Ecuador Solar Energy Market Size & Share Analysis - Growth Trends And Forecast (2025 - 2030)

Ecuador Solar Energy Market Trends and Insights

Falling Module and Balance-of-System Costs Narrow the LCOE Gap

Average global module prices fell to USD 0.10 per W in 2024, allowing the national solar LCOE to drop toward USD 40 per MWh. At this level, PV undercuts new hydro peaking projects priced at USD 60-80 per MWh and competes with combined-cycle gas. Zero import duty on panels has accelerated utility-scale pipelines, whereas a 12% VAT on inverters adds USD 5-8 per MWh to hybrid systems, reinforcing the popularity of pure grid-tied arrays. As BOS prices decline further, the economic advantage is expected to reach off-grid microgrids serving the Amazon and Galápagos by 2027.

High Year-Round Irradiation and 12-Hour Daylight Enhance Capacity Factors

Equatorial geography gives Ecuador consistent daily sunlight, yielding 16-17% capacity factors for fixed-tilt plants and up to 21% for tracking systems. Loja posts the highest irradiation in the country, prompting CELEC GENSUR to launch the 200 MW La Ceiba project in January 2025. Developers are favoring high-efficiency bifacial modules that reduce land needs by 15-20%, a critical benefit for mountainous sites with limited flat terrain.

Seasonal Hydro Deficits Create Capacity Payments for Solar Firming

Hydro generated 71.68% of electricity in 2023, but output drops 30-40% in dry periods, forcing expensive diesel peaking at USD 120-150 per MWh. CENACE is piloting an ancillary-services market that would let solar-plus-battery projects earn USD 10-15 per MWh in capacity fees, improving project IRRs by as much as 3 percentage points.

Government Utility-Scale Auction Program Drives Capacity Additions

The ministry awarded the 200 MW El Aromo project under a 310 MW tender and, in January 2024, identified seven new sites totaling 1.58 GW, positioning state utility CELEC EP as the anchor of future PPAs.^{(1)CELEC EP, “Generación Solar Portfolio,” celec.gob.ec} Legislative reform in October 2024 lifted the private-project threshold to 100 MW, removing the requirement for competitive bidding and attracting independent producers keen to fast-track projects in provinces where existing transmission is adequate. Successful Colombian auctions in 2019 offer a regional precedent, reinforcing investor confidence that Ecuador can secure financial close for 50–100 MW plants by 2026.

Lengthy Environmental and Indigenous Consultation Delays Projects

Projects exceeding 1 MW require an environmental impact assessment and, when located on ancestral land, a prior consultation under ILO 169. This sequence often extends beyond 18 months, as illustrated by the 200 MW El Aromo plant still awaiting full permits in early 2025. Developers now budget USD 0.5-1 million for upfront community agreements, trading higher soft costs for shorter overall timelines.

Weak Transmission in High-Solar Provinces Constrains Grid Integration

Loja and Imbabura offer irradiation above 5.0 kWh/m²/day but lack sufficient 230 kV lines to move supply toward Quito and Guayaquil. TRANSELECTRIC plans USD 150 million in upgrades by 2027; however, right-of-way challenges mean several corridors will not be energized before 2028.

Segment Analysis

By Technology: PV Monopolizes the Pipeline

Installation data show that PV commanded 100% of the Ecuador solar energy market share in 2024 and is projected to maintain dominance through 2030 on a 95.8% CAGR. The Ecuador solar energy market size attributable to PV is set to jump from 33 MW in 2025 to 950 MW in 2030 as no CSP plants appear in the national registry.^{(2)International Renewable Energy Agency, “Renewable Power Generation Costs 2024,” irena.org} Capital expenditure for fixed-tilt PV averages USD 800-900 per kW compared with USD 3,500-4,500 per kW for CSP, an 80% cost advantage that accelerates financial close. Bifacial modules supplied by Trina Solar and Canadian Solar deliver 10-15% energy gains by harvesting albedo, reducing land requirements in mountainous regions where flat parcels carry premium prices.

Continuous module-efficiency gains, such as JinkoSolar’s N-type Tiger Neo reaching 25.8% in 2024, allow developers to boost capacity within existing substation limits.^{(3)JinkoSolar, “Tiger Neo N-type Module Datasheet,” jinkosolar.com} The absence of high direct-normal-irradiance zones makes CSP economically unattractive, a reality confirmed by feasibility studies from NREL showing DNI below 1,500 kWh/m²/year nationwide. As auctions stipulate least-cost bids, PV’s cost leadership leaves CSP sidelined for the foreseeable future.

Note: Segment shares of all individual segments available upon report purchase

By Grid Type: On-Grid Capacity Surges with Transmission Upgrades

On-grid projects held 95.8% of the Ecuador solar energy market share in 2024 and will grow at a 98.3% CAGR to 2030 as CELEC EP’s 1.58 GW portfolio feeds the National Interconnected System. Around 200 MW of new capacity, including La Ceiba and El Aromo, is scheduled for financial close in 2025-2026. Grid-tied economics are helped by zero import duty on modules and established PPA frameworks overseen by CENACE.

Off-grid systems account for just 4.2 MW but play a vital social role by powering Amazon schools, clinics, and the Galápagos Islands. The ministry’s rural electrification program deployed 60 MW of self-consumption capacity by mid-2025 and cut diesel use by up to 70%. Nevertheless, as grid extensions reach isolated provinces, off-grid growth will moderate in favor of net-metered rooftops under ARCERNNR Regulation 008/23.

By End-User: Utility-Scale Leads Future Additions

Commercial and Industrial (C&I) rooftops led demand in 2024 with 50.1% of installed capacity, but the utility-scale segment is forecast to post a 125.5% CAGR from 2025 to 2030 as auctioned plants reach COD. The Ecuador solar energy market size for utility-scale assets is expected to exceed 700 MW by 2030, driven by transmission-ready sites in Manabí, Loja, and Guayas. Mid-tier developers are flocking to projects under 100 MW that now bypass the auction process, speeding timelines by at least six months.

C&I economics remain compelling, with rooftop LCOE near USD 0.12 per kWh against retail tariffs of USD 0.156 per kWh, offering 5-7 year paybacks for exporters in the banana, cacao, and shrimp sectors. Residential uptake lags due to subsidized tariffs at USD 0.093 per kWh and limited access to long-term finance. Subsidy reform is politically sensitive and unlikely before the 2027 legislative cycle, capping household adoption near 2% of national installations.

Note: Segment shares of all individual segments available upon report purchase

Geography Analysis

Loja, Manabí, and Guayas make up the primary deployment corridor and together represent more than 60% of installed and planned megawatts. Loja’s average irradiation of 5.7 kWh/m²/day and the launch of the 200 MW La Ceiba project secure the province’s leadership through 2030. Manabí hosts the 200 MW El Aromo plant near Portoviejo, where flat terrain simplifies construction and coastal proximity shortens logistics chains.

Guayas, home to Guayaquil and 35% of national demand, added 150 MW of distributed projects under Regulation 013/2021, taking advantage of ample commercial rooftops and nearby substations. Imbabura and Carchi post irradiation above 4.8 kWh/m²/day yet face bottlenecks until the 230 kV line extension scheduled for 2028. Once energized, the corridor could unlock 300 MW of currently stalled projects.

The Amazon provinces of Sucumbíos and Orellana rely on PV-diesel microgrids; 60 MW had been deployed by June 2025 under the rural electrification program, delivering uninterrupted power to clinics and schools. The Galápagos Islands target 100% renewable electricity by 2030; the 1.5 MW Baltra plant commissioned in 2024 demonstrates technical viability in a protected environment.^{(4)UNESCO, “Galápagos Renewable Energy Initiative,” unesco.org}Secondary provinces such as Azuay and El Oro are poised to attract solar-plus-storage tied to mining and agro-processing loads once the IDB-funded transmission upgrades reach completion.