US Aviation Market Size and Share

US Aviation Market (2026 - 2031)
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US Aviation Market Analysis by Mordor Intelligence

The US aviation market size is expected to grow from USD 85.50 billion in 2025 to USD 89.20 billion in 2026 and is projected to reach USD 107.78 billion by 2031 at a 3.86% CAGR. Capacity and supply constraints are shaping the next phase, as operators extend aircraft service life. At the same time, new deliveries remain limited, leading to an increased emphasis on reliability, network optimization, and fuel efficiency across fleets. Commercial aviation holds the largest revenue base due to sustained narrowbody renewal. In contrast, military aviation is the fastest-growing segment, supported by elevated defense procurement and sustainment priorities that stabilize OEM backlogs and MRO pipelines. The policy and infrastructure backdrop remains mixed, with airport and airspace modernization advancing under the FAA’s national program and North American profitability lagging Europe, according to the global association outlook for 2026. Airlines, manufacturers, and defense primes continue to recalibrate capital spending and contracting structures to mitigate delayed timelines, supplier fragility, and workforce shortages that influence asset utilization and route economics.

Key Report Takeaways

  • By aircraft type, commercial aviation led with 54.20% revenue share in 2025, while military aviation recorded the highest projected CAGR at 4.45% through 2031.
  • By propulsion technology, turbofan engines held a 55.10% share of the US aviation market in 2025, while turboshaft systems are projected to expand at a 4.32% CAGR through 2031.
  • By end user, civil and commercial operators accounted for 63.45% in 2025, while government and defense agencies are projected to grow at a 4.55% CAGR through 2031.

Note: Market size and forecast figures in this report are generated using Mordor Intelligence’s proprietary estimation framework, updated with the latest available data and insights as of January 2026.

Segment Analysis

By Aircraft Type: Commercial Volume Leads, Defense Growth Outpaces on Modernization

Commercial aviation captured 54.2% of the market share in 2025, and military aviation is projected to grow at the fastest rate with a 4.45% CAGR through 2031. Within commercial fleets, narrowbody aircraft remain central to network plans as carriers invest in fuel-efficient types to improve seat-mile economics and restore capacity with reliability. Delivery schedules and certification timelines have led operators to extend aircraft life, raising maintenance exposure and keeping lease markets tight across popular variants in the US aviation market. Airlines with strong balance sheets placed strategic orders to secure multi-year delivery positions, which helps de-risk replacement cycles once production stabilizes. 

Defense demand anchors growth for the fastest-rising segment as procurement and sustainment funding levels prioritize fifth-generation fleets and next-generation platforms. The F-35 enterprise continues to scale across US services and partner nations through multi-lot awards that underpin system upgrades and maintain a deep industrial footprint. General aviation sustained healthy large-cabin and midsize jet deliveries in 2025, supported by corporate and high-net-worth demand and strengthened by OEM product refresh initiatives and avionics upgrades. These dynamics set a balanced foundation for the market as commercial carriers optimize gauge and schedule integrity, and defense programs stabilize supplier utilization with longer-horizon commitments.

US Aviation Market: Market Share by Aircraft Type
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By Propulsion Technology: Turbofans Dominate Installed Base, Turboshafts Climb on Rotorcraft Programs

Turbofan engines secured 55.1% of the market share by propulsion in 2025, reflecting the central role of efficient narrowbody and widebody platforms in carrier economics. Engine delivery pacing and shop visit schedules remain critical variables for fleet availability, which places a premium on risk sharing with OEMs and lessors to maintain day-to-day dispatch reliability in the US aviation market. Turboprops maintain a durable presence on short-haul and special-mission routes, though pilot supply and gauge economics temper large-scale fleet expansion.

Turboshaft engines are set to expand at a 4.32% CAGR as rotorcraft programs benefit from defense modernization and stable commercial niches, aided by advances in avionics and mission equipment. Bell’s military portfolio posted strong growth in 2025, supporting the supply chain outlook for engines, transmissions, and composite structures in this category. Emerging electric, hybrid-electric, and hydrogen-electric systems are building test experience and orders in early-stage applications, with industry pilots targeting regional routes, short-haul cargo, and special missions that can benefit from lower emissions and simplified maintenance. The US aviation market will see gradual integration of these alternatives as certification pathways, infrastructure, and energy supply chains mature in parallel with OEM development roadmaps.

By End User: Civil and Commercial Operators Drive Volume, Government Agencies Lead Growth

Civil and commercial operators held a 63.45% share of the market in 2025, comprising network carriers, cargo integrators, regionals, and business aviation providers that together set the demand tone for OEMs and MROs. Near-term plans emphasize efficiency and reliability over raw capacity growth, given aircraft availability and engine shop capacity, which keeps schedule discipline tight across hubs and focus cities in the US aviation market. Business aviation demand remained firm in 2025 with new model milestones and deliveries across light, midsize, and large-cabin segments, supported by backlogs and service programs.

Government and defense agencies are the fastest-growing end-user, projected to expand at a 4.55% CAGR, driven by sustained procurement and robust sustainment priorities that extend through the planning horizon. Multi-year awards across fighter, bomber, and mobility fleets, combined with software and sensor upgrade cycles, create recurring demand for airframes, engines, and mission systems. The F-35 enterprise remains a cornerstone, with multi-lot procurement and a growing global installed base that deepens training, logistics, and depot workloads across the value chain, supporting capacity utilization for US-based suppliers. Together, these demand profiles keep the US aviation market anchored by large civil operators while government users lift growth at the margins through multi-decade platform commitments.

US Aviation Market: Market Share by End User
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Geography Analysis

Hub concentration remains a key characteristic, with the largest US airports influencing throughput, resource allocation, and air traffic flow management across regions. Systemwide passenger numbers in late 2025 indicated increased volumes, with hubs accounting for a significant share of national enplanements. This concentration continues to impact network planning in the US aviation market. Atlanta was one of the busiest airports in the US in 2025, with other major carrier hubs such as Dallas-Fort Worth, Chicago, Denver, and Los Angeles also recording high volumes, supported by strong domestic and international connectivity. Elevated TSA throughput in early 2026 confirms resilient leisure travel, with strong peaks around holidays and major events, while business travel patterns are still stabilizing by city pair. This demand maps onto a constrained supply backdrop, reinforcing the importance of airport operations modernization and schedule predictability for the US aviation market.

The FAA’s air traffic control modernization allocates resources across towers, TRACONs, and centers, including weather and surface systems that are especially critical in regions with complex terrain and climates. Remote and digital tower mandates and trials expand options for smaller airports to secure improved services, which can stimulate regional connectivity and general aviation activity that feeds larger networks. Progress on early deployments and conversions in 2025 and 2026 provides a base to scale installations through 2028, subject to appropriations and project execution. As these upgrades reduce equipment-driven delays and enhance surface movement guidance, carriers can tighten rotation buffers and fuel planning, which supports unit cost improvements in the market.

International and cargo flows add geographic nuance to the recovery and growth mix. The global association expects Europe to post higher 2026 profits than North America, which underscores differences in market structure, currency, and regulation that influence route economics and pricing power. Global air cargo posted gains in 2025 while North American lanes adjusted to policy and capacity changes that altered modal and routing choices, with integrators and belly operators rebalancing networks. The US aviation market continues to benefit from large coastal gateways for long-haul traffic and interior hubs that connect multi-directional flow. At the same time, the cargo sector blends domestic last-mile density with international stage length optimization. Over the forecast horizon, replacement-driven fleet plans, airspace modernization, and selective infrastructure expansions will be the primary levers for enhancing capacity across the national geography.

Competitive Landscape

The US aviation market blends moderate concentration across OEM segments with fragmented operator and service layers. On the manufacturing side, large civil and defense primes hold multi-year backlogs that shape supply schedules and investment pacing for global and domestic supplier networks. Airlines deploy capacity carefully to protect yields while they secure future delivery positions through orders and options that hedge certification and production timing. In business aviation, multiple OEMs advanced new models and service enhancements through 2025 and into 2026, evidenced by first deliveries, certifications, and segment-leading volumes reported by manufacturers. These moves stabilize the broader ecosystem of avionics, interiors, completions, and MRO providers serving corporate fleets in the US aviation market.

Strategic programs and policy continue to steer competition and collaboration. The F-35 enterprise advanced with multi-lot awards covering US services, partners, and foreign military sales, which underpins both production and sustainment ramps for the long term. FAA’s nationwide modernization unlocks contracting opportunities across communications, navigation, surveillance, and decision-support layers, with early progress suggesting reductions in equipment-related delays and enhanced integration of new entrants over time. The US aviation market, therefore, sits at the intersection of long-cycle platforms, mid-cycle upgrades, and near-term operational improvements that together influence cost, reliability, and capacity.

New propulsion and AAM initiatives add optionality to future fleets and missions. Hydrogen-electric programs secured funding to industrialize fuel cell stacks for small regional aircraft and defense UAV applications, signaling cross-over potential where endurance and emissions profiles are strategic differentiators. Business and general aviation OEMs report continued delivery strength and a portfolio refresh, underpinned by avionics upgrades and type certifications that improve pilot workload and operational safety, thereby enhancing the installed-base economics for flight departments and fractional operators in the US aviation market. Meanwhile, long-term demand projections emphasize that North America’s needs will be dominated by replacement, which guides the competitive focus toward reliability, fuel efficiency, and cabin experience rather than raw capacity expansion.

US Aviation Industry Leaders

  1. Lockheed Martin Corporation

  2. The Boeing Company

  3. General Dynamics Corporation

  4. Airbus SE

  5. Textron Inc.

  6. *Disclaimer: Major Players sorted in no particular order
US Aviation Market Concentration
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Recent Industry Developments

  • January 2026: Boeing was awarded a contract to produce four additional MH-139A Grey Wolf helicopters for the US Air Force, following a USD 173 million contract. With a total contract value exceeding USD 262 million and 38 aircraft now under contract, this development emphasizes Boeing's critical role in supporting military modernization.
  • October 2025: The Boeing Company secured a deal valued at more than USD 173 million to manufacture 8 additional MH-139A Grey Wolf helicopters for the US Air Force.
  • September 2025: Lockheed Martin Corporation and the F-35 Joint Program Office (JPO) finalized an agreement for lots 18-19, covering the production and delivery of up to 296 F-35 aircraft for US services, international partners, and Foreign Military Sales (FMS) customers. Deliveries are scheduled to begin in 2026.

Table of Contents for US Aviation Industry Report

1. INTRODUCTION

  • 1.1 Study Assumptions and Market Definition
  • 1.2 Scope of the Study

2. RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

3. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

4. KEY INDUSTRY TRENDS

  • 4.1 Air Passenger Traffic
  • 4.2 Air Transport Freight
  • 4.3 Gross Domestic Product
  • 4.4 Revenue Passenger Kilometers (RPK)
  • 4.5 Inflation Rate
  • 4.6 Active Fleet Data
  • 4.7 Defense Spending
  • 4.8 High-Net-Worth-Individual (HNWI)

5. MARKET LANDSCAPE

  • 5.1 Market Overview
  • 5.2 Market Drivers
    • 5.2.1 Recovery in domestic passenger traffic
    • 5.2.2 Continued growth of e-commerce boosting air cargo demand
    • 5.2.3 Sustained DoD outlays for next-generation combat and support aircraft
    • 5.2.4 FAA “Innovate 2028” digital tower rollout accelerating regional airport upgrades
    • 5.2.5 Airline fleet renewal programs favoring fuel-efficient models
    • 5.2.6 Venture capital funding surge for electric short-haul aircraft creating new OEM revenue pools
  • 5.3 Market Restraints
    • 5.3.1 Supply chain bottlenecks for titanium, composites, and avionics
    • 5.3.2 Community-level opposition delaying SAF blending and storage infrastructure
    • 5.3.3 Persistent pilot, airframe, and powerplant mechanic shortages inflating labor costs
    • 5.3.4 Escalating cyber insurance premiums for connected aircraft systems
  • 5.4 Value Chain Analysis
  • 5.5 Regulatory Landscape
  • 5.6 Technological Outlook
  • 5.7 Porter's Five Forces Analysis
    • 5.7.1 Threat of New Entrants
    • 5.7.2 Bargaining Power of Buyers
    • 5.7.3 Bargaining Power of Suppliers
    • 5.7.4 Threat of Substitutes
    • 5.7.5 Intensity of Competitive Rivalry

6. MARKET SIZE AND GROWTH FORECASTS (VALUE)

  • 6.1 By Aircraft Type
    • 6.1.1 Commercial Aviation
    • 6.1.1.1 Passenger Aircraft
    • 6.1.1.1.1 Narrowbody Aircraft
    • 6.1.1.1.2 Widebody Aircraft
    • 6.1.1.1.3 Regional Jets
    • 6.1.2 General Aviation
    • 6.1.2.1 Business Jets
    • 6.1.2.1.1 Large Jet
    • 6.1.2.1.2 Mid-Size Jet
    • 6.1.2.1.3 Light Jet
    • 6.1.2.2 Piston and Turboprop Aircraft
    • 6.1.2.3 Commercial Helicopters
    • 6.1.3 Military Aviation
    • 6.1.3.1 Fixed-Wing Aircraft
    • 6.1.3.1.1 Combat Aircraft
    • 6.1.3.1.2 Multi-Role Aircraft
    • 6.1.3.1.3 Transport Aircraft
    • 6.1.3.1.4 Training Aircraft
    • 6.1.3.2 Rotorcraft
    • 6.1.3.2.1 Multi-Mission Helicopter
    • 6.1.3.2.2 Transport Helicopter
    • 6.1.3.2.3 Others
  • 6.2 By Propulsion Technology
    • 6.2.1 Turboprop
    • 6.2.2 Turbofan
    • 6.2.3 Piston Engine
    • 6.2.4 Turboshaft
    • 6.2.5 Others
  • 6.3 By End User
    • 6.3.1 Civil and Commercial Operators
    • 6.3.2 Government and Defense Agencies
    • 6.3.3 Business and General Aviation Owners

7. COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

  • 7.1 Market Concentration
  • 7.2 Strategic Moves
  • 7.3 Market Share Analysis
  • 7.4 Company Profiles (includes Global level Overview, Market level overview, Core Segments, Financials as available, Strategic Information, Market Rank/Share for key companies, Products and Services, and Recent Developments)
    • 7.4.1 Air Tractor, Inc.
    • 7.4.2 Airbus SE
    • 7.4.3 The Boeing Company
    • 7.4.4 Avions de Transport Régional GIE (ATR)
    • 7.4.5 Bombardier Inc.
    • 7.4.6 Cirrus Design Corporation
    • 7.4.7 Dassault Aviation S.A.
    • 7.4.8 Embraer S.A.
    • 7.4.9 General Dynamics Corporation
    • 7.4.10 Honda Aircraft Company (Honda Motor Co., Ltd.)
    • 7.4.11 Leonardo S.p.A.
    • 7.4.12 Lockheed Martin Corporation
    • 7.4.13 MD Helicopters LLC
    • 7.4.14 Northrop Grumman Corporation
    • 7.4.15 Pilatus Aircraft Ltd.
    • 7.4.16 Piper Aircraft, Inc.
    • 7.4.17 Robinson Helicopter Company
    • 7.4.18 Textron Inc.

8. MARKET OPPORTUNITIES AND FUTURE OUTLOOK

  • 8.1 White-space and Unmet-need Assessment

9. KEY STRATEGIC QUESTIONS FOR US AVIATION CEOS

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US Aviation Market Report Scope

The US aviation market encompasses the sales of fixed-wing and rotary-wing aircraft within the region's commercial, military, and general aviation sectors. It provides an analysis of air passenger traffic, aircraft orders and deliveries, defense expenditures, the introduction of new routes, and country-specific investments in the aviation industry. 

The US aviation market is segmented by aircraft type, propulsion technology, and end-user. By aircraft type, the market is segmented into commercial aviation, military aviation, and general aviation. By propulsion technology, the market is segmented into turboprop, turbofan, piston engine, turboshaft, and others. By end user, the market is segmented into civil and commercial operators, government and defense agencies, and business and general aviation owners. The report also covers the market sizes and forecasts for the US aviation market. The market size and forecast for each segment are provided in terms of value (USD). 

By Aircraft Type
Commercial AviationPassenger AircraftNarrowbody Aircraft
Widebody Aircraft
Regional Jets
General AviationBusiness JetsLarge Jet
Mid-Size Jet
Light Jet
Piston and Turboprop Aircraft
Commercial Helicopters
Military AviationFixed-Wing AircraftCombat Aircraft
Multi-Role Aircraft
Transport Aircraft
Training Aircraft
RotorcraftMulti-Mission Helicopter
Transport Helicopter
Others
By Propulsion Technology
Turboprop
Turbofan
Piston Engine
Turboshaft
Others
By End User
Civil and Commercial Operators
Government and Defense Agencies
Business and General Aviation Owners
By Aircraft TypeCommercial AviationPassenger AircraftNarrowbody Aircraft
Widebody Aircraft
Regional Jets
General AviationBusiness JetsLarge Jet
Mid-Size Jet
Light Jet
Piston and Turboprop Aircraft
Commercial Helicopters
Military AviationFixed-Wing AircraftCombat Aircraft
Multi-Role Aircraft
Transport Aircraft
Training Aircraft
RotorcraftMulti-Mission Helicopter
Transport Helicopter
Others
By Propulsion TechnologyTurboprop
Turbofan
Piston Engine
Turboshaft
Others
By End UserCivil and Commercial Operators
Government and Defense Agencies
Business and General Aviation Owners
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Market Definition

  • Aircraft Type - All the aircraft related to commercial, military and general aviation have been included in this study
  • Sub-Aircraft Type - Fixed-Wing passenger aircraft, freighter aircraft, business jets, piston fixed-wing aircraft, military fixed-wing aircraft, and rotorcraft are included under this study.
  • Body Type - Body type includes all types of aircraft segmented based on application/size/capacity/role.
KeywordDefinition
IATAIATA stands for the International Air Transport Association, a trade organization composed of airlines around the world that has an influence over the commercial aspects of flight.
ICAOICAO stands for International Civil Aviation Organization, a specialized agency of the United Nations that supports aviation and navigation around the globe.
Air Operator Certificate (AOC)A certificate granted by a National Aviation Authority permitting the conduct of commercial flying activities.
Certificate Of Airworthiness (CoA)A Certificate Of Airworthiness (CoA) is issued for an aircraft by the civil aviation authority in the state in which the aircraft is registered.
Gross Domestic Product (GDP)Gross domestic product (GDP) is a monetary measure of the market value of all the final goods and services produced in a specific time period by countries.
RPK (Revenue Passenger Kilometres)The RPK of an airline is the sum of the products obtained by multiplying the number of revenue passengers carried on each flight stage by the stage distance - it is the total number of kilometers traveled by all revenue passengers.
Load FactorThe load factor is a metric used in the airline industry that measures the percentage of available seating capacity that has been filled with passengers.
Original Equipment Manufacturer (OEM)An original equipment manufacturer (OEM) traditionally is defined as a company whose goods are used as components in the products of another company, which then sells the finished item to users.
International Transportation Safety Association (ITSA)International Transportation Safety Association (ITSA) is an international network of heads of independent safety investigation authorities (SIA).
Available Seats Kilometre (ASK)This metric is calculated by multiplying Available Seats (AS) in one flight, defined above, multiplied by the distance flown.
Gross WeightThe fully-loaded weight of an aircraft, also known as “takeoff weight,” which includes the combined weight of passengers, cargo, and fuel.
AirworthinessThe ability of an aircraft, or other airborne equipment or system, to operate in flight and on the ground without significant hazard to aircrew, ground crew, passengers or to other third parties.
Airworthiness StandardsDetailed and comprehensive design and safety criteria applicable to the category of aeronautical product (aircraft, engine or propeller).
Fixed Base Operator (FBO)A business or organization that operates at an airport. An FBO provides aircraft operating services like maintenance, fueling, flight training, charter services, hangaring, and parking.
High Net worth Individuals (HNWIs)High Net worth Individuals (HNWIs) are individuals with over USD 1 million in liquid financial assets.
Ultra High Net worth Individuals (UHNWIs)Ultra High Net worth Individuals (UHNWIs) are individuals with over USD 30 million in liquid financial assets.
Federal Aviation Administration (FAA)The division of the Department of Transportation is concerned with aviation. It operates Air Traffic Control and regulates everything from aircraft manufacturing to pilot training to airport operations in the United States.
EASA (European Aviation Safety Agency)The European Aviation Safety Agency is a European Union agency established in 2002 with the task of overseeing civil aviation safety and regulation.
Airborne Warning and Control System (AW&C) aircraftAirborne Warning and Control System (AEW&C) aircraft is equipped with a powerful radar and on-board command and control center to direct the armed forces.
The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO)The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), also called the North Atlantic Alliance, is an intergovernmental military alliance between 30 member states – 28 European and two North American.
Joint Strike Fighter (JSF)Joint Strike Fighter (JSF) is a development and acquisition program intended to replace a wide range of existing fighter, strike, and ground attack aircraft for the United States, the United Kingdom, Italy, Canada, Australia, the Netherlands, Denmark, Norway, and formerly Turkey.
Light Combat Aircraft (LCA)A light combat aircraft (LCA) is a light, multirole jet/turboprop military aircraft, commonly derived from advanced trainer designs, designed for engaging in light combat.
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI)Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) is an international institute that provides data, analysis, and recommendations for armed conflict, military expenditure, and arms trade as well as disarmament and arms control.
Maritime Patrol Aircraft (MPA)A maritime patrol aircraft (MPA), also known as maritime reconnaissance aircraft is a fixed-wing aircraft designed to operate for long durations over water in maritime patrol roles, in particular, anti-submarine warfare (ASW), anti-ship warfare (AShW), and search and rescue (SAR).
Mach NumberThe Mach number is defined as the ratio of true airspeed to the speed of sound at the altitude of a given aircraft.
Stealth AircraftStealth is a Common term applied to low observable (LO) technology and doctrine, that makes an aircraft near invisible to radar, infrared or visual detection.
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Research Methodology

Mordor Intelligence follows a four-step methodology in all our reports.

  • Step-1: Identify Key Variables:  In order to build a robust forecasting methodology, the variables and factors identified in Step-1 are tested against available historical market numbers. Through an iterative process, the variables required for market forecast are set and the model is built on the basis of these variables.
  • Step-2: Build a Market Model: Market-size estimations for the historical and forecast years have been provided in revenue and volume terms. For sales conversion to volume, the average selling price (ASP) is kept constant throughout the forecast period for each country, and inflation is not a part of the pricing.
  • Step-3: Validate and Finalize: In this important step, all market numbers, variables and analyst calls are validated through an extensive network of primary research experts from the market studied. The respondents are selected across levels and functions to generate a holistic picture of the market studied.
  • Step-4: Research Outputs: Syndicated Reports, Custom Consulting Assignments, Databases & Subscription Platforms
research-methodology
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