North America Cereal Bar Market Size and Share

North America Cereal Bar Market (2025 - 2030)
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North America Cereal Bar Market Analysis by Mordor Intelligence

The North America cereal bar market is projected to grow from USD 6.23 million in 2025 to USD 8.31 million by 2030, registering a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.93%. This growth is driven by increasing health consciousness among consumers, regulatory changes, and rapid product reformulations that are transforming cereal bars from being perceived as discretionary snacks to legitimate meal replacement options. The United States Food and Drug Administration's (FDA) updated definition of "healthy," which will take effect in February 2025, prioritizes recipes that incorporate whole-food ingredients while discouraging those with high levels of added sugars and sodium [1]Source: Federal Register, “Food Labeling: Nutrient Content Claims; Definition of Term 'Healthy’,” federalregister.gov. Retailers are responding by expanding shelf space for natural and organic products, prompting brands to seek certifications such as USDA Organic (United States Department of Agriculture Organic) and Non-GMO Project (Non-Genetically Modified Organism Project) verification. Furthermore, 71% of North American consumers now express a preference for obtaining protein from whole foods, which is driving the popularity of high-protein, low-sugar cereal bars in mainstream grocery stores. The growth of e-commerce and direct-to-consumer subscription models is also playing a significant role in accelerating the market by reducing customer acquisition costs and enabling the delivery of personalized nutrition bundles.

Key Report Takeaways

  • By product type, energy and nutrition bars are projected to expand at a 7.43% CAGR through 2030, while granola and muesli bars held 44.32% of 2024 volume.
  • By functional claim, organic formulations account for 22.68% of 2024 revenue and are forecast to grow at a 7.72% CAGR to 2030.
  • By price category, mass-market SKUs captured 68.32% of 2024 sales; premium offerings are advancing at a 6.82% CAGR.
  • By distribution, supermarkets and hypermarkets generated 39.92% of 2024 value, yet online channels are expanding at a 7.02% CAGR.
  • By geography, the United States held 77.21% of 2024 volume; Mexico is the fastest-growing country at a 7.63% CAGR

Segment Analysis

By Product Type: Energy Bars Outpace Granola on Protein Innovation

Energy and nutrition bars are anticipated to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.43% through 2030, significantly outpacing the growth of granola/muesli bars. Granola/muesli bars are expected to account for 44.32% of the total volume in 2024, but their growth lags behind by 125 basis points. The faster growth of energy and nutrition bars can be attributed to advancements in product formulations, which now offer 15 grams of protein per serving while maintaining calorie counts below 200. These features cater to the needs of health-conscious consumers, particularly those focused on weight management and endurance activities, making these bars a preferred choice in the market.

In contrast, granola bars are encountering challenges due to the United States Food and Drug Administration's (FDA) updated definition of "healthy." The revised guidelines discourage the use of added sugars and saturated fats, which are integral to the honey-oat-nut clusters that define this subcategory. This regulatory change has created obstacles for granola bars, as manufacturers must now navigate these stricter standards while maintaining the appeal of their products. As a result, granola bars are facing increased pressure to adapt to evolving consumer preferences and regulatory requirements.

North America Cereal Bar Market: Market Share by Product Type
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By Functional Claim: Organic Bars Gain as Retailers Expand Natural Sets

Organic bars are anticipated to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.72% through 2030, surpassing the growth of conventional formulations. Conventional formulations accounted for 77.32% of the total volume in 2024, but organic bars are projected to outpace them by 179 basis points. This growth reflects the efforts of retailers to expand their natural and organic product offerings, driven by the 427 organic bar launches recorded between 2019 and 2023. Retailers such as Whole Foods Market and Sprouts Farmers Market have implemented policies requiring new stock-keeping units (SKUs) in the cereal-bar aisle to meet USDA (United States Department of Agriculture) Organic or Non-GMO (Genetically Modified Organism) Project Verification standards. These requirements effectively regulate access to the 10% share of the food market represented by natural products, a segment that is growing 38 times faster than conventional categories.

In March 2024, General Mills' Cascadian Farm introduced Organic Granola Bars, emphasizing their commitment to USDA Organic certification, non-GMO ingredients, and the exclusion of artificial additives. This strategic positioning allowed the product to secure placement in Kroger's Simple Truth organic set and Albertsons' O Organics planogram. By aligning with consumer demand for transparency and healthier options, Cascadian Farm has strengthened its presence in the rapidly growing organic food market, catering to the increasing preference for natural and sustainable products.

By Price Category: Premium Bars Scale on DTC and Specialty Retail

Premium bars are projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.82% through 2030, while mass-market offerings are expected to dominate, accounting for 68.32% of the market in 2024. This growth pattern reflects a shift in consumer preferences, as buyers increasingly prioritize products with unique attributes such as single-origin ingredients, upcycled components, and functional benefits. These benefits include adaptogens, which are believed to help the body manage stress, collagen for skin and joint health, and probiotics that support gut health. The willingness of consumers to pay a premium for these features underscores the growing demand for health-focused and sustainably sourced products in the market.

An example of this trend is David Protein, a direct-to-consumer (DTC) brand that achieved remarkable success by generating over USD 1 million in sales during its first week. The brand positioned its bars as offering 50% more calories from protein compared to competing stock-keeping units (SKUs), appealing to health-conscious consumers. David Protein scaled rapidly by employing influencer endorsements and focusing on product-led growth strategies. To further drive customer engagement, the company raised USD 10 million in seed funding and distributed 20,000 free samples to encourage product trials. This approach allowed the brand to bypass traditional retail slotting fees and significantly reduce customer acquisition costs, demonstrating an innovative and efficient path to market expansion.

North America Cereal Bar Market: Market Share by Price Category
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By Distribution Channel: E-Commerce Gains as DTC Models Mature

Online retail channels are projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.02% through 2030, surpassing the growth of supermarkets and hypermarkets, which are expected to account for 39.92% of the total volume in 2024, by 110 basis points. This growth is primarily driven by the strong performance of food e-commerce, which has achieved a CAGR of 29.9%, and the increasing adoption of direct-to-consumer (DTC) subscription models. These models allow brands to reduce customer acquisition costs while offering personalized nutrition bundles tailored to individual preferences. For instance, brands like Aloha, which have achieved significant sales through platforms such as Amazon and their own websites, are now expanding into traditional retail channels. This approach mitigates risks associated with retail expansion and helps preserve the brand's equity and reputation in the market. Grocery e-commerce sales grew at the fastest rate of 26.4% annually over the past year, prior to 2024. Similar to offline grocery, grocery e-commerce is also highly consolidated, with both segments led by Walmart. Walmart's extensive network of outlets enables in-store pickup or quick delivery within reach of most United States consumers [3]Source: Government of Canada, "Distribution channel series – Grocery ecommerce market in the United States," agriculture.canada.ca.

While online channels are growing rapidly, supermarkets and hypermarkets remain the largest distribution channel, supported by impulse-purchase behavior and the cost benefits of multi-pack offerings. Retailers such as Walmart and Target are addressing consumer demand by allocating end-cap displays for protein bars and expanding refrigerated sections to include chilled formats like Perfect Snacks. Perfect Snacks, acquired by Mondelez in June 2024, is now available in over 27,000 retail locations across the United States, highlighting the increasing significance of chilled protein snack options in the market.

Geography Analysis

The United States emerged as the leading segment in North America's cereal bar market, commanding 77.21% of the region's volume in 2024. This dominance is attributed to its well-established retail networks, a mature sports-nutrition ecosystem, and a consumer base that is increasingly open to experimenting with functional product formats. Natural products, which currently represent approximately 10% of the U.S. food market, are growing at a rate 38 times faster than conventional categories. This rapid growth highlights the success of brands that prioritize clean labels, organic certifications, and allergen-free formulations. Additionally, the United States market is undergoing significant changes due to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration's (FDA) updated "healthy" definition, effective February 2025. This update introduces stricter requirements, including food-group equivalents and limits on added sugars, saturated fat, and sodium. Brands that fail to comply with these new standards risk losing placement in health-and-wellness sections at major retailers such as Target, Walmart, and Kroger.

Mexico stands out as the fastest-growing segment in the North American cereal bar market, with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.63% through 2030. This growth is largely driven by the implementation of NOM-051 front-of-pack labeling regulations. These reforms require manufacturers to either reformulate high-sugar products or accept black octagon warning labels, which are designed to inform and deter health-conscious consumers. As a result, manufacturers are increasingly focusing on creating healthier product alternatives to align with consumer preferences and regulatory requirements. This regulatory shift has positioned Mexico as a key growth market within the region.

The rest of North America, which includes smaller Caribbean and Central American markets, remains in the early stages of development. Despite being nascent, these markets are gaining attention from United States and Canadian manufacturers. Companies are leveraging regional trade agreements and targeting rising disposable incomes in urban centers to expand their presence. While these markets currently represent a smaller share of the overall North American cereal bar market, they offer significant potential for growth as consumer demand for convenient and healthier snack options continues to rise.

Competitive Landscape

The North America cereal bar market demonstrates a moderate level of consolidation, with a limited number of multinational Consumer Packaged Goods (CPG) companies controlling the majority of market volume. Despite this dominance, there remains significant potential for smaller, emerging brands to carve out market share in premium and functional product niches. A notable development in this space is Mars' acquisition of Kellanova for USD 35.9 billion in August 2024. This acquisition has resulted in the creation of a snacking conglomerate that now encompasses well-known brands such as Nature Valley, Kashi, RXBar, KIND, and Clif Bar. These brands collectively cover a wide range of price points, functional benefits, and distribution channels. This strategic consolidation enables Mars to optimize its operations by spreading research and development (R&D) costs across multiple brands, negotiating advantageous slotting fees with retailers, and leveraging cross-brand promotional strategies to safeguard shelf space from private-label competitors.

Another significant move in the market is Mondelez International's acquisition of a majority stake in Perfect Snacks in June 2024. Perfect Snacks is a refrigerated protein-bar brand that is distributed across more than 27,000 retail locations in the United States. This acquisition underscores the growing interest of large CPG companies in refrigerated, plant-based product formats, which typically command a price premium of 30% to 40% compared to ambient stock-keeping units (SKUs). The move reflects a broader industry trend toward innovation in product formats that cater to evolving consumer preferences for healthier and more sustainable options.

Opportunities for growth in the cereal bar market are particularly evident in areas such as refrigerated bars, grain-free formulations, and the incorporation of upcycled ingredients. Emerging disruptors like Three Wishes are capitalizing on these trends by introducing innovative products such as grain-free granola bars, which are now available at Target. These bars are crafted using nuts and seeds, delivering 6 grams of protein and 3 grams of sugar per serving, while avoiding traditional ingredients like wheat, rice, corn, and oats. This formulation is specifically designed to appeal to health-conscious consumers, including those adhering to paleo and Whole30 diets, highlighting the potential for niche products to gain traction in a competitive market.

North America Cereal Bar Industry Leaders

  1. General Mills Inc.

  2. Kellanova

  3. PepsiCo, Inc.

  4. Mondelez International, Inc.

  5. Mars, Incorporated

  6. *Disclaimer: Major Players sorted in no particular order
North America Cereal Bar Market Concentration
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Recent Industry Developments

  • November 2025: Cerealto acquired a majority stake in Fresca Foods, establishing a strong U.S. manufacturing presence. This partnership accelerates Cerealto’s entry into the fast-growing North American snack bar market and expands capabilities in natural and organic snacking segments.
  • November 2024: 1440 Foods acquired FITCRUNCH to strengthen its portfolio of protein-rich snack bars, expanding its position in North America's active nutrition segment and enhancing reach across retail channels with complementary product innovation capabilities.
  • April 2024: Seven Sundays launched Real Cocoa Sunflower Cereal in US Costco stores, targeting health-conscious consumers. The product features grain-free, upcycled ingredients and plant protein, reflecting innovation and expansion within the North America cereal and snack market.

Table of Contents for North America Cereal Bar Industry Report

1. INTRODUCTION

  • 1.1 Study Assumptions and Market Definition
  • 1.2 Scope of the Study

2. RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

3. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

4. MARKET LANDSCAPE

  • 4.1 Market Overview
  • 4.2 Market Drivers
    • 4.2.1 Rising health consciousness and focus on functional nutrition
    • 4.2.2 Expansion of clean label and non-GMO product offerings
    • 4.2.3 Growth in plant-based and vegan product lines
    • 4.2.4 Increase in sports, fitness, and outdoor activity participation
    • 4.2.5 Rise of gluten-free, allergy-friendly, and specialty diet formats
    • 4.2.6 E-commerce and direct-to-consumer distribution growth
  • 4.3 Market Restraints
    • 4.3.1 Regulatory changes for labeling, health claims, and allergens
    • 4.3.2 Consumer skepticism over processed food health benefits
    • 4.3.3 Challenges in scaling new formulations for mass production
    • 4.3.4 Challenges in scaling new formulations for mass production
  • 4.4 Supply Chain Analysis
  • 4.5 Regulatory Outlook
  • 4.6 Porter’s Five Forces
    • 4.6.1 Threat of New Entrants
    • 4.6.2 Bargaining Power of Buyers/Consumers
    • 4.6.3 Bargaining Power of Suppliers
    • 4.6.4 Threat of Substitute Products
    • 4.6.5 Intensity of Competitive Rivalry

5. MARKET SIZE AND GROWTH FORECASTS (VALUE AND VOLUME)

  • 5.1 By Product Type
    • 5.1.1 Granola/Muesli Bars
    • 5.1.2 Energy and Nutrition Bars
    • 5.1.3 Others
  • 5.2 By Functional Claim
    • 5.2.1 Organic
    • 5.2.2 Conventional
  • 5.3 By Price Category
    • 5.3.1 Mass
    • 5.3.2 Premium
  • 5.4 By Distribution Channel
    • 5.4.1 Supermarket/Hypermarket
    • 5.4.2 Online Retail Store
    • 5.4.3 Convenience Store
    • 5.4.4 Other Distribution Channels
  • 5.5 By Geography
    • 5.5.1 United States
    • 5.5.2 Canada
    • 5.5.3 Mexico
    • 5.5.4 Rest of North America

6. COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

  • 6.1 Market Concentration
  • 6.2 Strategic Moves
  • 6.3 Market Share Analysis
  • 6.4 Company Profiles (includes Global-level Overview, Market-level Overview, Core Segments, Financials (if available), Strategic Information, Market Rank/Share, Products and Services, Recent Developments)
    • 6.4.1 General Mills Inc.
    • 6.4.2 Kellanova
    • 6.4.3 PepsiCo, Inc.
    • 6.4.4 Mondelez International, Inc.
    • 6.4.5 Mars, Incorporated
    • 6.4.6 Post Holdings Inc.
    • 6.4.7 The Simply Good Foods Company
    • 6.4.8 McKee Foods Corporation
    • 6.4.9 Bobo’s Oat Bars, LLC
    • 6.4.10 Nature’s Path Foods, Inc.
    • 6.4.11 Core Foods, LLC
    • 6.4.12 Probar LLC
    • 6.4.13 Riverside Natural Foods Ltd
    • 6.4.14 Kashi Company
    • 6.4.15 Atkins Nutritionals
    • 6.4.16 Quaker Oats Company
    • 6.4.17 Health Warrior
    • 6.4.18 GoGo Quinoa Inc.
    • 6.4.19 Freedom Foods Group Limited
    • 6.4.20 Bariatrix Nutrition Inc.

7. MARKET OPPORTUNITIES AND FUTURE OUTLOOK

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North America Cereal Bar Market Report Scope

Convenience Store, Online Retail Store, Supermarket/Hypermarket, Others are covered as segments by Distribution Channel. Canada, Mexico, United States are covered as segments by Country.
By Product Type
Granola/Muesli Bars
Energy and Nutrition Bars
Others
By Functional Claim
Organic
Conventional
By Price Category
Mass
Premium
By Distribution Channel
Supermarket/Hypermarket
Online Retail Store
Convenience Store
Other Distribution Channels
By Geography
United States
Canada
Mexico
Rest of North America
By Product Type Granola/Muesli Bars
Energy and Nutrition Bars
Others
By Functional Claim Organic
Conventional
By Price Category Mass
Premium
By Distribution Channel Supermarket/Hypermarket
Online Retail Store
Convenience Store
Other Distribution Channels
By Geography United States
Canada
Mexico
Rest of North America
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Market Definition

  • Milk and White Chocolate - Milk chocolates is a solid chocolate made with milk (in the form of either milk powder, liquid milk, or condensed milk) and cocoa solids. White chocolate is made from cocoa butter and milk and contains no cocoa solids whatsoever. The scope includes regular chocolates, low-sugar, and sugar-free variants
  • Toffees & Nougats - Toffees include hard, chewy, and small or one-bite candies marketed with labels as toffee or toffee-like confectionery. Nougat is a chewy confection with almond, sugar, and egg white as a basic ingredient; and it originated in Europe and Middle East countries.
  • Cereals Bars - A snack composed of breakfast cereal that has been compressed into a bar shape and is held together with a form of edible adhesive. The scope includes snack bars made with cereals such as rice, oats, corn, etc. mixed with a binding syrup. These also include products labeled as cereal bars, cereal treat bars, or grain bars.
  • Chewing Gum - This is a preparation for chewing, usually made of flavored and sweetened chicle or such substitutes as polyvinyl acetate. The types of chewing gums included in the scope are sugar-chewing gums and sugar-free chewing gums
Keyword Definition
Dark Chocolate Dark chocolate is a form of chocolate containing cocoa solids and cocoa butter without the milk.
White Chocolate White chocolate is the type of chocolate containing the highest percentage of milk solids, typically around or over 30 percent.
Milk Chocolate Milk chocolate is made from dark chocolate that has a low cocoa solid content and higher sugar content, plus a milk product.
Hard Candy A candy made of sugar and corn syrup boiled without crystallizing.
Toffees A hard, chewy, often brown sweet that is made from sugar boiled with butter.
Nougats A chewy or brittle candy containing almonds or other nuts and sometimes fruit.
Cereal bar A cereal bar is a bar-shaped food product, made by pressing cereals and usually dried fruit or berries, which are in most cases held together by glucose syrup.
Protein bar Protein bars are nutrition bars that contain a high proportion of protein to carbohydrates/fats.
Fruit & Nut bar These are often based on dates with other dried fruit and nut additions and, in some cases, flavorings.
NCA The National Confectioners Association is an American trade organization that promotes chocolate, candy, gum and mints, and the companies that make these treats.
CGMP Current good manufacturing practices are those conforming to the guidelines recommended by relevant agencies.
Unstandardized foods Unstandardized foods are those that do not have a standard of identity or that deviate from a prescribed standard in any manner.
GI The glycemic index (GI) is a way of ranking carbohydrate-containing foods based on how slowly or quickly they are digested and increase blood glucose levels over a period of time
Skimmed milk powder Skimmed milk powder is obtained by removing water from pasteurized skim milk by spray-drying.
Flavanols Flavanols are a group of compounds found in cocoa, tea, apples, and many other plant-based foods and beverages.
WPC Whey protein concentrate- the substance obtained by the removal of sufficient nonprotein constituents from pasteurized whey so that the finished dry product contains greater than 25% protein.
LDL Low density Lipoprotein- the bad cholesterol
HDL High density Lipoprotein- the good cholesterol
BHT butylated Hydroxytoluene is a lab-made chemical that is added to foods as a preservative.
Carrageenan Carrageenan is an additive used to thicken, emulsify, and preserve foods and drinks.
Free form Not containing certain ingredients, such as gluten, dairy, or sugar.
Cocoa butter It is a fatty substance obtained from cocoa beans, used in the manufacture of confectionery.
Pastellies A type of of Brazilian candy made from sugar, eggs, and milk.
Draggees Small, round candies that are coated with a hard sugar shell
CHOPRABISCO Royal Belgian Association of the chocolate, pralines, biscuit, and confectionery industry- A trade association that represents the Belgian chocolate industry.
European Directive 2000/13 A European Union directive that regulates the labeling of food products
Kakao-Verordnung The German chocolate ordinance, a set of regulations that define what can be labeled as "chocolate" in Germany.
FASFC Federal Agency for the Safety of the Food Chain
Pectin A natural substance that is derived from fruits and vegetables. It is used in confectionery to create a gel-like texture.
Invert sugars A type of sugar that is made up of glucose and fructose.
Emulsifier A substance that helps to mix to liquids that does not mix together.
Anthocyanins A type of flavonoid that is responsible for the red, purple, and blue colors of confectionery.
Functional Foods Foods that have been modified to provide additional health benefits beyond basic nutrition.
Kosher certificate This certification verifies that the ingredients, production process including all machinery, and/or food-service process complies with the standards of Jewish dietary law
Chicory root extract A natural extract from the chicory root that is a good source of fiber, calcium, phosphorous, and folate
RDD Recommended daily dose
Gummies A chewy gelatin-based candy that is often flavored with fruit.
Nutraceuticals Food or dietary supplements that are claimed to have health benefits.
Energy bars Snack bars that are high in carbohydrates and calories are designed to provide energy on the go.
BFSO Belgian Food Safety Organization for the food chain.
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Research Methodology

Mordor Intelligence follows a four-step methodology in all our reports.

  • Step-1: Identify Key Variables: In order to build a robust forecasting methodology, the variables and factors identified in Step 1 are tested against available historical market numbers. Through an iterative process, the variables required for market forecast are set, and the model is built on the basis of these variables.​
  • Step-2: Build a Market Model: Market-size estimations for the forecast years are in nominal terms. Inflation is not a part of the pricing, and the average selling price (ASP) is kept constant throughout the forecast period for each country.​
  • Step-3: Validate and Finalize: In this important step, all market numbers, variables, and analyst calls are validated through an extensive network of primary research experts from the market studied. The respondents are selected across levels and functions to generate a holistic picture of the market studied.​
  • Step-4: Research Outputs: Syndicated Reports, Custom Consulting Assignments, Databases & Subscription Platforms
research-methodology
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