Turkey Heat Pump Market Size & Share Analysis - Growth Trends & Forecasts (2025 - 2030)

Turkey Heat Pump Market Trends and Insights

Accelerated Green-Building Permitting in Istanbul and Marmara Corridor

Faster permit processing—up to 45% shorter than for conventional systems—gives developers a measurable financial edge, particularly in Istanbul’s competitive real-estate pipeline.^{[1]CMS Law, “ESG in Real Estate – Green Leases expert guide in Türkiye,” cms.law} Early compliance momentum spreads to commercial retrofits as public buildings must secure green certification by 2026. A mixed-use project in Kadıköy slashed approval time from 14 months to 8 months after specifying variable-speed air-source heat pumps, illustrating direct CapEx-to-schedule linkages. Contractors note that permit acceleration offsets a portion of higher upfront equipment costs within months of ground-breaking. The policy aligns with municipal renovation subsidies that cover part of installation expenses for qualifying systems, reinforcing demand in the country’s wealthiest district.

Industrial Decarbonisation Mandates for Organised Industrial Zones (OIZs)

World Bank-backed Green OIZ guidelines impose energy-efficiency thresholds that now treat heat pumps as a compliance hedge for both space conditioning and low-temperature process heat.^{[2]World Bank, “Turkey’s Organized Industrial Zones to Become More Efficient, Environmentally Sustainable,” worldbank.org} A textile plant in Bursa installed a 500 kW unit to recycle dye-bath waste heat, trimming natural gas demand by 62% and cutting payback to under 4 years amid commodity-price volatility. Similar pilots in metal-finishing and food-processing lines are replicating these gains. Access to soft loans from multilateral climate funds further mitigates the capital premium that once deterred heavy industry from electrification.

Urbanisation and Residential Sector Growth

Turkey’s 8.8 million-building housing stock provides a vast retrofit addressable market strengthened by TuREEFF loans and bank-backed green mortgages.^{[3]REHVA Journal, “Energy Efficient Renovation Approach in Turkey,” rehva.eu} Mid-rise apartment blocks arising under Law 6306 urban-renewal rules are designed around 20–50 kW shared systems that deliver individual billing without flue-gas constraints. A 120-unit complex in Izmir switched from gas boilers to split heat pumps and recorded 38% utility savings while adding smart-meter functionality. Rising copper and aluminum prices introduced budget risk yet prompted higher-efficiency coil designs, pushing seasonal COP above regulatory baselines.

Rising Energy Costs and Demand for Efficiency

With Turkey importing 73% of its primary energy, volatile hydrocarbon prices elevate the relative appeal of a technology that yields up to five units of heat per unit of electricity. A coastal hotel group retrofitted air-source units and saw 41% hot-water cost relief, even after aluminum heat-exchanger price jumps forced redesign. Electricity tariffs are increasingly decoupled from global gas swings, widening the operating-cost delta and compressing payback periods for commercial buyers.

High Upfront Costs and Limited Financing Options

Heat pumps cost two to three times more than replacement gas boilers, discouraging middle-income households even when lifetime savings are favorable. Europe’s 2024 market pullback trimmed manufacturing economies of scale, leaving Turkish import prices exposed to raw-material inflation. A mid-rise project in Ankara canceled a planned geothermal loop after copper prices lifted total CapEx by 18%, settling for smaller air-source units with a longer payback. TuREEFF and municipal grant programs ease pressure yet remain oversubscribed, indicating the need for broader green finance avenues.

Limited Skilled Installers

Correct sizing, loop design, and refrigerant charging demand certified expertise that is scarce outside the Marmara and Aegean regions. Improper installation can slash efficiency by up to 30% and jeopardize warranties, creating reputational risk for manufacturers. A Kayseri office upgrade spent a 35% labor premium to bring qualified teams from Ankara, after local crews booked out for three months. National vocational bodies now partner with ISKID and EHPA to expand curricula, but in the near term, installer scarcity restricts deployment velocity in rural markets.

Segment Analysis

By Type: Air-Source Leads, Ground-Source Accelerates

Air-source units held a 62% share of Turkey's heat pump market in 2024, driven by plug-and-play retrofits suited to dense urban building stock. Retrofit subsidies and minimal site disruption keep uptake strong across Marmara's apartment blocks and coastal resorts. Ground-source systems hold a smaller base yet are forecast to expand at a 6.9% CAGR as industrial OIZ roadmaps privilege waste-heat capture and as state geothermal incentives narrow the cost gap.

Exhaust-air and hybrid variants remain niche but win share where specific return-air opportunities exist. Notably, a shopping center in Istanbul drilled 18,327 m of boreholes to anchor one of Europe's largest geothermal arrays, meeting 2,380 kW cooling and 1,227 kW heating peaks with a 9-year ROI. Multifunctional R32-charged platforms from COPA signal a pivot toward lower-GWP refrigerants ahead of EU-aligned F-gas restrictions, adding further differentiation inside the Turkey heat pump market.

Note: Segment shares of all individual segments available upon report purchase

By Rated Capacity: Mid-Range Dominates, Large Systems Grow Fast

The 20–50 kW band captured 34% of Turkey's heat pump market size in 2024, mapping neatly to four-story apartment blocks built under urban renewal codes. Builders prefer shared central plants that deliver zoning flexibility and simplified metering. Above 100 kW, demand accelerates at a 6.7% CAGR as resorts, universities, and industrial sites adopt central chill-heat platforms to maximize load diversity. 

Johnson Controls tripled Izmir plant output for YORK lines up to 700 kW, shortening import lead times and catering to regional exports. Capacity classes below 10 kW serve detached homes through e-commerce kits shipped nationwide, though installer interface packages remain critical for warranty activation.

By Application: Heating Rules, Hot Water Catches Up

Space heating supplied 55% of Turkey's heat pump market in 2024 as BEP-TR 2024 mandated seasonal COOP thresholds that air-source units readily surpass. Cooling-dominant Mediterranean hotels favor reversible units but still count thermal load hours squarely in the heating mode because of shoulder seasons. 

Domestic/sanitary hot water applications grow at 6.6% CAGR on the back of hotel developments along the Aegean coast and renewable-heat quotas in new building permits. All-in-one systems like Daikin Multi+ deliver heating, cooling, and water heating through a single outdoor compressor, cutting installer visits and lowering the total cost of ownership.

Note: Segment shares of all individual segments available upon report purchase

By End-User Vertical: Residential in Front, Industrial Rapid

Residential projects held a 47% market share in 2024 thanks to green mortgages from Ziraat Bankası and Emlak Katılım. Awareness campaigns linking indoor air quality, earthquake retrofits, and energy bills broaden appeal among owner-occupiers. 

Industrial buyers pursue a faster 6.9% CAGR as ETS-aligned carbon pricing penalizes combustion boilers. A Bursa food-processing plant slashed gas use by 58% with a 200 kW waste-heat unit, recouping investment despite a 15% stainless-steel cost hike. Institutional demand rises, too, because public buildings must meet green-certification rules by 2026, driving bulk tender activity that enlarges Turkey's heat pump market volume.

By Installation Type: Retrofit/Replacement Predominates, New Build Gains Pace

Retrofits represented 66% of Turkey's heat pump market share in 2024, replacing aging boilers that face electricity-indexed gas tariffs. Space constraints and mixed radiator loops require configurable inverter technology, a niche domestic suppliers address through modular indoor units. 

New-build penetration, projected at a 6.4% CAGR, benefits from BEP-TR rules that oblige projects over 5,000 m² to source at least 5% of thermal demand from renewables. The World Bank’s Seismic Resilience program layers energy upgrades onto structural works, further lifting retrofit volumes in public stock. 

Note: Segment shares of all individual segments available upon report purchase

By Sales Channel: Dealer Networks Rule, Digital Emerges

Dealer-installer ecosystems owned 70% of Turkey's heat pump market in 2024. Baymak’s 1,000-dealer grid and 1,500 technicians illustrate the service depth needed for warranty confidence. Online marketplaces Trendyol and Hepsiburada now ship ≤10 kW kits nationwide, propelling a 7% CAGR digital channel that addresses price transparency and next-day delivery expectations. 

Retailers bundle remote-assist packages to tackle the skills gap and protect end-user satisfaction in the Turkey heat pump industry. Direct OEM sales remain limited to large industrial contracts, where lifecycle service agreements align closely with plant utility budgets.

Geography Analysis

Marmara commanded 34% of Turkey heat pump market in 2024, reflecting higher income levels, dense housing stock primed for retrofits, and Istanbul’s accelerated permitting scheme. The region’s commercial sector also pioneers geothermal district energy despite challenging borehole geology, as evidenced by a Levent office cluster that optimized drilling layouts when costs spiked 23%. Strong municipal subsidies push homeowners toward variable-speed air-source units to cut gas bills while meeting revised BEP-TR thresholds.

Eastern Anatolia is forecast to exhibit a robust 7.1% CAGR between 2025 and 2030. Government insulation grants and long heating seasons increase economic viability even after factoring in transport premiums and installer scarcity. A 120-home rural development in Erzurum switched from coal to air-source pumps and reduced heating bills by 47% after on-site vocational training produced by certified local installers. National mapping of high-potential zones, launched in May 2025, identifies similar rural clusters that could gain from community-scale procurement.

Mediterranean and Aegean coastal provinces blend space-cooling dominance with year-round domestic-hot-water loads for hospitality, driving integrated pump sales at resorts and boutique hotels. Central Anatolia’s temperature extremes underpin geothermal interest where aquifer conditions allow closed-loop installations. Black Sea provinces leverage air-source units optimized for high humidity, with municipal hybrid systems combining heat pumps and solar thermal arrays to mitigate fog-related solar yield variability. Collectively, these dynamics expand the addressable volume and progressively balance the regional mix within Turkey's heat pump market.