Italy Commercial HVAC Market Size & Share Analysis - Growth Trends & Forecasts (2025 - 2030)

Italy Commercial HVAC Market Analysis by Mordor Intelligence

The Italy Commercial HVAC Market size is estimated at USD 0.83 billion in 2025, and is expected to reach USD 1.17 billion by 2030, at a CAGR of 7.05% during the forecast period (2025-2030).

• The commercial sector in Italy is experiencing a notable rise in demand for HVAC equipment, driven largely by a growing preference for air conditioning systems and heat pumps. This trend results from several factors, including climate change, urbanization, changing lifestyles, and technological advancements. The market is benefiting from increased construction in commercial spaces, government backing for eco-friendly construction, and rapid urbanization. For instance, at the beginning of 2024, 72.1% of Italy's population resided in urban areas, with the remaining 27.9% in rural regions.
• Governments are looking forward to introducing stringent regulations, thus mandating the incorporation of heat pumps and a ban on boilers. Such initiatives are driving the market’s growth. For instance, the EU is gearing up to enforce a ban on gas boilers starting in 2029, aligned with the Green Homes Directive. This directive is part of the proposed amendments to the Ecodesign Regulation 813/2013/EU, which delineates the standards for designing and marketing space heating appliances.
• Across several regions in Italy, the demand for cooling surpasses that for heating. As a result, the prevalent choice for heating and cooling solutions is the reversible air-to-air heat pump. While primarily employed for cooling purposes, these systems also effectively meet heating requirements during the colder months, covering a significant portion of the nation.
• Key market players are focusing on new product launches to meet consumer demand. For instance, in March 2024, LG Electronics unveiled its latest residential air conditioner, the DUALCOOL, at MCE 2024 in Milan, Italy. MCE 2024 stands as one of Europe's premier HVAC exhibitions. Running from March 12-15, the event showcased LG's cutting-edge air conditioning innovations, notably highlighting the Soft Air™ feature, designed to elevate indoor comfort throughout the year.
• The construction industry is vital to the Italian economy, employing over three million people and contributing more than EUR 110 billion (USD 119.73 billion) to the country's GDP. The growing construction of commercial buildings and the presence of many commercial buildings in Italy drive demand for HVAC systems to reduce carbon footprint and CO2 emission.
• For instance, in 2023, the Southern region of Italy boasted the largest stock of commercial buildings, with approximately 2.6 million units. The North-West and Central regions followed closely, with around 2.5 million and 2 million commercial units, respectively. This commercial real estate encompasses a variety of non-residential structures, including retail spaces, labs, credit institutions, warehouses, hotels, public offices, and agricultural units.
• The competitive rivalry in the Italian commercial HVAC market studied is high due to its many established vendors. Global manufacturers are focusing on energy efficiency as one of their key concerns. Many players, such as Daikin, Carrier, Robert Bosch Gmbh, Danfoss AS, Mitsubishi Electric Europe BV, and Lennox International Inc., have already started launching energy-efficient HVAC products. Hence, they have become price setters in the market. Thus, comparatively smaller players lack the financial capacity to match the level of technological innovations incorporated in these products and must sell their products at a lower price point.
• The ongoing Russia and Ukraine War has led to political and economic turbulence, diminishing consumer purchasing power in the region. Russia's invasion of Ukraine has significantly impacted the energy sector in many EU countries, including Italy. According to the European Commission, the decline in energy prices in Italy is expected to reduce inflation to 1.6% in 2024, with a slight increase to 1.9% anticipated in 2025. Despite the recovery in real disposable incomes, households are expected to increase their savings, leveraging higher interest rates. These factors are projected to hamper the market’s growth for a short period of time in the country.