Thailand Heat Pump Market Size and Share
Market Overview
| Study Period | 2019 - 2030 |
|---|---|
| Base Year For Estimation | 2024 |
| Forecast Data Period | 2025 - 2030 |
| Market Size (2025) | USD 0.62 Billion |
| Market Size (2030) | USD 0.77 Billion |
| Growth Rate (2025 - 2030) | 4.50% CAGR |
| Market Concentration | Medium |
Major Players
*Disclaimer: Major Players sorted in no particular order Image © Mordor Intelligence. Reuse requires attribution under CC BY 4.0. |
|
Thailand Heat Pump Market Analysis by Mordor Intelligence
The Thailand Heat Pump Market size is estimated at USD 0.62 billion in 2025, and is expected to reach USD 0.77 billion by 2030, at a CAGR of 4.5% during the forecast period (2025-2030). Strong policy anchors such as the forthcoming Building Energy Code 2025, the 4D1E energy strategy, and a national carbon-neutrality commitment underpin the baseline outlook. Large retrofit opportunities in hotels, malls, and factories, a rapidly growing e-commerce sales channel for small residential units, and BOI tax incentives for 50–100 kW equipment sustain investor interest. Water-source innovation, uniquely enabled by Bangkok’s canal grid, differentiates Thailand heat pump market from most landlocked ASEAN peers. Supply-side constraints—chiefly limited technician capacity and fragmented installer networks—temper otherwise robust demand but simultaneously create service-driven competitive advantages for brands able to invest in training infrastructure.
Key Report Takeaways
- By type, air-source units led with 65% revenue share in 2024, while water-source systems post the fastest 4.5% CAGR through 2030.
- By rated capacity, the 50–100 kW band captured 22% share of Thailand heat pump market size in 2024 and is forecast to grow at 4.2% CAGR to 2030.
- By application, domestic hot water dominated with a 45% share of Thailand heat pump market size in 2024; space cooling is advancing at a 4.1% CAGR through 2030.
- By end-user, the residential segment held 55% Thailand heat pump market share in 2024, whereas commercial buildings recorded a 4.0% CAGR over the forecast period.
- By installation, retrofit projects controlled 60% of Thailand heat pump market size in 2024; new-build deployments accelerate at 4.1% CAGR because of mandatory BEC 2025.
- By sales channel, distributors retained 70% value share in 2024, although e-commerce sales on Shopee and Lazada grow at 4.2% CAGR.
Thailand Heat Pump Market Trends and Insights
Drivers Impact Analysis
| Driver | (≈) % Impact on CAGR Forecast | Geographic Relevance | Impact Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Growing use of heat pumps beyond traditional HVAC | +1.2% | Bangkok, Phuket, Chiang Mai | Medium term (2–4 years) |
| Government policies favouring energy-efficient systems | +0.8% | Urban cores, EEC provinces | Short term (≤ 2 years) |
| Rapid urbanisation and building activity | +0.6% | Bangkok Metro, EEC | Long term (≥ 4 years) |
| Source: Mordor Intelligence | |||
Growing Use of Heat Pumps Beyond Traditional HVAC
Domestic hot-water generation already accounts for 45% of 2024 installations in hotels that can shave monthly electricity bills by up to THB 1.2 million through integrated systems[1]Supanut Chiraparadorn, “Heat Pump Payback in Bangkok Hotels,” Azbil Thailand, Jul 14, 2024, azbil.com . Textile mills now trial high-temperature CO₂ heat pumps for process heating, aiming at scope-1 decarbonisation. Livestock barns and resort pools represent fresh niches where total cost of ownership drops once efficiency gains offset higher upfront costs. Bangkok pilot projects show integrated heat-pump-chiller loops covering cooling, hot-water, and dehumidification loads within one control stack, lowering operating expenditure and floor space. These successes are expected to cascade into wider industrial adoption as energy-price volatility elevates CFO focus on lifecycle economics.
Government Policies and Initiatives
The Building Energy Code 2025 applies to all structures above 2,000 m² and explicitly lists heat pumps among preferred technologies[2]Napat Sakunthan, “Building Energy Code Incentives for Water-Source Heat Pumps,” Climate Technology Centre & Network, Feb 17, 2024, ctc-n.org. BOI tax holidays aimed at 50–100 kW machines shorten payback for malls and offices by up to two years. A 37% energy-intensity reduction target under 4D1E embeds long-term certainty that attracts manufacturer investment in local production lines[3]Phongphan Kejmat, “Energy Intensity Reduction under 4D1E Strategy,” Institute of Energy Economics Japan, Jun 20, 2024, eneken.ieej.or.jp. Digital-building programmes, part of the same framework, reward projects that couple heat pumps with smart controls for peak-demand shaving. Cross-agency coordination remains patchy, but an updated green-finance taxonomy published by the central bank in May 2025 clarifies eligibility, unlocking concessional lending BoT.
Rapid Urbanisation and Construction
Bangkok alone adds more than 65,000 condominium units annually, most designed to meet BEC thresholds that push developers toward reversible heat-pump chillers. The Eastern Economic Corridor’s logistics parks and data centres adopt mid-scale heat-pump-assisted chillers to reduce cooling energy by roughly 18% compared to standard air-conditioning plants. Government Housing Bank’s Million Home programme seeds demand for compact 3–10 kW units in affordable housing estates, where lower operating expenses resonate with middle-class buyers. Construction growth in secondary cities such as Chiang Mai and Phuket supplements core Bangkok demand and widens the installer-training imperative.
Restraints Impact Analysis
| Restraint | (≈) % Impact on CAGR Forecast | Geographic Relevance | Impact Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|
| High installation cost and complexity | -0.9% | Nationwide, sharper in rural areas | Short term (≤ 2 years) |
| Limited public awareness | -0.4% | Residential districts outside Bangkok | Medium term (2–4 years) |
| Source: Mordor Intelligence | |||
High Installation Cost and Complexity
Ground-source systems require deeper or longer loops in Thailand’s warm soil, raising capex and complicating payback models. Retrofit projects in four-star hotels often need switch-board upgrades that add up to 8% incremental cost. Safety regulations governing flammable R-290 refrigerant add further expense for leak-detection gear, and only a limited pool of certified technicians can commission such systems. The fragmented installer landscape obliges OEMs to finance regional training hubs to ensure workmanship quality. Without stronger subsidy support, upfront economics continue to restrain mass adoption of ground- and water-source units outside Bangkok.
Limited Public Awareness
Surveys reveal that fewer than 30% of Thai homeowners can differentiate a heat pump from an inverter air-conditioner. Demonstration sites tend to be large commercial buildings; case studies in low-rise housing remain scarce. Smaller hotels in resort provinces rely on traditional gas boilers or electric resistance heaters because staff lack exposure to total-cost-of-ownership analysis. Industry associations now run roadshows with live equipment displays, but coverage is still thin relative to demand centres. Coordinated public-private campaigns are essential if Thailand heat pump market is to reach the mainstream residential consumer segment.
Segment Analysis
By Type: Water-Source Systems Lead Innovation
Air-source heat pumps held 65% share in 2024 on account of lower capital cost and compatibility with Thailand’s warm climate. Government Blue-Green Building rules provide floor-area bonuses for projects connecting to water bodies, enhancing developer returns. Ground-source variants remain niche because drilling depths drive up cost, although a Bangkok pilot posted 17.1% electricity savings over air-source peers. Hybrid systems that blend air- and water-source loops find favour in mixed-use complexes where redundant capacity improves uptime.
Beyond 2030, transcritical CO₂ machines could displace synthetic-refrigerant systems in industrial laundries and breweries once technician availability improves. Compact exhaust-air pumps capture kitchen waste heat in high-rise restaurants, generating free domestic hot water. Integrated multi-temperature solutions that couple pool heating, space cooling, and domestic hot water under one controller already operate in flagship Phuket resorts, illustrating Thailand heat pump market potential for bundled service contracts.
Note: Segment shares of all individual segments available upon report purchase
By Rated Capacity: Mid-Range Commercial Drives Growth
Thailand heat pump market size in the 50–100 kW class is expected to grow rapidly thanks to BOI tax allowances and an ideal match with mall chilled-water loads. Sub-10 kW units dominated 40% value in 2024 due to residential demand, but growth moderates as early-adopter urban households saturate. The 10–20 kW and 20–50 kW segments serve condominiums and small offices aligning with BEC compliance rules. Installers favour variable-speed compressors in the mid-range band to cope with Thailand’s diurnal load swings, which improve part-load efficiency by up to 18% compared with fixed-speed models.
Large industrial equipment above 100 kW represents single-digit share today, yet district cooling schemes under Bangkok’s urban-rail extensions could unlock multi-megawatt systems later in the decade. Manufacturers experiment with modular skid packages that facilitate phased capex and easier maintenance, anticipating industrial customer hesitancy over single-point failures.
By Application: Cooling Demand Reshapes Market Dynamics
Domestic hot water captured 45% revenue in 2024 because hotels exploit Thailand heat pump market efficiency ratios of 2.4–4.0 compared with electric heaters. Space-cooling adoption is expected to grow as condominium developers specify reversible chillers that meet both cooling and BEC-mandated water heating requirements within one plant. Space heating remains a marginal use case outside data centres and pharmaceutical cleanrooms, yet it reveals the technology’s versatility to hold 6% share in 2024. Industrial process heating uses of high-temperature pumps already feature in dyeing mills where steam boilers are partially displaced, cutting CO₂ footprints by 23% in pilot runs.
Pool heating, though small, grows in double digits in Phuket and Koh Samui resorts, where energy savings impact profitability during shoulder tourism seasons. Combined cooling-heating solutions win bids in new airports and hospitals, further embedding the perception that heat pumps are not just a hot-water appliance but a multi-utility plant within Thailand heat pump market.
By End-User Vertical: Commercial Sector Accelerates Adoption
Residential installations commanded 55% of Thailand heat pump market share in 2024, lifted by mass-housing programmes and online retail convenience. Yet commercial buildings deliver the fastest, because ESG-driven investors pressure mall and hotel operators to cut scope-1 energy use. Industrial adoption trails due to complex integration and higher temperatures, but textile sites in the EEC begin to specify 80–90 °C CO₂ units for dye baths. Government offices and hospitals steadily retrofit resistance heaters to meet public-procurement efficiency targets set under the Energy Conservation Promotion Act.
Hotel chains are the technology’s bellwether. The Athenee Hotel in Bangkok recorded 8% energy savings over four years after linking heat pumps to its building-energy-management platform. Positive case studies sharpen the commercial sector’s appetite and underpin Thailand heat pump market diversification beyond residential roots.
By Installation Type: New-Build Momentum Builds
Retrofits formed 60% of 2024 demand as properties swapped gas boilers for air-source or water-source pumps, instantly shrinking operating costs. Thailand heat pump market size for new-build projects. As BEC-compliant designs default to integrated heat-pump solutions. New-builds allow designers to optimise pipework and plantroom layouts, achieving coefficient-of-performance gains of 10–12% compared with retrofitted systems. Universities renovating dormitories recorded 55.4% energy cuts with a sub-5-year payback, validating the retrofit model.
Uncertainties lie in the skilled-labour pool. Shortage of certified installers may bottleneck BEC projects past 2026 unless accelerated training scales up in provincial technical colleges. OEMs investing early in installer academies secure first-mover loyalty, reinforcing a service-centric competitive moat within Thailand heat pump market.
Note: Segment shares of all individual segments available upon report purchase
By Sales Channel: Digital Transformation Accelerates
Conventional distributors still controlled 70% sales in 2024, valued for local warehouses, credit terms, and after-sales service. E-commerce volumes climb as Shopee and Lazada list pre-charged split-type units with bundled installation vouchers. Millennials buying condominiums increasingly trust online reviews, narrowing information asymmetry that traditionally favoured in-store showrooms. OEM webshops experiment with virtual-reality walkthroughs for equipment placement, reinforcing direct engagement.
Digital disruption remains partial. Commercial buyers still mandate site-specific designs, which require face-to-face engineering. Distributors respond by launching hybrid portals offering specification tools and technician scheduling, aiming to defend share. Thailand heat pump market therefore evolves toward an omnichannel model rather than a pure online replacement.
Geography Analysis
Bangkok Metropolitan Region anchored 2024 demand with the highest installer density and strict city energy ordinances. The region’s commercial floor space, topping 31 million m², underpins large retrofits and new malls that favour mid-range water-source units. Eastern Economic Corridor provinces—Chonburi, Rayong, Chachoengsao—post the sharpest growth as manufacturing estates electrify process heat and adopt smart-factory metrics aligned with export customers’ carbon disclosures. Central Thailand benefits from supply-chain proximity and better grid reliability, driving procurement of small residential units through e-commerce channels.
Northern hubs such as Chiang Mai observe nascent adoption in boutique hotels and co-working offices seeking differentiation through green certifications. Southern resort provinces Phuket and Surat Thani continue to specify pool-heating and domestic-hot-water systems that combat volatile electricity tariffs and diesel prices. Outlying rural districts lag because of limited installer availability and slower payback on low-usage residential loads. Government Thailand 4.0 regional funds earmark vocational-training subsidies that could rebalance the geographic spread if executed at scale.
Climate also shapes application mix. The humid south skews toward cooling-dominant reversible systems, while the cooler northern highlands evaluate low-ambient CO₂ units for agricultural processing sheds. Manufacturers tailoring marketing to regional usage patterns are more likely to gain traction as Thailand heat pump market decentralises away from Bangkok.
Competitive Landscape
Thailand heat pump market remains moderately fragmented. European brands Stiebel Eltron, Vaillant, and Viessmann leverage high perceived quality but face cost competition from Asian peers such as PHNIX and NIBE. Daikin positions itself as a one-stop provider, pairing air-source pumps with VRV air-conditioning for mixed-use developments. Technology differentiation hinges on refrigerant choices, with R-290 units offering a GWP advantage while CO2 models secure high-temperature contracts despite higher costs. Local distributors cultivate exclusive deals with OEMs to secure inventory priority amid global supply chain strains.
Service capability is an emerging battleground. Brands offering certified training and remote diagnostics reduce downtime and earn premium pricing. E-commerce entrants disrupt residential pricing but struggle with warranty fulfilment; established players counter by forming official flagship stores online to control brand narrative. Industrial prospects entice newcomers like Mayekawa, which test CO₂ booster pumps in food-processing zones to capture early-mover advantage. M&A potential rises as global manufacturers eye local assembly to mitigate import duties and qualify for BOI incentives.
Thailand Heat Pump Industry Leaders
-
Stiebel Eltron GmbH & Co. KG
-
Viessmann Climate Solutions SE
-
Glen Dimplex Group
-
WaterFurnace International Inc.
-
PHNIX Eco-Energy Solution Ltd.
- *Disclaimer: Major Players sorted in no particular order
Recent Industry Developments
- May 2025: Bank of Thailand issued updated green-taxonomy guidelines that emphasise BEC compliance, signalling lower financing costs for developers specifying heat pumps. Strategically, OEMs can co-market with lenders to bundle equipment loans, reducing buyer capex friction.
- March 2025: JETRO’s Bangkok arm released a sustainable-business catalogue featuring Azbil’s factory-energy solutions, reinforcing Japan’s soft-power push and creating joint-venture opportunities for control-integrated heat-pump systems.
- January 2025: ERIA published barrier analysis for Thai heat-pump uptake, advocating concessional finance and technician training funds. Manufacturers can leverage the report when lobbying ministries for subsidy extensions.
- April 2024: Daikin’s sustainability roadmap unveiled plans to quadruple heat-pump output by 2025 and partner with ASEAN governments on efficiency standards, signalling supply-side scale that could compress end-user prices.
Research Methodology Framework and Report Scope
Market Definitions and Key Coverage
Our study treats the Thai heat pump market as all newly manufactured, electrically driven air-source, water-source, ground-source, and hybrid units rated below and above 100 kW sold for space heating, space cooling, and sanitary hot-water service to residential, commercial, industrial, and institutional customers nationwide.
Standalone chillers, conventional air-conditioners that lack heat-pump functionality, used equipment sales, spare parts, and rental fleets are intentionally left outside the sizing scope.
Segmentation Overview
- By Type
- Air-Source
- Water-Source
- Ground-Source (Geothermal)
- Others (Hybrid, Exhaust-Air)
- By Rated Capacity (kW)
- < 10 kW
- 10-20 kW
- 20-50 kW
- 50-100 kW
- > 100 kW
- By Application
- Space Heating
- Space Cooling
- Domestic / Sanitary Hot Water
- Others (Pool Heating, Process Heating, and Cooling)
- By End-User Vertical
- Residential
- Commercial
- Industrial
- Institutional
- By Installation Type
- New Build
- Retrofit / Replacement
- By Sales Channel
- Direct (OEM to End-User)
- Distributor / Installer Network
- E-Commerce
Detailed Research Methodology and Data Validation
Desk Research
We began with public datasets from Thailand's Energy Policy and Planning Office, the Department of Alternative Energy Development and Efficiency, and Customs Department shipment codes, then matched them with building stock statistics from the National Statistical Office and macro signals from the Bank of Thailand. Industry viewpoints were widened through open literature from the ASEAN Centre for Energy, peer-reviewed HVAC journals, and patent searches via Questel. Company filings accessed on D&B Hoovers and press releases supplied price and capacity benchmarks. These sources depict energy targets, import flows, and typical installed costs that seed our demand pool. The sources mentioned illustrate, but do not exhaust, the full list our analysts reviewed.
Primary Research
Mordor analysts interviewed Thai installers, OEM sales managers, hotel engineers, and EPC contractors across Bangkok, Chiang Mai, Rayong, and Phuket. The conversations clarified real installed prices, average seasonal COP, technician availability, and adoption triggers, letting us validate secondary numbers and plug data gaps before triangulating the final model.
Market-Sizing & Forecasting
A top-down build used household counts, commercial floor space, and industrial production indices to estimate the serviceable thermal load, which is then filtered through historical penetration rates and average replacement cycles. Select bottom-up checks, customs import volumes multiplied by sampled average selling price, and distributor channel checks keep totals grounded. Key variables tracked include electricity tariff trends, Building Energy Code 2025 compliance uptake, hotel room pipeline, average unit COP, and BOI tax-incentive utilization. A multivariate regression with ARIMA overlays generates the 2025-2030 outlook; outlier years are scenario tested for tariff or construction shocks. Gap areas in bottom-up inputs, for example, undisclosed direct OEM shipments, are bridged with conservative coefficient ranges vetted by field experts.
Data Validation & Update Cycle
Outputs pass an analyst peer review, variance checks against independent heat-pump import duties and utility tariff movements, and management sign-off. We refresh the model each year; material policy or price events trigger an interim revision so clients always receive our latest view.
Why Mordor's Thailand Heat Pump Baseline Commands Confidence
Published market values often differ because firms choose dissimilar equipment scopes, distinct price assumptions, and uneven update cadences.
Key gap drivers here include whether domestic hot-water only units are counted, how retrofit subsidies are reflected, and if analyst teams roll distributor mark-ups into sale price or not. Mordor Intelligence reports current-year outcomes rather than aggressive policy-target scenarios and is refreshed annually, which keeps our baseline realistic yet timely.
Benchmark comparison
| Market Size | Anonymized source | Primary gap driver |
|---|---|---|
| USD 0.62 B (2025) | Mordor Intelligence | - |
| USD 1.07 B (2025) | Regional Consultancy A | Includes all HVAC heat-pump capable ACs plus spare-part revenue, limited primary validation |
| USD 0.14 B (2024) | Trade Journal B | Tracks only "heat pumps other than AC machines," omits retrofit and >20 kW segments |
In short, our disciplined scope selection, dual-path modelling, and annual refresh mean decision-makers can rely on Mordor Intelligence figures as the balanced, transparent baseline for Thailand's heat-pump opportunity.
Key Questions Answered in the Report
1. What is the current size of the Thailand heat pump market?
Thailand heat pump market stands at USD 0.62 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 0.77 billion by 2030.
2. Which heat pump type is growing fastest?
Water-source systems record a 4.5% CAGR because Blue-Green Building incentives reward projects tapping Bangkok’s canals.
3. Why are installation costs considered a major barrier?
Ground-source loops demand deeper drilling in Thailand’s warm soil and retrofits often need electrical upgrades, pushing upfront costs higher than payback windows for small buyers.
4. How will the Building Energy Code 2025 affect demand?
BEC 2025 mandates energy-efficient systems for buildings larger than 2,000 m², driving accelerated adoption in new offices, malls, and condominiums.
5. Which sales channel is expanding quickest?
E-commerce platforms such as Shopee and Lazada grow at 4.2% CAGR for sub-10 kW residential units, although distributors still dominate commercial deals.E-commerce platforms such as Shopee and Lazada grow at 29% CAGR for sub-10 kW residential units, although distributors still dominate commercial deals.
6. What capacity segment benefits most from BOI tax incentives?
BOI schemes specifically target 50–100 kW systems, enhancing their economics for shopping mall and office retrofits.
Page last updated on:
