Turkey Renewable Energy Market Size & Share Analysis - Growth Trends & Forecasts (2025 - 2030)

Turkey Renewable Energy Market Trends and Insights

Grid-connected YEKA Auctions Accelerating Utility-scale Solar Buildout

Turkey’s Renewable Energy Resource Zone scheme awarded 800 MW across 12 projects in February 2025 at TRY 0.49–0.597 / kWh, locking in 20-year PPAs that underpin USD 500 million of investment.^{[1]Daily Sabah Staff, “Turkey’s YEKA Auctions Propel Solar Surge,” Daily Sabah, dailysabah.com} Major winners such as Kalyon and Temmuz Güneş gained land-allocation rights that bypass lengthy permits, cutting soft costs for developers. Annual YEKA rounds of at least 2 GW until 2035 give the Turkey renewable energy market a visible pipeline, replacing feed-in tariffs with tariffs 41% below the former ceiling, thus deepening price competitiveness. Investors value the auction’s currency-adjustment clause that cushions lira swings. The mechanism tightens competition among domestic EPCs and international module suppliers.

Rapid Deployment of Hybrid Wind-Solar Plants to Optimise Existing Grid Capacity

Hybrid projects totalling 240 plants already co-locate 510 MW of solar alongside wind, with wind accounting for 63% of aggregated hybrid capacity.^{[2]Anadolu Agency, “Turkey Doubles Solar Capacity in Two Years,” Anadolu Agency, aa.com.tr} Shared lines raise utilisation, deferring costly grid extensions in congested Western Anatolia. System studies confirm stable operation during conventional outages, validating expansion toward floating solar on state-owned reservoirs that could unlock another 80 GW.^{[3]IEEE Access Researchers, “Stability Analysis of Hybrid Wind-Solar Grid in Turkey,” ieee.org} EPC firms highlight truncated construction schedules because land rights and substations exist. Regulators now prioritise hybrid connection requests, accelerating approvals under two years. The model’s success spurs OEMs to design containerised BESS add-ons for ramp-rate control.

Stranded Gas Import Costs Driving Diversification to Domestic Renewables

Locally produced wind and solar saved USD 7 billion in gas import bills during 2024, equal to 2% of Turkey’s current-account deficit. Solar’s 19.6 GW fleet alone avoided USD 5.4 billion in imports that year. Each 800 MW of new solar capacity cuts the deficit another USD 140 million annually by substituting gas-fired output. The National Energy Plan therefore pegs indigenous renewables as a macro-stability tool amid volatile commodity prices. Energy security concerns intensify as geopolitical shifts expose pipeline supplies. Consequently, lenders view the Turkey renewable energy market as a hedge at both project and sovereign levels.

Emerging Green-Hydrogen Export Ambitions Boosting Wind-Electrolyser Projects

Government targets call for 2 GW of electrolyser capacity by 2030 and production costs below USD 2.4 / kg by 2035, leveraging a 60% renewable share in the generation mix in 2024. Coastal sites in Marmara and the Black Sea align offshore wind prospects with port infrastructure, enabling large-scale hydrogen for EU industries preparing for the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism starting 2026. Forecast costs of USD 1.42 / kg by 2050 place Turkey in the lowest quartile globally, enticing ammonia and steel exporters. Developers bundle 100–250 MW wind blocks with PEM electrolysers to capture scale economies, while multilateral banks craft blended-finance packages for early projects.

Congested Western Anatolia Transmission Corridors Limiting New Feed-ins

TEİAŞ estimates EUR 390 million per year is needed to relieve bottlenecks that delay interconnection by 12-18 months. Smart-grid upgrades and new submarine cables receive EUR 289.5 million in World Bank financing, yet permit timelines and land-acquisition hurdles extend build schedules. Developers increasingly choose alternative nodes farther from load centres, raising curtailment risk. The congestion reduces the Turkey renewable energy market’s near-term build rate in its most resource-rich corridor, nudging investors toward central provinces.

Lira Volatility Inflating Imported Turbine & Module CAPEX

Imported components still dominate wind and solar balance-of-plant costs despite domestic assembly incentives, exposing projects to exchange-rate spikes. Hedging instruments mitigate risk but add up to 4% of project cost, challenging bid competitiveness at YEKA auctions. Currency-adjustment clauses in PPAs offset variability but complicate financing. OEMs explore larger local content to qualify for bonus tariffs, yet high-spec blades and inverters remain sourced abroad, sustaining forex exposure.

Segment Analysis

By Type: Hydropower Dominance Faces Offshore Wind Disruption

Hydropower remained the backbone of the Turkey renewable energy market in 2024, holding 41% of installed capacity and supplying firm power vital for grid stability. Yet climate-induced flow variability diminishes predictability, prompting planners to fast-track wind and solar additions. Offshore wind, although nascent, exhibits a forecast 28.6% CAGR to 2030, supported by 75 GW of technical resources and proximity to Marmara load centres. The Turkey renewable energy market size for offshore wind is expected to jump when the first 1 GW projects reach final investment decision after 2026. Solar PV doubled from 9 GW in mid-2022 to 19.6 GW by 2024, overshooting the 2025 target and underscoring execution capacity. Onshore wind climbed to 12.5 GW, though land constraints and community opposition tilt future growth offshore.

The geothermal fleet positions Turkey among the world’s top seven geothermal nations; facilities such as Gürmat 2 combine flash and binary cycles to maximise output.^{[4]BSTDB Analysts, “Gürmat 2 Geothermal Financing Case,” bstdb.org} Bioenergy stays marginal, yet agricultural residues in the Anatolian plateau provide feedstock for waste-to-energy expansion. Technology diversity cushions hydrological variability and underpins a balanced generation mix. As equipment costs fall, solar and wind LCOEs remain below new-build gas, further increasing their share within the Turkey renewable energy market.

Note: Segment share of all individual segment available on report purchase

By Application: Utility-Scale Projects Drive Market While C&I Segment Accelerates

Utility-scale installations captured 68.5% of the Turkey renewable energy market size in 2024, driven by YEKA auctions that award long-term PPAs and allocate grid capacity. Scale enables average solar tariffs below USD 3.5 cents / kWh, out-competing imported coal. Developers integrate batteries to secure frequency-response contracts, widening revenue streams. However, grid-constrained regions now cap new utility connections, shifting momentum toward distributed assets. The commercial and industrial segment leads growth at a 15.4% CAGR as exporters adopt renewables to meet Scope 2 targets. Corporates sign virtual PPAs to hedge electricity price spikes, creating secondary liquidity for financiers.

Residential and micro-grid uptake benefits from the unlicensed generation framework allowing 5 MW rooftop systems without full concession bids. Household net-metering reforms from mid-2024 accelerated rooftop demand in Istanbul and Izmir, where electricity prices rise faster than inflation. Smart-meter penetration exceeds 80% in urban centres, enabling time-of-use tariffs that reward self-consumption. As corporate off-takers chase RE100 badges, developers tailor 10-20 MW solar clusters interconnected at medium voltage, shortening build cycles to nine months. This distributed wave spreads renewable penetration across all customer classes, amplifying the Turkey renewable energy market footprint.

Note: Segment share of all individual segment available on report purchase

Geography Analysis

Geography Analysis

Regional deployment illustrates resource endowments and network realities. Western Anatolia and the Marmara corridor host the densest fleet, yet congestion slows new feed-ins, prompting hybrid retrofits that squeeze more electrons through existing lines. Central Anatolia, with high irradiation and available land, captured the bulk of the 2025 YEKA solar tranche, including flagship 150 MW systems in Konya and Karaman. Hybrid agrivoltaic schemes there pair sheep grazing with solar, keeping local stakeholders engaged.

Along the Black Sea and Mediterranean coasts, shallow waters and consistent wind speeds favour offshore prospects. Bozcaada and Bandırma appear in pre-feasibility lists, while Izmir’s industrial port upgrades for heavy-lift vessels position it as an assembly hub. Eastern Anatolia relies on large reservoirs for hydro but faces declining rainfall that challenges dispatch planning. Geothermal activity in Aydın and Denizli underpins direct-use heating for food processing, anchoring regional value chains.

Northern provinces leverage strong onshore wind and emerging hydrogen corridors linked to European pipelines. Southern regions bank on high solar yields and agricultural synergies. Balanced transmission investment of EUR 390 million per year remains critical to integrate these geographically diverse resources and sustain Turkey renewable energy market growth.