Automotive Automatic Transmission Market Size and Share
Market Overview
| Study Period | 2019 - 2030 |
|---|---|
| Market Size (2025) | USD 106.57 Billion |
| Market Size (2030) | USD 156.70 Billion |
| Growth Rate (2025 - 2030) | 8.02% CAGR |
| Fastest Growing Market | South America |
| Largest Market | Asia-Pacific |
| Market Concentration | Medium |
Major Players
*Disclaimer: Major Players sorted in no particular order Image © Mordor Intelligence. Reuse requires attribution under CC BY 4.0. |
|
Automotive Automatic Transmission Market Analysis by Mordor Intelligence
The Automotive Automatic Transmission market size stands at USD 106.57 billion in 2025 and is forecast to reach USD 156.7 billion by 2030, reflecting an 8.02% CAGR. Tightening greenhouse-gas rules, rapid electrification, and consumer demand for seamless driving continue to recalibrate technology investment priorities across the automotive transmission market. Regulatory milestones—most notably the Environmental Protection Agency’s 50% fleet-average CO₂ reduction target for model years 2027-2032—are steering original-equipment manufacturers toward higher-efficiency automatic, continuously variable, and dual-clutch systems. Electrified drivelines amplify this shift: dedicated hybrid transmissions, multi-speed e-axles, and software-defined control modules are now central to model-year refresh cycles. Competitive advantage hinges on integrating AI-enabled shift strategies and over-the-air update architectures, which lower compliance costs, unlock service revenue, and cushion warranty risk in the automotive transmission market.
Key Report Takeaways
- By transmission type, automatic transmissions led with 46.24% revenue share in 2024; dual-clutch units are projected to expand at a 3.79% CAGR through 2030.
- By fuel type, gasoline remains dominant, but hybrid-electric drivetrains are advancing at a 13.27% CAGR, the fastest among all powertrains.
- By vehicle type, passenger cars accounted for 68.72% of the automotive transmission market share in 2024, while medium and heavy commercial vehicles are growing at a 13.56% CAGR to 2030.
- By component, torque converters captured 31.28% of the automotive transmission market size in 2024 and are tracking an 8.23% CAGR to 2030.
- By geography, South America records the highest regional growth rate at 13.24% CAGR through 2030, propelled by vehicle-tax reforms that lower entry-level prices
Global Automotive Automatic Transmission Market Trends and Insights
Drivers Impact Analysis
| Driver | (~) % Impact on CAGR Forecast | Geographic Relevance | Impact Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tight Global CO₂ Regs | +2.1% | EU and North America (Global Spill-over) | Medium term (2-4 years) |
| Urban Congestion Shift | +1.8% | Asia-Pacific Core, Latin America | Long term (≥4 years) |
| Hybrid/xEV e-transmissions | +2.3% | China and EU Lead | Medium term (2-4 years) |
| OTA-ready TCMs | +0.9% | North America and EU Premium | Short term (≤2 years) |
| Asia-Pacific AT Incentives | +1.1% | Asia-Pacific Hubs | Medium term (2-4 years) |
| AI Shift Scheduling | +0.7% | Global Premium Segment | Long term (≥4 years) |
| Source: Mordor Intelligence | |||
Tight global CO₂ regs
The Environmental Protection Agency now targets an 85 g/mile fleet average for light-duty vehicles by 2032, a mandate that elevates transmission efficiency to compliance linchpin status[1]“Multi-Pollutant Emissions Standards for Model Years 2027-2032,”, Environmental Protection Agency, epa.gov. Corporate Average Fuel Economy increments of 2% per year for cars and light trucks amplify the urgency, while heavy-duty pickups face a steeper 10% annual climb[2].“Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) Standards Summary,”, Federal Register, federalregister.gov Predictive AI shift strategies have already cut fuel use by 10.42% in simulation trials. OEMs now treat transmission upgrades as a quicker, lower-cost path to reducing tailpipe emissions where charging infrastructure is immature, positioning the automotive transmission market as a key compliance lever
Urban Congestion Shift
Stop-and-go traffic in megacities such as Mumbai and Jakarta bolsters demand for automated gearboxes, despite price premiums hovering near USD 6,109 over manual variants in India. Government localization schemes under Make-in-India and ASEAN hybrid tax breaks are narrowing that pricing gap. Younger, tech-savvy buyers now associate automatics with lower fatigue and better real-world mileage, accelerating penetration in the automotive transmission market.
Hybrid/xEV e-transmissions
Toyota’s fifth-generation hybrid transaxle delivers up to 232 hp while supporting FWD and AWD layouts, underscoring the engineering rethink required for electrified drivelines. Magna’s Dedicated Hybrid Drive and ZF’s TraXon 2 Hybrid illustrate how e-transmissions blend simplified gearsets with dual e-motors. AI thermal-management studies show up to 78.42% energy savings under optimal control logic, validating the software-heavy design path.
OTA-ready TCMs
HARMAN’s Smart Delta reduces update file size by 97%, slashing the data-transfer cost per vehicle from USD 133 to USD 13 and avoiding the 2.3-day downtime tied to manual reflashing[3]“Smart Delta OTA Update Technology,”, Harman International, harman.com. Fleets benefit from predictive maintenance patches that reach trucks in minutes, turning the transmission control module into a profit center for the automotive transmission market.
Restraints Impact Analysis
| Restraint | (~) % Impact on CAGR Forecast | Geographic Relevance | Impact Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|
| High cost and Complexity | -1.4% | Global, Price-sensitive Markets | Long term (≥4 years) |
| Chip Shortages | -2.2% | Global Manufacturing Hubs | Short term (≤2 years) |
| Cybersecurity Compliance | -0.8% | EU and UNECE Adopters | Medium term (2-4 years) |
| Warranty Issues | -1.1% | North America, Global GM Markets | Medium term (2-4 years |
| Source: Mordor Intelligence | |||
High cost & complexity
Automatic gearboxes command notable price premiums that retain 61% of India’s buyers in manual segments. Multi-speed 8- and 10-speed designs add electronic valve bodies and complex hydraulics, narrowing the pool of service-ready workshops and heightening total cost of ownership. Localization efforts by suppliers such as Aisin ease import duties but cannot fully erase material cost differentials, restraining adoption in the automotive transmission market
Semiconductor Shortages
Automotive control modules built on mature 28 nm nodes still face fab capacity squeezes as foundries favor AI chips. Quartz mine outages in North Carolina paused critical raw-material flow, while General Motors reported transmission-valve backorders stretching to seven months in 2024[4]“Quartz Shortage Clouds Chip Supply,” Paul Albright, CNBC, cnbc.com. Although supply normalisation is expected in 2025, added buffer inventory elevates working capital, inflating unit prices
Segment Analysis
By Transmission Type: Automatics Dominate Despite Electrification Pressures
Automatic units captured 46.24% of the automotive transmission market share in 2024. Performance-oriented dual-clutch variants, now advancing at 3.79% CAGR, appeal to both premium sedans and emerging-market compacts, reinforcing segment resilience. AI-driven shift logic, gear-jump capability, and lock-up torque converters underpin these gains amid mounting fuel-economy regulations.
E-mobility poses design pivots rather than existential threats. Multi-speed boxes for electric commercial trucks, such as Eaton’s 4-speed, show that efficiency gains justify added mass when payload or gradeability is critical. The automotive transmission market size for automatic platforms will therefore persist as OEMs combine mechanical refinement with software updates that unlock post-sale upgrades.
Note: Segment shares of all individual segments available upon report purchase
By Fuel Type: Gasoline Dominance Challenged by Hybrid Acceleration
Gasoline powertrains held 61.91% revenue in 2024, yet hybrids are surging with a 13.27% CAGR, the highest within the automotive transmission market. Regulators in Thailand and Indonesia cut excise and VAT rates for qualified hybrids, propelling OEMs to bundle dedicated hybrid transmissions into regional line-ups.
Battery-electric vehicles rely mainly on single-speed reducers, but research suggests multi-speed e-drives could extend highway range. Meanwhile, diesel remains entrenched in heavy-duty fleets where torque demands require robust gearsets. The automotive transmission market size for hybrid systems will keep expanding as charging infrastructure matures unevenly across countries.
By Vehicle Type: Commercial Vehicles Drive Transmission Innovation
Passenger cars generated 68.72% of 2024 sales, yet medium and heavy commercial vehicles are set to post a 13.56% CAGR through 2030, outpacing every other category. Fleet operators favour automated manuals and multi-speed e-axles that combine fuel savings with lower driver-training costs.
Allison’s USD 100 million Chennai expansion highlights localisation moves designed to meet surging demand in regional truck markets. Serviceability, torque density, and predictive maintenance features distinguish commercial offerings, ensuring durable share uplift for this segment in the automotive transmission market.
Note: Segment shares of all individual segments available upon report purchase
By Component: Torque Converters Lead Value Chain Transformation
Torque converters accounted for 31.28% of 2024 revenue. Upgrades such as lock-up clutches, integrated starter-generators, and compact stators deliver a smoother launch feel and lower slip losses, sustaining an 8.23% CAGR. Planetary gearsets, hydraulic controls, and mechatronic assemblies round out the high-value mix as suppliers pursue integrated module designs.
Fluid chemistry is evolving in tandem. Next-generation automatic transmission fluids address copper compatibility, lower conductivity, and higher thermal loads required in electrified drivelines. These innovations reinforce component-level growth across the automotive transmission market.
Geography Analysis
Asia-Pacific remains the largest contributor to the automotive transmission market, buoyed by China’s scale and India’s localisation push under the Make-in-India program. ZF targets raising its regional sales share to 30% by 2030, supported by over 50 plants and technical centres in China [5]"ZF Double Down China for Next Generation Mobility", ZF Friedrichshafen AG, zf.com.
South America posts the fastest growth at 13.24% CAGR through 2030. Argentina’s tax reform slashed mid-range vehicle prices by up to 20%, improving affordability and spurring automatic uptake. Colombia’s eight assembly plants and Brazil’s established supply base underscore the region’s widening manufacturing footprint, even as currency volatility and political risk temper capital-spending decisions.
North America and Europe display stable volumes but high technology churn. EPA greenhouse-gas targets and UNECE R155 cybersecurity rules elevate demand for next-generation control modules and software-friendly hardware, keeping the automotive transmission market focused on premium upgrades. The Middle East and Africa offer long-run upside linked to urbanisation and fleet modernisation, though low current motorisation levels delay near-term scale.
Competitive Landscape
The automotive transmission market is moderately concentrated, with legacy suppliers investing heavily to defend their share against electrification headwinds. ZF Friedrichshafen posted EUR 46.6 billion in 2023 sales and ploughed EUR 3.5 billion into R&D. Aisin leverages Toyota’s hybrid programs to win ASEAN contracts. BorgWarner lifted e-product revenue 47% year-on-year and locked in dual-clutch deals with Chinese automakers, demonstrating diversified portfolio strength.
Software-defined drivetrains redraw competitive boundaries. HARMAN’s 97% delta-update compression exemplifies how tech firms capture lifecycle revenue and help OEMs offset shrinking hardware margins. Patent filings such as GM’s predictive torque management system show incumbents entering the software arena to safeguard intellectual property. Future winners will marry mechanical pedigree with agile software roadmaps, ensuring the automotive transmission market evolves toward connected, self-optimising systems.
Strategic realignments continue. ZF’s USD 500 million outlay in South Carolina adds PHEV transmission capacity for North American and export models. Allison doubles output in Chennai to serve rising regional truck demand, and Ricardo’s modular Element range offers OEMs cost-effective electrified options. Partnerships between tier-one suppliers and Silicon Valley firms are accelerating, as algorithmic shift optimisation and cloud diagnostics become core differentiators.
Automotive Automatic Transmission Industry Leaders
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Aisin Seiki Co., Ltd.
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ZF Friedrichshafen AG
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JATCO Ltd.
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Hyundai Transys
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BorgWarner Inc.
- *Disclaimer: Major Players sorted in no particular order
Recent Industry Developments
- May 2025: ZF Friedrichshafen committed USD 500 million to expand its Gray Court, South Carolina plant for 8HP Gen4 PHEV transmissions, creating 400 jobs and enabling all-electric ranges over 75 miles.
- February 2025: Allison Transmission unveiled a USD 100 million expansion of its Chennai factory to double capacity for fully automatic truck transmissions.
- October 2024: Magna International unveiled its Dual Clutch Transmission Eco (DCT Eco). The transmission system meets the requirements of European original equipment manufacturers to support the transition from internal combustion engines to hybrid powertrains.
Global Automotive Automatic Transmission Market Report Scope
The automotive automatic transmission system market has been segmented by type, fuel type, vehicle type, and geography. The report offers market size and forecast for Automotive Automatic Transmission Market in Value (USD billion) for all the abovementioned segments.
The market is segmented by type: Automatic Transmission/Torque Converter, Automated Manual Transmission, Continuously Variable Transmission, and Dual Clutch Transmission.
By fuel type, the market is segmented as Gasoline, Diesel, and Hybrid
By vehicle type, the market is segmented as passenger cars, light commercial vehicles, and heavy commercial vehicles.
By geography, the market is segmented as North America, Europe, Asia-Pacific, South America, and Middle-East and Africa.
| Automatic (AT)/Torque-Converter |
| Automated Manual (AMT) |
| Continuously Variable (CVT) |
| Dual-Clutch (DCT) |
| Gasoline |
| Diesel |
| Hybrid-Electric |
| Battery-Electric (single-speed e-drive) |
| Passenger Cars |
| Light Commercial Vehicles |
| Medium and Heavy Commercial Vehicles |
| Torque Converter |
| Planetary Gear-set |
| Hydraulic and Mechatronic Controls |
| Transmission Fluid |
| North America | United States |
| Canada | |
| Rest of North America | |
| Europe | Germany |
| United Kingdom | |
| France | |
| Italy | |
| Russia | |
| Rest of Europe | |
| Asia-Pacific | China |
| Japan | |
| India | |
| South Korea | |
| Rest of Asia-Pacific | |
| South America | Brazil |
| Argentina | |
| Rest of South America | |
| Middle East and Africa | United Arab Emirates |
| Saudi Arabia | |
| South Africa | |
| Rest of Middle East and Africa |
| By Transmission Type | Automatic (AT)/Torque-Converter | |
| Automated Manual (AMT) | ||
| Continuously Variable (CVT) | ||
| Dual-Clutch (DCT) | ||
| By Fuel Type | Gasoline | |
| Diesel | ||
| Hybrid-Electric | ||
| Battery-Electric (single-speed e-drive) | ||
| By Vehicle Type | Passenger Cars | |
| Light Commercial Vehicles | ||
| Medium and Heavy Commercial Vehicles | ||
| By Component | Torque Converter | |
| Planetary Gear-set | ||
| Hydraulic and Mechatronic Controls | ||
| Transmission Fluid | ||
| By Geography | North America | United States |
| Canada | ||
| Rest of North America | ||
| Europe | Germany | |
| United Kingdom | ||
| France | ||
| Italy | ||
| Russia | ||
| Rest of Europe | ||
| Asia-Pacific | China | |
| Japan | ||
| India | ||
| South Korea | ||
| Rest of Asia-Pacific | ||
| South America | Brazil | |
| Argentina | ||
| Rest of South America | ||
| Middle East and Africa | United Arab Emirates | |
| Saudi Arabia | ||
| South Africa | ||
| Rest of Middle East and Africa | ||
Key Questions Answered in the Report
What is the current size of the automotive transmission market?
The market is worth USD 106.57 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 156.7 billion by 2030.
Which transmission type leads global sales?
Automatic transmissions lead with 46.24% of 2024 revenue, reflecting widespread use in both passenger cars and light trucks.
Which fuel segment is growing fastest within the automotive transmission market?
Hybrid-electric vehicles are advancing at a 13.27% CAGR through 2030, outpacing gasoline and diesel applications.
Why are over-the-air updates important for transmissions?
OTA-capable control modules reduce service downtime, cut data-transfer costs by as much as 97%, and open recurring software-revenue streams.
How will tighter CO₂ rules affect transmission design?
Regulations calling for a 50% fleet-average emission cut by 2032 are accelerating adoption of high-efficiency automatics, dual-clutch systems, and dedicated hybrid transmissions.
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