United States Lime Market Analysis by Mordor Intelligence
The United States lime market size is projected to reach USD 3.11 billion by 2030, advancing at a 4.5% CAGR over the forecast period, from USD 2.50 billion in 2025. Robust foodservice recovery, steady retail uptake, and resilient demand from Hispanic-origin households collectively offset structural supply gaps, keeping import volumes on an expansion path. Per-capita availability climbed to 4.27 pounds (1.94 kilograms) in 2024, a 70% increase over the past decade, underscoring the depth of consumption even as domestic groves languish. Retail scanner data show that repeat-purchase velocity accelerates each summer launch cycle, helped by beverage reformulation, which replaces high-sugar citrus substitutes with fresh lime. Near-term pricing risk from Mexican weather shocks remains, but diversified sourcing from Colombia and Peru is gradually smoothing volatility. Federal incentives for climate-smart irrigation and disease-resistant rootstock research further stabilize long-run supply expectations for the United States lime market.
Key Report Takeaways
- Imports accounted for 97% of the United States lime market size in 2024, and domestic output is forecast to grow at a 4.46% CAGR through 2030 as disease-resistant varieties mature and acreage expands.
United States Lime Market Trends and Insights
Drivers Impact Analysis
| Driver | (~) % Impact on CAGR Forecast | Geographic Relevance | Impact Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rising popularity of low-sugar citrus beverages | +0.8% | Urban centers nationwide | Medium term (2-4 years) |
| Growing Hispanic-origin population driving culinary demand | +1.2% | Southwest, Texas, and California | Long term (≥ 4 years) |
| Expansion of on-premises cocktail culture | +0.6% | Major metropolitan hospitality districts | Short term (≤ 2 years) |
| Surge in lime acreage incentivized by premium pricing | +0.4% | California, Florida, and Texas | Medium term (2-4 years) |
| Government grants for disease-resistant citrus rootstock research and development | +0.3% | Florida, California, and Texas | Long term (≥ 4 years) |
| Climate-smart agriculture tax credits for water-efficient orchards | +0.2% | California, Arizona, and Texas | Medium term (2-4 years) |
| Source: Mordor Intelligence | |||
Rising Popularity of Low-Sugar Citrus Beverages
Health-minded consumers are prompting beverage formulators to shift toward naturally tart profiles that utilize fresh lime in place of caloric sweeteners. Seasonal launch calendars reveal demand spikes in summer and holiday windows when premixed cocktails, ready-to-drink margaritas, and flavored seltzers hit shelves. Supermarket scans confirm a double-digit lift in units per store week each June–August cycle, validating lime’s rising SKU velocity. Foodservice chains mirror the trend, posting menu counts of lime-forward drinks at their highest level. As the beverage category continues to replace sugar with authentic citrus, steady throughput into bottling and bar supply chains secures medium-term volume growth for the United States lime market.
Growing Hispanic-Origin Population Driving Culinary Demand
Census updates show that the Hispanic population is projected to surpass 21% of the United States' residents by 2025, with Texas and California leading the absolute gains. Household purchase panels demonstrate per-capita lime usage is three times higher in Hispanic families than the national mean. Grocery merchandising has expanded bulk displays and cross-promotions with tortillas, avocados, and fresh pepper assortments, which amplify basket ring. The masa industry’s growth sustains institutional lime purchases for nixtamalization, and fusion restaurants utilize citrus as the acid backbone in sauces, seafood, and quick-service condiments. These demographic and culinary shifts underpin a durable, long-range lift in the United States lime market.
Government Grants for Disease-Resistant Citrus Rootstock Research and Development
The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) and the National Institute of Food and Agriculture (NIFA) have allocated USD 45 million to Emergency Citrus Disease Research grants, focusing on solutions for Huanglongbing (HLB).[1]Source: National Institute of Food and Agriculture, “USDA-NIFA Tackles Harmful Citrus Disease with USD 45 Million in Research Grants,” nifa.usda.gov Trials of Citrus Under Protective Screen Systems yield output multiples relative to open groves, and CRISPR-enabled gene edits show resistance markers promising commercial utility. Laboratory breakthroughs feed nurseries with candidate rootstocks, but widespread orchard re-planting requires multiyear cycles, hence the long-term positive drift attributed to this driver.
Climate-Smart Agriculture Tax Credits for Water-Efficient Orchards
Irrigation retrofits qualifying under the Inflation Reduction Act earn cost-share rebates that can reach 75% of the installation expense, thereby trimming payback horizons for drip and micro-sprinkler systems.[2]Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture, “Mexico: Citrus Annual,” fas.usda.gov California and Arizona producers, confronting drought allocations, have filed the bulk of Environmental Quality Incentives Program (EQIP) applications, positioning their orchards for future water resilience. Energy-efficient pumping upgrades, co-funded by the Rural Energy for America Program, lower variable costs and align with corporate carbon-accounting pledges. These incentives collectively nudge mid-term supply elasticity upward for the United States lime market.
Restraints Impact Analysis
| Restraint | (~) % Impact on CAGR Forecast | Geographic Relevance | Impact Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Citrus greening outbreaks in Florida groves | −1.1% | Florida, spillover risk in Texas and California | Long term (≥ 4 years) |
| Volatile farm-gate prices linked to Mexican supply shocks | −0.7% | Nationwide, acute impact in border states | Short term (≤ 2 years) |
| Limited cold-storage infrastructure near key ports | −0.4% | Miami, Los Angeles, and Houston | Medium term (2-4 years) |
| High labor costs amid tightening H-2A visa regulations | −0.6% | California, Florida, and Texas | Medium term (2-4 years) |
| Source: Mordor Intelligence | |||
Volatile Farm-Gate Prices Linked to Mexican Supply Shocks
Extreme weather in Veracruz and Jalisco often reduces lime size and yields, sending Free On Board (F.O.B.) spot quotes spiking, then retreating once orchards recover. Currency fluctuations compound unpredictability for the United States' buyers settling contracts in USD. Diversification toward Colombia and Peru is underway, but those origins currently lack Mexico’s 885,000 metric tons of exports. Planning uncertainty crimps forward contracting in the United States lime market until supply clusters mature outside Mexico.
High Labor Costs Amid Tightening H-2A Visa Regulations
The Adverse Effect Wage Rate under the H-2A Temporary Agricultural Workers Visa climbed faster than inflation in 2024, inflating hand-harvest costs for domestic groves by double digits.[3]Source: U.S. Department of Labor, “H-2A Temporary Agricultural Workers Final Rule,” dol.gov Compliance overhead for housing and transport additionally pinches smaller orchards. Without broader immigration reform, cost pressure may persist and dampen any near-term rebound in United States lime cultivation.
Geography Analysis
California absorbs the largest statewide volume due to dense Hispanic demographics, a robust farm-to-table restaurant scene, and proximity to Pacific trade lanes that shorten transit from Mexican ports. The state’s beverage manufacturers alone contract 150 thousand metric tons annually, reinforcing its anchor role in the United States lime market.
Texas ranks second, benefiting from land-border logistics that enable chilled trailers from Veracruz groves to reach distribution hubs within 48 hours. The state’s booming population growth fuels the expansion of quick-service chains, whose menus rely heavily on fresh lime. Warehouse data logs show an 11% compound growth in pallet turns since 2023. Additionally, state marketing boards co-fund local citrus extension services, encouraging trial plantings of disease-resistant stock, hinting at future domestic supply increments.
Florida has shifted from being a producer to a gateway node. Port Everglades now receives an increasing amount of tonnage from Colombia and Peru, destined for retailers on the Eastern Seaboard. While legacy grove infrastructure remains underutilized, cold-chain assets and transportation corridors still confer a logistical advantage should resistant cultivars prove viable. Beyond these three anchor states, secondary markets in Arizona, Nevada, and the Mid-Atlantic display high retail penetration but negligible production, relying entirely on trucked-in supply that tightens the nationwide weave of the United States lime market.
Recent Industry Developments
- June 2025: The United States established trade agreements with Thailand and Vietnam, expanding market access for fruit exporters, including lime producers. The agreements allow citrus fruits from Arizona, including limes, to be packaged in California facilities before export to Thailand, improving operational efficiency and market opportunities.
- June 2025: Colombian Tahiti lime exporters are prioritizing the United States market due to high shipping costs and logistical challenges in reaching Europe. Favorable weather and increased plantings have boosted production, but Europe’s complex cold chain and phytosanitary requirements make the United States a more viable destination.
- January 2025: The USDA expanded its specialty crop support program to USD 2.65 billion, raising the payment cap to USD 900,000. This benefits lime producers by easing marketing and transport costs tied to perishability and packaging.
United States Lime Market Report Scope
Lime is a small, lemon-shaped, greenish-yellow citrus fruit with a juicy, sour pulp, rich in ascorbic acid. It is primarily used for food and cosmetics. The study takes into account commercial lime fruit as a commodity.
The United States lime market covers production (volume), consumption (volume and value), import (volume and value), export (volume and value), and price trend analysis.
The report offers market size and forecasts in terms of value in USD and volume in metric tons for all the above segments.
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Key Questions Answered in the Report
How large is the united states lime market in 2025?
It is valued at USD 2.50 billion, with a projection of USD 3.11 billion by 2030 under a 4.5% CAGR.
Which state consumes the most limes?
California leads consumption, driven by its restaurant sector, beverage manufacturing base, and sizable Hispanic population.
What is the import share of lime in the United States?
Imports accounted for 97% of the United States lime market in 2024.
What government support programs benefit lime stakeholders?
Funding streams include the Marketing Assistance for Specialty Crops, Environmental Quality Incentives Program, and Emergency Citrus Disease Research grants.
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