Bangladesh Solar Energy Market Size & Share Analysis - Growth Trends And Forecast (2025 - 2030)

Bangladesh Solar Energy Market Trends and Insights

Mandatory Rooftop-Solar Regulation for New Grid Connections

A November 2024 directive requires every new residential, commercial, or industrial grid entrant after July 2025 to install a rooftop PV array scaled to the standing load, instantly creating a guaranteed demand floor. Revised net-metering rules let consumers export 100% of excess generation at avoided-cost tariffs, removing the earlier 70% cap.^{[2]Naimul Karim, “Solar tariffs fall under 5 cents amid new tender rules,” thebusinessstandard.com} SREDA estimates 5 GW of rooftop potential could materialize by 2030, though enforcement protocols under the Bangladesh Energy Regulatory Commission are still in formation. Third-party commissioning certificates are likely to become mandatory to curb quality lapses observed in earlier subsidy-driven rollouts.

Rapid Decline in PV Module Prices & BOS Capex

Average import prices for mono-PERC modules sank to USD 0.10–0.12/W in 2024 from USD 0.15–0.18/W a year earlier, undercut by polysilicon oversupply and aggressive Chinese export strategies. Balance-of-system (BOS) equipment now makes up 40–50% of plant cost, pressuring EPC margins while 5% import duty on modules and 15% VAT on inverters remain in force. Utility-scale EPC prices narrowed to USD 600–800/kW, whereas urban rooftops run USD 1,000–1,200/kW due to higher labor intensity and smaller parcel economies. Local assembly plans announced by LONGi Solar in March 2025 could shave another 8–10% off turnkey pricing once production ramps in 2026.

Export-Buyer Decarbonization Pressure on the RMG Industry

Ready-made garments contribute 85% of exports and face intensifying carbon audits from European and North American brands. H&M’s April 2025 MoU with Pran Group and IFC for Bangladesh’s first solar corporate PPA breaks the monopoly of utility PPAs, offering factories direct access to renewable electrons.^{[3]International Finance Corporation, “Greener Garments Initiative Progress Note,” ifc.org} More than 200 garment facilities have already deployed 7 MW of rooftops under IFC’s Greener Garments Initiative, a threefold rise in 18 months, yet still under 1% of the industry’s 3 GW captive diesel-gas fleet. Access to IDCOL concessional finance is widening, but many subcontractors still lack structured credit pathways.

Rising LNG/Oil Import Bills Inflating Grid Tariffs

LNG procurement now tracks 13–13.5% of Brent, up from 9–10% in 2022, swelling Bangladesh Power Development Board (BPDB) losses to USD 1.1–2.2 billion in fiscal 2024 and forcing quarterly tariff hikes that lifted residential retail prices above BDT 8/kWh. Captive industrial generators exceeding 3 GW are pivoting to solar-plus-storage hybrids to limit exposure to volatile fuel imports. MDB-supported tariff rationalization is expected to erode the price gap between grid supply and on-site PV, strengthening the solar value proposition.

Land Acquisition Bottlenecks for Utility-Scale Parks

Projects above 100 ha require negotiations with hundreds of smallholders under the Land Acquisition Act, inflating timelines by 18–24 months. China Huadian’s 160 MW Maheshkhali plant needed 150 ha and spent months clearing environmental hurdles, while CREC’s 100 MW Jamalpur build involved over 200 landowners.^{[4]Sam Jahan, “Transmission grid lags stall northern solar parks,” thedailystar.net} The new tender regime shifts acquisition risk onto private developers who lack eminent-domain leverage, steering investors toward floating and rooftop options until pre-cleared solar zones are operational post-2026.

Grid Evacuation Lags Prompting Curtailment Risk

Northern divisions record 15–20% solar curtailment during midday peaks for want of substation upgrades. PGCB’s 2025 master plan earmarks USD 1.2 billion for capacity expansion through 2028, but the near-term mismatch leaves completed projects absorbing off-take risk. Joules Power’s 100 MW Chandpur plant alone budgets USD 15 million for a 37 km dedicated line, an unwelcome cost add for developers.

Segment Analysis

By Technology: PV Monopoly Reflects Cost and Land Realities

Solar photovoltaic accounts for the full Bangladesh solar energy market size today and is on track for a 12.4% CAGR to 2030. Mono-PERC imports held an 85% share in 2024, with TOPCon rising to 15% as developers chase >23% efficiencies that mitigate land scarcity. CSP remains absent, burdened by ≥USD 3,000/kW capex and unviable DNI levels. LONGi’s upcoming local factory aims to trim import logistics, helping crystalline PV keep its hold on the Bangladesh solar energy market. Continued dominance of crystalline silicon is supported by bifacial adoption in 20–25% of ground-mount builds, raising yields 10–15% without enlarging footprints. Thin-film and perovskite tandem modules stay relegated to pilot status, pending commercial durability data beyond 2028.

Note: Segment shares of all individual segments available upon report purchase

By Grid Type: On-Grid Expansion Mirrors Electrification Gains

On-grid systems commanded 79.8% of the Bangladesh solar energy market share in 2024 and are forecast to grow 14.8% annually through 2030. National electrification above 95% and net-metering reforms that waive battery requirements give rooftop adopters simple grid export pathways. Off-grid capacity, mainly 6 million solar home systems totaling 360 MW, cycles down as villages connect to the main grid, but solar irrigation pumps and hybrid mini-grids remain viable niches. Competitive tenders for 500 MW of utility plants further anchor the Bangladesh solar energy market to on-grid dominance.

By End-User: Residential Surge Challenges Utility-Scale Dominance

Utility-scale plants still account for 57.1% of the Bangladesh solar energy market size, but mandatory rooftop rules will propel residential installations at a 33.6% CAGR, signaling the fastest trajectory in the forecast window. Average system prices of USD 1,000–1,200/kW and six-to-eight-year paybacks attract urban homeowners, especially in Dhaka and Chattogram. Commercial and industrial buyers leverage PPAs to skirt system-size caps, yet uptake remains under 2% of factories’ 3 GW captive capacity, signaling large headroom for future conversion.

Note: Segment shares of all individual segments available upon report purchase

Geography Analysis

Dhaka Division houses roughly 35–40% of nationwide installations thanks to dense garment clusters in Gazipur and Narayanganj. Chattogram follows with 20–25%, anchored by the 160 MW Maheshkhali coastal plant and rooftop demand in the port city. Northern Rajshahi and Rangpur divisions enjoy higher irradiation but wrestle with transmission congestion that curtails 15–20% of mid-day output. Sylhet’s hilly terrain limits ground-mount opportunities, though a recent MoU envisions a new solar park once land parcels are consolidated. Khulna’s cyclone-prone coast turns to floating arrays over shrimp ponds, leveraging water surfaces that also cool modules. Mymensingh is emerging as a utility-scale hub with MDB-financed projects that piggyback on the national 400 kV backbone. Government plans to spend USD 1.2 billion on grid reinforcement by 2028 are expected to unlock an extra 1 GW across the northern belt. Administrative friction remains the hidden variable, with Dhaka projects securing land in 18 months versus 30 months in Sylhet.