Market Overview
| Study Period | 2019 - 2031 |
|---|---|
| Forecast Data Period | 2026 - 2031 |
| Base Year Market Size (2025) | USD 174.31 Billion |
| Market Size (2026) | USD 185.13 Billion |
| Market Size (2031) | USD 250.22 Billion |
| Growth Rate (2026 - 2031) | 6.21 % |
| Market Concentration | High |
Major Players *Disclaimer: Major Players sorted in no particular order Image © Mordor Intelligence. Reuse requires attribution under CC BY 4.0. | |
United States Commercial Vehicles Market Analysis by Mordor Intelligence
The United States commercial vehicle market size was valued at USD 174.31 billion in 2025 and is expected to increase from USD 185.13 billion in 2026 to reach USD 250.22 billion by 2031, growing at a CAGR of 6.21% over 2026-2031. A mix of federal greenhouse-gas standards, e-commerce logistics redesign, and accelerating battery-electric adoption is reshaping model portfolios across weight classes. Light commercial vans dominate urban duty cycles as parcel operators move to zero-emission fleets. Diesel retains the largest share of propulsion today but faces higher compliance costs under forthcoming NOx limits, prompting fleets to weigh battery-electric total cost of ownership parity. In parallel, state-level mandates in California and the Northeast accelerate replacement cycles, while public charging corridors funded under the federal NEVI program lower range anxiety barriers for regional haul operators[1].
Key Report Takeaways
- By vehicle type, light commercial vans led with 31.58% of the United States commercial vehicle market share in 2025, and are also projected to post the fastest 7.61% CAGR through 2031.
- By propulsion type, internal combustion engine (diesel) held 62.76% of 2025 revenue, whereas hybrid and electric vehicles (BEVs) are set to record the highest forecasted CAGR of 16.24% over 2026-2031.
- By gross vehicle weight rating, Class 3 trucks captured 29.86% of 2025 revenue, and the same class is set to expand at a 10.35% CAGR, the quickest among all weight bands.
- By end-use industry, logistics and e-commerce accounted for 35.13% of 2025 revenue and are poised to grow at a 9.27% CAGR during the forecast period.
Note: Market size and forecast figures in this report are generated using Mordor Intelligence’s proprietary estimation framework, updated with the latest available data and insights as of January 2026.
United States Commercial Vehicles Market Trends and Insights
Drivers Impact Analysis*
| Driver | (~) % Impact on CAGR Forecast | Geographic Relevance | Impact Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Federal GHG Phase-3 and NOx Standards | +1.8% | Nationwide, with early compliance in California, Oregon, Washington | Medium term (2-4 years) |
| E-Commerce Surge | +1.5% | Urban corridors in Texas, California, Florida, New York, Illinois | Short term (≤ 2 years) |
| NEVI Funding for Charging and Fueling Corridors | +1.2% | Interstate highways across all states, priority in rural Midwest and Southeast | Long term (≥ 4 years) |
| Corporate ESG Targets | +0.9% | Corporate headquarters regions in California, New York, Massachusetts, Washington | Medium term (2-4 years) |
| Second-Life Battery Value | +0.6% | California, Texas, New York with grid-storage incentives | Long term (≥ 4 years) |
| Autonomous-Ready Chassis Platforms | +0.4% | Technology hubs in California, Arizona, Texas testing zones | Long term (≥ 4 years) |
| Source: Mordor Intelligence | |||
Federal GHG Phase-3 and NOx Standards Accelerate Fleet Turnover
The Environmental Protection Agency finalized heavy-duty greenhouse-gas limits covering model years 2027-2032, pushing OEMs toward zero-emission drivelines. Manufacturers have responded by committing fresh capital to electric assembly capacity and by refreshing product roadmaps on accelerated timelines. Fleets with older vehicles now face a cost comparison between expensive diesel after-treatment retrofits and battery-electric models that qualify for federal purchase incentives. California's Advanced Clean Fleets rule was withdrawn in January 2025, though state fleet procurement policy and the Advanced Clean Trucks sales mandate continue to pull public and high-priority fleets toward zero-emission purchases [2]. The combined federal-state policy stack is shortening replacement cycles and boosting order books for zero-emission chassis.
E-Commerce Surge Raising Last-Mile Light-CV Demand
United States online retail exceeded USD 1 trillion in 2025, intensifying parcel volumes that favor nimble, battery-electric vans. Amazon, FedEx, and UPS have each unveiled multiyear electrification roadmaps, locking in thousands of van orders and stimulating a secondary ecosystem of charging-depot integrators. Same-day delivery guarantees in dense metros reinforce the need for vehicles that recharge quickly during planned dwell times. As delivery windows shrink, operators increasingly value the instant torque and regenerative-brake wear savings inherent to electric drivetrains. The resulting demand is cascading into Tier-1 supplier tooling for purpose-built light-commercial platforms.
USD 7.5 Billion NEVI Funding for Nationwide Charging and Fueling Corridors
The NEVI program directs federal dollars to install fast chargers every 50 miles along alternative fuel corridors. States such as Texas and Ohio have already issued construction contracts, and the first tranche of sites became operational in 2025[3]. Public infrastructure capable of serving medium-duty trucks eases fleet concerns over range limitations outside coastal hubs, encouraging regional-haul electrification. In turn, OEMs see clearer revenue upside for Class 3-5 battery-electric trucks, justifying higher production volumes and lower unit costs. Over the long term, this backbone is expected to lift adoption beyond early-adopter states into the Midwest and Southeast.
Corporate ESG Targets Pushing Zero-Emission Fleet Procurement
Public companies bound by science-based targets are embedding zero-emission purchasing clauses into fleet contracts to meet Scope 1 and 3 emission goals. Retailers and food-and-beverage majors have publicized multi-thousand-unit electric truck orders, translating investor climate expectations into real truck demand. Shareholder pressure effectively prices carbon risk into capital-allocation decisions, nudging even cost-sensitive operators toward electrification. The reputational upside associated with branded electric delivery vehicles amplifies this dynamic, particularly in customer-facing sectors.
Restraints Impact Analysis*
| Restraint | (~) % Impact on CAGR Forecast | Geographic Relevance | Impact Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Grid-Upgrade Delays | -0.7% | Midwest and Southeast industrial corridors, rural distribution centers | Short term (≤ 2 years) |
| Inflationary Pressure | -0.5% | Nationwide, affecting OEM battery procurement | Medium term (2-4 years) |
| Certified EV-CV Technician Shortage | -0.3% | Rural and exurban service networks across all states | Medium term (2-4 years) |
| Tight Freight Rates | -0.2% | Long-haul trucking operators in Midwest and Southeast | Short term (≤ 2 years) |
| Source: Mordor Intelligence | |||
Grid-Upgrade Delays at Warehouse Depots
Utilities in several Midwestern and Southeastern states report double-digit-month interconnection queues for high-capacity depot chargers. Fleets planning to deploy dozens of electric trucks often discover that nearby substations lack headroom, necessitating costly upgrades that push out project timelines. Some operators, therefore, renew diesel leases until power-delivery schedules align with fleet replacement cycles. The lag risks creating uneven geographic adoption, with coastal and hydro-powered regions moving faster toward electrification than interior states.
Inflationary Pressure on Lithium-Iron-Phosphate Cathode Minerals
Lithium carbonate experienced notable price volatility in 2025, lifting battery pack costs for OEMs reliant on iron-phosphate chemistries. Contract renegotiations and production rescheduling became common as suppliers rationed cell allocations. While domestic mining projects are coming online, short-to-medium-term supply tightness keeps raw-material costs elevated. Higher pack prices narrow or erase total-cost-of-ownership advantages for certain routes, particularly where diesel fuel is inexpensive. The squeeze is most acute for fixed-price fleet contracts signed before the commodity rally.
*Our forecasts treat driver/restraint impacts as directional, not additive. The impact forecasts reflect baseline growth, mix effects, and variable interactions.
Segment Analysis
By Vehicle Type: Vans Lead Urban Electrification
Light commercial vans accounted for 31.58% of 2025 revenue, the largest share in the United States commercial vehicle market. Their compact design makes them ideal for navigating urban streets, while their frequent stops maximize the benefits of regenerative braking. This segment is also projected to grow at the fastest rate, with a CAGR of 7.61%, as parcel carriers increasingly focus on decarbonizing their last-mile delivery fleets to meet sustainability goals and regulatory requirements. OEMs are actively expanding their offerings by introducing various wheelbase and roof-height options to address a broader range of cargo applications.
Additionally, e-commerce-focused body conversions now incorporate modular shelving and advanced telematics systems, which help optimize route density and improve operational efficiency. Fleet operators are particularly drawn to the reduced maintenance downtime offered by electric drivetrains compared to traditional diesel engines, which translates to lower operational costs and increased vehicle availability. At the same time, public incentives for depot chargers are easing the financial burden of transitioning to electric fleets, especially for small and medium enterprises, making the shift more accessible and practical for a wider range of businesses.
By Propulsion Type: EVs Disrupt ICE Dominance
ICE propulsion retained 62.76% of 2025 revenue, the highest within the propulsion mix. Meanwhile, hybrid and electric vehicles are poised to achieve the fastest growth rate, with a 16.24% CAGR, driven by tightening emissions regulations that are making diesel maintenance increasingly expensive. This shift highlights the growing pressure on traditional propulsion systems to adapt to evolving environmental standards. Fleet decisions are becoming more reliant on predictable duty cycles and fluctuating electricity tariffs. For routes spanning urban and regional areas under 250 miles, the total cost of ownership for battery-electric vehicles is nearing parity with diesel, especially when incentives are factored in.
OEMs are ramping up in-house battery sourcing, aiming to mitigate commodity risks and accelerate development timelines. By securing their supply chains, OEMs are better positioned to meet the growing demand for electric vehicles while maintaining competitive pricing. However, the quest for infrastructure interoperability is proving challenging, with the industry still divided over connector standards, namely CCS and NACS. This lack of standardization continues to create uncertainty for fleet operators, underscoring the need for collaborative efforts to streamline charging solutions and enhance adoption rates.
By Gross Vehicle Weight Rating: Class 3 Captures Electrification Momentum
Class 3 trucks held 29.86% of 2025 revenue, the highest across weight classes. This segment is also projected to grow at the fastest rate of 10.35% CAGR, buoyed by advancements in battery energy density, allowing for competitive payloads while adhering to bridge-formula limits. Regulators at both state and federal levels are prioritizing medium-duty categories for early electrification. This focus stems from the concentration of emissions in urban deliveries, especially in densely populated areas.
To address buyer concerns over technology risks, lease-finance products with residual-value guarantees have been introduced, providing financial flexibility and reducing perceived risks. Additionally, the modularity of components allows for cost-sharing across adjacent Class 4 platforms, making the transition to Class 3 electrification more economically viable. These factors collectively position Class 3 trucks as a cornerstone in the broader electrification strategy.
By End-Use Industry: Logistics Drives Electrification
Logistics and e-commerce commanded 35.13% of 2025 revenue, the largest share among end uses. This segment is set to grow at the fastest pace, with a projected CAGR of 9.27% through 2031, driven by consistent parcel-volume growth and corporate commitments to emission reductions. Third-party logistics companies are increasingly adopting electric vehicles, using them as key differentiators in sustainability-focused tenders. Urban regulations, such as noise ordinances and low-emission zones, further incentivize this shift, favoring silent trucks with zero tailpipe emissions.
The integration of advanced platform data is also transforming operations. For instance, vehicle state-of-charge metrics now feed directly into warehouse management systems, enabling tighter dock scheduling and reducing downtime. Furthermore, insurance companies are beginning to recognize the benefits of electric fleets, offering reduced premiums for vehicles equipped with advanced driver-assistance systems. These developments highlight how electrification is reshaping the logistics landscape, not just as a compliance measure but as a strategic advantage for businesses.
Geography Analysis
California, Texas, New York, Florida, and Illinois collectively accounted for a majority of 2025 sales, anchored by dense freight corridors and supportive state policies. California’s zero-emission purchasing mandate accelerates turnover, while Texas leverages abundant, low-cost electricity that undercuts diesel operating expenses. New York’s depot-charger incentive programs ease capital barriers for small fleet operators, nudging adoption beyond large corporate buyers.
Florida benefits from well-trafficked east-coast logistics lanes that favor mid-range electric vans, and Illinois sits at a Midwest crossroads benefiting from NEVI-funded charging spines. The Pacific Northwest rides advantageous hydro-based power tariffs, helping total-cost-of-ownership break even sooner than in coal-heavy grids. Arizona and Nevada have positioned major interstates as proving grounds for autonomous-ready electrified trucks by offering regulatory sandboxes. Meanwhile, portions of the Mountain West remain diesel-leaning due to sparse charging infrastructure and long interstate stretches.
Transition speed, therefore, correlates with both policy ambition and the maturity of regional power grids. In the Midwest and Southeast, grid-capacity constraints slow fleet conversion. Utilities often quote multiyear upgrade lead times for large depots, forcing operators to delay electric procurement. However, early NEVI station completions along I-10, I-35, and I-75 begin to close range gaps, suggesting gradual convergence with coastal adoption rates over the forecast period.
Competitive Landscape
Market Concentration
Ford, General Motors, Daimler Truck, PACCAR, and Volvo Group together dominate the United States commercial vehicle market, sustaining their edge through nationwide dealer networks and established leasing arms. Each has launched battery-electric derivatives of legacy nameplates to hold share as electrification scales. The arrival of EV-native entrants such as Rivian and BYD injects fresh platform architectures optimized for modular batteries and over-the-air software support, prompting incumbents to accelerate digital roadmaps.
Technology strategies now diverge sharply. Vertically integrated players that build proprietary battery packs secure tighter cost control and supply assurance. Others rely on long-term cell contracts, exposing them to raw-material swings and delivery risk. Connector-standard choices also fragment the field, with some OEMs moving to the Tesla-originated NACS plug while others stay on CCS. Fleets juggling mixed brands must therefore weigh interoperability against replacement-cycle timing.
Autonomous-ready chassis emerge as the next competitive frontier. Drive-by-wire steering, domain-controller electronics, and 4D radar sensor suites ship in 2026 model years, laying the groundwork for future Level-4 upgrades pending regulatory clearance. Logistics operators view this pathway as a hedge against driver shortages and as a lever to raise asset utilization. For OEMs, early hardware readiness secures optionality and positions them to monetize future software-as-a-service layers.
United States Commercial Vehicles Industry Leaders
-
Ford Motor Company
-
General Motors Company
-
PACCAR
-
Volvo Group
-
Daimler Trucks
- *Disclaimer: Major Players sorted in no particular order
Recent Industry Developments
- August 2026: Daimler Truck North America plans to build an additional truck manufacturing plant in the United States, expected to begin operations in 2029.
- July 2025: Aurora Innovation launched its second-generation driverless trucks, with plans to expand across 10 commercial routes throughout the United States Sun Belt.
- June 2025: Stellantis launched Stellantis Pro One in North America, formerly Stellantis Fleet and Business Solutions, at the Fleet Preview event in Pontiac, Michigan.
United States Commercial Vehicles Market Report Scope
The United States Commercial Vehicle market is segmented by vehicle type, propulsion type, gross vehicle weight rating (tonnage class), and end-use industry. By Vehicle Type, the market is segmented into Buses, Heavy-Duty Commercial Trucks, Medium-Duty Commercial Trucks, Light Commercial Pick-up Trucks, and Light Commercial Vans. By Propulsion Type, the market is segmented into Hybrid and Electric Vehicles (BEV, FCEV, HEV, and PHEV) and Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) (Diesel, CNG/LPG, and Gasoline). By Gross Vehicle Weight Rating (Tonnage Class), the market is segmented into Class 1 (Below 1.8 t), Class 2 (1.8–3.5 t), Class 3 (3.5–7.5 t), Class 4 (7.5–16 t), and Class 5 (Above 16 t). By End-Use Industry, the market is segmented into Logistics and E-commerce, Construction and Mining, Public Transport, Utilities and Municipal Services, and Others (Agriculture, Retail).
Market forecasts are provided in terms of Value (USD) and Volume (Units).
By Vehicle Type
| Buses |
| Heavy-Duty Commercial Trucks |
| Medium-Duty Commercial Trucks |
| Light Commercial Pick-up Trucks |
| Light Commercial Vans |
By Propulsion Type
| Hybrid and Electric Vehicles | BEV |
| FCEV | |
| HEV | |
| PHEV | |
| Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) | Diesel |
| CNG/LPG | |
| Gasoline |
By Gross Vehicle Weight Rating
| Class 1 (Below 1.8 t) |
| Class 2 (1.8 to 3.5 t) |
| Class 3 (3.5 to 7.5 t) |
| Class 4 (7.5 to 16 t) |
| Class 5 (Above 16 t) |
By End-Use Industry
| Logistics and E-commerce |
| Construction and Mining |
| Public Transport |
| Utilities and Municipal Services |
| Others (Agriculture, Retail) |
| By Vehicle Type | Buses | |
| Heavy-Duty Commercial Trucks | ||
| Medium-Duty Commercial Trucks | ||
| Light Commercial Pick-up Trucks | ||
| Light Commercial Vans | ||
| By Propulsion Type | Hybrid and Electric Vehicles | BEV |
| FCEV | ||
| HEV | ||
| PHEV | ||
| Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) | Diesel | |
| CNG/LPG | ||
| Gasoline | ||
| By Gross Vehicle Weight Rating | Class 1 (Below 1.8 t) | |
| Class 2 (1.8 to 3.5 t) | ||
| Class 3 (3.5 to 7.5 t) | ||
| Class 4 (7.5 to 16 t) | ||
| Class 5 (Above 16 t) | ||
| By End-Use Industry | Logistics and E-commerce | |
| Construction and Mining | ||
| Public Transport | ||
| Utilities and Municipal Services | ||
| Others (Agriculture, Retail) | ||
Market Definition
- Vehicle Type - The category covers light, medium, and heavy duty commercial vehicle.
- Vehicle Body Type - This includes Light Commercial Pick-up Trucks, Light Commercial Vans, Medium-duty Commercial Trucks, Heavy-duty Commercial Trucks, and Medium and Heavy Duty Buses.
- Fuel Category - The category includes various fuel types such as Gasoline, Diesel, LPG (Liquefied Petroleum Gas), CNG (Compressed Natural Gas), HEV (Hybrid Electric Vehicles), PHEV (Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles), BEV (Battery Electric Vehicles), and FCEV (Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles)
| Keyword | Definition |
|---|---|
| Electric Vehicle (EV) | A vehicle which uses one or more electric motors for propulsion. Includes cars, buses, and trucks. This term includes all-electric vehicles or battery electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles. |
| BEV | A BEV relies completely on a battery and a motor for propulsion. The battery in the vehicle must be charged by plugging it into an outlet or public charging station. BEVs do not have an ICE and hence are pollution-free. They have a low cost of operation and reduced engine noise as compared to conventional fuel engines. However, they have a shorter range and higher prices than their equivalent gasoline models. |
| PEV | A plug-in electric vehicle is an electric vehicle that can be externally charged and generally includes all-electric vehicles as well as plug-in hybrids. |
| Plug-in Hybrid EV | A vehicle that can be powered either by an ICE or an electric motor. In contrast to normal hybrid EVs, they can be charged externally. |
| Internal combustion engine | An engine in which the burning of fuels occurs in a confined space called a combustion chamber. Usually run with gasoline/petrol or diesel. |
| Hybrid EV | A vehicle powered by an ICE in combination with one or more electric motors that use energy stored in batteries. These are continually recharged with power from the ICE and regenerative braking. |
| Commercial Vehicles | Commercial vehicles are motorized road vehicles designed for transporting people or goods. The category includes light commercial vehicles (LCVs) and medium and heavy-duty vehicles (M&HCV). |
| Passenger Vehicles | Passenger cars are electric motor– or engine-driven vehicles with at least four wheels. These vehicles are used for the transport of passengers and comprise no more than eight seats in addition to the driver’s seat. |
| Light Commercial Vehicles | Commercial vehicles that weigh less than 6,000 lb (Class 1) and in the range of 6,001–10,000 lb (Class 2) are covered under this category. |
| M&HDT | Commercial vehicles that weigh in the range of 10,001–14,000 lb (Class 3), 14,001–16,000 lb (Class 4), 16,001–19,500 lb (Class 5), 19,501–26,000 lb (Class 6), 26,001–33,000 lb (Class 7) and above 33,001 lb (Class 8) are covered under this category. |
| Bus | A mode of transportation that typically refers to a large vehicle designed to carry passengers over long distances. This includes transit bus, school bus, shuttle bus, and trolleybuses. |
| Diesel | It includes vehicles that use diesel as their primary fuel. A diesel engine vehicle have a compression-ignited injection system rather than the spark-ignited system used by most gasoline vehicles. In such vehicles, fuel is injected into the combustion chamber and ignited by the high temperature achieved when gas is greatly compressed. |
| Gasoline | It includes vehicles that use gas/petrol as their primary fuel. A gasoline car typically uses a spark-ignited internal combustion engine. In such vehicles, fuel is injected into either the intake manifold or the combustion chamber, where it is combined with air, and the air/fuel mixture is ignited by the spark from a spark plug. |
| LPG | It includes vehicles that use LPG as their primary fuel. Both dedicated and bi-fuel LPG vehicles are considered under the scope of the study. |
| CNG | It includes vehicles that use CNG as their primary fuel. These are vehicles that operate like gasoline-powered vehicles with spark-ignited internal combustion engines. |
| HEV | All the electric vehicles that use batteries and an internal combustion engine (ICE) as their primary source for propulsion are considered under this category. HEVs generally use a diesel-electric powertrain and are also known as hybrid diesel-electric vehicles. An HEV converts the vehicle momentum (kinetic energy) into electricity that recharges the battery when the vehicle slows down or stops. The battery of HEV cannot be charged using plug-in devices. |
| PHEV | PHEVs are powered by a battery as well as an ICE. The battery can be charged through either regenerative breaking using the ICE or by plugging into some external charging source. PHEVs have a better range than BEVs but are comparatively less eco-friendly. |
| Hatchback | These are compact-sized cars with a hatch-type door provided at the rear end. |
| Sedan | These are usually two- or four-door passenger cars, with a separate area provided at the rear end for luggage. |
| SUV | Popularly known as SUVs, these cars come with four-wheel drive, and usually have high ground clearance. These cars can also be used as off-road vehicles. |
| MPV | These are multi-purpose vehicles (also called minivans) designed to carry a larger number of passengers. They carry between five and seven people and have room for luggage too. They are usually taller than the average family saloon car, to provide greater headroom and ease of access, and they are usually front-wheel drive. |
Research Methodology
Mordor Intelligence follows a four-step methodology in all its reports.
- Step-1: Identify Key Variables: To build a robust forecasting methodology, the variables and factors identified in Step-1 are tested against available historical market numbers. Through an iterative process, the variables required for market forecast are set and the model is built based on these variables.
- Step-2: Build a Market Model: Market-size estimations for the historical and forecast years have been provided in revenue and volume terms. Market revenue is calculated by multiplying the sales volume with their respective average selling price (ASP). While estimating ASP factors like average inflation, market demand shift, manufacturing cost, technological advancement, and varying consumer preference, among others have been taken into account.
- Step-3: Validate and Finalize: In this important step, all market numbers, variables, and analyst calls are validated through an extensive network of primary research experts from the market studied. The respondents are selected across levels and functions to generate a holistic picture of the market studied.
- Step-4: Research Outputs: Syndicated Reports, Custom Consulting Assignments, Databases & Subscription Platforms.
