United States Retail Logistics Market Size & Share Analysis - Growth Trends And Forecast (2025 - 2030)

United States Retail Logistics Market Trends and Insights

Accelerating Same-Day Delivery Expectations Reshape Network Design

Same-day and next-day delivery have become baseline service levels, with 78% of U.S. shoppers expecting receipt within 48 hours^{[1]Supply Chain Brain, “The Evolving Last-Mile Delivery Trends and Expectations of 2024,” supplychainbrain.com}. Amazon achieved 60% same-day or next-day coverage for Prime orders across major metros by March 2024. Retailers therefore abandon hub-and-spoke models, opting for regionally dispersed inventory that cuts last-mile distances and compresses fulfilment cycles. Walmart intends to have 65% of its stores serviced by automation by 2025 to support two-hour fulfilment windows. Because last-mile activities represent up to 50% of logistics cost, reliable demand forecasting and hyper-local stock placement now dictate competitive positioning.

E-Commerce Parcel Volume Growth Drives Infrastructure Expansion

Online grocery penetration is forecast to reach 21.5% of total grocery sales by 2025, versus low-single-digit pre-pandemic levels. Freight tonnage is projected to rise 42% between 2023 and 2050, largely because individual parcels replace bulk store replenishment^{[2]Federal Highway Administration, “Freight Analysis Framework Commodity Flow Forecast Study,” fhwa.dot.gov} . Retailers respond with highly automated mega-facilities: Walmart adds six fulfillment centers exceeding 500,000 sq ft, each integrating robotics for goods-to-person picking. Logistics providers expand trailer pools, cross-dock footprints, and parcel sort centers to manage escalating click-to-door volumes in the United States retail logistics market.

Micro-Fulfilment Centers Enable Hyper-Local Distribution

More than 6,600 micro-fulfilment centers (MFCs) are expected across North America by 2030, most occupying 3,000-10,000 sq ft within urban boundaries. Order processing costs fall by up to 75% due to robotic goods-to-person systems and proximity to consumers. Walmart’s dark-store pilot in Dallas and Bentonville removes in-store traffic conflicts by dedicating entire locations to online orders. Because last-mile delivery accounts for 41% of supply-chain costs, micro-nodes covering 10-15 mile radii are now integral to the United States retail logistics market.

Tech-Enabled 3PL Outsourcing Accelerates Market Consolidation

Although 94% of 3PLs reported new business wins in 2023, net industry revenue declined 12.8% year-on-year as pandemic surcharges evaporated. Customers increasingly demand end-to-end orchestration that knits transportation, warehousing, and analytics into one interface. DSV’s EUR 14.3 billion purchase of Schenker creates the world’s largest logistics entity and sets a benchmark for capability-led consolidation. Outsourced fulfilment models, therefore, anchor long-term growth in the United States retail logistics market.

Warehouse Automation Incentives Accelerate Technology Adoption

Washington, Texas, and Georgia offer 50-100% sales-tax relief on warehouse construction and material-handling equipment, lowering hurdle rates for capital projects. With warehouse labor productivity down 35% since 2015, operators pursue robotics to protect margins. Amazon scaled from 350,000 robots in 2021 to 750,000 in 2023, indicating rapid payback when volumes justify automation. Incentives magnify return on investment and hasten the diffusion of advanced technologies across the United States retail logistics market.

Driver Shortage Crisis Constrains Capacity Growth

The trucking industry could lack 160,000 drivers by 2030, with present shortfalls costing USD 95.5 million in weekly productivity^{[3]Commercial Carrier Journal, “Truck driver shortage costs freight industry USD 95.5 million weekly,” ccjdigital.com}. Turnover averages 94%, driven by lifestyle burdens and an ageing workforce. Premium pay, automation, and mode shifts toward intermodal rail are interim fixes, yet sustained shortages cap fleet capacity and slow service expansion within the United States retail logistics market.

Urban Congestion Restrictions Complicate Last-Mile

New York City expects freight tonnage to grow 68% by 2045 while tightening truck access via off-hour deliveries and zero-emission zones. Washington, D.C., introduced paid loading zones that inflate urban delivery costs and extend dwell times. Diverse municipal rules force carriers to create city-specific protocols, eroding network efficiency and complicating cost recovery in the United States retail logistics market.

Segment Analysis

By Service Type: Transportation Dominance Faces Automation-Driven Disruption

Transportation contributed 62.1% of the United States retail logistics market share in 2024, reflecting road haulage’s role in moving 72% of domestic freight tonnage. The National Highway System’s 200,000 miles sustain interstate flows along corridors such as I-80 and I-95. Yet value-added services, including kitting and packaging, posted the highest 7.3% CAGR as retailers seek integrated fulfilment. Airfreight retains niche value for electronics and fashion drops; rail and sea underpin bulk inbound flows from Asia. Warehousing, fueled by robotics and tax incentives, narrows the cost gap with transport through productivity gains. The United States retail logistics market increasingly rewards providers that orchestrate multimodal assets under data-driven control towers instead of offering stand-alone truckload capacity.

Rapid automation uptake transforms transportation economics. Autonomous yard trucks shorten gate times, vision systems raise load factors, and IoT sensors provide real-time ETAs that improve inventory velocity. As automation reduces marginal labour requirements, transportation’s share of the United States retail logistics market size will gradually cede ground to higher-margin orchestration and value-add functions.

Note: Segment shares of all individual segments available upon report purchase

By Temperature-Control Requirement: Cold Chain Infrastructure Struggles to Meet Demand

Ambient operations accounted for 68% of the United States retail logistics market size in 2024. Frozen storage, however, is projected to compound at 9.3% CAGR through 2030, outpacing chlled facilities that serve pharma and fresh produce. Consumers demanding year-round frozen convenience foods and biologics requiring sub-zero handling drive this surge. The development pipeline reached a record 9.8 million sq ft in 2022, yet still covers only 1.5% of industrial starts, reflecting construction complexity and high capital intensity.

Lineage Logistics and Americold jointly control 71% of the top-market capacity, giving them pricing power in a constrained segment. Smaller operators often choose to lease rather than build, slowing capacity additions. Advanced monitoring, liquid-nitrogen systems, and solar-assisted refrigeration help temper operating costs but require scale. Frozen infrastructure’s outsized growth will reallocate capital within the United States retail logistics market as investors pursue temperature-controlled returns.

Note: Segment shares of all individual segments available upon report purchase

By Product Type: Healthcare Logistics Commands Premium Growth

Food and beverages remained the largest product category with 28% of the United States retail logistics market share in 2024. Dense grocery networks and omnichannel ordering sustain high shipment frequencies across ambient, chilled, and frozen lines. Healthcare and pharmaceuticals exhibit the fastest 12.22% CAGR through 2030, buoyed by cell-and-gene therapies and temperature-sensitive vaccines that demand GDP-compliant handling. UPS’s CAD 2.2 billion purchase of Andlauer underscores the premium valuations attached to healthcare capability.

Electronics and apparel segments leverage MFCs for rapid replenishment but face eroding margins as dimensional-weight pricing rises. Furniture benefits from housing demand and white-glove delivery but lags overall United States retail logistics market growth due to high cube-to-value ratios. Rising biologics pipelines ensure healthcare remains the standout opportunity for providers that can guarantee validated cold chains and chain-of-custody visibility.

Geography Analysis

Georgia tops infrastructure rankings with the world’s busiest passenger airport and 70+ shovel-ready industrial sites, yet faces costly water-system upgrades that could raise municipal fees. Arizona benefits from reliable power, microchip investment, and I-10 corridor expansion that positions Phoenix as a logistics gateway to Southern California. California, Texas, Ohio, and Illinois collectively handle 29% of the national shipment value, anchored by port complexes and a mature trucking base. 

Southwest momentum rests on population inflows and reshored manufacturing that necessitate new cross-dock and regional fulfilment nodes. Texas leverages Mexico’s nearshoring boom through Laredo and El Paso gateways, encouraging 3PLs to co-locate warehousing and drayage yards. Virginia offers 50 shovel-ready sites yet contends with grid reliability that tempers cold-storage investment. Indiana’s rail density and abundant retail space attract multitenant fulfilment sites aimed at two-day nationwide delivery, bolstering its participation in the United States retail logistics market.

Interstate flows represent nearly 60% of shipment value, which underscores the need for multi-state networks that mitigate regional regulatory nuances and energy price swings. Infrastructure spending amplifies differences rather than equalising them: regions already endowed with ports, intermodal ramps, and skilled labour capture the lion’s share of incremental United States retail logistics market growth.