Medium and Heavy-Duty Commercial Vehicles Size & Share Analysis - Growth Trends & Forecasts (2025 - 2030)

Global Medium And Heavy Duty Commercial Vehicles Market Trends and Insights

Fleet Renewal Driven by Euro VII & EPA 2027 Emission Rules

Stringent NOx and CO₂ targets accelerate the replacement of pre-Euro VI and older diesel units in Europe and compel North American fleets to refresh Class 6-8 inventories sooner than planned. Recently adopted Euro 7 standards impose stricter limits, especially for heavy-duty vehicles (HDVs). These standards reduce nitrogen oxides (NOX) limits by 50% to 62%, depending on the test cycle. Additionally, they replace the total hydrocarbon (THC) limits with distinct, more stringent limits for non-methane organic gases (NMOG) and methane (CH4). Coordinated timing compresses procurement into narrow windows that strain suppliers but unlock economies of scale for after-treatment and battery technologies. California’s Advanced Clean Trucks regulation, covering 25% of the US market, mandates 50% zero-emission sales by 2030. Operators that adopt early benefit from incentive pools and residual-value premiums, whereas late movers face supply shortages and higher compliance costs. Manufacturers with existing electric portfolios enjoy a first-mover edge and can amortize development expenses across both regions.

Infrastructure Stimulus in Emerging Economies

Government-backed road and energy programs continue to lift medium and heavy commercial vehicles market demand in India, Indonesia, Malaysia, and key Latin American countries. India’s FAME framework targets 70% electric commercial vehicle penetration by 2030, supporting 49% annual growth in electric truck sales and encouraging suppliers to localize battery modules and drivetrains. Similar multi-year road-building and electrification measures in Indonesia and Malaysia foster a regional scale. At the same time, the Inter-American Development Bank estimates that coordinated incentives could raise Latin America’s share of global electric truck sales from 0.45% to 4% by 2030. These initiatives extend purchasing visibility beyond the normal seven-year replacement horizon, enabling component makers to secure capacity and de-risk capital investment. The combination of stimulus funds and local content rules underpins a steady pipeline of orders for chassis, cabs, and charging infrastructure suppliers.

E-Commerce Logistics Expansion

Retail digitization is reshaping network design and accelerating demand for agile 3.5–7.5 ton trucks that can access urban consolidation hubs. The parcel segment is growing at a significant rate through 2030, and global providers such as Amazon have pledged to triple their European electric delivery fleet by 2025. Frequent stop-and-go cycles favor battery-electric drivetrains because of regenerative braking and lower noise levels. Vehicle makers are optimizing cab ergonomics, telematics interfaces, and charging profiles for last-mile duty cycles rather than maximum payload. Regulators are also pushing for smaller, cleaner vehicles to reduce urban congestion and improve air quality, supporting the rapid scaling of micro-depot models^{[1] “Amazon expands zero-emission delivery fleet,” Amazon Europe, aboutamazon.com}.

Telematics-Enabled Usage-Based Insurance Lowers TCO

Connected-vehicle platforms allow insurers to link premiums directly to driving behavior, idle time, and route risk. Early adopters report 20–30% insurance savings and fewer accident claims. Major carriers such as Nationwide partner with telematics suppliers to develop algorithms integrating braking, cornering, and excessive-idling data points. Fleet managers then leverage the same datasets for predictive maintenance, which can lower off-road time by up to 15% and lengthen component lifecycles. These savings are crucial as the Class 8 truck total cost of ownership rose considerably 2024 from 2016. Operators can accelerate electrification strategies without eroding margins by reinvesting the premium savings into driver training and battery leasing.

High Upfront Cost of Zero-Emission Trucks

Battery packs account for 40% of unit cost, leaving electric heavy trucks priced 20–30% above diesel equivalents. Total cost parity is projected within four years as lithium-iron-phosphate chemistries scale, yet many small carriers lack financing headroom. Truck-as-a-service contracts and battery leasing can cut acquisition costs by up to 42% while helping manufacturers generate recurring revenue. Large fleet operators are already adopting these models, but credit-constrained buyers in emerging economies still face high hurdle rates that slow take-up.

Supply-Chain Bottlenecks for Batteries

Lithium, nickel, and semiconductor shortages threaten output plans for electric trucks between 2025 and 2028. Silicon-carbide power modules improve efficiency but require specialized substrates dominated by several suppliers. In response, Daimler Truck, PACCAR, and Cummins formed a USD 2–3 billion joint venture to build a 21 GWh battery cell plant in Mississippi.^{[2]“PACCAR, Daimler Truck and Accelera battery joint venture press release,” PACCAR Inc., paccar.com} Localization will help reduce Asia dependency, but the ramp-up will not fully offset shortages in the medium term. Material volatility, therefore, adds cost pressure and delivery risk, especially for niche variants such as fuel-cell chassis.

Segment Analysis

By Tonnage: Heavy-Duty Dominance Drives Volume

The above-16-ton models contributed around 60.26% of 2024 medium and heavy commercial vehicles market share, securing the largest slice of the medium and heavy commercial vehicles market. Demand is anchored by long-haul freight networks that prioritize payload capacity over convenience when charging. In contrast, the 3.5–7.5 ton class of medium and heavy commercial vehicles is expanding at 7.81% CAGR, outpacing all other bands as urban delivery platforms proliferate. This segment benefits from lower battery requirements as packs of 100–200 kWh suffice for daily routes, reducing capital outlays and charging complexity. Meanwhile, medium-duty units in the 7.5–16-ton range see stable replacement linked to construction and municipal procurement cycles.

Battery size scales steeply with vehicle mass, with heavy haulers needing 500 kWh or more to meet duty-cycle expectations. That requirement inflates curb weight and infrastructure costs, slowing electrification relative to lighter classes. Regulators differentiate limits by gross vehicle weight, compelling manufacturers to balance after-treatment and zero-emission designs across engineering roadmaps. Despite the cost gap, several mining companies are piloting 150-ton electric dumpers that yield life-cycle savings once charging networks are in place.

Note: Segment shares of all individual segments available upon report purchase

By Propulsion Type: ICE Maintains Dominance Despite the Electric Surge

Internal combustion engines retained 91.72% revenue in 2024 of medium and heavy commercial vehicles market share, cementing their lead in the medium and heavy commercial vehicles market. Yet battery-electric trucks are on a steep 9.83% CAGR trajectory to 2030, helped by subsidies, lower operating costs, and rapid urban-fleet adoption. Alternative fuels such as compressed natural gas and liquefied natural gas continue to serve regional niches where electric range or grid access remains problematic. Plug-in hybrids act as transitional solutions for operators who must combine range flexibility with zero-emission urban entry.

China accounted for over 80% of global electric heavy-truck sales in 2024, illustrating the influence of coordinated incentives and local supply chains. Fuel-cell electric prototypes are under test for long-haul corridors where battery mass hurts payload, with early pilots in Germany, South Korea, and the US. The propulsion mix will therefore remain heterogeneous through 2030, driven by total cost of ownership calculations, energy-price trajectories, and infrastructure rollouts.

By Vehicle Type: Rigid Trucks Lead Amid Tractor-Trailer Growth

Rigid trucks delivered 48.24% of 2024 market share in medium and heavy commercial vehicles, well-suited for urban construction, distribution, and refuse collection. Their integrated frame simplifies body customization and reduces maintenance downtime. Tractor-trailers, however, are forecast to post a 9.14% CAGR due to international trade growth and cross-border infrastructure corridors. The medium and heavy commercial vehicles market size for articulated units will expand faster than average as manufacturers introduce aerodynamic cabins and megawatt charging options. Specialized vocational chassis such as tippers and emergency-service vehicles continue to rely on bespoke engineering that limits volume scale but commands high margins.

Electric technology is filtering into both rigid and tractor platforms. Mercedes-Benz launched the eActros 600 with a certified 310-mile range, while Tesla deployed Semi prototypes capable of 248–497 miles depending on configuration. These models demonstrate the pace of energy-density gains and the strategic importance of software for route and charging optimization.

Note: Segment shares of all individual segments available upon report purchase

By End-User Industry: Logistics Dominance Amid Mining Electrification

Logistics and transportation absorbed 42.32% of the 2024 market share and will remain the bedrock of the medium and heavy commercial vehicles market with 4.71% CAGR. Parcel and pallet operators are digitizing dispatch and warehouse nodes, reshaping truck specifications toward quiet drivetrains and high-cycle durability. Construction and municipal services follow closely, procuring medium-duty rigs configured for cement mixers, refuse bodies, or aerial platforms.

Mining operations emerge as a catalyst for battery adoption in the heavy-duty class. The Innovation for Cleaner, Safer Vehicles coalition targets zero-emission haul-truck availability by 2030, a milestone that would unlock significant emissions reductions across roughly 28,000 high-payload units. Utilities and forestry fleets also trial electric rigs to cut noise and particulate levels in sensitive zones, confirming that customer requirements vary widely by sector, geography, and duty cycle.

Geography Analysis

Asia-Pacific’s 45.52% 2024 revenue share stems from China’s production depth and India’s expanding policy push. The region is expected to extend its lead by 2030 because original-equipment manufacturers co-locate battery plants, software centers, and component testing near their largest buyers. China alone supported over 90,000 electric heavy-truck registrations in 2024, with BYD and SAIC exporting kits to Hungary and Indonesia to diversify tariff exposure. India backs 14 state incentive programs, allowing Uttar Pradesh and Maharashtra to create city-level low-emission zones that favor 3.5-ton battery trucks.

North America and Europe represent mature yet lucrative markets where coordinated rules ensure technological harmonization. The EU aims for a 45% CO₂ cut in heavy trucks by 2030, and Euro VII will take effect in 2029. California’s Advanced Clean Trucks rule influences national purchase plans because 11 other states have adopted its roadmap, covering one quarter of the US Class 6-8 demand. Canada targets 35% zero-emission truck sales by 2030 and funds charging corridors on the Trans-Canada Highway. On the corporate side, Volvo and Daimler established a joint venture to create a common operating system, while PACCAR integrates in-house battery packs to shield itself from volatility.

Africa is gaining investment momentum despite modest starting volumes and is rapidly growing with a robust CAGR of 9.10%. Morocco and Egypt order electric buses that share components with medium-duty trucks, creating a nucleus for regional supply. Ethiopia has already exceeded its 2030 bus electrification target, illustrating the potential of aggregated procurement models. South Africa’s EV White Paper sets a dual platform roadmap that combines fuel efficiency upgrades for existing diesels with incentives for fast-charge depots around mining belts. These initiatives point to latent demand that could translate into double-digit shipment growth once grid reliability improves.