Market Overview
| Study Period | 2019 - 2030 |
|---|---|
| Base Year For Estimation | 2024 |
| Forecast Data Period | 2025 - 2030 |
| Market Size (2025) | USD 51.05 Billion |
| Market Size (2030) | USD 68.81 Billion |
| Growth Rate (2025 - 2030) | 6.20% CAGR |
| Market Concentration | Medium |
Major Players
*Disclaimer: Major Players sorted in no particular order Image © Mordor Intelligence. Reuse requires attribution under CC BY 4.0. |
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UAE Commercial Real Estate Market Analysis by Mordor Intelligence
The UAE Commercial Real Estate Market size stood at USD 51.05 billion in 2025 and is on track to reach USD 68.81 billion by 2030, translating into a 6.2% CAGR. The upbeat outlook rests on policy liberalization, world-class infrastructure, and a rising inflow of foreign capital that continues to treat the Emirates as the region’s preferred operational base. Offices retain the largest share because global companies view Dubai and Abu Dhabi as indispensable headquarters locations, yet logistics enjoys the fastest expansion as industrial localization reshapes value chains. Prime office vacancies of 8.6% in Dubai and 2.3% in Abu Dhabi are pushing rents to new highs, while low borrowing costs in prior years have prompted investors to lock in income-producing assets ahead of potential rate swings. Geographic opportunity is widening beyond Dubai, especially in Ras Al Khaimah, where industrial corridors and competitive land values offer 6.5% CAGR upside. Competitive intensity remains moderate: leading developers are consolidating premium assets as international funds form joint ventures to secure exposure.
Key Report Takeaways
- By property type, offices controlled 46.56% of the UAE Commercial Real Estate market share in 2024, while logistics is advancing at a 7.1% CAGR through 2030.
- By business model, sales accounted for 60.45% of the UAE Commercial Real Estate market size in 2024, whereas rentals are on course for a 6.2% CAGR to 2030.
- By end-user, corporates, and SMEs commanded 75.68 of % UAE Commercial Real Estate market share in 2024, and individual investors are climbing at a 6.7% CAGR through 2030.
- By geography, Dubai controlled 71.40% of the UAE Commercial Real Estate market share in 2024, while Ras Al Khaimah is advancing at a 6.5% CAGR through 2030.
UAE Commercial Real Estate Market Trends and Insights
Drivers Impact Analysis
| Driver | (%) Impact on CAGR Forecast | Geographic Relevance | Impact Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Golden Visa reforms boost FDI | +1.2% | National; strongest in Dubai and Abu Dhabi | Medium term (2-4 years) |
| Manufacturing policy lifts logistics use | +1.1% | Dubai South, Abu Dhabi industrial zones, Ras Al Khaimah | Long term (≥ 4 years) |
| Prime-office scarcity escalates rents | +0.9% | Dubai and Abu Dhabi financial districts | Short term (≤ 2 years) |
| Tourism-led hospitality expansion | +0.8% | Dubai, with spillover to Sharjah and northern emirates | Medium term (2-4 years) |
| Corporate net-zero mandates | +0.6% | Dubai, Abu Dhabi, with broader rollout | Long term (≥ 4 years) |
| AI-enabled property management | +0.4% | Nationwide Grade A assets | Medium term (2-4 years) |
| Source: Mordor Intelligence | |||
Golden Visa Reforms Accelerate Foreign Investment Flows
Removal of minimum down-payment thresholds allows off-plan commercial purchases backed only by a developer’s clearance letter, encouraging earlier project entry. Property values now reference Dubai Land Department appraisals instead of legacy deed figures, creating valuation upside for agile investors. The policy dovetails with the national plan to attract USD 354 billion in FDI over six years, positioning commercial property as both a yield and residency gateway. Family offices and sovereign funds increasingly view the UAE Commercial Real Estate market as a two-benefit play that blends portfolio diversification with relocation optionality[1]UAE Federal Authority for Identity and Citizenship, “Golden Visa Amendments 2025,” UAE FAIC, u.ae.
Manufacturing Localization Strategy Fuels Industrial Real Estate Boom
Operation 300bn aims to lift industrial GDP by AED 300 billion (USD 81.7 billion) by 2031, stimulating warehouse take-up and built-to-suit factories. Industrial rents rose 12.5% in Dubai and 10.9% in Abu Dhabi during 2024, and KEZAD Group is adding 250,000 m² of warehousing to meet pipeline commitments. Public-bank programs channel USD 8.17 billion in concessional financing, lowering the hurdle rate for developers delivering fit-out space to global manufacturers.
Prime-Office Scarcity Drives Unprecedented Rental Growth
Vacancy of 8.6% in Dubai and 2.3% in Abu Dhabi marks the tightest supply since 2014, fueling annual rent hikes above 20% for Grade A clusters such as DIFC and ADGM. Multinationals are accepting longer leases to guarantee space, a shift that locks in predictable revenue for landlords. The squeeze illuminates the success of diversification policies that shifted demand from hydrocarbon firms to technology and finance occupiers. Overflow demand is now targeting secondary districts, widening the investable universe.
Tourism Infrastructure Expansion Drives Hospitality Growth
The Dubai 2040 Urban Master Plan doubles green zones and sets five new urban centers that integrate hotels, retail, and offices. Hotel occupancy reached 82.2% in Dubai and 78% in Abu Dhabi, signaling sustained demand for hospitality assets. Branded residences are emerging as a hybrid play that captures hotel ADR upside alongside residential appreciation. International operators continue to enter long-term management contracts, reinforcing income stability for developers[2]Dubai Department of Economy & Tourism, “Dubai 2040 Urban Master Plan Update,” Dubai Department of Economy & Tourism, det.gov.ae.
Restraint Impact Analysis
| Restraint | (%) Impact on CAGR Forecast | Geographic Relevance | Impact Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Interest-rate volatility compresses returns | -0.7% | Nationwide; greatest hit on leveraged acquisitions | Short term (≤ 2 years) |
| Limited freehold zones outside Dubai | -0.5% | Abu Dhabi, Sharjah, northern emirates | Medium term (2-4 years) |
| Oversupply risk in secondary-grade retail assets | -0.4% | Dubai suburban corridors | Medium term (2-4 years) |
| Data-sovereignty rules slow hyperscale roll-outs | -0.3% | Free zones and technology parks nationwide | Long term (≥ 4 years) |
| Source: Mordor Intelligence | |||
Interest-Rate Volatility Compresses Investment Returns
UAE banks’ real-estate exposure remains steady at 14.8% of assets, yet impairment charges spiked 124.9% quarter-on-quarter in 2024. Lenders now demand higher equity buffers and stronger tenant covenants, shrinking debt-driven buyer pools. Currency hedging adds cost for overseas investors, nudging them toward REIT or joint-venture routes. Cash-rich sovereign funds gain a tactical edge in this climate[3]Central Bank of the UAE, “Quarterly Financial Stability Report – Q4 2024,” Central Bank of the UAE, centralbank.ae.
Freehold Ownership Restrictions Limit Institutional Capital Access
Dubai offers liberal title, but most other emirates rely on 99-year or Musataha constructs that fail many institutional mandates. Recent moves to grant freehold on Sheikh Zayed Road and Jaddaf signal progress, yet the rollout lags investor appetite. As a result, prime Dubai assets command scarcity premiums while equally strong Abu Dhabi properties remain mispriced. Investors increasingly structure deals through on-shore partners or free-zone entities at the cost of extra compliance work.
Segment Analysis
By Property Type: Offices Retain Scale While Logistics Accelerates
Offices captured 46.56% UAE Commercial Real Estate market share in 2024 amid scarce Grade A supply and unabated headquarters demand. DIFC rents rose beyond USD 100 per ft² in 2024, helping offices anchor revenue even as logistics races ahead. Tenant mixes are diversifying toward fintech and professional services, uplifting fit-out standards. Secondary districts tap overflow demand and offer speculative retrofit plays for investors.
Warehouse rates in Dubai South rose above USD 12 per m² monthly, a record for the sub-market. Aldar’s USD 272 million logistics program and KEZAD’s land grants illustrate institutional confidence. Modern facilities emphasize sustainability under the Dubai Building Code, integrating rooftop solar and automated racking to satisfy global occupiers. Developers able to deliver turnkey industrial hubs with bonded-zone perks hold a clear competitive moat.
Note: Segment shares of all individual segments available upon report purchase
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By Business Model: Sales Lead Yet Rentals Gain Momentum
Sales generated 60.45% of the UAE Commercial Real Estate market size in 2024, fueled by individual buyers pursuing Golden Visa eligibility and capital gains. However, rentals are advancing at a 6.2% CAGR as institutions prefer predictable yield. The UAE Commercial Real Estate market share for rentals is set to expand once the Abu Dhabi rental index aligns contract rates with market evidence. Grade A offices and last-mile warehouses dominate long-term lease demand since corporate occupiers value flexibility and ESG-ready premises. PropTech-driven platforms shorten lease cycles and enhance tenant engagement, reinforcing the shift toward income-oriented strategies.
By End-User: Corporate Demand Dominates While Retail Investors Rise
Corporates and SMEs held 75.68% market share in 2024 because of the Emirates’ pro-business stance and superior connectivity. Regional headquarters mandates from multinationals secure multi-floor leases and longer tenures, stabilizing cash flows. SMEs leverage co-working and serviced offices to gain prestigious addresses without capex. Individual investors, growing at a 6.7% CAGR, benefit from relaxed Golden Visa terms that remove down-payment barriers. Their entry reshapes demand for small ticket offices and street-level retail, injecting liquidity into secondary stock. Government entities and sovereign funds pursue trophy assets and regulatory-compliant data centers, anchoring the investment base.
Note: Segment shares of all individual segments available upon report purchase
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Geography Analysis
Dubai maintained a 71.40% share of the UAE Commercial Real Estate market in 2024, underscored by USD 24.54 billion in transactions across 9,038 deals. In a clear reflection of the flight-to-quality trend, office sales experienced notable growth, achieving significant results.. Newly approved freehold zones along Sheikh Zayed Road and Jaddaf improve accessibility for foreign capital, while the Dubai 2040 plan redistributes growth into five urban centers. Retail posted USD 872 million in trades as tourism rebounded, aided by strategic events and retail calendar activations.
Abu Dhabi ranks second, recording USD 6.89 billion in closed deals during Q1 2025, up 34.5%. Prime office occupancy of 95% and a forthcoming rental index suggest continued revenue growth for landlords. The Aldar-Mubadala USD 8.17 billion platform accelerates mixed-use and logistics developments, complemented by KEZAD’s warehousing rollout. ADGM’s sustainable-finance rulebook fuels demand for green-certified properties that enable corporates to meet ESG pledges.
Ras Al Khaimah tops growth at 6.5% CAGR through 2030, owing to industrial zone incentives and lower land costs. Sharjah and the northern emirates catch spillover from Dubai constraints, offering SMEs attractive entry points. A federal climate-change law standardizes building codes across emirates, leveling compliance and creating a unified sustainability baseline that supports investor confidence.
Competitive Landscape
Market concentration is moderate. Emaar, Aldar, and TECOM Group together hold 18% revenue, leaving room for challengers. Aldar’s USD 626 million acquisition of a DIFC tower made it the first UAE developer with assets in both DIFC and ADGM, demonstrating cross-city diversification. TECOM added USD 196 million in Office Park assets to deepen its tech-oriented portfolio. Brookfield and Meraas launched a USD 1.36 billion retail joint venture that blends global capital with local execution, signaling sustained foreign appetite.
Technology is a rising differentiator. Landlords adopting AI-based management report 5-7% cost savings and higher retention, creating a service gap between advanced and legacy operators. White-space opportunities are evident in data centers and industrial stock across secondary emirates where supply trails demand. Global REITs enter through long-lease warehouse acquisitions, challenging the historical dominance of developer-owners. Sustainability mandates under the Dubai Building Code reward early movers that integrate renewable energy and smart-metering upfront, easing tenant due diligence burdens.
UAE Commercial Real Estate Industry Leaders
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Emaar Properties PJSC
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Aldar Properties PJSC
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TECOM Group PJSC
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Majid Al Futtaim Holding LLC
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Nakheel PJSC
- *Disclaimer: Major Players sorted in no particular order
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Recent Industry Developments
- May 2025: OpenAI partnered on a 5-gigawatt data-center campus in Abu Dhabi, marking one of the world’s largest AI infrastructure commitments.
- April 2025: Du signed a USD 545 million hyperscale data-center deal with Microsoft to expand national cloud capacity.
- December 2024: Aldar closed a USD 626 million acquisition of a DIFC commercial tower from H&H Development, enlarging its Grade A footprint.
- October 2024: TECOM Group completed the USD 196 million Office Park purchase in Dubai Internet City, lifting its annual investments above USD 740 million.
UAE Commercial Real Estate Market Report Scope
Commercial real estate is a property used exclusively for business-related purposes or to provide a workspace rather than a living space, which would instead constitute the residential real estate. Commercial real estate is often leased to tenants to conduct income-generating activities. In general, it includes buildings used for commercial purposes, such as office buildings, warehouses, and retail buildings (e.g., convenience stores, big-box stores, and shopping malls). This report aims to provide a detailed analysis of the UAE commercial real estate market. It focuses on the market dynamics, technological trends, insights, government initiatives taken in the commercial real estate sector, and COVID-19 impact on the market. Also, it analyzes the key players in the market and the competitive landscape.
The commercial real estate market in the United Arab Emirates is segmented by type and key cities. The report offers market size and forecast for the UAE commercial real estate market in value (USD billion) for the above segments.
By Property Type
| Offices |
| Retail |
| Logistics |
| Others (industrial real estate, hospitality real estate, etc.) |
By Business Model
| Sales |
| Rental |
By End-user
| Individuals / Households |
| Corporates & SMEs |
| Others |
By Geography
| Dubai |
| Abu Dhabi |
| Sharjah |
| Ras Al Khaimah |
| Rest of UAE |
| By Property Type | Offices |
| Retail | |
| Logistics | |
| Others (industrial real estate, hospitality real estate, etc.) | |
| By Business Model | Sales |
| Rental | |
| By End-user | Individuals / Households |
| Corporates & SMEs | |
| Others | |
| By Geography | Dubai |
| Abu Dhabi | |
| Sharjah | |
| Ras Al Khaimah | |
| Rest of UAE |
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Key Questions Answered in the Report
How large is the UAE Commercial Real Estate market in 2025?
The UAE Commercial Real Estate market size reached USD 51.05 billion in 2025 and is projected to hit USD 68.81 billion by 2030.
The UAE Commercial Real Estate market size reached USD 51.05 billion in 2025 and is projected to hit USD 68.81 billion by 2030.
Logistics facilities lead growth at a 7.1% CAGR through 2030 as manufacturing localization and e-commerce boost warehouse demand.
What drives the rental outlook for prime offices?
Scarce Grade A vacancies of 8.6% in Dubai and 2.3% in Abu Dhabi are escalating rents and prompting longer tenant commitments.
Scarce Grade A vacancies of 8.6% in Dubai and 2.3% in Abu Dhabi are escalating rents and prompting longer tenant commitments.
Removal of down-payment thresholds allows earlier off-plan entry, attracting more foreign capital and widening buyer diversity.
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