Poland Renewable Energy Market Size & Share Analysis - Growth Trends And Forecast (2025 - 2030)

Poland Renewable Energy Market Trends and Insights

EU 2030 & Fit-for-55 Binding Targets Drive Structural Transformation

Binding EU rules require Poland to source 56% of its electricity from renewable sources by 2030 and to increase the renewable share in final energy consumption to 29.8%. Utilities therefore prioritize the roll-out of renewable capacity over the extension of coal assets, despite profitability considerations, realigning investment budgets and board-level strategies around compliance imperatives. The forward-loaded build schedule compresses project timelines, increasing execution risk and highlighting grid reinforcement needs. Coal-plant retirements squeeze reserve margins, so system planners increasingly look to hybrid renewable-plus-storage assets for dispatchable capacity.^{(1)Ministry of Climate and Environment, “Energy Policy of Poland Until 2040,” gov.pl}

Contracts-for-Difference Auctions Reshape Market Dynamics

Poland’s CfD regime now segments tenders by technology to reflect distinctive cost curves. The December 2024 session cleared only one-third of the volume offered because developers deemed strike prices too low, signaling a maturing market in which state support must track commodity price shifts. Although undersubscribed, the tender still awarded 1.6 GW of solar projects, preserving investor confidence in photovoltaic economics. Future offshore CfD rounds, including a 4 GW auction scheduled for December 2025, provide the revenue certainty necessary for multibillion-dollar Baltic Sea arrays. Unsuccessful bidders increasingly pivot to merchant sales or corporate PPAs, broadening revenue-model diversity.^{(2)Energy Global Staff, “European Energy Signs Agreements to Divest Wind Portfolio in Poland,” energyglobal.com}

Rapid Solar PV Cost Decline Reaches Grid-Parity Threshold

System costs for 5-10 kWp rooftop arrays fell to PLN 40,000-60,000 (approximately USD 10,000-15,000), encouraging businesses to self-generate power at a levelized cost that matches wholesale prices. Poland installed 4 GW of solar in 2024, lifting cumulative photovoltaic capacity above 15 GW. More than 11,700 prosumers in Mazowieckie already feed excess generation into local networks, and similar uptake patterns emerge in other voivodeships. Curtailment risk during summer peaks underscores the need for battery storage and demand-side flexibility solutions, stimulating new service niches that monetise balancing value.^{(3)Clean Energy Wire, “Dispatch from Poland | July ’25,” cleanenergywire.org}

Offshore-Wind Local-Content Incentives Create Supply-Chain Momentum

Government regulations require high domestic content in Baltic Sea projects, anchoring nacelle, blade, and tower factories close to port infrastructure. The 1.14 GW Baltic Power array broke ground in February 2025, and turbine manufacturer Vestas is constructing a second offshore plant to serve the pipeline. Local content rules channel investment into port upgrades, steel fabrication, and cable manufacturing, while offering export opportunities into neighboring markets that are pursuing similar seabed concessions. Cumulative offshore commitments already exceed PLN 30 billion (USD 7.5 billion).

Transmission Grid Congestion Creates Curtailment Risk

Rapid capacity additions outpace line-reinforcement schedules, forcing the transmission system operator to curtail gigawatts of solar and wind when north-to-south power flows exceed corridor ratings. The EIB has lent PLN 1.8 billion (approximately USD 450 million) to upgrade substations and integrate new renewables, but lead times for 400 kV builds extend beyond 2027. Generators, therefore, model curtailment probabilities into financial projections, pressuring debt-service coverage ratios. Rising congestion simultaneously accelerates the battery-storage market as developers co-locate four-hour lithium-ion packs to clip peaks and shift energy into evening demand.

Permitting Delays and Regulatory Uncertainty Constrain Development

The 2024 repeal of the 10H setback unlocked new onshore wind sites, yet the replacement 750 m buffer still restricts turbine siting near residential zones. Environmental impact studies and grid-connection agreements can take 24-30 months, elongating the development cycle and escalating financing costs. Smaller independent power producers often lack the necessary legal resources to navigate the complex process of obtaining overlapping municipal, provincial, and national approvals, thereby tilting the competitive field in favor of larger utilities. Administrative reforms under discussion aim to harmonize digital application portals and standardize inspection timelines, but implementation remains uneven.

Segment Analysis

Solar retained 60.4% of the Polish renewable energy market share in 2024, with large-scale PV projects exceeding 50 MW accounting for 72% of new capacity. Bifacial panels and optimized tracker systems increased yields, enabling project breakeven points to be achieved below wholesale prices. Onshore wind growth lagged at 4% due to legacy setback rules, whereas offshore wind is set to add 3 GW by 2027, anchored by Baltica 2 and Baltic Power. Hydropower remains capped at 2.5 GW due to ecological constraints, and biomass co-firing is tapering as coal capacity declines.

Geothermal capacity, which was negligible in 2024, is expected to expand at a forecasted 43.1% CAGR to 2030, the fastest growth rate among all technologies. Feed-in premiums of EUR 45 /MWh for district-heating applications and low-temperature resources in Podhale and Szczecin underpin investor appetite. Photon Energy’s 12 MW pilot, launched in late 2024, showcases the potential for decarbonizing municipal heating.

Note: Segment shares of all individual segments available upon report purchase

By End-User: Utilities Lead, C&I Accelerates

Utilities held 63.8% of the Polish renewable energy market size in 2024, as state-owned PGE, Tauron, and Energa leveraged their balance-sheet strength to win CfD auctions. Their combined pipeline exceeds 6.5 GW through 2030. The commercial and industrial segment, however, is growing at a 17.9% CAGR, driven by PPAs aligned with CBAM and ESG targets. Heavy manufacturers in Silesia and Lower Silesia are locking in decade-long contracts, while mid-sized enterprises accelerate rooftop solar deployment.

Residential prosumers installed 180,000 rooftop systems in 2024, despite the shift to net billing. Yet growth moderated to 6% as payback periods stretched. Energy-security concerns following the 2022 crisis continue to support baseline demand, although remuneration schemes remain less attractive than for utility-scale assets.

Note: Segment shares of all individual segments available upon report purchase

Geography Analysis

Renewable capacity is concentrated along the Baltic coast, with Pomerania and West Pomerania accounting for 38% of the total in 2024. Shallow waters and wind speeds of 8-9 m/s favor offshore deployment; 8.6 GW is in advanced stages. Mazovia and Greater Poland account for 28%, driven by high irradiance and proximity to Warsaw load centers. Silesia, aided by EUR 800 million from the EU Just Transition Fund, is pivoting from coal to host 1.2 GW of renewables under construction.^{(4)European Commission, “Just Transition Fund Allocation—Poland,” europa.eu}

Transmission reinforcements worth EUR 15 billion prioritize 1,200 km of 400 kV lines to shuttle coastal surpluses southward. Interconnectors with Germany and Lithuania are being upgraded to enable 1.5 GW of export capacity, thereby reducing curtailment during periods of high wind. Nonetheless, coastal concentration raises line losses of 6-8% on long-distance transfers.

Regional policy fragmentation persists. Pomerania offers property-tax exemptions, trimming operating costs by up to 6%. Conversely, landscape-protection statutes in Lesser Poland ban wind development across 22% of its territory. Developers consequently tailor portfolios to local rules, which inflates transaction costs and prolongs project timelines.