Electric Commercial Vehicle Market Size & Share Analysis - Growth Trends and Forecast (2026 - 2031)

Global Electric Commercial Vehicle Market Trends and Insights

Rapid Battery-Cost Decline Below USD 100/kWh Driving TCO Breakeven

In early 2025, lithium-iron-phosphate cell prices reached a significant milestone, crossing the breakeven threshold for high-mileage trucks. CATL's latest generation of cells offers enhanced energy density and cost efficiency, enabling extended ranges without exceeding axle-weight limits. When considering fuel and maintenance savings, Daimler Truck's eCascadia demonstrates a notable cost advantage over diesel alternatives on regional routes in California. Reflecting a shift in market dynamics, PACCAR reported a substantial portion of its orders for 2025 were placed without relying on subsidies, highlighting the growing economic feasibility of these technologies. Projections suggest further cost reductions in the coming years, which could eliminate the need for purchase incentives across most operational scenarios.

Government-funded Zero-Emission Fleet Procurement Mandates

California’s Advanced Clean Fleets (ACF) requires covered fleets to begin ZEV purchasing from 2024, with full turnover timelines varying by fleet category; drayage requirements reach full zero-emission operation by 2035, while other covered fleet categories transition on later schedules^{[2]“Advanced Clean Fleets Regulation,” California Air Resources Board, arb.ca.gov} . The European Commission’s revised heavy-duty CO₂ standards stipulate a 45% cut by 2030 and a 90% cut by 2040, effectively sunsetting new diesel in medium-duty classes. China’s dual-credit scheme rewards over-compliance, prompting BYD to attribute a major share of its 2025 domestic commercial sales to the incentive framework. India’s FAME-III allocates significant investment to electric buses and carriers, with a particular focus on Delhi, Mumbai, and Bengaluru. Such programs spur bulk procurement, accelerate learning curves, and tighten supply chains faster than organic demand growth alone.

E-commerce-led Surge in Urban Last-Mile Delivery Vehicles

Parcel volumes in leading e-commerce markets increased significantly year-over-year in 2025, driving demand for battery-electric vans suited to dense routes. Amazon has rolled out more than 25,000 custom electric delivery vans from Rivian across the U.S., cutting per-package emissions compared to diesel and demonstrating the operational fit of electrification in last-mile logistics^{[3]“2025 Sustainability Report,” Amazon.com Inc., amazon.com} . DHL is investing significantly to electrify its fleet of vans by the end of the forecast period, leveraging the economic benefits of operating in low-emission zones. London's Ultra Low Emission Zone, now covering all boroughs, imposes daily fees on non-compliant vans. This regulatory framework encourages a shift toward electric vehicles, particularly for routes with higher delivery volumes. Urban operations with frequent usage achieve cost recovery quickly, highlighting the critical role of delivery fleets in driving operational growth.

Hydrogen Hub Investments Accelerating Fuel-cell Trucks

By the end of the decade, the United States Department of Energy aims to introduce a significant number of fuel-cell trucks at California ports, supported by a major hydrogen hub program. Japan is planning to establish numerous refueling stations along key corridors to enhance hydrogen infrastructure. South Korea is focusing on increasing the adoption of fuel-cell trucks by providing substantial subsidies and maintaining affordable hydrogen prices. Hyundai's fleet has demonstrated the efficiency and practicality of fuel-cell technology for long-haul operations with quick refueling times. In Europe, a consortium is working to develop a comprehensive network of heavy-duty refueling stations across the continent. These coordinated efforts collectively strengthen the potential for scaling up fuel-cell technology in the heavy-duty vehicle segment.

Commercial-grade Fast-Charger Grid Constraints on Highway Freight Corridors

The United States operates a limited number of heavy-duty DC chargers above 350 kW, falling short of corridor requirements. In Europe, interconnection queues are significantly long, delaying site energization and pushing fleets onto regional routes. Electrify America highlights that a considerable portion of its planned truck sites require substation upgrades, each involving substantial costs. Meanwhile, India's National Highways Authority has activated only a fraction of its planned truck-charging plazas, with full commissioning now delayed. These grid bottlenecks hinder the potential of long-haul battery electric penetration until megawatt charging becomes more prevalent.

Payload Penalties from Large Battery Packs in Long-haul Segments

A large battery pack significantly reduces legal payloads in markets with strict gross weight limits. While exemptions exist in some regions, they are insufficient to fully address the revenue gaps for bulk haulers. Users of electric trucks on weight-sensitive routes face notable revenue losses per trip. Even as battery density improves, the gap will narrow but persist, keeping hydrogen as the favored choice for long-haul freight.

Segment Analysis

By Vehicle Type: Buses Lead, Trucks Accelerate on Logistics Demand

Buses accounted for 54.12% of 2025 revenue, reflecting long procurement cycles and public subsidies that favor fleet-wide deployment in city transit systems, giving the electric commercial vehicle market size a bus-centred foundation. Trucks, however, are growing at 17.15% CAGR through 2031 as e-commerce giants electrify last-mile and regional routes. In recent years, BYD has delivered a significant number of electric buses globally, with the majority allocated to Chinese municipalities due to air-quality mandates. Meanwhile, Ford has experienced notable growth in the sales of its E-Transit vans across North America. While payload penalties hinder the adoption of battery electric vehicles in long-haul heavy trucks, they steer near-term growth towards regional hauls within a limited radius. Vans, benefiting from modular battery packaging that maintains cargo volume, have become essential for parcel carriers. Notably, DHL's Streetscooter fleet has seen substantial expansion in recent years.

Continued municipal funding sustains bus dominance in emerging markets, yet the shorter four- to six-year replacement cycles in logistics fleets position trucks to overtake buses in annual volumes after 2028. Fleet operators such as UPS, Amazon, and JD Logistics are creating a secondary market for lightweight electric chassis, expanding supplier diversity beyond traditional bus-focused OEMs. Meanwhile, waste-management authorities and utilities adopt specialized electric chassis for stop-and-go duty cycles, further broadening truck demand. As supply chains mature and chassis versatility improves, trucks are set to become the volume engine of the electric commercial vehicle market, particularly in high-utilization parcel and municipal service routes.

Note: Segment shares of all individual segments available upon report purchase

By Propulsion: BEV Dominance Challenged by FCEV in Heavy-Duty

Battery electric powertrains captured an 82.36% share in 2025, benefiting from mature supply chains and the rapid decline in cell pricing, giving the electric commercial vehicle market a clear technology incumbent. Fuel-cell electric vehicles nonetheless post a 25.01% CAGR through 2031, targeting heavy-duty use cases where battery mass erodes payload economics. Hyundai’s XCIENT trucks have clocked more than 5 million kilometers with refueling, validating the business case for hydrogen in long-haul applications ^{[4]“XCIENT Fuel Cell Milestone Press Release,” Hyundai Motor Company, hyundai.com} . The United States hydrogen hub program earmarks 1,000 fuel-cell trucks for California ports by 2028, signaling public-sector confidence in the pathway. Plug-in hybrids serve range-constrained regions; Volvo’s plug-in FH variant made up a nominal share of its European electric sales in 2024.

Battery electric traction will remain dominant in urban and regional fleets because depot charging and low energy prices preserve cost advantages. Fuel-cell adoption depends on achieving cost competitiveness for hydrogen, which is expected as renewable electrolysis scales in the coming years. As regulators enforce stricter zero-emission standards, hybrid and non-plug-in variants are likely to decline. In the shifting propulsion landscape, batteries are expected to dominate urban routes, while hydrogen is poised to cater to heavier long-distance freight, expanding the potential market for electric commercial vehicles.

By Power Output: Mid-Range Dominates, High-Power Segment Gains on Highway Freight

The 150-250 kW band held 46.25% of 2025 deliveries, aligning with Class 6-7 trucks used for regional distribution. Greater-than-250 kW drivetrains grow at 15.23% CAGR to 2031, catalyzed by Daimler’s eActros 600 and Tesla’s Semi, both of which eliminate range anxiety on major freight corridors. Less-than-150 kW systems dominate light vans such as Rivian’s EDV, where lower power improves affordability and efficiency.

High-power systems require 800-volt architectures that add 15-20% component cost yet enable one-megawatt charging, a critical feature for class 8 tractors. As megawatt infrastructure spreads across Interstate 5, Interstate 95, and European TEN-T corridors, high-power segments will capture a larger slice of the electric commercial vehicle market. Mid-range power will remain prevalent in municipal and regional fleets, where overnight depot charging is sufficient.

By Battery Capacity: 100-200 kWh Leads, >200 kWh Rises with Range Demands

Packs between 100-200 kWh claimed 50.12% share in 2025, balancing cost, weight, and overnight-charging compatibility for regional work, reinforcing the central role of this block in the electric commercial vehicle market size. Greater-than-200 kWh packs are advancing at 14.62% CAGR by 2031 as operators chase 300-mile ranges; Yutong's E12 bus, equipped with a high-capacity battery pack, completes long-distance journeys without the need for opportunity charging. Meanwhile, smaller battery packs power last-mile vans, which typically have shorter range requirements. This approach not only meets operational needs but also helps reduce vehicle costs. For instance, Ford's E-Transit, featuring a smaller battery, is more cost-effective compared to its larger counterpart.

Cell-level gains toward 300 Wh/kg enable higher-capacity batteries without breaching axle limits, nudging long-haul fleets to select packs with capacities of 250-400 kWh. Meanwhile, urban operators may downsize to limit capital outlay, proving that the pack capacity strategy will diverge by duty cycle.

By Range: 150-300 Miles Dominates, more than 300 Miles Expands on Battery Advances

Ranges of 150-300 miles comprised 48.22% of 2025 shipments, fitting regional and urban duty cycles and strengthening this sweet spot within the electric commercial vehicle market. More than300 mile capability, growing 20.13% CAGR by 2031, appeals to transcontinental North American routes and European long-distance logistics. Volvo's FH Electric demonstrates impressive range capabilities on a single charge. Similarly, PepsiCo's Tesla Semis, even when fully laden, showcase performance that aligns seamlessly with daily driving requirements.

Less-than-150-mile variants remain vital for dense urban parcels; Amazon’s vans average 120 miles per day with ample buffer for seasonal drain. Range choice will track charging density: sparse coverage in India or Southeast Asia obliges higher-range purchases, whereas Europe’s expanding fast-charger grid supports smaller packs.

By End-Use Industry: Urban Transit Leads, Logistics Surges on E-commerce

Urban transit held a 57.03% share in 2025, thanks to centralized bus procurements under air-quality rules, which anchored public spending as the primary driver for the electric commercial vehicle market. Logistics and delivery grow 16.44% CAGR through 2031 as parcel volumes swell and low-emission zones impose a penalty price on diesel. Shenzhen plans to electrify a significant number of municipal buses and trucks by 2025, setting a replicable blueprint for other megacities. Waste management and utilities adopt stop-start trucks to meet municipal sound and emission limits; Los Angeles ordered several electric refuse trucks in 2025.

High utilization in parcel delivery speeds payback to under three years, positioning logistics as the fastest-growing end-use. Nevertheless, the transit segment’s long vehicle life and scale keep it the single largest vertical through mid-decade.

Note: Segment shares of all individual segments available upon report purchase

By Charging Type: Depot AC Dominates, Opportunity DC Grows with Highway Freight

Depot AC charging owned a 68.24% share in 2025, leveraging off-peak tariffs between USD 0.08-0.12 per kWh and aligning with overnight dwell times, thereby supporting the bulk of the electric commercial vehicle market. En route, DC opportunity charging posts an 18.33% CAGR, which is critical for trucks that exceed 300 miles daily. New York’s MTA has installed a significant number of depot chargers for e-buses, demonstrating the viability of the depot model for large fleets. Electrify America’s 350 kW network enables trucks to add substantial range in federally mandated 30-minute breaks.

Megawatt standards under CharIN and SAE will reduce recharge time to 15 minutes, tipping the long-haul preference toward opportunity charging. Depot models will stay dominant for urban fleets, while corridor operators migrate to high-power public sites.

Geography Analysis

Asia-Pacific controlled 62.18% of 2025 revenue, underpinned by China’s major electric share of new urban bus orders and India’s FAME-III subsidy for buses and goods carriers. Japan’s Isuzu and Mitsubishi Fuso delivered several electric trucks focused on Tokyo and Osaka's low-emission zones. South Korea exported XCIENT fuel-cell trucks, sharpening domestic hydrogen expertise. The region benefits from centralized procurement, dense urbanization, and air-quality imperatives that accelerate public bus rollouts.

The Middle East and Africa region is expected to record the fastest growth trajectory at a 14.18% CAGR by 2031. Under Vision 2030, Saudi Arabia's Public Investment Fund has allocated significant resources to establish electric bus and truck plants, aiming for substantial annual production in the coming years. Durban financed several e-buses through the African Development Bank, while Egypt aims to electrify a significant number of Cairo buses by 2028 with EBRD loans. Growth rides on sovereign capital and multilateral facilities in markets that lack domestic OEM depth but possess ambitious decarbonization agendas.

North America and Europe mirror each other in regulatory stringency and infrastructure challenges. California’s Advanced Clean Trucks (ACT) regulation requires manufacturers to sell ZEVs as an increasing share of annual sales starting MY2024, reaching 55% (Class 2b–3), 75% (Class 4–8 straight trucks), and 40% (tractors) by MY2035. Canada set aside CAD 2.75 billion (~USD 2 billion) to electrify 5,000 buses by 2026-27. Europe’s 45% heavy-duty CO₂ cut by 2030 is reinforced by German truck subsidies and expanding low-emission zones in France and the United Kingdom. Both continents face grid-connection delays on highway corridors, slowing long-haul penetration, yet policy certainty and purchase incentives keep uptake on track for a rapid climb through 2030.