VIETNAM ELECTRIC VEHICLE MARKET SIZE & SHARE ANALYSIS - GROWTH TRENDS & FORECASTS (2025 - 2030)

Vietnam Electric Vehicle Market Trends and Insights

Domestic Manufacturing Scale-up

VinFast aims for 80% domestic content by 2026, with a goal to produce 500,000 vehicles by 2027 and reach 1 million vehicles annually by 2030, a scale that compresses component costs and mitigates exchange-rate exposure. Complementary commitments from Chery and Geely reinforce Vietnam’s standing as a regional assembly hub, yet sophisticated electronics and battery management systems remain import-reliant. Guaranteed offtake contracts from VinFast give local suppliers demand visibility, prompting new capital investment that accelerates localisation.

Government Incentives and Tax Rebates

The incentive package waives registration fees for EVs until February 2027 and keeps import duties at zero on ASEAN-built cars, trimming purchase prices by more than VND 100 million per unit. Preferential charging tariffs of 2,204 VND/kWh further tilt the total cost of ownership in favor of electric models. Provincial add-ons, such as Ho Chi Minh City’s proposed tax holidays and soft loans for its 400,000-unit motorcycle conversion program, underscore multi-tier policy coordination^{[2]"HCMC wants only electric motorbikes for ride-hailing by 2030", VnExpress, e.vnexpress.net}. Continuity beyond 2027 depends on reaching cost parity, exposing the market to fiscal-policy rollover risk.

Rising Environmental Awareness and Net-zero Targets

Vietnam’s 2050 net-zero pledge instituted binding milestones: all new urban buses must be green by 2025 and 50% of urban vehicles electric by 2030, creating regulatory demand that bypasses discretionary consumer choice. Worsening air-quality indices in Ho Chi Minh City and Hanoi galvanize public opinion, particularly among 25-44-year-olds who exhibit higher EV preference. Further, fuel-import savings projections by 2050 offer fiscal validation for the aggressive roadmap.

Electric Two-wheeler Ecosystem Spill-over

Surging sales of electric motorcycles are expanding charging-port density to over 150,000 nationwide, ports that service both bikes and cars. The ease of battery-swap familiarity and positive user experience shorten four-wheeler adoption cycles. Ho Chi Minh City’s ride-hailing initiative, converting 400,000 motorcycles by 2026, creates a living advertisement for electric mobility, shrinking skepticism and accelerating cross-segment diffusion.

Sparse Public Charging Infrastructure

Although dense in tier-one cities, the network thins rapidly in rural corridors, restricting inter-city travel and segment growth beyond sub-200 km models. V-Green has earmarked USD 404 million to deploy additional stations, yet lead times mean near-term bottlenecks persist. Grid stress surfaces during high-demand months, prompting government directives that prioritize power supply resilience.

High Up-front Vehicle Cost vs Average Income

VinFast’s VF3, priced at USD 9,200, remains aspirational for large swathes of the population despite fee waivers and battery-subscription schemes. The affordability gap concentrates adoption among upper-middle-income urbanites, limiting economies of scale. Wider domestic parts localisation and LFP battery dominance are expected to narrow the gap, but meaningful mass-market access still hinges on sustained subsidy frameworks or breakthrough cost declines.

Segment Analysis

By Vehicle Type: Commercial Fleets Drive Electrification

Passenger cars contributed 68.42% of overall revenue in 2024, while buses registered the quickest expansion at a 34.17% CAGR. The Vietnam electric vehicle market size for buses is projected to double between 2025 and 2028 as provincial mandates trigger large tender volumes. Private car buyers account for much of today’s stock, yet commercial fleets tip the growth curve; Ho Chi Minh City’s 37-route electric bus roll-out and Hanoi’s 100% core-area bus electrification agenda inject predictable bulk demand. 

Intense fleet utilisation magnifies total-cost benefits, making commercial buyers early adopters of newer battery chemistries and fast-charging solutions. Conversely, two-wheelers retain vitality through rural-urban commuter demand, indirectly bolstering charging-hub economics that benefit four-wheeler deployment. Over the forecast horizon, passenger-car share will erode modestly even as volumes rise, because buses and vans gain policy-driven ground in public transit and last-mile logistics.

Note: Segment shares of all individual segments available upon report purchase

By Propulsion: Battery Electric Dominance

Battery electric vehicles captured 71.36% of the Vietnam electric vehicle market share in 2024, eclipsing hybrid and plug-in alternatives. That dominance deepens as BEV volumes compound at 28.53% CAGR, propelled by a government strategy that leapfrogs transitional powertrains. Hybrids hold niche appeal for peri-urban commuters needing range flexibility, but a lack of tax parity with BEVs caps growth. Fuel-cell vehicles remain experimental due to infrastructure voids.

VinFast’s single-minded BEV product map shapes consumer perception, while nationwide charging subsidies reinforce the pure-electric narrative. Foreign OEMs may inject plug-in variants to hedge range anxiety, yet policy signals keep BEVs on the mainstream trajectory. In tandem, battery advancements shorten charging times, shaving practical limitations that once justified hybrid premiums. Altogether, the Vietnam electric vehicle industry stays on a direct-to-BEV path, avoiding the incremental hybrid detour seen in developed markets.

By Driving Range: Urban-Optimised Solutions Lead

Sub-200 km models occupied 54.28% of 2024 shipments because urban mobility dominates daily travel. Nonetheless, the long-range (over 400 km) sub-segment outpaces all peers at 30.26% CAGR, its gains contingent on highway-corridor charger build-out. 

CATL’s announced 1,500 km pack with five-minute top-ups, illustrates technological headroom, but cost parity remains the swing factor. Mainstream buyers will continue opting for practical urban ranges while using public transport or rental alternatives for longer journeys. Over time, rising living standards and inter-city business travel will feed demand for mid- and long-range variants, diversifying OEM line-ups.

By Battery Type: LFP Technology Leads Cost Optimisation

LFP chemistry governed 65.14% sales in 2024 and will retain the majority share owing to raw-material cost advantages and benign thermal properties. In value models, safety credentials and lifecycle longevity outshine modest energy-density trade-offs. Solid-state batteries, currently negligible, are forecast to grow 38.14% CAGR as VinFast and technology partner ProLogium finalise pilot production lines. 

NMC and NCA chemistries linger in high-performance and export-oriented trims, but relative cost pressure makes them less viable domestically. Government recycling guidelines in progress will also influence chemistry choice by capping end-of-life liabilities, favouring solutions with established reuse channels. Battery diversification thus follows a cost-to-performance spectrum where LFP remains the mass-volume backbone.

Note: Segment shares of all individual segments available upon report purchase

By End User: Private Ownership Drives Market Growth

Private buyers delivered 78.29% of the 2024 volume, underscoring Vietnam’s personal-mobility culture. Yet commercial fleet orders post a compelling 32.21% CAGR as service operators chase fuel and maintenance savings. Government and public transport maintain steady growth through policy mandates requiring electric bus transitions across provincial networks. 

Household demand benefits from the well-trodden path of motorcycle electrification: familiarity with home charging and battery leases lowers psychological barriers. Government fleet procurement, though smaller, wields outsized signalling power, ensuring model diversity via bulk tenders. Over the outlook period, a gradually narrowing price gap and greater financing options will keep private buyers atop volume rankings even as fleet adoption accelerates.

Geography Analysis

Southern Vietnam’s dominates with 45.76% Vietnam electric vehicle market share due to springs from economic heft and proactive city governance. The 37-route electric bus launch in July 2025 alone adds 256 zero-emission buses and signals a multi-modal commitment. High urban density maximises fleet utilisation, providing strong payback periods even at today’s tariff levels. Power-supply challenges persist during summer peaks, prompting coordinated generation and demand-response plans to safeguard reliability.

Northern Vietnam benefits from geographic proximity to component supply chains and concerted efforts to foster an EV-industry cluster allowing to grow at 29.36% CAGR by 2030. Factory investments by VinFast and foreign OEMs scale the region’s output while seeding localised tier-2 supplier networks. Hanoi’s target of 100% electric buses in central districts by 2030 generates predictable order books, stimulating ancillary investments in depots and fast-charging hubs. Yet cold-weather battery-range degradation and peak-load pressures require technology adaptations and grid reinforcement.

Central Vietnam leverages its tourism orientation to experiment with niche deployments such as coastal shuttle fleets and airport circulators. Policy innovations include interest-rate subsidies for operators purchasing electric coaches servicing heritage sites. While volumes remain modest, the region acts as a proving ground for renewable-energy-linked charging clusters that integrate solar and wind capacity, potentially exporting this template nationwide.