Indonesia Heat Pump Market Size and Share
Market Overview
| Study Period | 2019 - 2030 |
|---|---|
| Base Year For Estimation | 2024 |
| Forecast Data Period | 2025 - 2030 |
| Market Size (2025) | USD 1.34 Billion |
| Market Size (2030) | USD 1.84 Billion |
| Growth Rate (2025 - 2030) | 6.61% CAGR |
| Market Concentration | Medium |
Major Players
*Disclaimer: Major Players sorted in no particular order Image © Mordor Intelligence. Reuse requires attribution under CC BY 4.0. |
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Indonesia Heat Pump Market Analysis by Mordor Intelligence
The Indonesia Heat Pump Market size is estimated at USD 1.34 billion in 2025, and is expected to reach USD 1.84 billion by 2030, at a CAGR of 6.61% during the forecast period (2025-2030). indonesia-heat-pump-market Growth is anchored in the country's pledge to lift the share of new and renewable energy in primary supply to 23% by 2029. Rising electricity access, tighter building efficiency rules, and falling equipment costs are shifting heat pumps from niche to mainstream solutions for cooling, hot water, and select industrial loads. Manufacturers are localizing production to shorten lead times and align products with Indonesia's humid tropical climate[1]Daikin Industries, “Daikin Establishes Air Conditioner Factory in Indonesia,” Daikin Industries, daikin.com. Digital sales channels are opening fresh routes to buyers, while supportive financing tools target the upfront cost hurdle. The strongest opportunities lie in multi-functional systems that deliver simultaneous heating and cooling, integration with rooftop solar, and compact designs suitable for dense urban housing.
Key Report Takeaways
- By type, air-source systems led with 78% revenue share in 2024; water-source units are projected to expand at a 6.9% CAGR through 2030.
- By rated capacity, 10–20 kW units held 35% of Indonesia heat pump market share in 2024, while <10 kW units are slated to grow at a 6.2% CAGR to 2030.
- By application, space cooling commanded 60% share of the Indonesia heat pump market size in 2024 and domestic hot water is advancing at a 6.7% CAGR through 2030.
- By end-user vertical, the residential segment captured 48% share in 2024; the institutional segment shows the fastest trajectory at 6.2% CAGR.
- By installation type, new-build projects accounted for 62% of the Indonesia heat pump market size in 2024, whereas retrofits are accelerating at a 6.8% CAGR.
- By sales channel, distributor–installer networks controlled 55% share in 2024; e-commerce sales are expanding at a robust 6.3% CAGR.
Indonesia Heat Pump Market Trends and Insights
Drivers Impact Analysis
| Driver | (~) % Impact on CAGR Forecast | Geographic Relevance | Impact Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Growing Use of Heat Pumps Beyond Traditional HVAC Applications | +2.3% | National – urban centres | Medium term (2–4 years) |
| Implementation of Government Policies and Initiatives to Promote Energy-Efficient Heating and Cooling Systems | +1.7% | National – major cities | Medium term (2–4 years) |
| Rapid Urbanisation and Construction of New Buildings | +1.3% | Key metro regions (e.g. Jakarta, Surabaya, Bandung) | Long term (≥4 years) |
| Reduction in Cost and Improved Performance of Heat Pump Technology | +1.4% | Nationwide, especially in regions with strong supply chains | Medium term (2–4 years) |
| Electrification of Heating Driven by Power Sector Decarbonisation | +1.2% | Regions with growing renewable electricity penetration | Medium to long term (3–5 years) |
| Rising Energy Prices and Demand for Operational Cost Savings | +1.0% | Urban and peri-urban areas with high electricity usage | Short to medium term (1–3 years) |
| Source: Mordor Intelligence | |||
Growing Use of Heat Pumps Beyond Traditional Heating and Cooling Applications
Heat pumps are migrating from comfort cooling into food processing, hospitality, and light industry, where they reclaim waste heat for simultaneous heating and chilling, trimming energy use by up to 90%.[2]International Energy Agency, “The Future of Heat Pumps – Executive Summary,” International Energy Agency, iea.org Industrial manufacturers such as Mayekawa now supply units optimized for Indonesia’s seafood and poultry sectors.[3]Mayekawa, “Product – Heat Pumps,” Mayekawa, mayekawa.co.id This multi-service potential underpins a 27% CAGR forecast for domestic hot water systems, signalling broader acceptance of the technology’s efficiency edge.
Implementation of Government Policies and Initiatives to Promote Energy-Efficient Systems
National energy‐intensity targets and green building standards are nudging developers toward electrified HVAC. Jakarta’s updated green building code awards extra points for high-COP heat pumps, pushing adoption in commercial towers and public hospitals. At the policy level, heat pumps are documented as a core measure for meeting Indonesia’s 2030 emission-reduction goals. The regulatory tilt is backed by draft incentives that would cut import duties on key components.
Rapid Urbanisation and Construction of New Buildings
Indonesia adds more than 1 million urban residents each year, fuelling a surge in apartments, malls, and transit hubs. New structures account for 62% of installations because builders can integrate piping and controls at the design stage, saving labour and space. International green building certifications further accelerate uptake by rewarding high-efficiency HVAC choices. Consequently, air-source units are standard specifications in mid-rise housing, while hotels along coastal cities test water-source variants to tap nearby seawater for higher COPs.
Reduction in Cost and Improved Performance of Heat Pump Technology
Heat pump technology is witnessing growth, driven by reduced costs and enhanced performance. With over a million people moving to urban areas each year, there's a surging demand for efficient HVAC systems in apartments, malls, and transit hubs. Notably, about 62% of heat pump installations are in new buildings. Integrating these systems during the design phase not only streamlines the process but also minimizes labor and spatial demands. Moreover, international green building certifications are spurring this trend, incentivizing the adoption of high-efficiency solutions. In mid-rise housing, air-source heat pumps have become the norm. Meanwhile, coastal hotels are turning to water-source variants, harnessing seawater for improved Coefficient of Performance (COP) and energy savings.
Restraints Impact Analysis
| Restraint | (~) % Impact on CAGR Forecast | Geographic Relevance | Impact Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Installation complexity and cost | -1.0% | National – rural higher | Short term (≤ 2 years) |
| Limited public awareness | -0.7% | Outside tier-one cities | Medium term (2–4 years) |
| Technician shortage | -0.5% | Beyond Java | Long term (≥ 4 years) |
| Source: Mordor Intelligence | |||
Difficulties in Installation and High Installation Cost
Ground-source units need drilling rigs and geological expertise that remain scarce. Total installed costs can be triple those of split ACs, deterring mass residential adoption despite lower lifecycle bills. Manufacturers respond with pre-charged, plug-and-play hydraulic modules that trim labour hours by 40%, yet high upfront expenses still slow penetration beyond prosperous urban districts.
Limited Public Awareness
Outside megacities many consumers equate heat pumps solely with heating, overlooking their cooling and hot water functions suited to the tropics. Misperceptions around performance and payback extend to contractors, limiting referral sales. Industry associations run roadshows and demo homes, but behaviour change is gradual, particularly where credit options for efficiency upgrades are limited.
Segment Analysis
By Type: Air-Source Dominates While Water-Source Surges
Air-source models captured 78% of the Indonesia heat pump market in 2024, driven by simple installation and suitability for humid climates. The segment benefits from a rapid refresh of inverter technology and R32 refrigerant adoption that raises seasonal efficiency by up to 15%. Consequently, the Indonesia heat pump market size for air-source units is projected to preserve leadership as volume scales across residential and light-commercial premises.
Water-source heat pumps, although niche, post a 6.9% CAGR forecast through 2030 by exploiting rivers, lakes, and seawater in hospitality and industrial estates. Their rising share reflects hotel chains striving for lower operating costs and industrial users capturing waste heat to meet boiler load. This momentum signals widening acceptance of systems beyond the ubiquitous split AC, diversifying the Indonesia heat pump industry’s technology mix.
Note: Segment shares of all individual segments available upon report purchase
By Rated Capacity: Mid-Range Units Lead While Small Systems Accelerate
Units rated 10–20 kW held 35% Indonesia heat pump market share in 2024 as they align with multi-room homes and small offices. These mid-capacity models balance price and performance, winning favour among developers targeting middle-income buyers. The <10 kW bracket posts the swiftest 6.2% CAGR through 2030, reflecting a switch toward single-dwelling solutions and modular clusters that step-up capacity only when zones call for it.
Larger categories serve malls, hospitals, and factories, but adoption hinges on capital budgets and technical staffing. Vendors now bundle multiple compact units in parallel, creating scalable arrays that out-perform single monoliths while easing maintenance. This configuration appeals to facilities seeking redundancy without oversizing any one component, a growing theme in the Indonesia heat pump market.
By Application: Cooling Dominates While Hot Water Surges
Space cooling accounted for a 60% slice of the Indonesia heat pump market size in 2024, mirroring year-round demand in the archipelago’s equatorial climate. Yet domestic hot water exhibits a 6.7% CAGR outlook as consumers recognize that a single outdoor unit can supply both chilled and heated circuits with higher efficiency than separate electric heaters.
Pool heating, process drying, and other niche uses collectively edge higher as businesses hunt for operational savings and carbon cuts. Integrated control platforms simplify switching between modes, lifting utilisation rates and shortening payback periods, which further propels the diversification of Indonesia heat pump applications.
By End-User Vertical: Residential Leads While Institutional Accelerates
The residential sector accounted for 48% of 2024 installations, thanks to easier financing options via developer packages and micro-credit schemes. Volume housing prototypes now specify inverter air-source units as standard, cementing their role in middle-class lifestyles. The institutional category, including schools, clinics, and government buildings, logs a 6.2% CAGR as public procurement attaches energy-performance clauses to construction tenders.
Commercial premises, notably hotels and offices, strive for efficiency to reduce electricity bills that can account for over 40% of operating costs. In the industry, breweries and dairy processors are piloting high-temperature units to displace steam boilers, signaling fresh demand pockets that will slowly lift the Indonesian heat pump industry beyond buildings alone.
By Installation Type: New Builds Dominate While Retrofits Gain Momentum
New construction captured 62% of 2024 deployments, reflecting simpler planning and coordinated trades at the shell-and-core stage. Main contractors integrate refrigerant piping within walls and roofs, avoiding later disruption. Retrofit volume is now climbing at 6.8% CAGR as owners of ageing apartments and hotels chase 30-50% electricity savings and stealth climate credentials.
Manufacturers respond with slim hydronic modules and flexible line-sets that fit within existing risers, halving installation time. Such innovations slice soft-costs and widen the total addressable retrofit pool, bolstering the Indonesia heat pump market outlook.
By Sales Channel: Distributors Lead While E-Commerce Disrupts
Traditional distributor–installer chains held 55% of 2024 revenue, providing the hands-on sizing, site assessment, and after-sales services crucial to long-lived capital goods. Yet Indonesia’s flourishing online marketplaces are drawing do-it-yourself landlords and small businesses, fuelling a 6.3% CAGR for e-commerce. Platforms showcase side-by-side performance metrics, nudging buyers toward premium COP models.
Manufacturers nurture hybrid approaches: Daikin’s web portal routes leads to certified dealers, merging digital reach with in-person expertise. Direct sales remain confined to large industrial projects where bespoke engineering warrants straight OEM involvement.
Geography Analysis
Java dominates Indonesia heat pump adoption, driven by dense urbanisation, reliable power grids, and a skilled installer base. Jakarta’s office towers, retail complexes, and upscale condominiums collectively represent the largest single market cluster. Surrounding cities, such as Bandung and Surabaya, extend the urban corridor, sustaining dealer networks and spare parts logistics that reinforce growth.
Secondary hubs, including Medan and Makassar, are registering faster percentage gains as provincial governments upgrade hospitals and campuses under green-procurement mandates. Coastal tourism belts use seawater heat pumps in beachfront resorts, capitalising on stable source temperatures to boost COPs beyond 5.
Outside Java, adoption varies with electricity reliability and income levels. Sumatra’s industrial estates show early uptake for process heat recovery, while Kalimantan’s mining camps rely mainly on diesel or split ACs due to grid constraints. Local manufacturing, such as Sharp’s Karawang plant, lowers shipping costs to eastern provinces, progressively unlocking those geographies.
Competitive Landscape
The Indonesia heat pump market hosts a moderately fragmented field. Global brands Daikin, Mitsubishi Electric, and Viessmann leverage R&D heft and inverter mastery to anchor the premium tier. Regional names such as Panasonic, Sharp, and Gree focus on price-competitive air-source lines designed for humidity resilience. Market rivalry is intensifying as OEMs add local production: Daikin’s Cikarang plant, operational since 2024, reduces import duties and cuts lead time to under three weeks.
Differentiation pivots on energy ratings, low-GWP refrigerants, and IoT connectivity that feeds predictive maintenance dashboards. Suppliers bundle turnkey packages with rooftop solar and battery storage, addressing building owners’ desire for integrated decarbonisation pathways. Service networks are a second battleground; companies invest in installer academies and 24-hour parts depots to mitigate the technician shortfall that hampers reliability perceptions.
White-space opportunities lie in industrial high-temperature pumps above 90 °C, where only a handful of suppliers currently operate. Partnerships between OEMs and EPC contractors are emerging to customise modular skids for food, beverage, and textile factories. This cross-sector fertilisation signals a gradual shift from comfort cooling into process heat a trend that can restructure competitive positions over the next decade.
Indonesia Heat Pump Industry Leaders
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Daikin Industries Ltd.
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Mitsubishi Electric Corp.
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Panasonic Heating & Cooling Solutions
-
Fujitsu General Ltd.
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Johnson Controls-Hitachi Air Conditioning
- *Disclaimer: Major Players sorted in no particular order
Recent Industry Developments
- May 2025: Daikin began mass production at its first Indonesian residential AC factory, enabling faster delivery of R32 inverter units and reinforcing supply-chain localisation. The move seeks to capture surging mid-range residential demand while hedging against import volatility.
- April 2025: Systemiq published “Better Air, Better Indonesia,” spotlighting industrial heat pumps as a lever to slash Jakarta’s PM2.5 emissions by 92%. The analysis underpins city-level clean-air policies that could stimulate industrial segment uptake.
- March 2025: Energy Transitions Commission released a zero-carbon buildings roadmap stressing heat pumps’ 3-4× efficiency over gas boilers. The report is likely to shape upcoming national building codes favoring electrified HVAC.
- November 2024: Johnson Controls expanded its technician academy, doubling annual graduate capacity to mitigate the installer bottleneck that restrains Indonesia heat pump market growth.
Research Methodology Framework and Report Scope
Market Definitions and Key Coverage
Our study defines the Indonesia heat pump market as all electrically driven air-source, water-source, and ground-source units up to 30 kW that are factory-built and sold for space conditioning or sanitary hot-water duties in residential, commercial, institutional, and light-industrial buildings across the archipelago.
Scope exclusion: Single-function electric resistance heaters and heat-pump components embedded in household appliances (e.g., tumble dryers) lie outside this scope.
Segmentation Overview
- By Type
- Air-Source
- Water-Source
- Ground-Source (Geothermal)
- Others (Hybrid, Exhaust-Air)
- By Rated Capacity (kW)
- < 10 kW
- 10-20 kW
- 20-50 kW
- 50-100 kW
- > 100 kW
- By Application
- Space Heating
- Space Cooling
- Domestic / Sanitary Hot Water
- Others (Pool Heating, Process Heating, and Cooling)
- By End-User Vertical
- Residential
- Commercial
- Industrial
- Institutional
- By Installation Type
- New Build
- Retrofit / Replacement
- By Sales Channel
- Direct (OEM to End-User)
- Distributor / Installer Network
- E-Commerce
Detailed Research Methodology and Data Validation
Primary Research
To ground assumptions, Mordor interviewed HVAC contractors, national distributors, and facility managers in Java, Sumatra, Kalimantan, and Sulawesi. Conversations focused on annual unit off-take, installation mix, prevailing margins, and regulatory bottlenecks. Short online surveys with residential installers validated adoption rates and price dispersion uncovered in desk work.
Desk Research
Mordor analysts began with statutory data from the Ministry of Energy & Mineral Resources, Statistics Indonesia building-permit files, and ASEAN Centre for Energy policy trackers, which map the addressable building stock and efficiency mandates. Monthly import flows under HS 841861/841869 from Indonesia Customs, patent analytics retrieved through Questel, and price trends gathered via Dow Jones Factiva newsfeeds supplied the quantitative spine. Company 10-Ks, distributor presentations, and trade-association notes such as GAPENSI then helped us benchmark selling channels and average system capacities. The sources illustrated here are indicative; many additional publications were reviewed for cross-checks and clarifications.
Market-Sizing & Forecasting
A top-down construct starts with domestic production plus net imports, which are then adjusted for average capacity and channel mark-ups to derive 2024 value. Results are pressure-tested with selective bottom-up roll-ups of supplier shipments and sampled ASP × volume estimates. Key model drivers include new dwelling completions, commercial floor-space starts, electricity-tariff trajectories, building-code efficiency milestones, and subsidy envelopes announced in the National Energy Policy. Forecasts (2025-2030) stem from multivariate regression blended with ARIMA seasonality to capture monsoon-linked cooling demand, and scenario analysis mirrors policy or tariff swings flagged by our primary respondents. Data gaps on informal refurbishments are bridged by applying calibrated penetration ratios derived from installer interviews.
Data Validation & Update Cycle
Each iteration passes three tiers of review: automated variance scans, peer analyst checks, and senior sign-off. We reconcile model outputs with import paperwork, grid-connection statistics, and manufacturer guidance; anomalies trigger re-calls to field experts. The report refreshes annually, with mid-cycle tweaks if policy shocks or major plant launches occur.
Why Mordor's Indonesia Heat Pump Baseline Commands Confidence
Published market values vary because studies diverge on product mix, price ladders, and refresh cadence. We anchor our baseline to verifiable trade data, broaden it with domestic assembly counts, and apply moderate uptake curves that mirror real-world installation capacity.
Key gaps arise when some publishers exclude locally assembled split systems, assume uniform ASP compression across sizes, or stretch compound growth from limited installer polls. Mordor's balanced view, updated every year and re-ratified with on-ground voices, avoids both under-scoping and headline-grabbing growth leaps.
Benchmark comparison
| Market Size | Anonymized source | Primary gap driver |
|---|---|---|
| USD 1.34 B (2025) | Mordor Intelligence | |
| USD 0.63 B (2024) | Regional Consultancy A | Counts import value only; omits domestic assembly and aftermarket replacements |
| USD 1.30 B (2024) | Trade Journal B | Focuses on residential installs, ignores commercial retrofits and uses installer price lists without tariff normalization |
In short, Mordor's disciplined scope selection, dual-source modelling, and yearly refresh give decision-makers a dependable, transparent baseline they can reproduce with publicly verifiable signals.
Key Questions Answered in the Report
1. What is the projected value of the Indonesia heat pump market by 2030?
The Indonesia heat pump market size is forecast to reach USD 1.84 billion by 2030.
2. Which heat pump type leads the market today?
Air-source heat pumps dominate with 68% revenue share owing to simpler installation and climate suitability.
3. Why are water-source heat pumps growing so quickly?
They leverage stable water temperatures for higher efficiency and are favored in hotels and coastal industries, driving a 6.9% CAGR outlook.
4. How significant is the retrofit opportunity?
While new builds still account for 62% of installations, retrofits are rising at 6.8% CAGR as building owners pursue lower operating costs.
5. What is the main barrier to wider adoption?
High upfront installation expenses and a shortage of trained technicians remain the chief hurdles, particularly outside major cities.
6. Which sales channel is expanding the fastest?
E-commerce leads with a 6.3% CAGR as online platforms make specifications and pricing more transparent for buyers.
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