AIRCRAFT MANUFACTURING MARKET SIZE & SHARE ANALYSIS - GROWTH TRENDS AND FORECAST (2025 - 2030)

Global Aircraft Manufacturing Market Trends and Insights

Surging Narrowbody Fleet Renewal for Fuel Efficiency

Surging narrowbody fleet renewal for fuel efficiency continues to reshape order books as airlines seek up to 20% fuel-burn savings from re-engined single-aisle programs. Airbus aims to increase annual deliveries to 820 units in 2025, compared with 766 in 2024, to satisfy this near-term replacement wave.^{[1]Source: Airbus, “Airbus Announces 2024 Results,” airbus.com} United Airlines has shifted incremental capacity toward A321neo aircraft to offset certification delays affecting the B737 MAX 10 line. These purchasing moves improve operating margins because new engines cut fuel costs, typically representing 25–30% of an airline’s expense base. The effort also aligns with EU policy that mandates a 10% sustainable aviation fuel blend by 2030, reinforcing fleet renewal as the most immediate emissions-reduction lever.

Expansion of LCCs in Emerging Economies

Expanding LCCs in emerging economies sustains a high-cycle demand profile for narrowbodies equipped for quick turnarounds. LCCs now account for more than 40% of Latin American passenger traffic, reflecting structural cost advantages over legacy network airlines. AirAsia carried 63 million passengers in 2024, marking an 11% year-on-year increase as travel restrictions eased. IndiGo operates a fleet exceeding 430 aircraft and holds firm commitments for 226 additional MAX units, while Akasa Air targets 200-plus deliveries within eight years to deepen Indian domestic coverage. The resulting network density requires fuel-efficient single-aisle jets configured with dense seating to sustain profitability on short-haul, point-to-point routes.

Defense Modernization Budgets Boosting Multi-Role Fighter Procurement

Defense modernization budgets boost multi-role fighter procurement as governments respond to new security priorities. The US Department of Defense (DoD) has requested USD 153.30 billion for aircraft procurement in FY 2026, with reconciliation options that could drive the total above USD 200 billion. Poland’s PLN 175 billion (USD 48.40 billion) defense plan dedicates significant outlays for fighters and helicopters to strengthen NATO interoperability. Across Europe, defense ministries aim to close an estimated USD 1.8 trillion investment gap through 2034, which is elevating production rates for F-35, Eurofighter, and Rafale platforms. These modernization cycles create a stable revenue stream for prime contractors, supporting supply-chain investment even if commercial output fluctuates.

Government Incentives for SAF-Ready Airframes

Government incentives for SAF-ready airframes are accelerating product-development roadmaps toward complete fuel-system compatibility.^{[2] D Young & Co., “Sustainable Aviation Fuel,” dyoung.com} The UK and European Union (EU) have legislated phased blending mandates culminating in 70% sustainable aviation fuel by 2050, creating long-term regulatory certainty. Airbus consumed 11 million liters of SAF in 2023 and targets a 15% share of its total fuel use in 2024 as it scales delivery-flight adoption. Strategic partnerships such as the Airbus–TotalEnergies agreement provide a secure downstream supply, which de-risks certification timelines and engine recalibration programs. These collaborations encourage redesigns, including materials resistant to higher aromatics and new fuel-pump tolerances, embedding SAF readiness into future production standards.

Supply-Chain Disruption of Aerospace-Grade Titanium

Supply-chain disruption of aerospace-grade titanium persists as sanctions limit access to Russian VSMPO-Avisma output, and certification of alternative mills lags demand. Spot prices for titanium sponge have risen above CNY 50,000 (USD 7,030) per ton, adding cost pressure throughout the fuselage and landing-gear value chain. FAA investigations into counterfeit material have tightened inspection protocols, extending component lead times for both Boeing and Airbus programs. Saudi Arabia’s planned capacity expansion offers potential relief, yet full aerospace qualification typically requires three to five years before serial shipments commence. These supply constraints force OEMs to hold higher safety stocks, inflating working capital and complicating near-term ramp-up plans.

Skilled-Labor Shortage in Advanced-Composites Lay-Up

A skilled-labor shortage in advanced-composites lay-up constrains production throughput despite robust order books. The GAO reported that 15 of 17 surveyed aerospace manufacturers lack sufficient composites technicians to meet scheduled output targets. McKinsey estimates a four-to-six-percentage-point quality gap tied to workforce churn, underscoring the impact on supplier performance. Mexico’s aerospace sector has expanded to 60,000 employees, supported by specialized training centers, yet North American assembly plants still face bottlenecks as demand outstrips available talent. Certification courses for carbon-fiber lay-up span up to six months, limiting immediate capacity expansion and compelling firms to automate select processes to maintain delivery schedules.

Segment Analysis

By Aircraft Type: Business Jets Drive Premium Growth

The aircraft manufacturing market size for narrowbody models stood at USD 263.5 billion in 2024, representing 63.45% of total revenue. Although business jets have smaller absolute sales, they are forecast to command USD 73.9 billion by 2030 on a 7.54% CAGR trajectory, the fastest within the aircraft manufacturing market.^{[3]Honeywell, “2024 Business Aviation Outlook,” aerospace.honeywell.com}

Unit economics favor large-cabin variants such as Gulfstream’s G700, certified in 2024 with a 7,750-nautical-mile range, which capture premium margins. Widebody programs face supply-chain-driven rate caps, with A350 monthly output limited to six. Regional jets and turboprops benefit from aging-fleet replacement cycling, especially across the Asia-Pacific’s island networks. Helicopters post steady defense-linked orders, whereas amphibious aircraft remain niche, focused on firefighting and remote-island connectivity.

Note: Segment shares of all individual segments available upon report purchase

By Application: Military Acceleration Amid Commercial Dominance

Commercial passenger fleets generated USD 288.3 billion in 2024, translating to a 69.49% market share in aircraft manufacturing. Defense spending now underwrites a 6.40% CAGR for combat and support platforms, lifting the segment toward USD 142 billion by 2030.

Lockheed Martin’s Aeronautics division recorded USD 7.06 billion in sales in Q1 2025 on more substantial F-35 volume. Cargo conversions expand as e-commerce realigns logistics, with ASL Airlines adding another B737-800BCF for Australia-Asia lanes. Business and private aviation retain momentum as operators signal unchanged or higher flight activity through 2025, supporting jet backlog stability.

By Propulsion Technology: Hydrogen Innovation Amid Conventional Dominance

Conventional and SAF-ready aircraft commanded 81.42% of 2024 revenue, underscoring the infrastructure entrenchment around kerosene supply chains. The aircraft manufacturing market share for hydrogen-propulsion prototypes remains small but logs an 8.37% CAGR through 2030, lifted by ZEROe and regional-turboprop demonstrators.

Rolls-Royce and GE Aviation intend to certify 100% SAF compatibility across in-service engines by 2030, reduce EUR 2.40 billion (USD 2.83 billion) in private capital to incubate hybrid-electric and fuel-cell programs, with emission-reduction targets of 30% relative to today’s single-aisles.

Note: Segment shares of all individual segments available upon report purchase

Geography Analysis

North America generated nearly USD 247 billion in revenue in 2024, equal to 59.49% of the aircraft manufacturing market. Continued Pentagon procurement and established supply networks anchor the region’s primacy. Boeing delivered 130 commercial aircraft in Q1 2025 and maintains a B737 MAX production ceiling of 38 monthly units pending FAA clearance. Lockheed Martin’s F-35 ramp and Textron’s multi-segment exposure reinforce the domestic manufacturing base.

Asia-Pacific contributed over 18% of 2024 revenue but is the fastest-growing territory, advancing at a 6.98% CAGR. Airbus projects the region will require 19,500 aircraft through 2043, or 46% of global demand, driven by 4.80% annual passenger growth versus 3.60% worldwide.^{[4]Airbus, “Asia-Pacific Market Forecast,” airbus.com} India’s carriers have almost 1,900 aircraft on order, and the government plans include 150 new airports by 2030 to accommodate traffic expansion. COMAC accelerates its Southeast Asia push via Air Cambodia’s 10-unit C909 commitment, diversifying the regional supplier mix.

Europe secured nearly 17% of 2024 revenue, its outlook buoyed by clean-propulsion R&D and Airbus’s Toulouse manufacturing cadence. The ReFuelEU regulation stipulates escalating SAF blends that reshape engine certifications and fuel-system designs. Latin America rides an aviation renaissance as LCC penetration surpasses 40% of passenger traffic; USD 24 billion in airport projects hint at long-term fleet renewal upside. The Middle East and Africa collectively remain below 6% share but benefit from national-carrier fleet modernization, albeit moderated by macroeconomic volatility and uneven infrastructure rollout.