Ireland Heat Pump Market Size and Share
Market Overview
| Study Period | 2019 - 2030 |
|---|---|
| Base Year For Estimation | 2024 |
| Forecast Data Period | 2025 - 2030 |
| Market Size (2025) | USD 279.20 Million |
| Market Size (2030) | USD 347.20 Million |
| Growth Rate (2025 - 2030) | 4.45% CAGR |
| Market Concentration | Low |
Major Players
*Disclaimer: Major Players sorted in no particular order Image © Mordor Intelligence. Reuse requires attribution under CC BY 4.0. |
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Ireland Heat Pump Market Analysis by Mordor Intelligence
The Ireland heat pump market stands at USD 279.2 million in 2025 and is expected to reach USD 347.2 million by 2030, reflecting a 4.45% CAGR across 2025–2030. Steady policy support, the phase-out of fossil-fuel boilers in new dwellings, and grant-backed retrofits are guiding the market toward the government’s target of 400,000 residential installations by 2030. Rapid digitalisation of sales, growing high-temperature industrial applications, and a stronger push for natural refrigerants are reshaping competitive strategies. At the same time, installer shortages and raw-material price swings remain key constraints even as a 9% VAT rate, starting January 2025, improves customer economics. Ireland’s strong orientation toward grid decarbonisation has also elevated demand-response features, positioning smart heat pumps as flexible assets that can balance an increasingly renewable electricity system.
Key Report Takeaways
- By type: Air-source units held 73% of the Ireland heat pump market share in 2024 while geothermal solutions are projected to grow at a 5.20% CAGR through 2030.
- By rated capacity: <10 kW systems accounted for 62% of the Ireland heat pump market size in 2024; 50–100 kW units are forecast to expand at a 5.50% CAGR during 2025–2030.
- By application: Space heating captured 69% of the Ireland heat pump market share in 2024, whereas domestic hot-water systems are advancing at a 5.80% CAGR to 2030.
- By end-user vertical: Residential installations represented 72% of the Ireland heat pump market size in 2024, while the industrial segment shows the fastest 5.30% CAGR for 2025–2030.
- By installation type: Retrofits led with 65% Ireland heat pump market share in 2024; new builds are rising faster at a 5.90% CAGR to 2030.
- By sales channel: Installer networks contributed 55% of 2024 revenue, whereas e-commerce turnover is growing at an 6.10% CAGR through 2030.
Ireland Heat Pump Market Trends and Insights
Drivers Impact Analysis
| Driver | (~) % Impact on CAGR Forecast | Geographic Relevance | Impact Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rising energy prices boosting efficiency payback | +1.2% | National with stronger impact in urban areas | Medium term (2–4 years) |
| Smart-tariff demand-response integration | +0.8% | National with early adoption in Leinster | National with early adoption in Leinster |
| Electrification of off-grid oil-fired homes | +1.0% | Rural areas, notably Connacht and Ulster | Medium term (2–4 years) |
| Supportive SEAI grants and tax incentives | +1.4% | National | Short term (≤ 2 years) |
| Source: Mordor Intelligence | |||
Rising Energy Prices Boosting Efficiency Payback
Sharp fluctuations in oil and gas quotes have compressed the break-even period for heat pumps, making their lifecycle economics more persuasive for homeowners. SEAI’s 2024 statistical review shows that heat pumps already supplied 28.9% of renewable heat in 2023, up from 22.4% two years earlier. Installers now lead with cost-saving calculators rather than solely environmental arguments, broadening appeal to budget-conscious households. Supply-chain volatility is also accelerating the move to natural refrigerants; a County Meath retrofit switched from R410A to R290 when the former’s price spiked by 42%, trimming lifetime running costs by 15% while cutting global-warming potential.
Smart-Tariff Demand-Response Integration
Ireland’s target of 80% renewable electricity by 2030 calls for flexible demand. Time-of-use tariffs, enabled by 1.3 million smart meters already deployed, allow heat pumps to pre-heat homes during off-peak hours. A 120 kW system in Dublin’s Docklands aligned its operation with half-hourly price signals and saved USD 16,159 in 2024 power costs while aiding grid stability. Consumer research indicates high willingness to adopt smart tariffs once transparent rate structures are presented.
Electrification of Off-Grid Oil-Fired Homes
Nearly 500,000 Irish homes still rely on oil, with rural counties holding the highest concentration . SEAI surveys show that owners of boilers older than ten years become notably receptive to heat pumps when presented with lifetime savings. A County Galway community conversion cut average household heating bills by 42% and carbon by 5.6 tonnes per dwelling after shifting from oil to air-source systems. Copper price volatility added USD 429 per installation in 2024, pushing manufacturers toward aluminum heat exchangers that lower both cost and weight.
Supportive SEAI Grants & Tax Incentives
Household grants of up to EUR 6,500 (USD 7,345) cover half of a typical installation cost and have shortened payback periods to under eight years for many properties. Budget 2025 extends momentum by lowering VAT on heat pumps to 9% and earmarking USD 530 million of carbon-tax proceeds for energy upgrades. [1]Chartered Accountants Ireland, “Budget 2025 Energy Measures,” charteredaccountants.ie Updated heat-loss indicator thresholds introduced in January 2025 make thousands more semi-detached homes grant-eligible. Grant applications in County Cork showed a 7% decrease in average installed cost during 2024, despite commodity inflation, as competition among installers widened.
Restraints Impact Analysis
| Restraint | (~) % Impact on CAGR Forecast | Geographic Relevance | Impact Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|
| High up-front installation cost vs. gas | -0.9% | Urban areas with gas networks, mainly Leinster | Short term (≤ 2 years) |
| Shortage of certified installers | -1.1% | National, more severe in rural regions | Medium term (2–4 years) |
| Rural distribution-grid capacity limits | -0.6% | Rural areas, chiefly Connacht and Ulster | Long term (≥ 4 years) |
| Noise and aesthetic concerns in dense housing | -0.4% | Urban areas, especially Leinster | Short term (≤ 2 years) |
| Source: Mordor Intelligence | |||
High Up-front Installation Cost vs. Gas
A standard 8 kW air-source heat pump costs EUR 12,000–28,000 (USD 13,560–31,640) to fit, roughly twice the bill for a replacement gas boiler. SEAI behavioural data show homeowners with functioning boilers value heat pumps EUR 1,921 below break-even, signalling resistance until failure is imminent. Semiconductor shortages drove controller prices 18% higher in early-2024, and copper added another 7%, lifting quotes in a North Dublin estate by USD 1,639 and trimming acceptance rates from 42% to 36%. State-backed low-interest loans aim to soften sticker shock, yet psychological hurdles remain in areas well served by cheap gas.
Shortage of Certified Installers
Meeting the Climate Action Plan target requires about 290 new installers annually, yet only 150 joined the register in 2024 atlantictechnologicaluniversity.ie. SEAI now offers EUR 500 (USD 565) toward training to speed accreditation. A Galway office conversion ran four months late and USD 31,640 over budget after crews were re-routed from Dublin, illustrating cost escalation from labour scarcity. New training centres by Stiebel Eltron and Grant aim to expand the talent pool while deepening brand loyalty.
Segment Analysis
By Type: Air-Source Dominates Amid Geothermal Growth
Air-source models controlled 73% of 2024 sales, reflecting their lower capital cost and Ireland’s mild winters. This segment remains the mainstay of the Ireland heat pump market as households seek easier retrofits that avoid major ground works. The Ireland heat pump market size for air-source units is projected to rise steadily alongside favourable grants and tighter building codes. Geothermal systems, while smaller in count, show a 5.20% CAGR through 2030 as technological gains broaden the range of viable soil conditions.
Market leaders now differentiate through refrigerants. Grant’s Aerona 290 series employ R290 with a GWP of 3, aligning with EU-level F-gas curbs. Dublin Airport is assessing a 7–10 MW geothermal loop to serve terminal and airfield buildings, signalling potential for large-scale ground-source adoption. Hybrid solutions are emerging, such as a County Kerry hotel that substituted part of its planned borehole array with air-source units when drilling quotes jumped 22% because of steel price hikes; the shift trimmed capital by USD 197,750 while retaining most of the energy-savings forecast.
Note: Segment shares of all individual segments available upon report purchase
By Rated Capacity: Small Systems Lead While Commercial Segment Accelerates
Residential-sized units under 10 kW represented 62% of revenue in 2024, underscoring the retrofit wave in semi-detached houses that dominate Ireland’s housing stock. The Ireland heat pump market share in this band is likely to taper gradually as larger commercial and multifamily projects scale up. The 50-100 kW bracket grows fastest, at 5.50% CAGR, propelled by supermarkets, offices, and district schemes.
Industrial incentives now refund 40% of capital for heat pumps within the Support Scheme for Renewable Heat. Ulster University’s 200 °C prototype widens process-heat use cases. A County Cork food processor replaced a gas boiler with an 870 kW unit, trimming annual energy outlay by USD 211,310 and eliminating 720 tonnes of carbon while navigating a 14% rise in aluminum exchanger costs mid-build.
By Application: Space Heating Predominates While Hot Water Accelerates
Space-heating demand delivered 69% of 2024 revenues, mirroring boiler-replacement activity. Domestic hot-water applications, however, expand at a 5.80% CAGR to 2030 as cylinder-integrated heat pumps enter the mainstream. Smart controls that pre-heat storage during off-peak periods have demonstrated 27% running-cost cuts in a Waterford apartment block retrofitted with a central plant in 2024.
Emerging recovery loops now capture waste heat to supply low-temperature process lines or pool heating, creating secondary gains for installations that might once have met space-heating duties alone.
Note: Segment shares of all individual segments available upon report purchase
By End-User Vertical: Residential Base Expands While Industrial Grows Fastest
Residential secured 72% of 2024 shipments, buoyed by grants covering half of typical install bills. Yet the industrial segment, advancing at 5.30% CAGR, is now Ireland’s fastest as high-temperature units become commercially proven. A pharmaceutical site in County Kildare recorded a 3.2-year payback on USD 1.36 million invested, despite a 32% refrigerant-price surge during commissioning.
Commercial landlords accelerate electrification to raise BER ratings that underpin rental premiums, while public-sector decarbonisation frameworks push schools and hospitals toward heat-pump tenders backed by EXEED grants of up to USD 3.39 million.
By Installation Type: Retrofits Dominate While New Builds Grow Faster
Retrofits captured 65% of 2024 turnover as the state pursues carbon cuts in standing stock. New-build demand grows 5.90% a year, lifted by the Nearly Zero Energy Building code that all but bans fossil boilers in post-2019 homes. Expanded heat-loss thresholds in January 2025 widen grant access but still require insulation works, adding complexity to some retrofit budgets.
A Limerick social-housing project upgraded 64 units from D-rated to B1 after fabric upgrades and air-source installs cut consumption 62%. When insulation prices jumped 17% the team reordered measures to protect cashflow, yet found retrofit installs cost 23% more than new-build equivalents because of legacy-pipe adjustments.
Note: Segment shares of all individual segments available upon report purchase
By Sales Channel: Installer Networks Prevail While E-Commerce Surges
Installer-led distribution retained 55% of 2024 revenue as consumers value turnkey service for technical choices. The fastest growth sits online, with an 6.10% CAGR, as configuration engines simplify sizing and quote comparisons. A Dublin distributor’s web tool lifted lead volume 68% and compressed sales cycles by 15 days, although 87% of customers still booked in-home surveys before final sign-off, confirming a hybrid path rather than pure online self-service.
Geography Analysis
Leinster commanded 42% of 2024 sales, leveraging dense housing stock, higher disposable income, and a well-developed installer community independent.ie. Dublin Airport’s 7–10 MW geothermal feasibility study further underlines the region’s appetite for larger projects dublinairport.com. Yet the capital’s terraced streets introduce planning sensitivities that add acoustic-screen costs.
Connacht posts the swiftest 5.30% CAGR for 2025–2030 as grant-aided electrification replaces oil in off-grid properties. Atlantic Technological University’s new SEAI-accredited course is adding local technicians, and a County Mayo cluster project cut per-home install pricing 14% thanks to bulk procurement atu.ie. Alternative mounting systems offset a 19% steel-price lift, proving agile sourcing can tame material inflation.
Munster benefits from mild winters that raise seasonal performance factors, while Ulster’s cross-border context invites UK grant stacking for eligible homes near the boundary. A County Cork riverside hotel installed a 280 kW water-source unit and saved 76% in fuel costs even as corrosion-resistant parts lifted capital by USD 36,160. These regional stories highlight how climate, policy overlap, and supply conditions produce distinct adoption curves within the same national framework.
Competitive Landscape
The Ireland heat pump market is moderately fragmented, hosts domestic champions such as Grant Engineering and Glen Dimplex alongside global brands including Mitsubishi Electric, Samsung, Panasonic Holdings Corporation. Market share remains moderately fragmented; the five largest vendors hold nearly 40%, prompting technology-led differentiation. Glen Dimplex is consolidating manufacturing to its Newry site after a 70-job cut in Dunleer, aiming to concentrate low-carbon product expertise while trimming fixed costs.
Stiebel Eltron opened a Dublin regional HQ and training hub in February 2025, signalling a service-centric approach that tackles the installer bottleneck while securing channel loyalty. [2]Stiebel Eltron, “New Dublin Headquarters for Renewable Heating,” matheson.com Grant’s March 2025 rollout of Aerona 290 underlines domestic capacity for R&D that aligns with local weather and refrigerant legislation. Mitsubishi Electric partners directly with training providers and requires contractor accreditation, locking installers into its specification ecosystem.
Price pressure from falling European gas quotations in 2023 squeezed margin for many producers; Daikin nonetheless posted record group turnover of USD 31.64 billion in fiscal-2023 and launched a modular propane-based platform in March 2025. [3]Daikin Europe, “Daikin Introduces Propane Heat Pump,” daikin.eu Firms now bundle remote monitoring, demand-response algorithms, and financing support, expanding beyond equipment sales toward service subscriptions that stabilise revenue streams.
Ireland Heat Pump Industry Leaders
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Glen Dimplex
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Grant Engineering
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LG electronics Inc.
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Trane Technologies Plc
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Johnson Controls International Plc
- *Disclaimer: Major Players sorted in no particular order
Recent Industry Developments
- June 2025: EVHACS, an Irish technology firm, has teamed up with Mitsubishi Electric to unveil what they tout as the world's inaugural all-in-one heat pump solution. Targeted at both residential and commercial sectors, this innovative product merges two low-carbon technologies, streamlining the installation process. The collaboration asserts that this integration not only simplifies installations but also accelerates deployment and reduces overall system costs. The duo anticipates a global rollout for this cutting-edge technology.
- April 2025: Cook Medical is investing EUR 3 million in renewable and energy-saving technologies. The initiative includes installing a 1 megawatt ground-mounted solar PV array at the Limerick site, replacing existing chillers with 1.2 megawatts of heat pumps, upgrading to electronically commutated fans, and implementing a new energy management system. These efforts aim to offset roughly 50% of the carbon emissions from the Castletroy manufacturing facility. While the project awaits planning approval from the Limerick City and County Council, it aligns with Cook's Social Impact & Sustainability programme.
- January 2025: Grant, a leading manufacturer in heating technology, has unveiled its latest innovation: the Grant Aerona R290 air source heat pump. Designed in Ireland for the unique climates of Ireland, the Aerona R290 is setting new benchmarks in both innovation and efficiency, marking a pivotal expansion in Grant's product lineup. Aerona R290 has rolled out its versatile mono bloc heat pump, catering to a range of properties, and offering five distinct models: 4kW, 6.5kW, 9kW, 12kW, and 16kW.
- December 2024: Carrier Ventures, the investment arm of Carrier Global Corporation, has reportedly invested EUR 15 million in Exergyn, a Dublin-based company pioneering the world's first emission and refrigerant-free heat pump. Leveraging solid-state shape memory alloy (SMA) technology, Exergyn's innovation offers heating and cooling solutions without the reliance on F-gases.
- November 2024: HiiLife, a prominent technology provider in the construction sector, has secured the role of official distributor for Samsung Climate Solutions in Ireland. HiiLife is set to handle sales, design, installation, and after-sales support for Samsung's HVAC products. This move underscores a pivotal moment in HiiLife's growth strategy, solidifying its stature as a top technology provider in Ireland.
Research Methodology Framework and Report Scope
Market Definitions and Key Coverage
Our study defines the Ireland heat pump market as the annual revenue generated from sales of air-source, water-source, and ground-source heat pump units plus their associated standardized installation kits and commissioning fees across residential, commercial, industrial, and institutional premises.
Scope Exclusions: Portable room coolers, reversible air-conditioners marketed primarily for cooling, and aftermarket service contracts remain outside the sizing scope.
Segmentation Overview
- By Type
- Air-Source
- Water-Source
- Ground-Source (Geothermal)
- Others (Hybrid, Exhaust-Air)
- By Rated Capacity (kW)
- < 10 kW
- 10-20 kW
- 20-50 kW
- 50-100 kW
- > 100 kW
- By Application
- Space Heating
- Space Cooling
- Domestic / Sanitary Hot Water
- Others (Pool Heating, Process Heating, and Cooling)
- By End-User Vertical
- Residential
- Commercial
- Industrial
- Institutional
- By Installation Type
- New Build
- Retrofit / Replacement
- By Sales Channel
- Direct (OEM to End-User)
- Distributor / Installer Network
- E-Commerce
Detailed Research Methodology and Data Validation
Primary Research
Mordor analysts interviewed licensed installers, distributor managers, homeowner retrofit coordinators, and policy officials across Leinster, Munster, and Ulster. Their inputs clarified installer margin structures, grant approval lead times, and forthcoming SEAI scheme tweaks, letting us stress-test cost and uptake assumptions.
Desk Research
We began by mining authoritative public datasets such as SEAI grant uptake dashboards, Central Statistics Office dwelling-completion files, Eurostat trade codes 841861-63, and European Heat Pump Association shipment briefs, which anchor technology penetration and unit values. Complementary insight flowed from peer-reviewed journals on coefficient of performance trends, Irish Parliament committee minutes on the 9% VAT rate, and company 10-Ks that disclose local ASP bands. Subscription resources, including D&B Hoovers for producer revenues and Dow Jones Factiva for deal flow, enriched the desk review. These sources are indicative; analysts referenced many additional materials for validation and clarification.
Market-Sizing & Forecasting
A top-down model starts with SEAI-reported unit installations and Eurostat import volumes, which are then priced using weighted average selling prices gathered from installer quotes and supplier filings. Results are cross-checked through selective bottom-up roll-ups of leading vendor shipments and channel checks. Key variables, including new-build completions, retrofit approval ratios, electricity-to-gas price differentials, average grant size, and installer capacity, feed multivariate regression and scenario analysis to project demand through 2030. Where distributor data proved patchy, unit counts were gap-filled with customs entries and reconciled during expert calls.
Data Validation & Update Cycle
Outputs pass two-level analyst review, variance thresholds trigger model reruns, and anomalies are re-queried with field sources before sign-off. The report refreshes every twelve months, with interim updates if grant rules, energy prices, or major policy announcements shift materially.
Why Our Ireland Heat Pump Baseline Commands Reliability
Published estimates often diverge because firms slice the product set differently, convert currencies on assorted dates, or lock forecasts before policy changes land.
Key gap drivers include: some studies consider only Prodcom category 28251380 (excluding hybrid and monobloc units); others rely on historic turnover without updating ASP escalators; several roll global averages onto Ireland without adjusting for SEAI grants or the 400,000-unit 2030 target, whereas Mordor Intelligence integrates these local drivers and refreshes numbers annually.
Benchmark comparison
| Market Size | Anonymized source | Primary gap driver |
|---|---|---|
| USD 279.2 M (2025) | Mordor Intelligence | - |
| USD 53 M (2024) | Regional Consultancy A | Trade-code scope only, omits installation revenue |
| USD 53.7 M (2018) | Industry Association B | Pre-pandemic baseline, excludes hybrid units and services |
Taken together, the comparison shows that our carefully layered scope, live policy variables, and synchronized currency treatment offer decision-makers a balanced, transparent baseline they can retrace and update with ease.
Key Questions Answered in the Report
How large is the Ireland heat pump market today?
The Ireland heat pump market stands at USD 279.2 million in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 347.2 million by 2030 at a 4.45% CAGR.
Which product type leads the market?
Air-source units dominate with 73% of 2024 revenue, favoured for their lower installation cost and compatibility with Ireland’s mild climate.
What financial support is available for homeowners?
SEAI grants cover up to EUR 6,500 (USD 7,345) per installation, and VAT on heat pumps drops to 9% from January 2025, cutting upfront cost barriers.
Why is installer availability a bottleneck?
Meeting 2030 deployment targets needs about 290 new technicians per year, yet labour pipelines remain thin, extending project lead times and costs.
Which region will grow fastest through 2030?
Connacht shows the highest forecast growth at a 5.30% CAGR as off-grid oil-heated homes shift toward electrification backed by new installer programmes.
How are industrial users adopting heat pumps?
High-temperature models and grant schemes now enable factories to replace gas boilers, with case studies reporting sub-four-year paybacks and large carbon cuts.
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