North America Commercial Heating, Ventilation, And Air Conditioning (HVAC) Equipment Market Size & Share Analysis - Growth Trends & Forecasts (2025 - 2030)

North America Commercial Heating, Ventilation, And Air Conditioning (HVAC) Equipment Market Analysis by Mordor Intelligence

The North America Commercial Heating, Ventilation, And Air Conditioning Equipment Market size is estimated at USD 11.41 billion in 2025, and is expected to reach USD 14.64 billion by 2030, at a CAGR of 5.1% during the forecast period (2025-2030).

• The North American HVAC market growth is driven by the increased government support to adopt heat pumps, growing concerns related to global warming, and technological advancement in HVAC equipment. Further, the increased spending on retrofit construction drives the market growth.
• The current global energy crisis implies an urgent need to move to more affordable, reliable, and cleaner ways of heating buildings. Many how commercial buildings around North America, such as retail spaces, office spaces, schools, and universities, still depend on fossil fuels, mainly natural gas, resulting in large amounts of greenhouse gas emissions. Thus, heat pumps are gaining traction as they can efficiently provide heating to commercial spaces and are one the key technologies to make heating more secure and sustainable.
• Governments of the United States and Canada look forward to introducing stringent regulations, thus mandating the incorporation of heat pumps and positively impacting the market. In September 2023, a group of 25 state governors forming the US Climate Alliance and the Biden administration stated that it aims to quadruple the number of heat pumps in the United States homes by 2030 and will reach 20 million from 4.7 million. This is because buildings account for over 30% of global greenhouse gas emissions.
• Due to the colder climatic conditions in North America, there is expected to be an increase in the demand for heating equipment. Climate researchers have theorized that sudden extreme blasts of cold weather in the United States could be fueled by global heating. The Arctic is warming up four times faster than the rest of the planet, leading to changes in the circular pattern of winds known as the polar vortex, which typically concentrates cold air in the polar region.
• Additionally, in 2024, frigid Arctic air from the Northwest Territories is descending into the province of Alberta in Canada, prompting Environment Canada to issue an extreme cold warning. This cold front is also expected to move from the Rockies toward the northern US plains before advancing south, potentially breaking daily cold records in multiple locations.
• The modern HVAC industry is moving towards intelligent technologies due to the integration of AI and Internet of Things (IoT) technology. The modern heat pump differs greatly from the '90s heat pump'. AI-powered heating and cooling technologies can automatically manage indoor, set, and outdoor temperatures. The leading HVAC system providers are incorporating the latest advanced technologies, boosting market growth in the coming years.
• Further, the Russia-Ukrainian war has suspended the global supply chain, directly impacting the sales of HVAC equipment in North America. Also, the US inflation slowed but remained elevated for a year (December 2023-January 2024), according to the US Labor Department data. The annual inflation rate for the United States was 3.1% for the 12 months ending January, compared to the previous rate of 3.4%. The declining inflation rate across the United States and Canada will drive market growth in the coming years.