Venezuela Power Market Size & Share Analysis - Growth Trends And Forecast (2025 - 2030)

Venezuela Power Market Trends and Insights

Abundant Hydropower Potential & Refurbishment of Guri Dam

Venezuela’s technical hydro potential approaches 20,000 MW, yet actual output hovers near 30% of that ceiling.^{[2]Chambers & Partners, “Energy & Natural Resources Guide Venezuela 2025,” chambers.com} The 10,200 MW Guri complex anchors the Caroní cascade, but deferred maintenance, sedimentation, and drought have eroded performance. Refurbishment campaigns, focused on turbine overhauls, valve modernization, and sediment control, could reclaim 800-1,000 MW, erasing the structural deficit without green-field construction.^{[3]International Energy Agency, “Hydropower Market Report 2023,” iea.org} Financing relies on oil-for-infrastructure agreements with Chinese policy banks, while technical execution rotates among Andritz, Voith, and Siemens Energy under Ministry supervision.

Government Renewable-Diversification Targets Amid Oil-Price Volatility

At COP29 (Nov 2024), Caracas pledged to source 30% of electricity from photovoltaics and unveiled a 3,000 MW solar roadmap for the Andes states. This pivot shields exportable hydrocarbons and hedges against fuel-supply shocks that routinely idle thermal plants. Early projects include a 50 MW facility in Mara, Zulia, and a twin 50 MW site in El Vigía, Mérida. Execution leans on turnkey EPC contracts with Chinese, Indian, and Turkish suppliers, yet the stalled Renewable and Alternative Energy (RAE) Bill still clouds power-purchase agreement (PPA) design and tariff certainty.

Rehabilitation & Dual-Fuel Conversion of Ageing Thermal Fleet

Thermal assets such as the 770 MW Termozulia station and the 660 MW Ramón Laguna plant run at 25% utilization or remain dormant. Dual-fuel retrofits allow switching between scarce gas and imported diesel, raising availability when associated-gas flows fluctuate—an acute risk since the 2024 Muscar gas-complex explosion. Contracts center on Siemens Energy and Wärtsilä for burner re-engineering and digital controls, but OFAC licensing and bolívar depreciation inflate costs and elongate delivery cycles.

Gradual Economic Stabilization Driving Electricity-Demand Rebound

GDP grew 5.3% in 2024, yet is projected to contract 4.0% in 2025 as hyperinflation persists. Still, activity in refining, petrochemicals, and mining propels localized demand, particularly in Orinoco Belt operations operated by Chevron and Eni under specific licenses. Distributed solar installers, 13 at last count, and 5,000 EVs show latent elasticity in commercial and mobility segments, offering buffers against grid instability.

Prolonged Political Instability & U.S. Sanctions Limiting FDI

General License 44A (Apr 2024) reinstated sectoral sanctions, curbing equipment imports and deterring multiyear finance. Although Chevron, Repsol, and Maurel & Prom hold narrow exemptions, sovereign default status and governance risks elevate Venezuela’s cost of capital well above regional peers. The IEA notes that Venezuela captured none of the USD 185 billion in Latin American power-sector inflows during 2024.

Ageing T&D Infrastructure Causing Chronic Outages & Losses

Service-failure rates leapt from 25.9% in 2022 to 61.9% in 2023 as corroded conductors, overloaded transformers, and weak protection schemes induced cascading blackouts. CORPOELEC’s consolidation of 14 regional utilities has not reversed attrition of skilled labor, and technical plus non-technical losses soak up revenue needed for capital replacement. A World Bank extra-high-voltage upgrade remains undisbursed, underscoring lender reluctance.^{[4]World Bank, “Venezuela Extra High Voltage Transmission Project,” worldbank.org}

Segment Analysis

By Power Source: Hydro Dominance Masks Fuel-Supply Fragility

Hydro supplied 62,516 GWh of 2022 generation and remains the backbone of the Venezuela power market. The hydro-heavy mix commands 49.6% of the Venezuela power market size, while thermal assets account for the remaining 50.4% yet contribute disproportionately less energy because of fuel bottlenecks. Renewables excluding legacy hydro are set to grow at a 5.9% CAGR through 2030, led by the 3,000 MW Andean solar cluster and incremental wind at Paraguaná. The Venezuela power industry faces concentration risk from the single 10,200 MW Guri plant: a repeat of 2020-2021 drought conditions could slice national output by double digits. Dual-fuel conversions promise partial mitigation but hinge on reliable diesel imports or flared-gas capture, both vulnerable to sanctions drag.

Solar, at merely 5 MW in 2023, will acquire a toehold through 100 MW of approved projects and distributed rooftops. Wind’s 40-50 MW addition in July 2024 augurs further coastal build-outs if logistics hurdles ease. Biomass and geothermal stay embryonic, the former stymied by feedstock aggregation costs and the latter by vague tariff signals under the shelved RAE Bill.

Note: Segment shares of all individual segments available upon report purchase

By End User: Utilities Dominate Amid Industrial Self-Generation Surge

Utilities controlled 67.1% of installed capacity in 2024 and will expand at a 6.5% CAGR as state-led solar plants funnel into the grid. The Venezuela power market size for utilities equates to roughly 29 GW today and rises to 40 GW by 2030. Commercial and industrial users, facing outages up to 12 hours daily in eastern regions, ramp up self-generation with rooftop solar, diesel gensets, and nascent battery storage. The Venezuela power market share held by this segment remains below 30%, but growth outpaces the grid as miners and refiners in the Orinoco Belt deploy captive gas turbines exempt from CORPOELEC tariffs. Residential adoption of rooftop PV lags because of high dollar-denominated costs and absent net-metering, yet pilot programs in Caracas and Nueva Esparta suggest a slow climb if financing tools emerge. EV charging loads, now trivial, could add 50-100 MW by 2030, contingent on grid resilience and a modest acceleration in electric mobility.

Note: Segment shares of all individual segments available upon report purchase

Geography Analysis

Bolívar state hosts the 10,200 MW Guri complex plus a cascade of smaller dams totaling 16,829 MW, making it the keystone of the Venezuela power market. Drought volatility and sedimentation cut capacity factors below 40% in recent years. Zulia, once a thermal powerhouse, now imports power via vulnerable extra-high-voltage lines that often trip, exposing Maracaibo to frequent curtailments. The Andean trio of Mérida, Táchira, and Trujillo will house the 3,000 MW solar program, leveraging 5.35 kWh/m² of average global horizontal irradiance and proximity to load centers.

Eastern states, Anzoátegui, Monagas, and Sucre, depend on thermals running on associated gas, yet the Muscar explosion cut supply, demonstrating fragility. Coastal Falcón benefited from 38 new wind turbines in 2024, signaling a diversification path. Cross-border interconnections with Colombia and Brazil remain underutilized; price disparities and political risk stall expansion. Remote Orinoco and Amazonas communities rely on diesel and micro-hydro pilot projects; solar-plus-storage could gradually displace liquid fuels pending concessional finance and streamlined permits.