Algeria Power Market Size & Share Analysis - Growth Trends And Forecast (2025 - 2030)

Algeria Power Market Trends and Insights

Rapid Electricity-Demand Growth Propels Capacity Additions

Generation reached 95 TWh in 2024, and peak demand climbed to 19.1 GW, driven by a population of 45.9 million and industrial projects, such as the 200 MW Tindouf solar plant dedicated to the Gara Djebilet iron-ore complex.^{(1) APS, “La centrale solaire de Tindouf avancera le projet Gara Djebilet,” aps.dz}Sonelgaz connected 10,000 farms in 2025, bringing rural electrification links since 2020 to 78,000 and adding distributed load that complicates forecasting.^{(2)Radio Algérienne, “Sonelgaz renforce l’électrification rurale,” radioalgerienne.dz} Subsidized tariffs of USD 0.03 per kWh, compared with production costs of USD 0.08–0.10 per kWh, keep consumption price-insensitive and widen Sonelgaz’s subsidy burden above USD 8 billion each year. The mismatch between load growth and plant additions favors quick-install gas turbines and modular solar over long-lead nuclear or coal alternatives.

Government 2030 Renewables Target Anchors Investment Pipeline

The 15 GW mandate has already queued 6.2 GW of solar capacity, equal to 40% of the objective, signaling execution urgency.^{(3)El Watan, “Abadla 80 MW prend forme,” elwatan.com} Chinese firms secured around 60% of the first 3 GW tranche at bid prices between €0.54 and €0.81 per watt, setting a cost floor for future rounds. The 80 MW Abadla plant, started in March 2025, deploys automated cleaning and real-time monitoring to preserve performance in desert conditions. A 1,000 MW wind program remains under feasibility review, but solar’s faster timelines mean photovoltaic additions will dominate through mid-decade. Ministry consolidation in late 2024 has not slowed tender momentum.

Natural-gas reserves provide transition flexibility

Proven reserves of 159 Tcf assure supply security and export earnings, enabling Algeria to deploy gas as a balancing fuel during variable-renewable scale-up. Production is targeted to reach 200 bcm by 2030, supported by new field developments such as Timimoun and Ahnet-Gourara. Flexible CCGT units stabilize frequency and voltage when high-irradiance PV drops unexpectedly, thus smoothing renewable integration while preserving revenue streams from pipeline exports to Spain and Italy.

National Grid-Expansion Master Plan Enables Renewable Integration

Sonelgaz operates 35,537 km of transmission and 416,516 km of distribution lines, but must add 30,000 km of high-voltage routes and more than 300 bulk substations by 2030 to evacuate southern solar output. The GE-Sonelgaz venture GEAT will manufacture 134 high-voltage and extra-high-voltage substations locally by 2028, shrinking import requirements and shortening lead times. Feasibility work on high-voltage direct-current corridors, including the 2 GW Medlink interconnector to Tunisia and Italy, underpins future export ambitions. The 950 km Béchar–Tindouf–Gara Djebilet mining railway demands parallel transmission to power rail operations and adjacent mines, creating co-investment openings for grid developers.

Financing Constraints Slow Project Execution

Weighted-average cost of capital for renewables in emerging markets ranges from 3.6% to 7.2% in real terms, and Algeria sits near the upper end because of political and payment-assurance risk. The January 2025 re-tender of 520 MW, 120 MW Kenadsa, 150 MW Touggourt, 250 MW Tamacine, after the Fimer-Cosider consortium failed to secure debt, underscores the gap between low bids and bankable structures. Competitive procurement rules trigger tenders above 12 million dinars (USD 83,000), yet offtaker guarantees remain limited, deterring commercial banks absent sovereign wraps. Sonelgaz’s subsidy-driven losses curb its balance-sheet capacity, restricting letters of credit for independent power producers. The National Fund for Energy Management, financed by a USD 0.0002 per-kWh levy on industrial sales, produces insufficient cash flow to anchor multibillion-dollar programs, leaving Chinese export credit and multilateral soft loans as key funding sources.

Grid-Flexibility Limits Trigger Renewable Curtailment

The network was built for centralized thermal dispatch, and midday solar surpluses now force curtailment without large-scale storage or pumped hydro. The 200 MW Tindouf plant includes the country’s first utility-scale battery, yet the 3.2 GW 2025 solar round lacks mandatory co-located storage, elevating curtailment risk as penetration rises. Transient-stability modeling in Kaberten shows solar improves contingency response when paired with reactive-power support, but highlights the need for FACTS devices and strict grid-code enforcement. Algeria has not yet created an ancillary-services market, leaving frequency regulation to ageing steam units with low ramp rates. IRENA’s 2024 outlook stresses that tripling global renewables by 2030 will demand USD 720 billion a year in grids and flexibility; Algeria will need a proportionate multi-billion allocation to avoid stranding assets.

Segment Analysis

By Power Source: Thermal Dominance Persists Amid Renewable Surge

Thermal capacity accounted for 97.5% of installations in 2024, anchored by gas-fired combined-cycle and open-cycle plants, yet renewables are forecast to grow at a 47.9% CAGR, capturing the bulk of net additions through 2030. The Algerian power market size for thermal generation stood at 28.15 GW in 2024 and is expected to edge higher as flexible aeroderivative units replace inefficient steam turbines. Abundant domestic gas, backed by the USD 2.3 billion Hassi R’Mel compression project, secures feedstock and enables thermal units to balance variable solar, mitigating dispatch risk during evening ramps. Nuclear remains absent, and limited hydro potential keeps zero-carbon baseload options narrow, intensifying reliance on gas until battery costs fall. Solar photovoltaic commands more than 6 GW of the procurement pipeline, positioning it to surpass 4 GW online by 2028 and to lead installed renewable capacity by the end of the decade.

Wind’s initial 1 GW program targets 10 sites under World Bank guidance, but lower capacity factors and lengthier permitting defer utility-scale build-out to the late 2020s. Hydro, geothermal, biomass, and tidal resources remain negligible due to resource limits, water scarcity, or early-stage technology readiness. The 200 MW Tindouf solar-plus-storage project exemplifies hybrid configurations that relieve grid bottlenecks and supply captive industrial loads. LONGi’s plan to localize cell-to-module manufacturing could narrow equipment costs and boost Algeria’s competitiveness as a regional supplier. Collectively, these trends keep thermal in a dispatchable leadership role while renewables seize growth leadership.

Note: Segment shares of all individual segments available upon report purchase

By End User: Utilities Anchor Demand, C&I Accelerates

Utilities owned 63.8% of installed capacity in 2024, equal to 25,341 MW, which generated 89,996 GWh in 2023.^{(4)Sonelgaz, “Statistiques de production 2023,” sonelgaz.dz}The Algerian power market share for utilities will inch down as industrial self-generation climbs, though the segment retains scale through transmission and distribution monopolies. C&I installations are poised for a 9.5% CAGR through 2030, spurred by reliability gaps and tariff subsidies that make on-site solar payback attractive despite soft PPA frameworks. Desalination facilities, each producing 300,000 m³ per day and drawing 4.15 kWh per m³, target 30% solar sourcing, opening a 600 MW renewable opportunity by 2030. The residential share benefits from 99.4% electrification and ongoing farm-connection programs that added 10,000 links in 2025 alone.

Subsidized pricing suppresses demand-side management, yet peak-demand spikes drive factories to install batteries and backup generators to avoid costly outages. The 200 MW Tindouf captive-power model demonstrates how mining ventures can bypass grid constraints and secure competitively priced electricity in remote areas. Law 22-18’s foreign-ownership liberalization permits international developers to sell directly to industrial users, although creditworthiness and regulatory clarity remain hurdles. Sonelgaz earned €268 million in export revenue in 2024 by selling surplus power to Tunisia and Morocco, pointing toward expanded regional trade as interconnections scale.

Note: Segment shares of all individual segments available upon report purchase

Geography Analysis

Northern coastal provinces consume most electricity because of dense populations and industry, while the southern desert belt hosts superior solar irradiance exceeding 3,500 sun hours annually. The March 2025 3.2 GW solar round was split among 12 provinces to minimize transmission congestion and support regional stability. Béchar’s 80 MW Abadla plant will connect through a 30/60 kV substation and deploy robotic cleaning to combat dust, showcasing site-specific design for desert environments. The 200 MW Tindouf plant, 80 km from Gara Djebilet, integrates storage to power mining and surrounding communities, illustrating how renewables unlock remote resource corridors.

Coastal Boumerdès houses the 1,200 MW Ras Djinet combined-cycle plant and two of the five new desalination projects, piling load onto the gas-rich coastline. Algeria’s August 2024 cooperation pact with Italy, paired with the proposed Medlink 2 GW submarine cable, positions northern provinces as future export gateways pending grid upgrades. The 950 km Béchar–Tindouf–Gara Djebilet railway corridor will require synchronous transmission rollout, prompting joint infrastructure opportunities. Sonelgaz’s 30,000 km high-voltage expansion and 70,000 km distribution extension plan, valued at USD 10–15 billion, hinges on private participation to meet 2030 timelines.

Southern Tamanrasset and Adrar anchor green-hydrogen pilot zones that target 30–40 TWh a year by 2040, yet water scarcity forces seawater desalination and long pipelines, adding cost and complexity. Italian developer Zhero’s €60 million capital raise in April 2024 for solar-hydrogen ventures underscores early foreign appetite for the region’s export potential. Existing 400 MW links to Tunisia and Morocco, and the mooted Italy cable, provide monetization routes for surplus generation once transmission bottlenecks ease.