, due to the onset of COVID-19 in 2020, the economic growth of China is estimated to contract to some extent and is expected to witness recovery in 2021.

Rubber additives are widely used in the processing of rubber and its allied products. The growing demand for rubber in tire manufacturing in the automotive sector has been driving the market for rubber additives. The recovering automotive industry and resuming of other rubber-based industries in the country is expected to drive the market studied in near future. China is one of the largest producers of natural rubber, churning out about 800,000 tons of material every year and also there is a potential for rubber additives in the country as they are used both to process natural and synthetic rubber. China's tire production and sales volume recorded continuous drops in the past 2-3 years, owing to the negative trends in local automotive industry. The automotive production and sales in China recorded negative growth rates of 7.5% & 8.2%, respectively, for the first time after two decades, in 2019. Furthermore, the domestic automotive production and sales recorded negative growth rates of 2% & 1.9%, respectively in 2020, owing to the pandemic and subsequent lockdowns depicting a negative market outlook temporarily. Moreover, apart from a drop in domestic consumption, the United States and the European Union’s anti-dumping tariffs also are casting a heavy shadow, as more than 40% of China's tires are exported to these two markets. This is further expected to hinder the production volumes of tires thereby having an impact on the market or rubber additives .

China exported 5.4 million metric ton of tires in 2018. Almost 40% of the passenger car tires (which totaled to two million metric ton) were exported to the United States and the European Union. Of the 3.4 million metric ton of truck and bus tires exported, nearly 25% were sold in these markets. Due to this imposed tariffs In June 2019, players such as Kenda Rubber Industrial Co. Ltd was reported to have transferred some of its tire production from Chinese factories to other Asian regions. Moreover, according to China Rubber Industry Association (CRIA), China's truck and bus tire production in 2019 was 41.64 million units, a fall by 4.6% as compared to that of 2018. In addition, the overall production (including bias tires) declined by 1.8% in 2019 (estimation) depiction a negative impact on the market studied. However, this discouraging situation is expected to be neutralized by the 14th Five-Year Plan of China for rubber industry which is expected to boost the market in for rubber additives in the coming years. By 2025, China is also projected to produce nearly 704 million tires per year, including 527 million passenger radial tires, 148 million truck/bus radial tires, 29 million bias truck tires, 20,000 extra-large industrial tires, 12 million agricultural tires and 54,000 aircraft tires. In addition, China is likely to produce 120.7 million motorcycle tires and 420 million bicycle tires annually by 2025. This is quite instrumental in propelling the market demand for rubber additives in the country over the forecast period.

Additionally, two advanced synthetic rubber projects were approved in China in October 2020. Petrochemical Research Institute of CNPC and Shandong Yulong Petrochemical Co. Ltd. formally signed the "Technical License Contract for TBIR and Integrated Rubber.“ TBIR is a copolymer rubber of butadiene and isoprene. It is a synthetic rubber that has not yet been industrialized in China. It can be widely used for high-performance tires, low-temperature components and sealing materials required by the military industry, and broad industrial application prospects. Integrated rubber is the third-generation SSBR, which has combined advantages of Natural Rubber, Butadiene Rubber, and SBR. During the processing all these rubbers in tire, cables or conveyor belts manufacturing different kinds of rubber additives are used to enhance their properties. With growth in these production lines, the demand for rubber additives market is also estimated to grow gradually in the coming years.

Rubber is resistant to several chemicals used in a car and can withstand the heat and cold. Rubber is also used to make gaskets used in cars, which help create a seal so there is no leak when fluids are flowing through junction areas in a pipe or a hose. Rubber is also used to cover electrical wires and to create shields for electrical parts and pieces in a car. According to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM), the automotive production is estimated to have declined by about 2% in 2020. Due to the coronavirus pandemic and the implementation of lockdown, the automotive manufacturing units have been shut down in the first quarter. However, the number of passenger cars produced in November 2020 is about 2.33 million, which registered a staggering 11.8% month-on-month growth, while 518 thousand commercial vehicles were produced in November with a 10.6% M-o-M growth. In 2019, the number of passenger cars produced from January to November is down by 8.1% year-on-year compared to the same period in 2020, while commercial vehicle production increased by 22.2% during the same period. The uncertainties in the automobile industry are estimated to have an impact on the market studied lately. Post recovery from the impact of COVID-19 outbreak which led to a dip in the demand for rubber additives in the country, the industrial demand is expected to normalize from 2021, creating scope for growth of the market studied in the coming years.