Cocoa Beans Market Size and Share

Cocoa Beans Market (2026 - 2031)

Cocoa Beans Market Analysis by Mordor Intelligence

The cocoa beans market size stands to be USD 19.80 billion in 2026 and is projected to reach USD 26.60 billion by 2031, advancing at a 6.20% CAGR. Rising Asian confectionery demand, widening sustainability rules in Europe and North America, and strategic supply-chain diversification by processors are propelling growth. Tight weather-linked supply, especially in West Africa, is lifting farm-gate prices, accelerating technology adoption at origin, and encouraging origin grinding to reduce freight exposure. Leading traders are intensifying vertical integration and traceability investments to comply with the European Union Deforestation Regulation. Meanwhile, niche craft chocolatiers are disrupting premium channels by sourcing directly from producer cooperatives, fragmenting margins in the higher-grade segment. Production momentum is gradually shifting toward Indonesia, Ecuador, and Vietnam as governments back climate-smart farming and post-harvest infrastructure.

Key Report Takeaways

  • By geography, Europe held 38.2% of the cocoa beans market share in 2025, and Asia-Pacific is set to expand at a 4.9% CAGR to 2031.

Note: Market size and forecast figures in this report are generated using Mordor Intelligence’s proprietary estimation framework, updated with the latest available data and insights as of January 2026.

Geography Analysis

Africa’s higher cocoa bean production share masks sharply different dynamics. Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana faced virus and drought setbacks that squeezed global stocks and pushed ICE futures above USD 4,200 per metric ton in early 2025. Cameroon and Nigeria are rehabilitating farms, but Douala and Lagos port delays dent competitiveness. Uganda entered the supply map with Olam’s new fermentation unit that serves East African grinders. Ghana’s seedling program and Côte d’Ivoire’s satellite alerts are to buttress medium-term stability, anchoring Africa’s prominent role in the cocoa beans market.

Europe remains the largest consuming bloc, accounting for 38.2% of the cocoa beans market share in 2025. Grinding clusters in the Netherlands, Germany, and Belgium supply finished cocoa liquor to neighboring confectioners. Flat per-capita intake reflects a health-driven shift to dark variants and greater use of cocoa butter alternatives. European Union deforestation rules elevate compliance spend. Barry Callebaut recorded EUR 45 million (USD 49 million) in 2024 mapping costs[3]Barry Callebaut AG, “Annual Report 2024,” barry-callebaut.com. Russian imports fell 18% amid payment sanctions, prompting European processors to redirect exports to the Middle East.

Asia-Pacific is the fastest-growing node in the cocoa beans market with a CAGR of 4.9% through 2031. Indonesia, with 7.5% output share, is scaling solar fermentation that boosts export-grade ratios. China’s chocolate retail expanded 9.1% in 2025 as urban incomes climbed, and India’s organized retail reached 42% penetration. Vietnam is nurturing nurseries to secure 15,000 metric tons of exports by 2028. Singapore and Malaysia remain re-export hubs, yet are eclipsed by China and India’s scale. Asia’s dual role as a consumer growth engine and emerging origin reshapes trade flows in the cocoa beans market.

Cocoa Beans Market CAGR (%), Growth Rate by Region
Get Analysis on Important Geographic Markets
Download PDF

Competitive Landscape

The cocoa beans market is highly concentrated, with the top five companies accounting for a significant share, strengthening their bargaining power across the value chain. Barry Callebaut AG invested USD 120 million in Côte d’Ivoire in 2025 to add 60,000 metric tons of cocoa bean grinding capacity and introduce blockchain traceability. Cargill, incorporated, partnered with Indonesia’s government to install 500 solar fermentation chambers, cutting cocoa bean post-harvest losses by 15%.

Smaller exporters in Cameroon and Nigeria are squeezed by 3% to 5% compliance cost surcharges, inviting acquisition by well-capitalized multinationals. Nonetheless, premium craft chocolatiers in North America and Europe bypass traditional traders, contracting directly with South American cooperatives, which fragments the premium end and limits bulk intermediaries’ pricing power. 

Emerging disruptors include Vietnamese alliances focusing on single-origin bars and Japanese developers of synthetic cocoa flavor molecules, potentially reducing raw bean demand. Certification programs like Rainforest Alliance and Fair Trade maintain an 8% to 12% price premium in Europe and North America. Opportunities include technology-driven traceability, Africa's supply rehabilitation, and Asia's growing consumption. Multinationals investing in satellite monitoring, blockchain, and origin processing are positioned to gain market share as regulations tighten. Innovators in flavor compounds and farm-level carbon credits may also carve out niches in the cocoa beans market.

Recent Industry Developments

  • August 2025: Nestlé has introduced a patented technique that uses up to 30% more cocoa fruit in chocolate production while preserving its taste. This method reduces waste and enables farmers to achieve higher yields and greater value from their cocoa harvests.
  • April 2024: Barry Callebaut Group officially launched the Future Farming Initiative (FFI) to establish a fully scalable, high-tech, and sustainable cocoa farming business. This initiative is to enhance the cocoa bean market by improving production efficiency, ensuring sustainability, and meeting growing global demand.
  • October 2024: Guan Chong Berhad (GCB), a Malaysian manufacturer of cocoa-based food ingredients, has signed a memorandum of understanding to acquire a 25% ownership stake in Transcao Côte d'Ivoire, a cocoa processing company based in Côte d’Ivoire. This acquisition is to strengthen the cocoa bean market by enhancing processing capabilities and fostering greater collaboration within the supply chain.

Table of Contents for Cocoa Beans Industry Report

1. Introduction

  • 1.1 Study Assumptions and Market Definition
  • 1.2 Scope of the Study

2. Research Methodology

3. Executive Summary

4. Market Landscape

  • 4.1 Market Overview
  • 4.2 Market Drivers
    • 4.2.1 Demand for Cocoa Beans in the Chocolate Industry
    • 4.2.2 Rising Adoption of Precision and Climate-Smart Farming Technologies
    • 4.2.3 Supportive Government Sustainability Programs and Subsidies
    • 4.2.4 Expansion of Cocoa-Based Functional ready-to-drink (RTD) Beverage Lines
    • 4.2.5 Premiumization Trend in Niche Craft Chocolate Driving Fine-Flavor Bean Demand
    • 4.2.6 Commodity Fund Inflows Seeking Inflation Hedges
  • 4.3 Market Restraints
    • 4.3.1 Disease Outbreaks and Intensifying Climate Volatility in Origin Countries
    • 4.3.2 Emergence of Cocoa Butter Equivalents and Synthetic Flavor Compounds
    • 4.3.3 Heightened ESG Scrutiny Raising Compliance Costs for Traders
    • 4.3.4 Volatile Freight Rates and Port Congestion
  • 4.4 Opportunities
  • 4.5 Challenges
  • 4.6 Value Chain Analysis
  • 4.7 Technologies and usage of AI in the Industry
  • 4.8 Input Market Analysis
    • 4.8.1 Seeds
    • 4.8.2 Fertilizers
    • 4.8.3 Crop Protection Chemicals
  • 4.9 Distribution Channel Analysis
  • 4.10 Market Sentiment Analysis
  • 4.11 PESTLE Analysis

5. Market Size and Growth Forecasts (Value and Volume)

  • 5.1 By Geography
    • 5.1.1 North America
    • 5.1.1.1 United States
    • 5.1.1.1.1 Production Analysis (Area Harvested, Yield, and Production Volume)
    • 5.1.1.1.2 Consumption Analysis (Consumption Value and Volume)
    • 5.1.1.1.3 Import Market Analysis (Import Value, Volume, and Key Supplying Markets)
    • 5.1.1.1.4 Export Market Analysis (Export Value, Volume, and Key Destination Markets)
    • 5.1.1.1.5 Wholesale Price Trend Analysis and Forecast
    • 5.1.1.1.6 Regulatory Framework
    • 5.1.1.1.7 List of Key Players
    • 5.1.1.1.8 Logistics and Infrastructure
    • 5.1.1.1.9 Seasonality Analysis
    • 5.1.1.2 Canada
    • 5.1.1.2.1 Production Analysis (Area Harvested, Yield, and Production Volume)
    • 5.1.1.2.2 Consumption Analysis (Consumption Value and Volume)
    • 5.1.1.2.3 Import Market Analysis (Import Value, Volume, and Key Supplying Markets)
    • 5.1.1.2.4 Export Market Analysis (Export Value, Volume, and Key Destination Markets)
    • 5.1.1.2.5 Wholesale Price Trend Analysis and Forecast
    • 5.1.1.2.6 Regulatory Framework
    • 5.1.1.2.7 List of Key Players
    • 5.1.1.2.8 Logistics and Infrastructure
    • 5.1.1.2.9 Seasonality Analysis
    • 5.1.2 Europe
    • 5.1.2.1 Germany
    • 5.1.2.1.1 Production Analysis (Area Harvested, Yield, and Production Volume)
    • 5.1.2.1.2 Consumption Analysis (Consumption Value and Volume)
    • 5.1.2.1.3 Import Market Analysis (Import Value, Volume, and Key Supplying Markets)
    • 5.1.2.1.4 Export Market Analysis (Export Value, Volume, and Key Destination Markets)
    • 5.1.2.1.5 Wholesale Price Trend Analysis and Forecast
    • 5.1.2.1.6 Regulatory Framework
    • 5.1.2.1.7 List of Key Players
    • 5.1.2.1.8 Logistics and Infrastructure
    • 5.1.2.1.9 Seasonality Analysis
    • 5.1.2.2 Netherlands
    • 5.1.2.2.1 Production Analysis (Area Harvested, Yield, and Production Volume)
    • 5.1.2.2.2 Consumption Analysis (Consumption Value and Volume)
    • 5.1.2.2.3 Import Market Analysis (Import Value, Volume, and Key Supplying Markets)
    • 5.1.2.2.4 Export Market Analysis (Export Value, Volume, and Key Destination Markets)
    • 5.1.2.2.5 Wholesale Price Trend Analysis and Forecast
    • 5.1.2.2.6 Regulatory Framework
    • 5.1.2.2.7 List of Key Players
    • 5.1.2.2.8 Logistics and Infrastructure
    • 5.1.2.2.9 Seasonality Analysis
    • 5.1.2.3 United Kingdom
    • 5.1.2.3.1 Production Analysis (Area Harvested, Yield, and Production Volume)
    • 5.1.2.3.2 Consumption Analysis (Consumption Value and Volume)
    • 5.1.2.3.3 Import Market Analysis (Import Value, Volume, and Key Supplying Markets)
    • 5.1.2.3.4 Export Market Analysis (Export Value, Volume, and Key Destination Markets)
    • 5.1.2.3.5 Wholesale Price Trend Analysis and Forecast
    • 5.1.2.3.6 Regulatory Framework
    • 5.1.2.3.7 List of Key Players
    • 5.1.2.3.8 Logistics and Infrastructure
    • 5.1.2.3.9 Seasonality Analysis
    • 5.1.2.4 France
    • 5.1.2.4.1 Production Analysis (Area Harvested, Yield, and Production Volume)
    • 5.1.2.4.2 Consumption Analysis (Consumption Value and Volume)
    • 5.1.2.4.3 Import Market Analysis (Import Value, Volume, and Key Supplying Markets)
    • 5.1.2.4.4 Export Market Analysis (Export Value, Volume, and Key Destination Markets)
    • 5.1.2.4.5 Wholesale Price Trend Analysis and Forecast
    • 5.1.2.4.6 Regulatory Framework
    • 5.1.2.4.7 List of Key Players
    • 5.1.2.4.8 Logistics and Infrastructure
    • 5.1.2.4.9 Seasonality Analysis
    • 5.1.2.5 Belgium
    • 5.1.2.5.1 Production Analysis (Area Harvested, Yield, and Production Volume)
    • 5.1.2.5.2 Consumption Analysis (Consumption Value and Volume)
    • 5.1.2.5.3 Import Market Analysis (Import Value, Volume, and Key Supplying Markets)
    • 5.1.2.5.4 Export Market Analysis (Export Value, Volume, and Key Destination Markets)
    • 5.1.2.5.5 Wholesale Price Trend Analysis and Forecast
    • 5.1.2.5.6 Regulatory Framework
    • 5.1.2.5.7 List of Key Players
    • 5.1.2.5.8 Logistics and Infrastructure
    • 5.1.2.5.9 Seasonality Analysis
    • 5.1.2.6 Russia
    • 5.1.2.6.1 Production Analysis (Area Harvested, Yield, and Production Volume)
    • 5.1.2.6.2 Consumption Analysis (Consumption Value and Volume)
    • 5.1.2.6.3 Import Market Analysis (Import Value, Volume, and Key Supplying Markets)
    • 5.1.2.6.4 Export Market Analysis (Export Value, Volume, and Key Destination Markets)
    • 5.1.2.6.5 Wholesale Price Trend Analysis and Forecast
    • 5.1.2.6.6 Regulatory Framework
    • 5.1.2.6.7 List of Key Players
    • 5.1.2.6.8 Logistics and Infrastructure
    • 5.1.2.6.9 Seasonality Analysis
    • 5.1.3 Asia-Pacific
    • 5.1.3.1 India
    • 5.1.3.1.1 Production Analysis (Area Harvested, Yield, and Production Volume)
    • 5.1.3.1.2 Consumption Analysis (Consumption Value and Volume)
    • 5.1.3.1.3 Import Market Analysis (Import Value, Volume, and Key Supplying Markets)
    • 5.1.3.1.4 Export Market Analysis (Export Value, Volume, and Key Destination Markets)
    • 5.1.3.1.5 Wholesale Price Trend Analysis and Forecast
    • 5.1.3.1.6 Regulatory Framework
    • 5.1.3.1.7 List of Key Players
    • 5.1.3.1.8 Logistics and Infrastructure
    • 5.1.3.1.9 Seasonality Analysis
    • 5.1.3.2 Malaysia
    • 5.1.3.2.1 Production Analysis (Area Harvested, Yield, and Production Volume)
    • 5.1.3.2.2 Consumption Analysis (Consumption Value and Volume)
    • 5.1.3.2.3 Import Market Analysis (Import Value, Volume, and Key Supplying Markets)
    • 5.1.3.2.4 Export Market Analysis (Export Value, Volume, and Key Destination Markets)
    • 5.1.3.2.5 Wholesale Price Trend Analysis and Forecast
    • 5.1.3.2.6 Regulatory Framework
    • 5.1.3.2.7 List of Key Players
    • 5.1.3.2.8 Logistics and Infrastructure
    • 5.1.3.2.9 Seasonality Analysis
    • 5.1.3.3 Indonesia
    • 5.1.3.3.1 Production Analysis (Area Harvested, Yield, and Production Volume)
    • 5.1.3.3.2 Consumption Analysis (Consumption Value and Volume)
    • 5.1.3.3.3 Import Market Analysis (Import Value, Volume, and Key Supplying Markets)
    • 5.1.3.3.4 Export Market Analysis (Export Value, Volume, and Key Destination Markets)
    • 5.1.3.3.5 Wholesale Price Trend Analysis and Forecast
    • 5.1.3.3.6 Regulatory Framework
    • 5.1.3.3.7 List of Key Players
    • 5.1.3.3.8 Logistics and Infrastructure
    • 5.1.3.3.9 Seasonality Analysis
    • 5.1.3.4 Singapore
    • 5.1.3.4.1 Production Analysis (Area Harvested, Yield, and Production Volume)
    • 5.1.3.4.2 Consumption Analysis (Consumption Value and Volume)
    • 5.1.3.4.3 Import Market Analysis (Import Value, Volume, and Key Supplying Markets)
    • 5.1.3.4.4 Export Market Analysis (Export Value, Volume, and Key Destination Markets)
    • 5.1.3.4.5 Wholesale Price Trend Analysis and Forecast
    • 5.1.3.4.6 Regulatory Framework
    • 5.1.3.4.7 List of Key Players
    • 5.1.3.4.8 Logistics and Infrastructure
    • 5.1.3.4.9 Seasonality Analysis
    • 5.1.3.5 Japan
    • 5.1.3.5.1 Production Analysis (Area Harvested, Yield, and Production Volume)
    • 5.1.3.5.2 Consumption Analysis (Consumption Value and Volume)
    • 5.1.3.5.3 Import Market Analysis (Import Value, Volume, and Key Supplying Markets)
    • 5.1.3.5.4 Export Market Analysis (Export Value, Volume, and Key Destination Markets)
    • 5.1.3.5.5 Wholesale Price Trend Analysis and Forecast
    • 5.1.3.5.6 Regulatory Framework
    • 5.1.3.5.7 List of Key Players
    • 5.1.3.5.8 Logistics and Infrastructure
    • 5.1.3.5.9 Seasonality Analysis
    • 5.1.4 South America
    • 5.1.4.1 Brazil
    • 5.1.4.1.1 Production Analysis (Area Harvested, Yield, and Production Volume)
    • 5.1.4.1.2 Consumption Analysis (Consumption Value and Volume)
    • 5.1.4.1.3 Import Market Analysis (Import Value, Volume, and Key Supplying Markets)
    • 5.1.4.1.4 Export Market Analysis (Export Value, Volume, and Key Destination Markets)
    • 5.1.4.1.5 Wholesale Price Trend Analysis and Forecast
    • 5.1.4.1.6 Regulatory Framework
    • 5.1.4.1.7 List of Key Players
    • 5.1.4.1.8 Logistics and Infrastructure
    • 5.1.4.1.9 Seasonality Analysis
    • 5.1.4.2 Ecuador
    • 5.1.4.2.1 Production Analysis (Area Harvested, Yield, and Production Volume)
    • 5.1.4.2.2 Consumption Analysis (Consumption Value and Volume)
    • 5.1.4.2.3 Import Market Analysis (Import Value, Volume, and Key Supplying Markets)
    • 5.1.4.2.4 Export Market Analysis (Export Value, Volume, and Key Destination Markets)
    • 5.1.4.2.5 Wholesale Price Trend Analysis and Forecast
    • 5.1.4.2.6 Regulatory Framework
    • 5.1.4.2.7 List of Key Players
    • 5.1.4.2.8 Logistics and Infrastructure
    • 5.1.4.2.9 Seasonality Analysis
    • 5.1.5 Middle East
    • 5.1.5.1 United Arab Emirates
    • 5.1.5.1.1 Production Analysis (Area Harvested, Yield, and Production Volume)
    • 5.1.5.1.2 Consumption Analysis (Consumption Value and Volume)
    • 5.1.5.1.3 Import Market Analysis (Import Value, Volume, and Key Supplying Markets)
    • 5.1.5.1.4 Export Market Analysis (Export Value, Volume, and Key Destination Markets)
    • 5.1.5.1.5 Wholesale Price Trend Analysis and Forecast
    • 5.1.5.1.6 Regulatory Framework
    • 5.1.5.1.7 List of Key Players
    • 5.1.5.1.8 Logistics and Infrastructure
    • 5.1.5.1.9 Seasonality Analysis
    • 5.1.5.2 Saudi Arabia
    • 5.1.5.2.1 Production Analysis (Area Harvested, Yield, and Production Volume)
    • 5.1.5.2.2 Consumption Analysis (Consumption Value and Volume)
    • 5.1.5.2.3 Import Market Analysis (Import Value, Volume, and Key Supplying Markets)
    • 5.1.5.2.4 Export Market Analysis (Export Value, Volume, and Key Destination Markets)
    • 5.1.5.2.5 Wholesale Price Trend Analysis and Forecast
    • 5.1.5.2.6 Regulatory Framework
    • 5.1.5.2.7 List of Key Players
    • 5.1.5.2.8 Logistics and Infrastructure
    • 5.1.5.2.9 Seasonality Analysis
    • 5.1.5.3 Iran
    • 5.1.5.3.1 Production Analysis (Area Harvested, Yield, and Production Volume)
    • 5.1.5.3.2 Consumption Analysis (Consumption Value and Volume)
    • 5.1.5.3.3 Import Market Analysis (Import Value, Volume, and Key Supplying Markets)
    • 5.1.5.3.4 Export Market Analysis (Export Value, Volume, and Key Destination Markets)
    • 5.1.5.3.5 Wholesale Price Trend Analysis and Forecast
    • 5.1.5.3.6 Regulatory Framework
    • 5.1.5.3.7 List of Key Players
    • 5.1.5.3.8 Logistics and Infrastructure
    • 5.1.5.3.9 Seasonality Analysis
    • 5.1.6 Africa
    • 5.1.6.1 Ghana
    • 5.1.6.1.1 Production Analysis (Area Harvested, Yield, and Production Volume)
    • 5.1.6.1.2 Consumption Analysis (Consumption Value and Volume)
    • 5.1.6.1.3 Import Market Analysis (Import Value, Volume, and Key Supplying Markets)
    • 5.1.6.1.4 Export Market Analysis (Export Value, Volume, and Key Destination Markets)
    • 5.1.6.1.5 Wholesale Price Trend Analysis and Forecast
    • 5.1.6.1.6 Regulatory Framework
    • 5.1.6.1.7 List of Key Players
    • 5.1.6.1.8 Logistics and Infrastructure
    • 5.1.6.1.9 Seasonality Analysis
    • 5.1.6.2 Cote d'Ivoire
    • 5.1.6.2.1 Production Analysis (Area Harvested, Yield, and Production Volume)
    • 5.1.6.2.2 Consumption Analysis (Consumption Value and Volume)
    • 5.1.6.2.3 Import Market Analysis (Import Value, Volume, and Key Supplying Markets)
    • 5.1.6.2.4 Export Market Analysis (Export Value, Volume, and Key Destination Markets)
    • 5.1.6.2.5 Wholesale Price Trend Analysis and Forecast
    • 5.1.6.2.6 Regulatory Framework
    • 5.1.6.2.7 List of Key Players
    • 5.1.6.2.8 Logistics and Infrastructure
    • 5.1.6.2.9 Seasonality Analysis
    • 5.1.6.3 Uganda
    • 5.1.6.3.1 Production Analysis (Area Harvested, Yield, and Production Volume)
    • 5.1.6.3.2 Consumption Analysis (Consumption Value and Volume)
    • 5.1.6.3.3 Import Market Analysis (Import Value, Volume, and Key Supplying Markets)
    • 5.1.6.3.4 Export Market Analysis (Export Value, Volume, and Key Destination Markets)
    • 5.1.6.3.5 Wholesale Price Trend Analysis and Forecast
    • 5.1.6.3.6 Regulatory Framework
    • 5.1.6.3.7 List of Key Players
    • 5.1.6.3.8 Logistics and Infrastructure
    • 5.1.6.3.9 Seasonality Analysis
    • 5.1.6.4 Nigeria
    • 5.1.6.4.1 Production Analysis (Area Harvested, Yield, and Production Volume)
    • 5.1.6.4.2 Consumption Analysis (Consumption Value and Volume)
    • 5.1.6.4.3 Import Market Analysis (Import Value, Volume, and Key Supplying Markets)
    • 5.1.6.4.4 Export Market Analysis (Export Value, Volume, and Key Destination Markets)
    • 5.1.6.4.5 Wholesale Price Trend Analysis and Forecast
    • 5.1.6.4.6 Regulatory Framework
    • 5.1.6.4.7 List of Key Players
    • 5.1.6.4.8 Logistics and Infrastructure
    • 5.1.6.4.9 Seasonality Analysis
    • 5.1.6.5 Cameroon
    • 5.1.6.5.1 Production Analysis (Area Harvested, Yield, and Production Volume)
    • 5.1.6.5.2 Consumption Analysis (Consumption Value and Volume)
    • 5.1.6.5.3 Import Market Analysis (Import Value, Volume, and Key Supplying Markets)
    • 5.1.6.5.4 Export Market Analysis (Export Value, Volume, and Key Destination Markets)
    • 5.1.6.5.5 Wholesale Price Trend Analysis and Forecast
    • 5.1.6.5.6 Regulatory Framework
    • 5.1.6.5.7 List of Key Players
    • 5.1.6.5.8 Logistics and Infrastructure
    • 5.1.6.5.9 Seasonality Analysis

6. End Use Applications and Industries

  • 6.1 Primary Applications and Emerging Applications
  • 6.2 Consumption Breakdown by Industries

7. Competitive Landscape

  • 7.1 Overview of the Competition
  • 7.2 Recent Developments
  • 7.3 Market Concentration Analysis

8. Market Opportunities and Future Outlook

You Can Purchase Parts Of This Report. Check Out Prices For Specific Sections
Get Price Break-up Now

Research Methodology Framework and Report Scope

Market Definitions and Key Coverage

Our study defines the global cocoa beans market as the value of whole, fermented and dried beans of Theobroma cacao that enter formal trade channels for onward processing into liquor, butter, or powder. Coverage spans production, trade, and apparent consumption in value (USD) and volume terms across five broad regions.

Explicitly excluded are downstream chocolate confectionery, intermediate derivatives sold separately, and any beans moving through purely informal barter chains.

Segmentation Overview

  • By Geography
    • North America
      • United States
        • Production Analysis (Area Harvested, Yield, and Production Volume)
        • Consumption Analysis (Consumption Value and Volume)
        • Import Market Analysis (Import Value, Volume, and Key Supplying Markets)
        • Export Market Analysis (Export Value, Volume, and Key Destination Markets)
        • Wholesale Price Trend Analysis and Forecast
        • Regulatory Framework
        • List of Key Players
        • Logistics and Infrastructure
        • Seasonality Analysis
      • Canada
        • Production Analysis (Area Harvested, Yield, and Production Volume)
        • Consumption Analysis (Consumption Value and Volume)
        • Import Market Analysis (Import Value, Volume, and Key Supplying Markets)
        • Export Market Analysis (Export Value, Volume, and Key Destination Markets)
        • Wholesale Price Trend Analysis and Forecast
        • Regulatory Framework
        • List of Key Players
        • Logistics and Infrastructure
        • Seasonality Analysis
    • Europe
      • Germany
        • Production Analysis (Area Harvested, Yield, and Production Volume)
        • Consumption Analysis (Consumption Value and Volume)
        • Import Market Analysis (Import Value, Volume, and Key Supplying Markets)
        • Export Market Analysis (Export Value, Volume, and Key Destination Markets)
        • Wholesale Price Trend Analysis and Forecast
        • Regulatory Framework
        • List of Key Players
        • Logistics and Infrastructure
        • Seasonality Analysis
      • Netherlands
        • Production Analysis (Area Harvested, Yield, and Production Volume)
        • Consumption Analysis (Consumption Value and Volume)
        • Import Market Analysis (Import Value, Volume, and Key Supplying Markets)
        • Export Market Analysis (Export Value, Volume, and Key Destination Markets)
        • Wholesale Price Trend Analysis and Forecast
        • Regulatory Framework
        • List of Key Players
        • Logistics and Infrastructure
        • Seasonality Analysis
      • United Kingdom
        • Production Analysis (Area Harvested, Yield, and Production Volume)
        • Consumption Analysis (Consumption Value and Volume)
        • Import Market Analysis (Import Value, Volume, and Key Supplying Markets)
        • Export Market Analysis (Export Value, Volume, and Key Destination Markets)
        • Wholesale Price Trend Analysis and Forecast
        • Regulatory Framework
        • List of Key Players
        • Logistics and Infrastructure
        • Seasonality Analysis
      • France
        • Production Analysis (Area Harvested, Yield, and Production Volume)
        • Consumption Analysis (Consumption Value and Volume)
        • Import Market Analysis (Import Value, Volume, and Key Supplying Markets)
        • Export Market Analysis (Export Value, Volume, and Key Destination Markets)
        • Wholesale Price Trend Analysis and Forecast
        • Regulatory Framework
        • List of Key Players
        • Logistics and Infrastructure
        • Seasonality Analysis
      • Belgium
        • Production Analysis (Area Harvested, Yield, and Production Volume)
        • Consumption Analysis (Consumption Value and Volume)
        • Import Market Analysis (Import Value, Volume, and Key Supplying Markets)
        • Export Market Analysis (Export Value, Volume, and Key Destination Markets)
        • Wholesale Price Trend Analysis and Forecast
        • Regulatory Framework
        • List of Key Players
        • Logistics and Infrastructure
        • Seasonality Analysis
      • Russia
        • Production Analysis (Area Harvested, Yield, and Production Volume)
        • Consumption Analysis (Consumption Value and Volume)
        • Import Market Analysis (Import Value, Volume, and Key Supplying Markets)
        • Export Market Analysis (Export Value, Volume, and Key Destination Markets)
        • Wholesale Price Trend Analysis and Forecast
        • Regulatory Framework
        • List of Key Players
        • Logistics and Infrastructure
        • Seasonality Analysis
    • Asia-Pacific
      • India
        • Production Analysis (Area Harvested, Yield, and Production Volume)
        • Consumption Analysis (Consumption Value and Volume)
        • Import Market Analysis (Import Value, Volume, and Key Supplying Markets)
        • Export Market Analysis (Export Value, Volume, and Key Destination Markets)
        • Wholesale Price Trend Analysis and Forecast
        • Regulatory Framework
        • List of Key Players
        • Logistics and Infrastructure
        • Seasonality Analysis
      • Malaysia
        • Production Analysis (Area Harvested, Yield, and Production Volume)
        • Consumption Analysis (Consumption Value and Volume)
        • Import Market Analysis (Import Value, Volume, and Key Supplying Markets)
        • Export Market Analysis (Export Value, Volume, and Key Destination Markets)
        • Wholesale Price Trend Analysis and Forecast
        • Regulatory Framework
        • List of Key Players
        • Logistics and Infrastructure
        • Seasonality Analysis
      • Indonesia
        • Production Analysis (Area Harvested, Yield, and Production Volume)
        • Consumption Analysis (Consumption Value and Volume)
        • Import Market Analysis (Import Value, Volume, and Key Supplying Markets)
        • Export Market Analysis (Export Value, Volume, and Key Destination Markets)
        • Wholesale Price Trend Analysis and Forecast
        • Regulatory Framework
        • List of Key Players
        • Logistics and Infrastructure
        • Seasonality Analysis
      • Singapore
        • Production Analysis (Area Harvested, Yield, and Production Volume)
        • Consumption Analysis (Consumption Value and Volume)
        • Import Market Analysis (Import Value, Volume, and Key Supplying Markets)
        • Export Market Analysis (Export Value, Volume, and Key Destination Markets)
        • Wholesale Price Trend Analysis and Forecast
        • Regulatory Framework
        • List of Key Players
        • Logistics and Infrastructure
        • Seasonality Analysis
      • Japan
        • Production Analysis (Area Harvested, Yield, and Production Volume)
        • Consumption Analysis (Consumption Value and Volume)
        • Import Market Analysis (Import Value, Volume, and Key Supplying Markets)
        • Export Market Analysis (Export Value, Volume, and Key Destination Markets)
        • Wholesale Price Trend Analysis and Forecast
        • Regulatory Framework
        • List of Key Players
        • Logistics and Infrastructure
        • Seasonality Analysis
    • South America
      • Brazil
        • Production Analysis (Area Harvested, Yield, and Production Volume)
        • Consumption Analysis (Consumption Value and Volume)
        • Import Market Analysis (Import Value, Volume, and Key Supplying Markets)
        • Export Market Analysis (Export Value, Volume, and Key Destination Markets)
        • Wholesale Price Trend Analysis and Forecast
        • Regulatory Framework
        • List of Key Players
        • Logistics and Infrastructure
        • Seasonality Analysis
      • Ecuador
        • Production Analysis (Area Harvested, Yield, and Production Volume)
        • Consumption Analysis (Consumption Value and Volume)
        • Import Market Analysis (Import Value, Volume, and Key Supplying Markets)
        • Export Market Analysis (Export Value, Volume, and Key Destination Markets)
        • Wholesale Price Trend Analysis and Forecast
        • Regulatory Framework
        • List of Key Players
        • Logistics and Infrastructure
        • Seasonality Analysis
    • Middle East
      • United Arab Emirates
        • Production Analysis (Area Harvested, Yield, and Production Volume)
        • Consumption Analysis (Consumption Value and Volume)
        • Import Market Analysis (Import Value, Volume, and Key Supplying Markets)
        • Export Market Analysis (Export Value, Volume, and Key Destination Markets)
        • Wholesale Price Trend Analysis and Forecast
        • Regulatory Framework
        • List of Key Players
        • Logistics and Infrastructure
        • Seasonality Analysis
      • Saudi Arabia
        • Production Analysis (Area Harvested, Yield, and Production Volume)
        • Consumption Analysis (Consumption Value and Volume)
        • Import Market Analysis (Import Value, Volume, and Key Supplying Markets)
        • Export Market Analysis (Export Value, Volume, and Key Destination Markets)
        • Wholesale Price Trend Analysis and Forecast
        • Regulatory Framework
        • List of Key Players
        • Logistics and Infrastructure
        • Seasonality Analysis
      • Iran
        • Production Analysis (Area Harvested, Yield, and Production Volume)
        • Consumption Analysis (Consumption Value and Volume)
        • Import Market Analysis (Import Value, Volume, and Key Supplying Markets)
        • Export Market Analysis (Export Value, Volume, and Key Destination Markets)
        • Wholesale Price Trend Analysis and Forecast
        • Regulatory Framework
        • List of Key Players
        • Logistics and Infrastructure
        • Seasonality Analysis
    • Africa
      • Ghana
        • Production Analysis (Area Harvested, Yield, and Production Volume)
        • Consumption Analysis (Consumption Value and Volume)
        • Import Market Analysis (Import Value, Volume, and Key Supplying Markets)
        • Export Market Analysis (Export Value, Volume, and Key Destination Markets)
        • Wholesale Price Trend Analysis and Forecast
        • Regulatory Framework
        • List of Key Players
        • Logistics and Infrastructure
        • Seasonality Analysis
      • Cote d'Ivoire
        • Production Analysis (Area Harvested, Yield, and Production Volume)
        • Consumption Analysis (Consumption Value and Volume)
        • Import Market Analysis (Import Value, Volume, and Key Supplying Markets)
        • Export Market Analysis (Export Value, Volume, and Key Destination Markets)
        • Wholesale Price Trend Analysis and Forecast
        • Regulatory Framework
        • List of Key Players
        • Logistics and Infrastructure
        • Seasonality Analysis
      • Uganda
        • Production Analysis (Area Harvested, Yield, and Production Volume)
        • Consumption Analysis (Consumption Value and Volume)
        • Import Market Analysis (Import Value, Volume, and Key Supplying Markets)
        • Export Market Analysis (Export Value, Volume, and Key Destination Markets)
        • Wholesale Price Trend Analysis and Forecast
        • Regulatory Framework
        • List of Key Players
        • Logistics and Infrastructure
        • Seasonality Analysis
      • Nigeria
        • Production Analysis (Area Harvested, Yield, and Production Volume)
        • Consumption Analysis (Consumption Value and Volume)
        • Import Market Analysis (Import Value, Volume, and Key Supplying Markets)
        • Export Market Analysis (Export Value, Volume, and Key Destination Markets)
        • Wholesale Price Trend Analysis and Forecast
        • Regulatory Framework
        • List of Key Players
        • Logistics and Infrastructure
        • Seasonality Analysis
      • Cameroon
        • Production Analysis (Area Harvested, Yield, and Production Volume)
        • Consumption Analysis (Consumption Value and Volume)
        • Import Market Analysis (Import Value, Volume, and Key Supplying Markets)
        • Export Market Analysis (Export Value, Volume, and Key Destination Markets)
        • Wholesale Price Trend Analysis and Forecast
        • Regulatory Framework
        • List of Key Players
        • Logistics and Infrastructure
        • Seasonality Analysis

Detailed Research Methodology and Data Validation

Primary Research

Interviews with farm-gate aggregators in Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana, mid-stream grinders in the Netherlands and Malaysia, and procurement managers at beverage innovators in the United States allow us to test secondary ratios, sense-check unit prices, and refine yield loss and contract premium assumptions that desktop work alone cannot surface.

Desk Research

During desk research, we draw first on high-credibility, open datasets such as FAOSTAT crop balances, UN Comtrade trade codes 1801 and 1803, International Cocoa Organization quarterly bulletins, and price series from the World Bank Commodities database. Alongside public statistics, our team screens scholarly journals on plant science and climate resilience, plus policy notes from ECOWAS and the European Parliament that frame sustainability and traceability rules affecting bean flows.

Company annual reports, IPO filings, and audited processor capacity disclosures supply conversion yields and utilization benchmarks, which are then contrasted with shipment-level insights gathered through D&B Hoovers and Volza. The sources named are illustrative; many further records inform data collection, validation, and clarification.

Market-Sizing & Forecasting

For quantification, we apply a top-down production and trade reconstruct: starting with harvested tonnage, subtracting farm losses, and valuing the clean bean pool at region-specific average selling prices. Results are corroborated through selective bottom-up roll-ups of grinder capacity and sampled average selling price multiplied by volume invoices, which help us adjust for unreported artisan flows. Key variables feeding the model include hectare yields, certified-bean penetration, terminal exchange prices, grind-to-press ratios, and regional dark-chocolate share of confectionery demand. Scenario analysis coupled with multivariate regression against GDP per capita and retail chocolate spend projects the market from 2025 to 2030. Where bottom-up evidence lags, interpolation is guided by three-year moving averages of ICCO stock-to-grind ratios.

Data Validation & Update Cycle

Before finalization, Mordor analysts run variance checks against ICCO supply balances and customs data outliers, escalate anomalies for peer review, and document every adjustment. Reports refresh annually, with interim updates triggered by material events such as extreme price shocks or regulatory changes; a fresh analyst pass occurs just prior to delivery so clients receive the latest view.

Why Mordor's Cocoa Beans Baseline Commands Reliability

Published estimates often diverge because firms choose different bean definitions, price assumptions, and refresh cadences. According to Mordor Intelligence, anchoring the baseline in physically traded beans and vetting price series directly with grinders keeps our figure grounded and repeatable.

The main spread in values arises when other publishers fold in derivatives, apply constant-currency conversions, or extrapolate aggressive premium penetration without validating certified-bean supply.

Benchmark comparison

Market SizeAnonymized sourcePrimary gap driver
USD 14.40 B (2025) Mordor Intelligence-
USD 13.54 B (2023) Global Consultancy AIncludes cocoa butter and powder revenues; older base year; currency fixed at 2023 rates
USD 13.67 B (2024) Regional Consultancy AAssumes uniform farm-gate prices, limited grinder interviews, and no stock reconciliation
USD 14.60 B (2025) Trade Journal BMixes organic and conventional beans yet applies a single price curve; excludes re-exports

Taken together, the comparison shows that Mordor's disciplined scope selection, live price validation, and balanced triangulation provide a dependable decision-making baseline for stakeholders seeking clarity in a highly volatile commodity landscape.

Need A Different Region or Segment?
Customize Now

Key Questions Answered in the Report

How large is the cocoa beans market in 2026 and what CAGR is projected?

The cocoa beans market size reached USD 19.80 billion in 2026 and is forecast to grow at a 6.20% CAGR to USD 26.60 billion by 2031.

What factors are driving cocoa bean demand in Asia?

Rising middle-class incomes, premium chocolate uptake, and expansion of cocoa-based functional beverages are boosting Asia- Pacific demand.

How are sustainability regulations affecting cocoa traders?

The European Union Deforestation Regulation requires farm-level geolocation, raising compliance costs by up to 5% of export value and favoring vertically integrated traders.

Which technological advances are improving cocoa yields?

Disease-resistant seedlings, satellite pest monitoring, and solar-powered fermentation chambers are lifting yields and reducing post-harvest losses in Ghana, Côte d’Ivoire, and Indonesia.

Page last updated on: