Osteoarthritis Treatment Market Size & Share Analysis - Growth Trends and Forecast (2026 - 2031)

Global Osteoarthritis Treatment Market Trends and Insights

Rapidly Aging Global Population

United Nations projections indicate that 1.4 billion people will be aged 60 or older by 2030, up from 1 billion in 2020^{[1]United Nations, “World Population Ageing 2023,” un.org}. Japan illustrates the impact, with 29% of residents already over 65 years. The prevalence of osteoarthritis is expected to reach 1 billion cases worldwide by 2050. China’s 280 million citizens aged 60 and above in 2024 are accelerating demand for cost-effective injections over surgery, according to. Pharmaceutical pipelines are adjusting; Novartis advanced its Wnt-pathway inhibitor LNA043 into Phase 2b during 2024.

Rising Obesity and Sedentary Lifestyles

The World Health Organization reported more than 1 billion obese individuals worldwide in 2022. Obesity raises the risk of knee osteoarthritis fivefold and quickens cartilage loss. Novo Nordisk’s STEP 9 trial demonstrated a 13.7% weight loss with semaglutide, reducing knee pain scores by 41.7 points in 2024. U.S. obesity-related medical costs exceed USD 170 billion annually. A 2024 Lancet study linked fewer than 5,000 daily steps to 22% faster cartilage thinning.

Growing Adoption of Single-Injection Viscosupplements

The FDA cleared HYMOVIS ONE in April 2025, reducing the number of clinic visits from three to one. ESCEO guidelines published in 2024 recommend single-injection hyaluronic acid for grade 2-3 knee disease. Ambulatory injections cost USD 800-1,200 per episode compared with USD 25,000-35,000 for knee replacement. Pacira and Johnson & Johnson began co-promoting ZILRETTA in July 2025 to extend corticosteroid relief to three months. Ultrasound guidance improves accuracy; a 2024 study in Arthritis & Rheumatology found 18% better pain reduction compared to the landmark technique.

AI-Enabled Early Diagnostics

The FDA cleared Lunit INSIGHT MSK in 2024, detecting early radiographic change with 92% sensitivity. A 2025 study in Nature Medicine predicted four-year progression to knee replacement with an AUC of 0.87, using MRI-based deep learning. IBM and the Osteoarthritis Research Society International launched a decision-support tool in 2024 that matches imaging, cytokine, and patient-reported data to recommended injections. A 2024 Health Affairs analysis estimated AI triage could save USD 1.2 billion per year in the U.S. by reducing unnecessary arthroscopies. The EMA issued draft guidance in 2025 to regulate such software.

High Cost of Advanced Biologic Therapies

Platelet-rich plasma costs USD 700-1,200 per injection and requires three sessions, yet Medicare offers no national coverage. Stem-cell injections priced at USD 3,000-7,000 showed no superiority to corticosteroids in a 2023 Nature Medicine trial. Amniotic suspension allografts, priced at USD 2,500-4,000, have faced repeated FDA warning letters for unsubstantiated claims. Pacira acquired GQ Bio in 2025 to develop PCRX-201 gene therapy that may debut at above USD 10,000 per dose. India’s Ayushman Bharat scheme reimburses only generic NSAIDs and corticosteroids, leaving viscosupplements as out-of-pocket purchases.

Safety Concerns and Regulatory Scrutiny Around Long-Term NSAID Use

The FDA boxed warning highlights elevated myocardial infarction and stroke risk from systemic NSAIDs. A 2024 Lancet meta-analysis reported diclofenac raised major vascular events by 40%^{[2]The Lancet, “Major vascular events with NSAIDs,” thelancet.com}. A Cochrane review estimated that 1 in 1,200 annual NSAID users require hospitalization for upper-GI bleeding. The CDC’s 2024 guideline discourages opioids for chronic osteoarthritis pain. The UK MHRA will mandate cardiovascular risk checks for prescriptions longer than 30 days from 2025.

Segment Analysis

By Drugs: Single-Injection Viscosupplements Reshape Protocols

Hyaluronic acid injections are forecast to rise at a 6.54% CAGR through 2031 as single-dose products remove adherence barriers. NSAIDs retained a 41.43% revenue share in 2025, yet topical diclofenac gels are gaining favor due to their lower systemic exposure. Corticosteroids, such as ZILRETTA, offer 12 weeks of relief, thereby limiting the need for repeat procedures. Biologics account for a small portion of spending but dominate R&D budgets. In 2024, GlaxoSmithKline partnered with Relation Therapeutics to identify genetic targets, with USD 200 million in milestones. The osteoarthritis treatment market share is likely to tip toward injectables if forthcoming disease-modifying candidates demonstrate structural benefit.

The FDA approval of HYMOVIS ONE in 2025 validated the one-shot approach, following a 600-patient trial that demonstrated six-month pain reduction equivalent to that of three-dose regimens. ESCEO’s 2024 guideline shift triggered European demand despite fragmented reimbursement. Opioid prescribing for osteoarthritis dropped 40% in the U.S. between 2020 and 2024 after CDC guideline updates. Pharmaceutical pipelines, therefore, prioritize structural agents that can postpone the need for replacement surgery and preserve pricing power in the face of generic NSAID competition.

Note: Segment shares of all individual segments available upon report purchase

By Anatomy: Shoulder Gains as Rotator-Cuff Sequelae Mount

Knee disease accounted for 46.76% of the osteoarthritis treatment market size in 2025, owing to its high biomechanical load and clear surgical pathways. Shoulder cases are projected to grow at 6.76% through 2031 as chronic rotator-cuff injuries progress to glenohumeral degeneration in aging workers and athletes. Hip disease follows a similar growth pattern but faces slower viscosupplement uptake because injections are technically complex^{[3]Arthritis Foundation, “Joint Specific Osteoarthritis Data,” arthritis.org}. Ankle and small-joint disease together account for less than 10% of spending.

Smith & Nephew acquired CartiHeal for USD 180 million upfront in 2024, targeting focal defects that can precede knee replacement. Reverse total shoulder arthroplasty has expanded indications, leading to increased use of presurgical injections. The osteoarthritis treatment market share for shoulder interventions is expected to climb as implant survival improves and patients seek delay strategies before prosthesis.

By Distribution Channel: Online Gains as OTC NSAIDs Bypass Gatekeepers

Hospital pharmacies captured 55.67% revenue in 2025 because clinic-based injections require sterile compounding. Online pharmacies are forecast to grow 7.86% annually as direct-to-consumer NSAIDs and nutraceuticals gain traction. Retail chains still dominate prescription volume but face mail-order competition that compresses margins. The osteoarthritis treatment market size within e-commerce will expand if telemedicine waivers that allow virtual prescribing remain in force.

Amazon Pharmacy’s 2024 expansion into 20 U.S. states cut 90-day ibuprofen costs by 30% compared with brick-and-mortar outlets. Hims & Hers introduced a virtual musculoskeletal-pain service in 2025 pairing consults with home-delivered topical diclofenac. Specialty pharmacies now deliver ZILRETTA directly to orthopedic clinics under buy-and-bill models, eroding hospital control.

Note: Segment shares of all individual segments available upon report purchase

By End User: Orthopedic Clinics Capture Ambulatory Shift

Hospitals held 48.65% of osteoarthritis treatment market size in 2025 because joint replacement remains largely inpatient. Orthopedic clinics are growing 7.65% annually as ultrasound-guided injections migrate to office settings. Ambulatory surgical centers captured more unicompartmental knee cases after Medicare classified them as outpatient-eligible in 2024. Sports-medicine centers cater to younger patients seeking platelet-rich plasma or stem-cell injections that hospitals avoid due to uncertain reimbursement.

Pacira and Johnson & Johnson launched a bundled model for ZILRETTA that packages drug, supplies, and imaging in a single purchase order for clinics. Zimmer Biomet’s USD 177 million acquisition of Monogram Orthopaedics in 2025 equips high-volume centers with autonomous robotic planning that personalizes implant alignment. Digital therapeutics like Hinge Health reduced joint-replacement intent by 30% in a 2024 trial, hinting at further decentralization.

Geography Analysis

North America generated 42.65% of osteoarthritis treatment revenue in 2025, primarily driven by Medicare reimbursement for injections and surgeries. Local contractors tightened prior authorization, resulting in a 35% increase in denial rates for hyaluronic acid between 2023 and 2025. The FDA approval of HYMOVIS ONE and AI-based detection tools underscores the region’s leadership in innovation. Canada limits viscosupplement coverage, keeping penetration below 15% in Ontario.

The Asia-Pacific region is projected to expand at a rate of 5.64% through 2031, as Japan’s super-aged population and China’s 280 million seniors seek injections to defer surgery. Japan reimburses over 2 million viscosupplement injections annually. China added several hyaluronic acid brands to its national drug list in 2024, boosting domestic output. India’s public scheme excludes viscosupplements, but the rising income of the middle class is supporting a self-pay market. South Korea’s universal coverage and rapid aging underpin double-digit growth in Seoul and Busan.

Europe grows more slowly because cost-effectiveness thresholds vary. NICE confines hyaluronic acid use to salvage cases in the UK. Germany covers multi-injection regimens that boost volume but cap per-patient spend. ESCEO’s 2024 endorsement of single-injection products may harmonize reimbursement over time. In the Middle East, the UAE and Saudi Arabia are building orthopedic centers that attract medical tourists, whereas sub-Saharan Africa relies on low-cost NSAIDs. South American growth is concentrated in Brazil, where private insurance uptake is improving viscosupplement access despite currency volatility.