Wine Market Size & Share Analysis - Growth Trends and Forecast (2026 - 2031)

Global Wine Market Trends and Insights

Growing tourism and hospitality footprint

Wine tourism has transitioned from a niche offering to a significant revenue source, accounting for approximately 25% of total winery income and mitigating the impact of wholesale margin compression. The United Nations World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) Global Conference in 2025 highlighted wine tourism's importance in regional development, as destinations use wine experiences to attract millennials and Gen Z consumers interested in authentic cultural experiences^{[1]Source: "UN Tourism Global Conference on Wine Tourism highlights value of Culture", untourism.int} . This trend is particularly evident in Europe's established wine regions, such as Bordeaux, Tuscany, and Rioja, as well as in emerging destinations like Chile's Colchagua Valley and South Africa's Stellenbosch, where government tourism boards actively promote wine trails as cultural heritage assets. The integration of hospitality extends beyond tasting rooms to include on-premise dining, where restaurants and hotels feature curated wine lists that encourage the trial of premium labels, fostering brand discovery and repeat purchases. This approach also shields producers from the effects of retailer consolidation by leveraging direct sales channels, which bypass intermediary margins and provide valuable consumer data for targeted marketing efforts.

Rising consumer preference for low-/no-alcohol wines

The demand for low- and no-alcohol wines is growing as health-conscious consumers, particularly Generation Z and millennials, seek moderation without complete abstinence. European producers have responded by investing in dealcoholization technologies, such as reverse osmosis and vacuum distillation, which preserve varietal character while reducing alcohol by volume to 0.5% or below. However, regulatory clarity remains inconsistent. In the United States, the TTB permits "non-alcoholic wine" labeling for products under 0.5% ABV, while the European Union enforces stricter thresholds under its wine common market organization. This category expansion also addresses emerging markets where cultural or religious norms limit traditional wine consumption, creating opportunities for incremental volume growth in the Middle East and parts of Asia-Pacific. Producers like Treasury Wine Estates have introduced dedicated NoLo sub-brands, signaling that this segment has evolved from experimental to a strategic growth area, as highlighted in the Treasury Wine Estates Investor Presentation 2025^{[2]Source: "2025 Annual Results Investor and Analyst Presentation", www.tweglobal.com.}.

Surge in premium and super-premium wine demand

Premiumization continues to reshape the wine market. This trend is driven by affluent consumers in North America and Asia-Pacific, who view wine as both a luxury consumable and an investable asset, as evidenced by auction indices tracking Bordeaux first growths and Burgundy grand crus. LVMH's Moët Hennessy division reported that its prestige champagne portfolio maintained pricing power despite macroeconomic challenges, with Dom Pérignon and Krug achieving mid-single-digit volume growth in 2024, as noted in the LVMH Annual Report 2024^{[3]Source: "Financial Documents fiscal Year Ended December 31, 2024", lvmh-com} . In contrast, mainstream and value wine segments face structural decline. Constellation Brands, for instance, divested lower-margin brands to focus on its premium portfolio, including The Prisoner and Kim Crawford, as detailed in its 2024 10-K filing. This bifurcation creates strategic imperatives: large-scale players must either shift toward premium offerings or exit the market, while boutique estates leverage scarcity and terroir narratives to command ultra-premium pricing.

Climate-resilient varietal Research and Development expands viable terroirs

Climate volatility, including erratic frost events, heatwaves, and shifting precipitation patterns, has driven investment in resilient grape genetics and adaptive viticultural practices. PIWI varieties (fungus-resistant hybrids) have gained traction in Europe, where organic certification requirements and reduced fungicide usage align with consumer sustainability expectations. Germany and Switzerland, for example, have seen PIWI plantings exceed 1,000 hectares as producers aim to lower input costs while maintaining quality, according to European Commission Agricultural Research. These innovations are expanding the geographic footprint of premium wine production, challenging traditional appellations and creating new origin stories that appeal to exploratory consumers. The strategic implication is a gradual decoupling of terroir from latitude, as advancements in technology and genetics mitigate climatic disadvantages. However, regulatory frameworks governing varietal labeling and appellation rules will play a critical role in determining the pace at which these innovations achieve commercial scale.

Stringent and divergent alcohol regulations

Regulatory fragmentation imposes significant compliance costs and restricts market access, particularly for exporters dealing with diverse labeling, taxation, and distribution rules. In the United States, the three-tier system, which mandates the separation of producers, distributors, and retailers, limits direct-to-consumer shipping. The Alcohol and Tobacco Tax and Trade Bureau (TTB) has modernized its Certificate of Label Approval (COLA) processes, reducing approval timelines. In the Asia-Pacific region, tariff structures and import licensing regimes vary significantly. For example, China's reinstatement of its zero-tariff policy on Australian wine in 2024, following a three-year suspension, contrasts sharply with India's duties exceeding 150%, which hinder legal imports and encourage grey-market activity. In the European Union, the geographical indication framework protects regional appellations but limits varietal flexibility, complicating efforts by new-world producers to transparently communicate grape composition. 

High production costs amplified by climate volatility

Climate-induced yield variability has significantly increased production costs through various factors, including the need for enhanced irrigation systems, frost-protection infrastructure, higher insurance premiums, and adaptive canopy management. According to the International Organisation of Vine and Wine (OIV), global wine production in 2024 dropped to 225.8 to lowest in six decades, due to spring frosts in Europe and drought conditions in South America. This forced producers to either procure additional fruit at elevated spot prices or reduce output. Energy-intensive measures, such as wind machines for frost mitigation and desalination for irrigation in water-scarce areas, have added recurring operational expenses, compressing profit margins, particularly for mid-sized producers without economies of scale. Seasonal labor shortages have further driven overtime premiums and investments in mechanization, which require extended payback periods. These cost pressures disproportionately impact regions with marginal climates and limited access to capital, accelerating industry consolidation as smaller estates either exit the market or sell to larger, better-capitalized entities.

Segment Analysis

By Product Type: Sparkling Effervescence Outpaces Still Tradition

In 2025, still wine accounted for 71.90% of the product-type share, reflecting its established role in both everyday and fine-dining settings. However, sparkling wine is projected to grow at a CAGR of 4.0% through 2031, surpassing the category average. The increased accessibility of Prosecco, facilitated by the cost-efficient Charmat method, has expanded sparkling wine consumption beyond celebratory occasions. Italian sparkling wine exports reached record volumes in 2024 despite macroeconomic challenges, according to Italian Wine Central. In contrast, Champagne relies on its scarcity and appellation prestige to maintain ultra-premium pricing. 

Brands such as LVMH's Moët and Chandon and Veuve Clicquot prioritized margins over market share in 2024, as inventory destocking concluded, as noted in the LVMH Annual Report 2024. Other wine types, such as vermouth, aromatized wines, and pétillant-naturel, remain niche but appeal to craft-focused consumers seeking novelty and artisanal origins. Still wine continues to dominate in on-trade fine dining, where sommeliers emphasize terroir and vintage variation in curated wine lists. In off-trade channels, still wine remains a staple for everyday consumption, with value-conscious buyers focusing on cost per serving rather than packaging innovations. Fortified wine faces challenges as younger consumers show less interest in sweet, high-alcohol profiles. However, premium tawny ports and single-quinta vintages retain appeal among collectors.

Note: Segment shares of all individual segments available upon report purchase

By Color: Rosé Gains While Red Holds Tradition

In 2025, red wine accounted for 48.23% of the color-based market share, supported by established varietals such as Cabernet Sauvignon, Merlot, and Pinot Noir, which dominate on-trade wine lists and collector cellars. However, rosé wine is projected to grow at a CAGR of 4.12% through 2031, driven by evolving year-round consumption patterns and increasing premiumization. Provence-style rosé, known for its pale hue and dry profile, has moved beyond its traditional seasonal appeal. Producers like Château d'Esclans and Whispering Angel have gained significant recognition in North America and the Asia-Pacific regions. White wine, which holds the remaining market share, benefits from its versatility in food pairings and popularity during warm-weather occasions, with Chardonnay and Sauvignon Blanc leading varietal sales.

The growth of rosé wine is further supported by its geographic expansion beyond its Mediterranean origins. Regions such as Australia, South Africa, and California have increased rosé production by utilizing existing red-grape vineyards through saignée or direct-press methods. This approach allows producers to capture additional margins without requiring new vineyard plantings. The segmentation by color aligns with consumption occasions: red wine is preferred for formal dining and cellaring, white wine for casual meals and aperitifs, and rosé for social gatherings and outdoor events.

By End User: Women Lead, Men Accelerate

Women represented 60.11% of the end-user share in 2025, driven by consistent engagement in wellness-focused and lower-alcohol categories. However, men are projected to grow at a CAGR of 4.49% through 2031, as the craft and premium wine segments attract male consumers interested in artisanal origins and collectible labels. Marketing strategies targeting women focus on lifestyle integration, with brands like Sula Vineyards in India and Kim Crawford in New Zealand utilizing social media and influencer partnerships to foster community engagement and encourage product trials. In contrast, male consumers show a stronger preference for full-bodied reds, fortified wines, and limited-production offerings that convey expertise and investment value.

The end-user landscape is shifting as traditional gender associations diminish. Male participation in wine clubs and tasting events has increased, driven by craft spirits enthusiasts transitioning into wine and younger demographics rejecting gendered consumption norms. Meanwhile, female sommeliers and winemakers are gaining visibility, challenging industry stereotypes and enhancing wine's cultural appeal. Producers are adapting by adopting gender-neutral branding and packaging that highlight terroir, sustainability, and craftsmanship rather than lifestyle-oriented messaging. The strategic importance of this segmentation lies in optimizing channels and messaging: brands targeting women should focus on digital engagement, subscription-based models, and wellness narratives, while those targeting men should emphasize scarcity, critic ratings, and vertical tasting experiences.

By Distribution Channel: Off-Trade Dominates, On-Trade Recovers

Off-trade channels accounted for 59.65% of the distribution share in 2025, including specialty liquor stores, supermarkets, and e-commerce platforms. However, on-trade channels are projected to grow at a CAGR of 3.69% through 2031, driven by the recovery of hospitality venues and the increasing appeal of experiential dining, which boosts per-bottle spending. Specialty liquor stores remain a key component of the off-trade segment, offering curated selections and knowledgeable staff that provide a middle ground between mass-market grocery stores and on-premise options. On-trade channels, including restaurants, bars, and hotels, achieve higher per-unit pricing, with high markups over wholesale prices being common in fine dining establishments. 

The distribution segmentation highlights structural changes in consumer behavior and regulatory frameworks. Off-trade dominance is supported by factors such as convenience, price transparency, and the growth of direct-to-consumer (DTC) models, which bypass traditional three-tier systems where legally allowed. Specialty liquor stores differentiate themselves through educational tastings, staff training, and curated product collections, which justify premium pricing and foster customer loyalty. On-trade recovery has been uneven, with casual dining and bars recovering more quickly than fine dining establishments, which continue to face challenges such as labor shortages and higher operating costs.

Geography Analysis

Europe generated 44.45% of global wine revenues in 2024, supported by established cultural traditions and concentrated wine-producing regions. Consumer behavior shows a shift from daily consumption to weekend and special occasion drinking, resulting in decreased low-price volume but increased premium segment share. In France, wine remains the primary alcoholic beverage, with strong adoption among 18-25-year-olds. Italy's market growth is driven by Denominazione di Origine Controllata e Garantita (DOCG) promotional activities and increased exports to the United States. European producers face strict environmental regulations, leading to increased adoption of organic certifications and biodynamic practices, which increase production costs while providing marketing benefits.

The Asia-Pacific region shows a 5.36% CAGR through 2030. China's market expands through domestic premium wine production and duty-free retail development. India's growth stems from wine tourism initiatives in Maharashtra, combining agricultural experiences with high-end accommodations. South Korea, Thailand, and Japan demonstrate double-digit import growth, with distinct preferences—South Korean consumers favor sweeter wines, while Japanese buyers prefer sparkling Moscato. Digital platforms like Alibaba's Tmall enable direct shipments from small European producers to Asian consumers, reducing traditional import barriers.

South American exporters, particularly Chile and Argentina, use free-trade agreements to maintain market presence against increasing competition from Spain and Portugal. The Middle East and Africa regions show long-term growth potential, despite regulatory restrictions, with wealthy urban areas importing premium wines for upscale restaurants. Success in these diverse markets requires effective regulatory compliance and market-specific communication strategies.