Australia Commercial Real Estate Market Size & Share Analysis - Growth Trends & Forecasts (2025 - 2030)

The Australia Commercial Real Estate Market Report is Segmented by Property Type (Offices, Retail and More), by Business Model (Rental and Sales), by End User (Individuals / Households, Corporates & SMEs and More) and by Region (New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland and More). The Report Offers Market Size and Forecasts in Value (USD) for all the Above Segments.

Australia Commercial Real Estate Market Size and Share

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Australia Commercial Real Estate Market Analysis by Mordor Intelligence

The Australia commercial real estate market is valued at USD 52.33 billion in 2025 and is forecast to reach USD 67.81 billion by 2030, reflecting a 5.32% CAGR over 2025-2030. This steady expansion signals the sector’s resilience as post-pandemic recovery, government infrastructure spending, and accelerating digitalization lift demand across offices, logistics assets, hotels, and data-center facilities. Institutional investors are rotating capital toward core assets in Sydney and Melbourne, while data-localization rules are propelling hyperscale and edge data-center pipelines in several metropolitan areas. Hybrid work adoption continues to reshape CBD office requirements, yet premium ESG-compliant buildings in connectivity-rich precincts attract flight-to-quality tenants willing to pay rental premiums. Meanwhile, elevated construction costs and labor shortages are curbing new supply, tightening vacancy in prime logistics hubs and further supporting rent growth.

Key Report Takeaways

  • By property type, offices held a 31.0% revenue share of the Australian commercial real estate market in 2024, while logistics assets are projected to grow at a 5.91% CAGR to 2030.
  • By business model, the sales segment commanded 72.0% of the Australian commercial real estate market share in 2024; rentals are expected to advance at a 6.01% CAGR through 2030.
  • By end-user, corporates and SMEs accounted for a 60.0% share of the Australian commercial real estate market size in 2024, whereas the individuals/households segment is expanding at a 6.01% CAGR to 2030.
  • By geography, New South Wales led with 37.0% market share in 2024; Queensland is the fastest-growing region, rising at a 5.96% CAGR to 2030 Brisbane Times.

Segment Analysis

By Property Type: Logistics Drives Structural Transformation

Logistics captured 5.91% CAGR growth momentum and remains the fastest-advancing segment, while offices retained the largest 31% share of the Australia commercial real estate market in 2024. E-commerce penetration, onshoring of inventories, and automation investments have converted fulfillment centers into critical infrastructure, anchoring long-term demand. Vacancy below 1% in core east-coast corridors combined with restrictive land-use policies elevates pricing power for institutional landlords. Major players such as Goodman Group and GPT are scaling speculative builds to meet pre-commitments from retailers and 3PLs, often securing lease terms exceeding 10 years. Data-center campuses, classified as systems of national significance, add a high-value layer within industrial estates, attracting foreign capital and specialty operators.

Modern warehouses increasingly incorporate robotics, mezzanine floors, and high-capacity power to accommodate micro-fulfillment and cold-chain functions. These features command rental uplifts of 15%-20% compared with legacy stock. With the Australia commercial real estate market size for logistics assets projected to expand at 5.91% CAGR through 2030, investors view the segment as a secular outperformer. In contrast, office landlords are recalibrating portfolios by divesting non-core B-grade towers and reinvesting in mixed-use redevelopments to mitigate prolonged occupancy pressure.

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Note: Segment shares of all individual segments available upon report purchase

By Business Model: Rental Segment Gains Momentum

The sales model represented 72% of 2024 transaction value, yet the rental model posted the strongest 6.01% CAGR outlook, mirroring corporate moves to maintain balance-sheet agility. Sale-leaseback deals allow occupiers to unlock capital while preserving operational control, exemplified by Dexus’s USD 300 million fundraising for its second opportunity fund targeting such transactions. Build-to-rent logistics and data-center projects offer institutional investors stable cash flows indexed to CPI, making them core allocations in diversified portfolios. As a result, the Australia commercial real estate market size attributed to rental agreements is set to expand steadily through 2030.

Landlords leveraging technology-enabled property-management systems deliver ESG upgrades, energy monitoring, and predictive maintenance at scale, reducing occupant costs and underpinning longer lease renewals. Flexible lease structures and options for expansion align with occupiers’ shifting headcount forecasts under hybrid work. Consequently, competition is intensifying among landlords to provide turnkey, sustainability-compliant spaces, reinforcing the shift toward the rental paradigm within the Australia commercial real estate market.

By End-User: Corporate Demand Evolution

Corporates and SMEs commanded a 60% share in 2024, reflecting Australia’s services-oriented economy. However, individuals and households, supported by fractional ownership platforms, are matching that segment’s 6.01% CAGR and diversifying the investor base. SMEs lead the adoption of coworking solutions and short-term industrial leases, reducing average lease terms to around five years in metropolitan submarkets. Larger corporates focus on premium health-certified environments to attract and retain talent, increasing demand for WELL-rated buildings that integrate natural light, collaborative zones, and touchless technologies.

High-net-worth individuals are allocating to neighborhood retail and small industrial strata through syndicates and crowdfunding vehicles. These retail investors prize assets with strong ESG credentials and resilient income profiles, creating liquidity for smaller lot sizes. The trend widens demand diversity and supports liquidity depth across asset classes in the Australia commercial real estate market.

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Note: Segment shares of all individual segments available upon report purchase

Geography Analysis

New South Wales held a 37% share of the Australia commercial real estate market in 2024, anchored by Sydney’s status as the nation’s financial hub and by sustained institutional interest in its core office towers. State infrastructure rollouts such as the Sydney Metro extensions, completed in August 2024, are improving accessibility and supporting land-value appreciation along transit corridors. Office landlords in the Barangaroo precinct benefit from flight-to-quality leasing, while logistics investors target Western Sydney sub-markets near the new airport where inbound cargo capacity is set to soar.

Queensland represents the fastest-growing geography with a 5.96% CAGR projection through 2030, buoyed by Olympic-related capital projects and an expanding Brisbane-Toowoomba logistics spine. The Cross River Rail and port upgrades are drawing national retailers to secure warehouse capacity ahead of supply shortages, compressing yields across industrial estates[2]John Forrest, “Cross-River Rail Economic Benefits Statement,” Queensland Government, infrastructure.qld.gov.au. Brisbane CBD absorption improved despite hybrid work trends, aided by state incentives for back-office consolidation and by relocations from southern states seeking lower occupational costs. Tourism-driven hotel demand in the Gold Coast and Sunshine Coast adds a complementary boost to the regional commercial mix.

Victoria faces a slower near-term recovery as Melbourne’s office vacancy hovers near 20%, reflecting entrenched hybrid work culture and substantial new supply completions. Nonetheless, its western industrial belt benefits from robust e-commerce activity and manufacturing reshoring, delivering rental growth that outpaces national averages. Western Australia’s revival is tied to commodities expansion and Perth’s emergence as a secondary data-center node serving Indo-Pacific traffic, supported by the state’s relatively low land costs and ample renewable-energy potential. Collectively, these regional dynamics reinforce the structural bifurcation between prime assets in core east-coast locations and higher-yielding opportunities in emerging logistics and digital-infrastructure corridors across the wider Australia commercial real estate market.

Competitive Landscape

Australia’s commercial property arena exhibits moderate concentration, with the top five A-REITs controlling close to 55% of listed market capitalization. Goodman Group, which holds a 41.7% weighting in the S&P/ASX 200 A-REIT index, leverages a USD 55.1 billion global portfolio heavily skewed toward logistics and data-center developments, and achieved 15% profit growth in FY 2024[3]Australian Securities Exchange, “ASX 200 Property Trusts Index Methodology,” Australian Securities Exchange, asx.com.au. Dexus manages USD 38.2 billion in domestic assets and maintains occupancy above 94% across office and industrial holdings through proactive lease renewals and capital recycling strategies. These leaders continue to access competitively priced debt, sustaining development pipelines even as financing conditions tighten.

Competition is intensifying as international capital flows into niche segments. Blackstone’s USD 16.8 billion acquisition of AirTrunk underscores growing demand for hyperscale data-center exposure. Domestic REITs respond by forming joint ventures with sovereign funds to scale faster and share construction risk in technology-heavy projects. Simultaneously, mid-tier players such as Centuria focus on specialized industrial REIT vehicles targeting last-mile warehouses in undersupplied sub-markets, exploiting local development expertise to gain yield premiums.

Technology deployment and ESG leadership are emerging as decisive differentiators. Market leaders integrate PropTech solutions for real-time energy tracking, predictive maintenance, and tenant-experience applications, enhancing operational efficiency and retention rates. Sustainable finance instruments, including green bonds issued by Lendlease and Charter Hall, lower funding costs for certified developments and reinforce reputational standing with institutional investors. As hybrid work patterns redefine occupier priorities, landlords that offer adaptable floorplates, health-certified environments, and digital connectivity are best placed to capture evolving demand within the Australia commercial real estate market.

Australia Commercial Real Estate Industry Leaders

  1. Dexus

  2. Goodman Group

  3. GPT Group

  4. Charter Hall Group

  5. Mirvac Group

  6. *Disclaimer: Major Players sorted in no particular order
Australia Commercial Real Estate Market Concentration
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Recent Industry Developments

  • February 2025: Scentre Group delivered USD 397 million Funds From Operations for H1 2024, with 99.3% portfolio occupancy and a USD 2.24 billion development pipeline.
  • November 2024: Scentre Group recorded 429 million customer visits across its Westfield centers, up 2.1% year-on-year.
  • October 2024: CIMIC Group accelerated data-center construction capabilities, targeting an additional 1,500 MW national capacity by 2030.
  • September 2024: Blackstone agreed to acquire AirTrunk for USD 16.8 billion, underscoring global appetite for Australian digital-infrastructure assets.

Table of Contents for Australia Commercial Real Estate Industry Report

1. Introduction

  • 1.1 Study Assumptions & Market Definition
  • 1.2 Scope of the Study

2. Research Methodology

3. Executive Summary

4. Market Landscape

  • 4.1 Market Overview
  • 4.2 Commercial Real-Estate Buying Trends – Socio-economic & Demographic Insights
  • 4.3 Rental Yield Analysis
  • 4.4 Capital-Market Penetration & REIT Presence
  • 4.5 Regulatory Outlook
  • 4.6 Technological Outlook
  • 4.7 Insights into Real-Estate Tech and Start-ups Active in the Segment
  • 4.8 Insights into Existing and Upcoming Projects
  • 4.9 Market Drivers
    • 4.9.1 Surge in Institutional Capital Allocation to Core Office Assets
    • 4.9.2 Accelerated Demand for Prime Industrial & Logistics Space Driven by E-Commerce
    • 4.9.3 Government-backed Infrastructure Pipeline Lifting Commercial Land Values
    • 4.9.4 Re-rating of ESG-Compliant Green Buildings Unlocking Premium Rents
    • 4.9.5 Rebound in International Tourism Revitalising CBD Hotel RevPAR
    • 4.9.6 Data-Localisation Mandates Fueling Edge Data-Centre Development
  • 4.10 Market Restraints
    • 4.10.1 Persistent Work-from-Home Adoption Softening CBD Office Net Absorption
    • 4.10.2 Elevated Construction Costs & Labour Shortages Delaying Project Delivery
    • 4.10.3 Monetary Tightening and Rising Cap Rates Compressing Transactions
    • 4.10.4 Heightened Climate-Risk Exposure Raising Insurance Premiums for Coastal Assets
  • 4.11 Value / Supply-Chain Analysis
    • 4.11.1 Overview
    • 4.11.2 Real-Estate Developers & Contractors – Key Quantitative and Qualitative Insights
    • 4.11.3 Real-Estate Brokers & Agents – Key Quantitative and Qualitative Insights
    • 4.11.4 Property-Management Companies – Key Quantitative and Qualitative Insights
    • 4.11.5 Insights on Valuation Advisory and Other Real-Estate Services
    • 4.11.6 State of the Building-Materials Industry & Partnerships with Key Developers
    • 4.11.7 Insights on Key Strategic Real-Estate Investors / Buyers in the Market
  • 4.12 Porter’s Five Forces
    • 4.12.1 Bargaining Power of Suppliers
    • 4.12.2 Bargaining Power of Buyers
    • 4.12.3 Threat of New Entrants
    • 4.12.4 Threat of Substitutes
    • 4.12.5 Intensity of Competitive Rivalry

5. Market Size & Growth Forecasts (Value)

  • 5.1 By Property Type
    • 5.1.1 Offices
    • 5.1.2 Retail
    • 5.1.3 Logistics
    • 5.1.4 Others (industrial real estate, hospitality real estate, etc.)
  • 5.2 By Business Model
    • 5.2.1 Sales
    • 5.2.2 Rental
  • 5.3 By End-user
    • 5.3.1 Individuals / Households
    • 5.3.2 Corporates & SMEs
    • 5.3.3 Others
  • 5.4 By Region
    • 5.4.1 New South Wales
    • 5.4.2 Victoria
    • 5.4.3 Queensland
    • 5.4.4 Western Australia
    • 5.4.5 South Australia
    • 5.4.6 Australian Capital Territory
    • 5.4.7 Tasmania
    • 5.4.8 Northern Territory

6. Competitive Landscape

  • 6.1 Market Concentration
  • 6.2 Strategic Moves
  • 6.3 Market Share Analysis
  • 6.4 Company Profiles {(includes Global level Overview, Market level overview, Core Segments, Financials as available, Strategic Information, Market Rank/Share for key companies, Products & Services, and Recent Developments)}
    • 6.4.1 Dexus
    • 6.4.2 Goodman Group
    • 6.4.3 GPT Group
    • 6.4.4 Charter Hall Group
    • 6.4.5 Mirvac Group
    • 6.4.6 Stockland
    • 6.4.7 Lendlease Corporation
    • 6.4.8 Scentre Group
    • 6.4.9 Vicinity Centres
    • 6.4.10 Cromwell Property Group
    • 6.4.11 Centuria Capital Group
    • 6.4.12 Investa Property Group
    • 6.4.13 Frasers Property Australia
    • 6.4.14 Growthpoint Properties Australia
    • 6.4.15 AMP Capital Investors
    • 6.4.16 Brookfield Asset Management (Australia)
    • 6.4.17 Blackstone Real Estate (Australia)
    • 6.4.18 GIC Real Estate (Australia)
    • 6.4.19 LaSalle Investment Management (Australia)
    • 6.4.20 QIC Real Estate

7. Market Opportunities & Future Outlook

  • 7.1 White-Space & Unmet-Need Assessment
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Australia Commercial Real Estate Market Report Scope

Commercial real estate (CRE) is a property used exclusively for business or workplace purposes or to generate cash flow in some way for the owner or lessee.

Australia's commercial real estate market is segmented by type (office, retail, industrial and logistics, hospitality, and others) and by key cities (Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Adelaide, Canberra, and Perth).

The report offers market size and forecasts for the Australian commercial real estate market in terms of value (USD) for all the above segments.

By Property Type Offices
Retail
Logistics
Others (industrial real estate, hospitality real estate, etc.)
By Business Model Sales
Rental
By End-user Individuals / Households
Corporates & SMEs
Others
By Region New South Wales
Victoria
Queensland
Western Australia
South Australia
Australian Capital Territory
Tasmania
Northern Territory
By Property Type
Offices
Retail
Logistics
Others (industrial real estate, hospitality real estate, etc.)
By Business Model
Sales
Rental
By End-user
Individuals / Households
Corporates & SMEs
Others
By Region
New South Wales
Victoria
Queensland
Western Australia
South Australia
Australian Capital Territory
Tasmania
Northern Territory
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Key Questions Answered in the Report

What is the current value of the Australia commercial real estate market?

The market is valued at USD 52.33 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 67.81 billion by 2030.

Which property type holds the largest share?

Office assets lead with a 31% revenue share in 2024, although logistics assets demonstrate the fastest growth.

Why are logistics facilities expanding faster than offices?

E-commerce growth, supply-chain onshoring, and automation requirements have reduced vacancy to around 1%, pushing rents higher and spurring new warehouse development.

Which region is growing the quickest?

Queensland posts the fastest CAGR at 5.96% through 2030, supported by Olympic infrastructure projects and expanding logistics corridors.

How is hybrid work influencing office demand?

Regular remote work by 36% of employees is curbing net absorption and elevating vacancy, prompting occupiers to consolidate into premium, amenity-rich buildings.

What role does ESG compliance play in property values?

Certified green buildings command rental premiums and attract institutional capital, especially as mandatory climate-disclosure rules take effect from 2025.

Australia Commercial Real Estate Market Report Snapshots