Market Overview
| Study Period | 2020 - 2030 |
|---|---|
| Base Year For Estimation | 2024 |
| Forecast Data Period | 2025 - 2030 |
| Market Volume (2025) | 76.04 gigawatt |
| Market Volume (2030) | 113.45 gigawatt |
| Growth Rate (2025 - 2030) | 8.33% CAGR |
| Market Concentration | Medium |
Major Players
*Disclaimer: Major Players sorted in no particular order Image © Mordor Intelligence. Reuse requires attribution under CC BY 4.0. |
|
Turkey Renewable Energy Market Analysis by Mordor Intelligence
The Turkey Renewable Energy Market size in terms of installed base is expected to grow from 76.04 gigawatt in 2025 to 113.45 gigawatt by 2030, at a CAGR of 8.33% during the forecast period (2025-2030).
The country's upbeat trajectory keeps it in fifth place among Europe's renewable power producers, with clean sources already covering 56% of its installed capacity and a government goal of 64.7% by 2035. Ambitious policy signals, most notably the National Energy Plan's 189.7 GW 2035 target and a USD 100 billion capital program, anchor a robust pipeline requiring 7.5 to 8 GW of annual additions. Competitive YEKA auctions, dramatic solar cost declines, and a corporate PPA boom led by export-oriented manufacturers collectively strengthen revenue visibility and compress payback periods across the Turkey renewable energy market. The grid recorded a 78.5% renewables share on the nation's best day of 2024, underscoring operational readiness for high-penetration scenarios.
Key Report Takeaways
- By technology, hydropower led with 46.8% market share in 2024, while solar energy posted the fastest 16.3% CAGR outlook to 2030.
- By end-user, utilities controlled 69.2% of the Turkey renewable energy market size in 2024; the same segment is projected to expand at a 9.7% CAGR through 2030.
Turkey Renewable Energy Market Trends and Insights
Drivers Impact Analysis
| Driver | (~) % Impact on CAGR Forecast | Geographic Relevance | Impact Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Grid-connected YEKA auctions accelerating utility-scale solar | +2.1% | National, Central & Eastern Anatolia | Medium term (2-4 years) |
| Stranded gas import costs spurring domestic renewables | +1.8% | National, industrial corridors | Long term (≥ 4 years) |
| Hybrid wind–solar plants optimizing grid capacity | +1.4% | Western Anatolia, Aegean | Short term (≤ 2 years) |
| Corporate PPA boom among RE100 exporters | +1.2% | Marmara and Central Anatolia industrial zones | Medium term (2-4 years) |
| Green-hydrogen export ambitions | +1.1% | Black Sea & Mediterranean coasts | Long term (≥ 4 years) |
| Geothermal heat use in agri-food hubs | +0.7% | Western Anatolia, Aydın & Denizli | Short term (≤ 2 years) |
| Source: Mordor Intelligence | |||
YEKA auctions accelerating utility-scale solar buildout
YEKA tenders awarded 1.2 GW of wind and 800 MW of solar in 2024 at tariffs below USD 0.06/kWh, undercutting gas-fired alternatives and guaranteeing grid access. Domestic-content rules sparked a USD 2.5 billion solar-cell investment wave led by Astronergy and four Turkish peers.[1]PV Tech, “Solar Cell Factories Worth USD 2.5 Billion Head to Turkey,” pv-tech.org The model mitigates stranded-capacity risks through pre-arranged interconnections, as showcased by the 250 MW Aydın YEKA-2 complex, which now serves as a blueprint for upcoming solar farms. Annual YEKA offerings of at least 2 GW through 2030 establish a visible pipeline, enhancing bankability across the Turkish renewable energy market.
Stranded gas import costs driving diversification
Turkey spends approximately USD 40 billion a year on natural-gas imports, an exposure that policymakers aim to mitigate by reducing gas power's share to 18.9% by 2025. Feed-in tariffs, a proposed "super-permit" that trims approval cycles to two years, and the USD 100 billion investment envelope all redirect capital toward renewables. Record-day statistics, with renewables meeting 78.5% of national demand, demonstrate the grid's ability to accommodate high volumes and validate the growth thesis for the Turkish renewable energy market.
Hybrid wind–solar plants optimizing existing grid
Solar surpassed wind for the first time in 2024, driven by hybrid extensions that increase output per interconnection point and reduce grid-link fees by up to 40%.[2]Ember Climate, “Türkiye Electricity Review 2024,” ember-climate.org At the Pazarköy site, a 31.2 MW solar array piggybacks on wind infrastructure, while PVH trackers enhance the 157 MW Viranşehir solar plant’s yield. This playbook relieves Western Anatolia’s congested grid and accelerates capacity growth within the Turkey renewable energy market.
Corporate PPA boom among RE100 exporters
Export-oriented automakers and white-goods firms are seeking 100% clean power to maintain access to the EU market, exemplified by BYD’s USD 1 billion EV facility and Erdemir’s USD 3.2 billion investment in steel decarbonization. The state reserved 7.5 GW expressly for industrial self-consumption and launched YEK-G energy-attribute certificates, enabling firms to lock in renewable PPAs at prices 15 to 20% below grid tariffs. As corporate offtake expands, long-tenor contracts de-risk generation assets and broaden investor appeal across the Turkey renewable energy market.
Restraints Impact Analysis
| Restraint | (~) % Impact on CAGR Forecast | Geographic Relevance | Impact Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Congested Western Anatolia transmission corridors | −1.6% | Western Anatolia, Aegean | Short term (≤ 2 years) |
| Lira volatility inflating imported turbine & module CAPEX | −1.2% | National | Medium term (2-4 years) |
| Seasonal hydro variability in Euphrates basin | −0.9% | Eastern Anatolia | Long term (≥ 4 years) |
| Slow offshore-wind environmental permitting | −0.5% | Marmara & Black Sea coasts | Medium term (2-4 years) |
| Source: Mordor Intelligence | |||
Congested Western Anatolia transmission corridors
Some Aegean grid nodes are facing 18-month connection delays, stalling prime resource projects. A USD 70 million upgrade fund and a 60,717 km expansion blueprint exist, yet timelines lag developer needs.[3]Turkish Republic Investment Office, "エネルギー | トルコ共和国大統領府投資局," investturkey.or.jp Work-arounds include hybrid extensions and the pre-licensing of 25.6 GW of storage that can buffer exports, but near-term throttling trims the Turkey renewable energy market’s headline growth.
Lira volatility inflating import CAPEX
Exchange swings lifted foreign-equipment bills by up to 25%, while policy-driven rate hikes to 50% raise financing costs. A 30% duty on imported LFP batteries is designed to seed local factories, yet domestic depth for turbines and inverters stays thin. Although hedging tools and lira loans offset some exposure, currency risk still dents IRRs across the Turkey renewable energy market.
Segment Analysis
By Technology: Solar Surge Challenges Hydropower Dominance
Hydropower supplied 32.7 GW in 2024, equal to 46.8% of Turkey's renewable energy market share. Yet, solar installations reached 18.7 GW by September 2024 and are projected to grow at a 16.3% CAGR, making them the primary growth engine of the Turkish renewable energy market. Wind stands at 12.4 GW but gains momentum from a 5 GW offshore target, while geothermal's 1.717 GW puts Turkey fourth worldwide.
Falling levelized costs, USD 0.044/kWh for solar and USD 0.033/kWh for wind, spur annual addition rates projected at 7.5–8 GW, compared with 3.2 GW during 2019-2024. Bioenergy's nascent value chain is benefiting from tailwinds generated by biogas-to-methanol pilots, and early feasibility studies are exploring the potential of Black Sea wave and tidal resources. Hybridization, combined with battery coupling, is redefining project economics by embedding grid services revenue streams into the broader Turkish renewable energy market.
Note: Segment shares of all individual segments available upon report purchase
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By End-User: Utilities Drive Growth Across All Segments
Utilities held 69.2% of the Turkey renewable energy market size in 2024, thanks to YEKA’s big-project bias and priority grid slots for ≥5 MW plants. The same cohort is projected to show a 9.7% CAGR to 2030, as large hydro refurbishments, gigawatt-scale solar parks, and grid-scale batteries are rolled out.
Commercial and industrial buyers sign long-term PPAs to reduce their energy bills by 15-20% and comply with carbon border rules, while YEK-G certificates verify their clean power claims. Residential uptake benefits from net metering for sub-5 MW rooftops, but loan availability tempers the volume. Across segments, integrated storage smooths variable output, reinforcing reliability narratives that support premium-priced contracts within the Turkey renewable energy market.
Note: Segment shares of all individual segments available upon report purchase
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Geography Analysis
Western Anatolia and the Aegean region host 40% of installed capacity, leveraging superior wind regimes and legacy grid lines. Congestion, however, pushes developers east, with Central Anatolia poised for 11.2% CAGR on the strength of giant solar YEKA parcels and vast tracts of low-cost land.
The Black Sea’s 435 GW technical offshore wind resource is undergoing seabed mapping before late-2026 auctions, potentially shifting the geographic center of the Turkish renewable energy market. Eastern Anatolia’s hydro clusters face drought exposure, motivating the development of complementary storage and solar fleets to stabilize local grids. Mediterranean provinces exploit ≥1,600 kWh/m² irradiation for agrivoltaics, while Marmara’s industrial heartland implements distributed rooftop arrays that cut feeder losses.
Regional capacity targets, including 22.6 GW of solar, 14.8 GW of wind, and 4.5 GW of geothermal, will be tied to development incentives based on resource quality and grid headroom by the end of 2025.[4]PV Magazine, “Turkey’s Regional Solar Targets,” pv-magazine.com Diversifying the build-out reduces weather correlation risk and underpins grid stability in the Turkish renewable energy market.
Competitive Landscape
Local heavyweights Enerjisa Üretim, Zorlu Enerji, and Kalyon Enerji oversee multi-gigawatt portfolios, while Kontrolmatik partners with Harbin Electric on Europe's first 1 GW wind-plus-storage plant.[5]Energy Storage News, “1 GWh Wind-Plus-Storage Milestone,” energy-storage.news Nordex, Vestas, Siemens Gamesa, and GE Vernova dominate turbine deliveries, although domestic-content quotas encourage localization of nacelles and blades.
Strategic focus shifts toward bundled offerings that integrate generation, storage, and flexibility services, meeting TEİAŞ's ancillary service requirements and unlocking multiple revenue streams. Offshore wind, agrivoltaics, and hydrogen value chains remain white spaces where early entrants can secure permits and port capacity ahead of scaling.
IPO pipelines, such as the E.ON–Sabancı float managed by Citi and J.P. Morgan, signal a deepening of capital markets liquidity and the establishment of fresh valuation benchmarks. M&A filings worth USD 2 billion a year reveal a consolidation path toward scale efficiencies, underscoring a maturing yet opportunity-rich Turkey renewable energy market.
Turkey Renewable Energy Industry Leaders
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İÇ İçtaş Energy Investment Holding
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Enerjisa Üretim
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Kalyon Enerji
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Sanko Energy Group
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Polat Enerji Yatirimlari A.Ş.
- *Disclaimer: Major Players sorted in no particular order
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Recent Industry Developments
- April 2025: Nordex signed twin wind-turbine orders with Enerjisa Üretim, deepening localization.
- April 2025: Astronergy and its Turkish peers unveiled a USD 2.5 billion solar cell manufacturing initiative.
- March 2025: ANDRITZ secured a mid-double-digit million-euro equipment contract for the Incir hydroelectric plant.
- March 2025: Wison won FEED for Turkey’s first biogas-to-methanol plant, diversifying bioenergy uses.
- January 2025: The EBRD approved financing for Polat Enerji's renewable capital expenditure plan, thereby enhancing the project's bankability.
Research Methodology Framework and Report Scope
Market Definitions and Key Coverage
Our study counts every grid-connected renewable generator commissioned within Turkiye and certified by the Energy Market Regulatory Authority, hydropower, wind, solar PV, geothermal, and bioenergy facilities, expressed in installed capacity (gigawatts) rather than revenue.
Scope exclusion: off-grid rooftop kits below 10 kW, stand-alone storage projects, and renewable-powered hydrogen electrolysers are not included.
Segmentation Overview
- By Technology
- Solar Energy (PV and CSP)
- Wind Energy (Onshore and Offshore)
- Hydropower (Small, Large, PSH)
- Bioenergy
- Geothermal
- Ocean Energy (Tidal and Wave)
- By End-User
- Utilities
- Commercial and Industrial
- Residential
Detailed Research Methodology and Data Validation
Primary Research
Mordor analysts interviewed independent power producers, EPC contractors, grid-code inspectors, and financial advisers across Marmara, Central Anatolia, and the Aegean. Discussions validated average capacity factors, YEKA bid price assumptions, and the likely share of hybrid solar-wind retrofits, filling gaps that desk sources left open.
Desk Research
We began with daily downloads from TEIAS annual load curves and plant registers, the Ministry of Energy's YEKA tender files, and EPDK license databases, which reveal real commissioning dates and nameplate ratings. Trend lines were cross-checked against IEA Renewables Tracker, Eurostat monthly electricity balances, and UN Comtrade turbine and module import codes. Paid libraries such as D&B Hoovers and Dow Jones Factiva added company-level disclosures on project costs and lead times. These examples illustrate, yet do not exhaust, the secondary evidence pool tapped to frame supply, demand, and policy signals.
Market-Sizing & Forecasting
A top-down capacity build model starts with historical generation and trade data, then layers on approved pipeline capacity and typical construction lags. Selected bottom-up checks, utility balance-sheet roll-ups, and sampled ASP-by-MW calculations ensure physical plausibility before totals are adjusted. Key variables include auctioned megawatts, module import volumes, currency-adjusted CAPEX indices, average capacity factor by technology, and feed-in tariff enrollment rates. A multivariate regression, stress-tested through scenario analysis, projects additions to 2030 while GDP growth and Lira volatility act as exogenous drivers. Residual gaps in sub-segments are smoothed using conservative uptake ratios agreed in expert calls.
Data Validation & Update Cycle
Outputs undergo variance scans against IEA and TEIAS quarterly updates; anomalies trigger re-checks with original respondents. Two analysts review every model before sign-off. We refresh figures annually and issue interim tweaks if policy or tender outcomes move the baseline.
Why Mordor's Turkey Renewable Energy Baseline Stands Up to Scrutiny
Published estimates often differ because firms choose distinct metrics, base years, or segment cuts. We anchor our 73.74 GW 2025 baseline to regulator-verified capacity and a transparent pipeline filter, which prunes shelved licenses early on.
Key gap drivers include whether future YEKA rounds are counted at award or at commissioning, if small hydro is excluded, and whether values are expressed in dollars rather than megawatts, each choice shifting totals noticeably.
Benchmark comparison
| Market Size | Anonymized source | Primary gap driver |
|---|---|---|
| 73.74 GW (2025) | Mordor Intelligence | - |
| 58.7 GW (2024) | Global Consultancy A | Earlier base year and omits licensed yet-to-build capacity, trimming solar and wind potential |
| USD 12.53 B (2024) | Regional Consultancy B | Reports equipment revenue only, mixes CAPEX with OPEX, and converts to dollars, masking capacity growth |
| USD 11.36 B (2022) | Market Intelligence C | Uses an early cut-off and limits scope to residential and commercial rooftops, excluding utility assets |
This comparison shows that once metric type, scope breadth, and refresh cadence are aligned, Mordor's balanced, regulator-anchored baseline offers decision-makers the most dependable starting point.
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Key Questions Answered in the Report
How large is the Turkey renewable energy market today?
The Turkey renewable energy market size is 76.04 GW in 2025 and is projected to hit 113.45 GW by 2030.
Which technology will grow fastest through 2030?
Solar energy is set to post a 16.3% CAGR, the quickest among all technologies.
Why are YEKA auctions critical for investors?
YEKA guarantees grid access and competitive pricing, offering developers predictable revenue streams and lowering risk.
How do corporate PPAs influence project pipelines?
Export-oriented firms sign long-term PPAs that underwrite new capacity and offer prices up to 20% below grid tariffs.
What role will green hydrogen play?
With a 625,000-tonne export target by 2035, green hydrogen opens a new demand segment that can anchor additional wind capacity.
What constraints could slow near-term growth?
Transmission congestion in Western Anatolia and lira volatility that inflates import costs remain the chief headwinds.
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