United States Commercial Real Estate Market - Growth, Trends, COVID-19 Impact, and Forecasts (2021 - 2026)

The Commercial Real Estate Market in the United States is segmented by Office, Retail, Industrial, Logistics, Hospitality, and Multi-family.

United States Commercial Real Estate Market Snapshot

United States Commercial Real Estate Market
Study Period: 2016 - 2026
Base Year: 2020
CAGR: >1 %

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Market Overview

The U.S market is estimated to be valued at more than 1 trillion dollar and is expected to grow by a CAGR greater than 1% during the forecast period.

The US economic growth in 2020 is expected to slow to between 1.5% to 2% from an average of 2.5% over the last five years. It is because of various factors that create uncertainty, including the ongoing US-China trade war, slowing global growth, and a presidential election coming up. The slow growth is going to continue in 2020, broadly supporting already strong property market fundamentals benefiting from a robust job market, solid consumer confidence, and low-interest rates in the economy.

The commercial real estate continues to recover from demand across office, retail, and multifamily sectors. The demand for office spaces to remain strong in 2020, leasing activity will be mainly driven by tech tenants. However, the transaction volume and capitalization rates to stay relatively stable.

In the office sector, new construction will outperform net absorption, resulting in a net increase to the national opening rate and a slowing of rent development. For retail, rents and net absorption are likely to post slight gains due to a relative shortage of new retail construction. Multifamily is positioned for continued satisfactory performance in 2020 but will experience some dampening due to new supply overtaking demand. Trends likely to gain force in 2020 include developers converting malls to mixed-use multiplexes, Generation Z boosting traffic at retail centers, and health and wellness operate taking more retail space.

Scope of the Report

The report provides key insights into the United States Commercial Real Estate market. It includes technological developments, trends, initiatives taken by the government in this sector. The report sheds light on the trends in the market, like factors driving the market, restraints to the market growth and opportunities going forward. Additionally, the competitive landscape of the commercial real estate market is depicted through the profiles of key players active.

Quantitative and Qualitative Commentary on Supply and Demand
Offices
Retail
Industrial
Logistics
Multi-family
Hospitality
Quantitative and Qualitative Commentary on Supply and Demand
New York
Chicago
Los Angeles
San Francisco
Boston
Denver
Houston
Phoenix
Atlanta
Salt Lake City

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Key Market Trends

Office Demands Shifts Towards Flexibile and Alternative Models

The US office market showed substantial growth in third-quarter 2019 with slowdown apparent in the market. Occupancy remains at a record high while net absorption fell with rents continued to rise. High-growth tech, creative, and life sciences residents continued to drive occupancy gains, while the coworking sector experienced decreasing growth with more friction expected ahead. Despite new supply hitting the market, vacancy currently rests at just 14.2% nationally, while a smaller number of completions led to yet another robust quarter for absorption.

The vacancy may tick up slightly due to the rising volume of construction, asking rents are likely to continue to rise steadily, especially in tighter markets. It is expected that the tech sector will remain the largest lessor of space for the balance of the year. In addition, financial services and coworking should post steady growth as well.

 

United States Commercial Real Estate Market

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Multifamily Completions To Remain Robust In 2020

The overall multifamily vacancy rate is likely to rise by 4.5%, still below the long-term average of 5.1%. Rent growth will flank down to about 2.4%, just beneath the long-term average of 2.6%.

The development will continue in both urban and suburban areas next year. The geographic emphasis, however, is shifting to the suburbs both mid-rise urbanesque products in the densifying suburbs and garden products in a more traditional greenfield setting.

Multifamily developers expected to remain very active in 2020. Permits, starts, and completions were all at or near this cycle’s highest levels in 2019. Multifamily lending activity is also rising due to an expected increase in financing opportunities. The top four markets for multifamily performance are Austin, Atlanta, Phoenix, and Boston.

United States Commercial Real Estate Market

Competitive Landscape

Commercial real estate in the United States has a low level of market share concentration. The industry is extremely diverse and covers a large sector of the economy. Commercial real estate activity has a medium level of capital intensity. Competition between providers will continue to drive market pricing and contractual terms, creating aggressive leasing scenarios. Key players in the commercial real estate market are Simon Property Group, Franklin Street, Shannon-Waltchack, and Progressive Real Estate Partners.

Table of Contents

  1. 1. Introduction

    1. 1.1 Study Assumptions

    2. 1.2 Scope of the Study

  2. 2. Research Methodology

  3. 3. Executive Summary

  4. 4. Market Insights

    1. 4.1 Current Economic Scenario and Consumer Sentiment

    2. 4.2 Commercial Real Estate Buying Trends - Socioeconomic and Demogpaphic Insights

    3. 4.3 Government Initatives, Regulatory Aspects for Commercial Real Estate Sector

    4. 4.4 Insights on Existing and Upcoming Projects

    5. 4.5 Insights on interest rate regime for general economy, and real estate lending

    6. 4.6 Insights on rental yields in commercial real estate segment

    7. 4.7 Insights on capital market penetration and REIT presence in commercial real estate

    8. 4.8 Insights on public-private partnerships in commercial real estate

    9. 4.9 Insights on real estate tech and startups active in real estate segment (broking, social media, facility management, property management)

    10. 4.10 Market Dynamics

      1. 4.10.1 Drivers

      2. 4.10.2 Restraints

      3. 4.10.3 Opportunities

      4. 4.10.4 Challenges

  5. 5. Market Segmentation

    1. 5.1 Quantitative and Qualitative Commentary on Supply and Demand

      1. 5.1.1 Offices

      2. 5.1.2 Retail

      3. 5.1.3 Industrial

      4. 5.1.4 Logistics

      5. 5.1.5 Multi-family

      6. 5.1.6 Hospitality

    2. 5.2 Quantitative and Qualitative Commentary on Supply and Demand

      1. 5.2.1 New York

      2. 5.2.2 Chicago

      3. 5.2.3 Los Angeles

      4. 5.2.4 San Francisco

      5. 5.2.5 Boston

      6. 5.2.6 Denver

      7. 5.2.7 Houston

      8. 5.2.8 Phoenix

      9. 5.2.9 Atlanta

      10. 5.2.10 Salt Lake City

    3. 5.3 Quantitative and Qualitative Commentary on Transaction Volumes (covering property types and key cities, other urban, sub-urban and key rural markets)

  6. 6. Competitve Landscape

    1. 6.1 Market Concentration

    2. 6.2 Company Profiles

      1. 6.2.1 Shannon-Waltchack

      2. 6.2.2 Progressive Real Estate Partners

      3. 6.2.3 John Propp Commercial Group

      4. 6.2.4 Mohr Partners

      5. 6.2.5 Franklin Street

      6. 6.2.6 Simon Property Group

      7. 6.2.7 RE/MAX

      8. 6.2.8 Century 21

      9. 6.2.9 Keller Williams Realty, Inc.

      10. 6.2.10 Coldwell Banker

      11. 6.2.11 JLL PropTech

      12. 6.2.12 CBRE

      13. 6.2.13 Colliers International

      14. 6.2.14 ERA Real Estate

      15. 6.2.15 Zumbly

      16. 6.2.16 Lamudi

      17. 6.2.17 Crexi

      18. 6.2.18 Hightower

      19. 6.2.19 HqO

    3. *List Not Exhaustive
  7. 7. Future of the Market and Analyst Recommendations

  8. 8. Disclaimer

  9. 9. About Us

**Subject to Availability

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Frequently Asked Questions

The United States Commercial Real Estate Market market is studied from 2016 - 2026.

The United States Commercial Real Estate Market is growing at a CAGR of >1% over the next 5 years.

Simon Property Group, Shannon-Waltchack, Progressive Real Estate Partners, John Propp Commercial Group, Mohr Partners are the major companies operating in United States Commercial Real Estate Market.

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