United States Courier, Express, and Parcel (CEP) Market SIZE & SHARE ANALYSIS - GROWTH TRENDS & FORECASTS UP TO 2030

United States Courier, Express, and Parcel (CEP) Market Analysis

The United States Courier, Express, and Parcel (CEP) Market size is estimated at 192.8 billion USD in 2025, and is expected to reach 239.4 billion USD by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 4.42% during the forecast period (2025-2030).

The United States courier industry is undergoing significant transformation driven by infrastructure development and technological advancement. The Federal Aviation Administration is spearheading this change through substantial investments, announcing USD 427 million in grants for airport infrastructure projects across 39 states in July 2024. This initiative, part of the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law, focuses on modernizing airports with terminal expansions, runway safety improvements, and enhanced air traffic infrastructure. The development of warehousing infrastructure continues to expand, with approximately 682 million square feet of space under construction as of Q4 2022, distributed across various regions including the Northeast, Midwest, South, and Western United States.

Major industry players are strategically repositioning themselves through acquisitions and operational changes to enhance service efficiency. In April 2024, UPS secured a landmark agreement to become the primary air cargo provider for USPS, replacing FedEx's 20-year partnership. This transition demonstrates the dynamic nature of industry partnerships and the continuous evolution of courier service delivery models. Additionally, Walmart has embraced innovation in its delivery infrastructure, implementing over 40 parcel stations in stores by December 2023, with plans for further expansion throughout 2024 to enhance delivery service efficiency and customer satisfaction.

The industry is witnessing a significant shift in international trade dynamics, particularly in cross-border commerce. A notable development is Mexico's emergence as the United States' largest trading partner, surpassing China with exports valued at USD 475.6 billion in 2023, marking a 5% increase from the previous year. This shift has substantial implications for logistics service networks and delivery patterns, particularly in border regions. Amazon continues to dominate the domestic market, processing over 4.8 billion parcels in the United States in 2022, highlighting the scale of operations in the courier market.

Financial technology integration and consolidation are reshaping service delivery models in the courier express sector. The announcement of Capital One's USD 35.3 billion acquisition of Discover Financial Services in 2024 exemplifies the growing intersection of financial services and delivery networks. Similarly, in the healthcare sector, digital health startups have secured USD 5.7 billion across 266 deals in the first half of 2024, indicating strong investment in technology-driven delivery solutions. These developments are driving innovation in specialized express delivery services, particularly in sectors requiring secure and time-sensitive transportation.

United States Courier, Express, and Parcel (CEP) Market Trends

United States leads regional GDP with 86% contribution, driven by infrastructure and supply chain investments

• In September 2024, the FAA, under the US Department of Transportation, allocated USD 1.9 billion in grants for 519 projects. These projects span 48 states, Guam, Puerto Rico, and other territories, all part of the Airport Improvement Program (AIP). Additionally, USD 269 million in Supplemental Discretionary Grants for 2023 will back 62 projects at 56 U.S. airports. This competitive initiative aids airport owners and operators in enhancing the U.S. airport system. Marking its largest round yet, this fifth AIP grant cycle funds diverse projects, from airport safety and sustainability upgrades to noise reduction. The grants cater to airports nationwide, regardless of size.
• With infrastructure development and the e-commerce boom, the transportation and storage sector is set for a job surge. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) projects a 0.8% annual growth rate from 2022 to 2032, translating to nearly 570,000 new jobs. Notably, the couriers and messengers industry, alongside warehousing and storage, is expected to drive about 80% of this job growth.

The United States remained a net crude oil importer in 2022, importing about 6.28 million bpd of crude oil from 80 countries

• Gasoline prices in the US are expected to drop below USD 3 a gallon for the first time in over three years by October 2024, just before the presidential election. Lower fuel prices are mainly due to weaker demand and falling oil prices, providing relief to consumers who have faced high costs that fueled inflation. This could also help Vice President Kamala Harris and other Democrats counter Republican criticism over high gas prices. In September 2024, the average price for regular gas was USD 3.25 a gallon, down 19 cents from last month and 58 cents from last year.
• According to US Energy Information Administration (EIA), crude oil prices will stay steady in 2024 compared to 2023, then decrease in 2025. The US' introduction of new refining capacities in 2023 will boost its operable capacity, alleviating price strain on oil products in 2024 and 2025. Furthermore, the Middle East, particularly Kuwait, will add new international refining capacities, which will help ease global price pressure on gasoline and diesel. Also, it is expected, narrowing crack spreads in 2024 are likely to lead to lower average US retail fuel prices in both 2024 and 2025. Gasoline prices are projected to USD 3.36/gal in 2024 and USD 3.24/gal in 2025.

OTHER KEY INDUSTRY TRENDS COVERED IN THE REPORT

• US population growth is supported by net international migration, with 60% of counties growing
• Retail sales in the United States expanded by 3.2% YoY in 2023 supported by consumer spending
• US oil production stabilizes at 13.2 million barrels per day, while major companies pursue mergers for Permian Basin output
• Residue impact of economic shutdown on global supply chains led to an increase in food and energy prices
• The number of e-commerce users in the United States is expected to reach 333 million by 2029
• Small- and medium-sized manufacturers (SMMs) comprise 98% of the US manufacturing firms as of 2023
• United States leads regional GDP with 86% contribution, driven by infrastructure and supply chain investments 
• The United States is projected to become the world's fifth-largest rice exporter, with 3.1 million tons by 2031-32
• US imports from Mexico reached USD 475.6 billion in 2023, up 5% from 2022
• US boosts highway investment by 55% to improve infrastructure, targeting supply chain efficiency by 2026
• The US government plans to invest USD 550 billion in repairing existing infrastructure till 2026

Segment Analysis: By Destination

Domestic Segment in US CEP Market

The domestic segment continues to dominate the United States Courier, Express, and Parcel (CEP) market, accounting for approximately 76% of the total market value in 2024. This substantial market share is driven by the robust growth of e-commerce trade within the country, with the e-commerce industry witnessing a significant rise of 14% year-over-year in 2023, reaching USD 925.4 billion. The segment's strength is further reinforced by the extensive network of fulfillment centers and delivery infrastructure maintained by major players like UPS, FedEx, and Amazon Logistics. The domestic segment benefits from increasing consumer demand for same-day delivery and next-day delivery services, particularly in metropolitan areas. Major retailers like Walmart are actively expanding their delivery capabilities, with over 4,000 stores functioning as delivery hubs by the end of 2023, managing various types of orders for fulfillment and delivery.

International Segment in US CEP Market

The international segment of the US CEP market is experiencing robust growth, driven by increasing cross-border e-commerce activities and evolving global trade dynamics. A significant development in this segment is Mexico surpassing China to become the biggest exporter of goods to the United States, with Mexico exporting USD 475.6 billion to the US in 2023, marking a 5% increase from the previous year. The segment is benefiting from strategic partnerships and infrastructure improvements, such as GLS US integrating its services with its parent company's European network in April 2024, enabling direct parcel delivery between the U.S. and Europe. This integration offers fast transit times, with pickups in California potentially arriving by Thursday in countries like the U.K., Germany, and the Netherlands. The segment is also witnessing increased adoption of advanced tracking technologies and customs clearance solutions to facilitate smoother cross-border shipments.

Segment Analysis: By Speed of Delivery

Non-Express Segment in US CEP Market

The non-express delivery segment dominates the United States Courier, Express, and Parcel (CEP) market, commanding approximately 96% of the total market share in 2024. This significant market position is driven by cost-conscious businesses and consumers who prioritize economical shipping options over speed. In November 2023, Walmart demonstrated this trend by rolling out parcel stations in stores to enhance last-mile delivery efficiency, with over 40 stations implemented by December 2023. The standard shipping costs are typically lower than expedited shipping, with major carriers like DHL, FedEx, UPS, and USPS charging between USD 17 to USD 19.50 for standard delivery services. The segment's strength is further reinforced by the U.S. Postal Service's recent announcement in August 2024 of a USD 3 billion annual savings plan starting in 2025, which aims to maintain a 5-day delivery schedule for the Ground Advantage program nationwide while keeping local mail and parcel delivery times at 1 to 3 days.

Express Segment in US CEP Market

The express delivery segment is experiencing the fastest growth in the US CEP market, with projections indicating robust expansion through 2024-2029. This accelerated growth is driven by increasing consumer demands for rapid delivery services and technological advancements in the logistics sector. In April 2024, GLS US demonstrated this trend by integrating its services with its parent company's European network, enabling direct parcel delivery between the U.S. and Europe with impressive transit times - allowing packages picked up in California on Monday to potentially arrive by Thursday in countries like the U.K., Germany, and the Netherlands. The segment's growth is further supported by strategic facility expansions, such as DHL's September 2022 relocation of its Indianapolis facility to a new, nearly twice-as-large location with a USD 7.7 million investment, featuring improved equipment and more courier vehicle load positions. Courier companies are actively pursuing higher efficiency levels through extended service hours and technological innovations, with the potential to reduce average delivery times to just a few hours through the integration of automated warehouses, driverless vehicles, and drone technology.

Segment Analysis: By Model

B2C Segment in US CEP Market

The Business-to-Consumer (B2C) segment dominates the United States Courier, Express, and Parcel market, commanding approximately 66% market share in 2024, driven primarily by the explosive growth of e-commerce and changing consumer shopping behaviors. This segment has emerged as both the largest and fastest-growing segment, projected to expand at nearly 6% CAGR from 2024 to 2029. The segment's robust performance is attributed to the rising adoption of online shopping platforms, with fashion items, toys, and hobby & DIY goods being the most popular product categories. Major e-commerce players like Amazon, Walmart, and Target are continuously expanding their delivery networks and fulfillment centers across the country to meet growing consumer demand. The integration of advanced technologies such as automated sorting systems, route optimization, and real-time tracking capabilities has further enhanced the efficiency of B2C delivery. Additionally, the trend toward same-day delivery and next-day delivery options has intensified competition among carriers, leading to improved service quality and customer experience in this segment.

Remaining Segments in Model-based Segmentation

The Business-to-Business (B2B) and Consumer-to-Consumer (C2C) segments complete the model-based segmentation of the US CEP market, each serving distinct customer needs and operational requirements. The B2B segment primarily caters to corporate clients, manufacturing industries, and wholesale trade, offering specialized services such as scheduled deliveries, bulk shipments, and customized logistics solutions. This segment maintains its significance through established business relationships and long-term contracts with key industry players. Meanwhile, the C2C segment serves individual consumers sending packages to other consumers, particularly active in the growing resale and peer-to-peer marketplace sector. The segment has been transformed by digital platforms facilitating consumer-to-consumer transactions, with services ranging from standard shipping options to specialized handling for unique items. Both segments continue to evolve with technological advancements and changing market dynamics, though at a more measured pace compared to the B2C segment.

Segment Analysis: By Shipment Weight

Segment Analysis: By Mode of Transport

Road Segment in US CEP Market

The road transport segment dominates the United States Courier, Express, and Parcel (CEP) market, accounting for approximately 51% of the total market value in 2024. This segment's prominence is driven by several key factors including extensive road infrastructure development under the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law, which provides USD 550 billion in new federal investment through 2026. The segment has particularly benefited from the rise of e-commerce and last-mile delivery services, with companies like Walmart rolling out over 40 parcel stations in stores by late 2023 to enhance delivery efficiency. Road transportation offers greater flexibility and cost-effectiveness for short and medium-distance deliveries, while also providing better access to remote areas and residential locations. The segment's strong performance is further supported by technological advancements in route optimization, real-time tracking, and automated sorting systems that have significantly improved delivery efficiency and reduced operational costs.

Air Segment in US CEP Market

The air transport segment in the US CEP market continues to evolve with significant developments in infrastructure and service capabilities. In April 2024, UPS's announcement to become the primary air cargo provider for USPS, replacing FedEx, marks a major shift in the air cargo landscape. The Federal Aviation Administration's commitment of USD 427 million in grants for airport infrastructure projects across 39 states demonstrates the ongoing focus on strengthening air transport capabilities. This investment aims to modernize airports with improvements in terminal expansions, runway safety, and air traffic infrastructure. The segment's growth is particularly driven by the increasing demand for time-sensitive deliveries, international shipments, and high-value goods transportation. Air carriers are also investing in sustainable practices, with many companies incorporating more fuel-efficient aircraft and exploring alternative fuel options to reduce their environmental impact.

Remaining Segments in Mode of Transport

The remaining transport modes in the US CEP market include various alternative delivery methods such as maritime shipping for coastal deliveries, rail transport for long-distance bulk shipments, and emerging delivery technologies. These segments play a crucial role in providing specialized shipping solutions for specific routes and requirements. The integration of multiple transport modes has become increasingly important as companies seek to optimize their delivery networks and provide more flexible shipping options. These alternative transport modes are particularly valuable in situations where traditional road or air transport may not be the most efficient option, such as in congested urban areas or for specific types of cargo that require specialized handling.

Segment Analysis: By End User Industry

E-commerce Segment in US CEP Market

The e-commerce segment dominates the United States Courier, Express, and Parcel (CEP) market, accounting for approximately 76% of the total market value in 2024. This substantial market share is driven by the continued penetration of e-commerce into the retail sector, with the US e-commerce sector growing by 14% year-over-year in 2023. The segment's growth is further supported by evolving consumer preferences, with online spending showing notable increases across various categories, particularly electronics and apparel which together constitute about 34.5% of e-commerce spend. Social commerce platforms are also contributing significantly to this dominance, exemplified by TikTok Shop's launch in the US in September 2023, which enables seamless product purchases through creator content. Additionally, the rapid expansion of quick commerce services, with major players like Instacart and Uber Eats, is further strengthening the segment's position in the market.

Healthcare Segment in US CEP Market

The healthcare segment is emerging as the fastest-growing segment in the US CEP market, with projections indicating robust growth through 2024-2029. This growth is primarily driven by the increasing complexity of healthcare systems and rising demand for fast and reliable delivery services. Digital health startups have shown remarkable momentum, raising USD 5.7 billion across 266 deals in the first half of 2024, significantly driving the demand for courier services through increased transportation needs for medical devices, pharmaceuticals, and health data. The segment's growth is further supported by extensive refrigerated storage infrastructure, with the United States maintaining approximately 105.6 million cubic meters of gross refrigerated storage capacity, of which 17.4 million cubic meters provide temperature control from 0-10°C and 68.3 million cubic meters offer temperature control of -17.8°C or lower.

Remaining Segments in End User Industry

The other segments in the US CEP market include Financial Services (BFSI), Manufacturing, Primary Industry, and Wholesale and Retail Trade (Offline), each contributing uniquely to the market dynamics. The BFSI sector drives demand through the distribution of financial documents, cards, and banking materials, particularly with major developments like Capital One's planned acquisition of Discover Financial Services. The manufacturing segment benefits from the ongoing reshoring trends and government initiatives supporting domestic manufacturing. The primary industry segment, particularly agriculture, continues to evolve with new partnerships between logistics providers and agricultural businesses. The wholesale and retail trade segment maintains its significance through traditional retail distribution networks, with major retailers like Walmart expanding their delivery capabilities through innovative solutions such as in-store parcel stations.