Singapore Heat Pump Market Size and Share
Market Overview
| Study Period | 2019 - 2030 |
|---|---|
| Base Year For Estimation | 2024 |
| Forecast Data Period | 2025 - 2030 |
| Market Size (2025) | USD 466.60 Million |
| Market Size (2030) | USD 595.10 Million |
| Growth Rate (2025 - 2030) | 4.98% CAGR |
| Market Concentration | Low |
Major Players
*Disclaimer: Major Players sorted in no particular order Image © Mordor Intelligence. Reuse requires attribution under CC BY 4.0. |
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Singapore Heat Pump Market Analysis by Mordor Intelligence
The Singapore heat pump market size is estimated at USD 466.60 million in 2025 and is forecast to expand to USD 595.10 million by 2030, advancing at a 4.98% CAGR. This trajectory is supported by the city-state’s Green Plan 2030, which directs public funds toward building retrofits, district-scale cooling, and data center heat recovery projects. New carbon tax milestones, higher minimum-efficiency thresholds, and large hotel and data center construction pipelines are accelerating demand for premium-efficiency units.[1]National Climate Change Secretariat, “Singapore's Long-term Low-emissions Development Strategy,” nccs.gov.sg The rapid build-out of district-cooling networks in Marina Bay and Tengah, paired with smart-grid incentives that reward off-peak operation, further underpins growth. Meanwhile, a tightening pool of qualified technicians and persistent upfront cost barriers temper the overall pace of adoption.
Key Report Takeaways
- By type, air-source heat pumps led with 74% of the Singapore heat pump market share in 2024, while ground-source solutions are projected to register the fastest 6.1% CAGR by 2030.
- By rated capacity, 20-50 kW systems accounted for 32% of the Singapore heat pump market size in 2024; units above 100 kW are forecast to expand at 6.4% CAGR through 2030.
- By application, domestic/sanitary hot water captured a 52% share of the Singapore heat pump market size in 2024 and remains the anchor segment; space cooling deployments are poised for a 6.2% CAGR by 2030.
- By end-user vertical, the commercial sector held 56% revenue share in 2024, whereas industrial usage is set to post the quickest 6.3% CAGR to 2030.
- By installation type, retrofit/replacement projects represented 65% of value in 2024; new build integrations are on track for a 5.7% CAGR over 2025-2030.
- By sales channel, distributor/installer network controlled 67% of 2024 revenue, though e-commerce sales are climbing at 6.4% CAGR on rising residential uptake.
Singapore Heat Pump Market Trends and Insights
Drivers Impact Analysis
| Driver | (~) % Impact on CAGR Forecast | Geographic Relevance | Impact Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Surge in public sector retrofit grants | +1.2% | National (HDB estates; government buildings) | Medium term (2-4 years) |
| Mandatory energy-labelling for premium efficiency | +0.8% | National | Short term (≤ 2 years) |
| District-cooling expansion in Marina Bay and Tengah | +0.6% | Regional | Long term (≥ 4 years) |
| Data centre waste heat recovery pilots | +0.5% | Industrial zones | Medium term (2-4 years) |
| Hospitality boom driving sanitary hot water demand | +0.5% | Tourism districts | Short term (≤ 2 years) |
| Rising carbon tax trajectory | +0.4% | National | Long term (≥ 4 years) |
| Source: Mordor Intelligence | |||
Surge in Public Sector Retrofit Grants under Singapore Green Plan 2030
Public funding of USD 180 million for the HDB Green Towns program is creating a predictable pipeline of more than 15,000 residential heat pump retrofits, positioning the Singapore heat pump market as a primary beneficiary of government decarbonization targets. Parallel HVAC upgrades under government initiatives impose 15% energy reduction goals on ministries and agencies, driving additional institutional demand. The visibility and scale of these public projects reduce perceived risk for private adopters, quickening technology diffusion across commercial portfolios. Equipment suppliers report lead time reductions because bulk procurement under tender frameworks accelerates factory throughput. As completed retrofits demonstrate 30-40% utility billings, private landlords are increasingly aligning renovation schedules with rebate windows to secure co-funding. Consequently, retrofit volumes remain the anchor of the Singapore heat pump market.
Mandatory Energy-Labelling Pushing Premium-Efficiency Heat Pumps
From 2025, air-source units must post a minimum COP of 3.5 and water-source systems 4.2 under NEA’s updated MEPS, eliminating low-efficiency imports. Manufacturers responded with inverter-driven models tuned for 35°C ambient operation, and early sales data show a 35% swing toward premium-rated units following label deployment. Transparent comparison of running costs has diminished the price premium barrier for many commercial buyers. Local distributors now bundle performance guarantees that tie service contracts to efficiency outcomes, reinforcing market migration to the upper end of the product spectrum. In parallel, e-commerce marketplaces highlight star-rating badges to assist residential shoppers, widening consumer awareness and widening opportunities within the Singapore heat pump market
District-Cooling Expansion around Marina Bay and Tengah Town
SP Group and JTC have earmarked a 40% boost in island-wide district-cooling capacity by 2027, each network anchored by modular, water-source heat pump chillers that interact with thermal storage tanks. Centralization yields 30% energy savings relative to building-level chillers and reallocates rooftop space to photovoltaics or amenities. Developers of mixed-use precincts increasingly secure long-term cooling off-take agreements, guaranteeing stable plant utilization and predictable earnings for operators. These contracts improve bankability, enticing infrastructure investors into the Singapore heat pump market. As new town master plans reference district cooling as a baseline service, demand forecasts now include thermal network connections for every major greenfield site west of the central business district.
Data Centre Waste-Heat Recovery Pilots
Keppel DC and STT Global pilots upgrade 35-40°C server exhaust to 70°C process heat via high-temperature heat pumps, lifting overall facility energy efficiency and helping data halls meet <1.3 PUE thresholds. One western-zone data center now exports hot water to a neighboring food-processing plant, cutting cooling costs by 18% and displacing gas-fired heaters on the recipient site. Replication potential is high because 70% of Singapore’s 700 MW installed IT load clusters are within reach of compatible process-heat users. Suppliers of >100 kW modular systems thus prioritize this vertical, which shows the fastest revenue CAGR across the Singapore heat pump market.
Restraints Impact Analysis
| Restraint | (~) % Impact on CAGR Forecast | Geographic Relevance | Impact Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|
| High initial cost of energy-efficient systems | −0.7% | National (SMEs; private residential) | Short term (≤ 2 years) |
| Installation and technical expertise gaps | −0.5% | National | Medium term (2-4 years) |
| Limited roof and service space in high-rise buildings | −0.3% | Dense urban cores | Long term (≥ 4 years) |
| Island grid-capacity constraints during peak cooling | −0.2% | National | Medium term (2-4 years) |
| Source: Mordor Intelligence | |||
High Initial Cost of Energy-Efficient Systems
Premium-rated heat pumps command 40-80% higher capex than conventional heaters and commercial turnkey systems can exceed USD 50,000, delaying procurement among SMEs despite robust lifecycle savings. E2F grants offset up to 70% of qualifying costs, yet fewer than 40% of eligible firms apply. Financing innovations such as heat-as-a-service contracts are still nascent, keeping the upfront cost as the single largest brake on the Singapore heat pump market.
Installation and Technical Expertise Gaps
A shortfall of 800-1,200 qualified technicians lengthens project lead times by 3-6 months, inflating labor rates by 10-15%. Industrial CO₂ systems suffer the most, as scarce commissioning talent raises performance risk perceptions. Government-industry training pacts are in place, but market growth outstrips the pipeline until at least 2027.
Segment Analysis
By Type: Air-Source Leadership with Ground-Source Innovation
Air-source units delivered 74% of 2024 revenue, anchoring the Singapore heat pump market through versatile, easy-to-install solutions that perform well in year-round 26-32°C ambient conditions.[2]Building and Construction Authority, “BCA-IMDA Green Mark for Data Centres (GMDC 2024),” bca.gov.sg Variable speed compressors and smart dehumidification algorithms maintain COPs above 4 even during the hottest months. Water-source systems occupy niches in district cooling and waste-heat recovery networks, while specialized exhaust air models serve industrial drying lines.
Ground-source heat pumps— though still modest in unit volumes— are the fastest riser at 6.1% CAGR. EMA’s Low-Carbon District Energy pilot explores borehole thermal storage beneath underground carparks, proving 25% lower energy use than equivalent air-source arrays. Successful pilots at the National University campus are transferring design know-how to commercial developers, signaling an emerging diversification of the Singapore heat pump market.
Note: Segment shares of all individual segments available upon report purchase
By Rated Capacity: Mid-Range Dominance with Hyperscale Growth
Systems in the 20-50 kW range represented 32% of the Singapore heat pump market size for capacity segmentation in 2024, the sweet spot for small offices, retail blocks, and multi-family housing. Standardized installation procedures and abundant contractor familiarity continue to favor this band. Units below 10 kW equip individual HDB flats, while 50-100 kW machines serve medium-scale institutions.
Installations exceeding 100 kW capacity post the quickest 6.4% CAGR, powered by data center retrofits and district-cooling plants. A recently commissioned eastern zone server farm deployed a 1.5 MW modular array feeding adjacent industry, underscoring the scalability potential.[3]Keppel Corporation, “Sustainability Report 2023,” keppel.com As more hyperscale operators chase sub-1.3 PUE, the Singapore heat pump market finds a lucrative high-capacity frontier.
By Application: Space Heating Leadership with Space Cooling Advance
Domestic/sanitary hot water systems captured 52% of 2024 revenue, cementing their status as the economic engine of the Singapore heat pump market. PUB rebates help households and hotels realize 60-70% energy savings versus resistance heaters, and legionella-safe set-points confer hygiene benefits.
Space cooling deployments, currently smaller in value, are forecast for a 6.2% CAGR. Tengah’s district-cooling roadmap and mixed-use precincts that couple cooling with waste heat recovery exemplify new-generation designs. Enhanced dehumidification and embedded demand response controls improve indoor quality while relieving grid peaks, reinforcing the functionally diverse footprint of the Singapore heat pump market.
Note: Segment shares of all individual segments available upon report purchase
By End-User Vertical: Commercial Leadership with Industrial Acceleration
Commercial premises, such as hotels, offices, and retail complexes, delivered a 56% market share in 2024, driven by Green Mark compliance and tourism recovery. Facility management sophistication ensures correct sizing, installation, and maintenance, protecting performance yields.
Industrial demand, expanding at 6.3% CAGR, benefits from Enterprise SG co-funding and high-temperature models hitting 90°C process heat targets. A semiconductor fab that converted to heat pumps cut energy by 42% and avoided USD 180,000 in annual carbon tax, demonstrating compelling economics. The Singapore heat pump market thus broadens from comfort-centric to process-heat applications.
By Installation Type: Retrofit Dominance with New-Build Momentum
Retrofit/replacement accounted for 65% of the 2024 value as aging HVAC systems within mature real estate stock face rising energy bills and Green Mark renewal requirements. Bundled incentives and proven two to four-year paybacks keep retrofits central to the Singapore heat pump market.
New build deployments are set for 5.7% CAGR. BCA’s Super Low Energy registry now makes high-efficiency systems a design phase default, enabling deeper integration with solar, storage, and building-management platforms. This pipeline diversifies revenue beyond refurbishment cycles and embeds heat pumps into architectural norms.
By Sales Channel: Distributor Networks with E-Commerce Growth
The distributor/installer network captured 67% of 2024 sales, reflecting system complexity and strong relationships with developers and facility managers. Full-service packages spanning design to lifecycle maintenance keep this channel dominant in the Singapore heat pump market.
E-commerce, scaling at 6.4% CAGR, serves standardized residential heaters. Lazada and Shopee listings that bundle delivery and certified installer add-ons widen consumer reach. Manufacturers label “plug-and-play” packages that fit HDB service yards, simplifying adoption for individual owners while expanding digital footprints.
Geography Analysis
Singapore’s compact landmass offers a singular climate profile with consistent 26-32 °C temperatures, a condition that allows air-source heat pumps to avoid the seasonal efficiency dips observed in temperate regions. This advantage anchors 74% revenue dominance for air-source models in 2024. Elevated humidity levels further assist latent load management via built-in dehumidification cycles, enhancing occupant comfort while trimming energy use.
Urban planning density creates demand for district-scale thermal networks. Marina Bay’s operational plant and Tengah’s under-construction loop demonstrate 30-40% energy savings and 15% peak-demand shaving by sharing centralized heat pump chillers. Tight urban footprints encourage compact, stackable equipment designs, innovations now exported to other ASEAN megacities.
Data center clustering in western and eastern industrial estates accelerates the adoption of >100 kW modular heat pumps that upgrade server waste heat. These zones serve as living laboratories for high-temperature applications, drawing global suppliers to trial advanced refrigerants and control algorithms under real-world tropical conditions. The strategic role of Singapore as a demonstrator site reverberates across Southeast Asia, informing policy and procurement in neighbours seeking rapid emissions cuts without cold-climate constraints.
Competitive Landscape
Competition in the Singapore heat pump market is moderately fragmented, with global majors leveraging R&D scale while regional brands cater to cost-sensitive tiers. Johnson Controls, Daikin, and Carrier supply premium units for hotels, offices, and industrial facilities, integrating smart diagnostics and district-energy compatibility. LG and GREE position mid-priced lines tailored to HDB retrofits, competing on user-friendly controls and compact form factors.
Strategic alliances define success. Carrier’s USD 25 million supply contract for Tengah’s district-cooling loop bundles custom water-source units with on-site service guarantees. Rheem partners with specialist installers to deliver turnkey hospitality solutions, ensuring speed-to-operation for new hotels. Johnson Controls pilots a heat-as-a-service subscription, removing capex hurdles for commercial landlords and locking in multi-year service revenue.
Regulatory upgrades catalyze portfolio shifts toward top-tier efficiency. Manufacturers discontinuing sub-3.5 COP models consolidate around premium SKUs, narrowing the field and nudging market concentration upward. Yet niche opportunities—industrial process heat, geothermal pilots, and data center retrofits—remain open to engineering-centric entrants with custom-build capabilities, maintaining a balanced competitive dynamic within the Singapore heat pump market.
Singapore Heat Pump Industry Leaders
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Johnson Controls International Plc
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Rheem Manufacturing Company
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Alfa Laval AB
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Daikin Industries, Ltd.
-
LG Electronics
- *Disclaimer: Major Players sorted in no particular order
Recent Industry Developments
- December 2024: Daikin launched VRV X systems, achieving COP 4.2 at 35 °C ambient, tailored for Singapore.
- November 2024: LG Electronics has been awarded the 2025 AHR Innovation Award in the Sustainable Solutions category for its innovative LG Residential Cold Climate Heat Pump, which is designed to deliver advanced performance in colder climates.
- November 2024: Carrier partnered with JTC on a USD 25 million heat pump supply agreement for Tengah district cooling.
- November 2024: Daikin has introduced the EWYE-CZ air-to-water Inverter heat pump. This model incorporates Daikin's advanced Inverter Scroll compressor technology and uses the R-454C refrigerant, offering high efficiency while promoting environmental sustainability.
Research Methodology Framework and Report Scope
Market Definitions and Key Coverage
Our study treats the Singapore heat pump market as all factory-built air, water, and ground-source heat pump systems that deliver space conditioning or sanitary hot water across residential, commercial, and light-industrial premises. Equipment revenue includes indoor and outdoor units, controls, and integrated cylinders that are sold through direct, distributor, or e-commerce channels.
Scope exclusion: absorption chillers, portable AC units, and pure component sales (compressors, valves) are not counted.
Segmentation Overview
- By Type
- Air-Source
- Water-Source
- Ground-Source (Geothermal)
- Others (Hybrid, Exhaust-Air)
- By Rated Capacity (kW)
- < 10 kW
- 10-20 kW
- 20-50 kW
- 50-100 kW
- > 100 kW
- By Application
- Space Heating
- Space Cooling
- Domestic / Sanitary Hot Water
- Others (Pool Heating, Process Heating & Cooling)
- By End-User Vertical
- Residential
- Commercial
- Industrial
- Institutional
- By Installation Type
- New Build
- Retrofit / Replacement
- By Sales Channel
- Direct (OEM to End-User)
- Distributor / Installer Network
- E-Commerce
Detailed Research Methodology and Data Validation
Primary Research
Mordor analysts interviewed Singapore-based HVAC contractors, district-cooling operators, housing board energy managers, and component suppliers. Discussions verified installed base growth, average service life, and price erosion, and they clarified how government grants actually convert into procurement budgets across HDB estates and private offices.
Desk Research
We began with national datasets from agencies such as the Building and Construction Authority, the National Environment Agency, and Singapore Customs, which reveal annual retrofit volumes, minimum COP rules, and HS-code import values. Trade association bulletins from the Asia Pacific Heat Pump Alliance and peer-reviewed papers in Applied Thermal Engineering give technology efficiency spreads that inform coefficient of performance ranges. Company 10-Ks, investor decks, and local press releases help us track selling prices and installer margins. Subscription resources in Mordor's tool kit, including D&B Hoovers for financials and Dow Jones Factiva for deal flow, round out ownership patterns. This list is illustrative; many additional public and paid references supported data gathering and cross-checks.
Market-Sizing & Forecasting
A top-down and bottom-up blend anchors the model. We reconstruct demand from housing stock counts, Green Mark certified floor area, and data-center cooling footprints, and then validate totals with sampled distributor shipment rolls and typical ASP × volume math. Key drivers, retrofit rate of pre-1995 buildings, average COP uplift, HDB Green Towns funding cadence, electricity tariff trends, and import duty movements feed a multivariate regression that projects uptake through 2030. Gaps in bottom-up evidence are bridged by applying conservative penetration assumptions derived from primary interviews before final calibration.
Data Validation & Update Cycle
Outputs pass variance tests against historical import statistics and EMA electricity-saving targets. Senior reviewers question anomalies, and updates are issued yearly, with interim refreshes when policy incentives or large infrastructure projects materially shift demand.
Why Mordor's Singapore Heat Pump Baseline Commands Reliability
Published figures often diverge because firms choose different product baskets, valuation layers, and refresh rhythms. Our disciplined scope, visible variables, and annual audit give decision-makers a traceable baseline they can replicate with modest resources.
Benchmark comparison
| Market Size | Anonymized source | Primary gap driver |
|---|---|---|
| USD 466.6 million (2025) | Mordor Intelligence | - |
| USD 11.5 billion (2025) | Global Consultancy A | Bundles installation labor, after-sales service, and hybrid heat-pump-chiller systems, inflating value |
| USD 18 million (2024) | Industry Database B | Uses a single customs code that omits locally assembled units and retrofit kits |
| USD 5.4 billion (2024) | Market Tracker C | Counts only split-type units yet prices them at regional average ASPs that exceed Singapore transaction levels |
The comparison shows how differing scope choices and pricing assumptions create wide swings. Mordor's transparent variables, peer-review checks, and measured ASP inputs yield a balanced market view clients can trust for planning and investment decisions.
Key Questions Answered in the Report
What is the current size of the Singapore heat pump market?
The Singapore heat pump market size is estimated at USD 466.60 million in 2025 and is projected to climb to USD 595.10 million by 2030.
Which type segment holds the largest Singapore heat pump market share?
Air-source heat pumps led with a 74% share in 2024.
How fast will industrial applications grow through 2030?
Industrial deployments are forecast to expand at a 6.3% CAGR over 2025-2030.
What capacity range dominates new installations?
Units in the 20-50 kW bracket accounted for 32% of 2024 revenue, serving small-to-mid-sized commercial buildings.
How is Singapore’s carbon tax influencing adoption?
Escalating levies enhance payback economics and motivate companies to switch to heat pumps.
Are financing options available to offset high upfront costs?
Yes. Government grants cover up to 70% of qualifying expenses for SMEs, and heat-as-a-service models remove capital outlay by bundling equipment, installation, and maintenance into a subscription.
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