Market Overview
| Study Period | 2021 - 2031 |
|---|---|
| Base Year For Estimation | 2025 |
| Forecast Data Period | 2026 - 2031 |
| Market Volume (2026) | 82.25 gigawatt |
| Market Volume (2031) | 121.80 gigawatt |
| Growth Rate (2026 - 2031) | 8.17% CAGR |
| Market Concentration | Medium |
Major Players *Disclaimer: Major Players sorted in no particular order Image © Mordor Intelligence. Reuse requires attribution under CC BY 4.0. | |
Turkey Renewable Energy Market Analysis by Mordor Intelligence
The Turkey Renewable Energy Market size in terms of installed base is expected to grow from 82.25 gigawatt in 2026 to 121.80 gigawatt by 2031, at a CAGR of 8.17% during the forecast period (2026-2031).
The Turkey renewable energy market is expanding because solar auctions now clear at EUR 32.5–55 per MWh, corporate PPAs outcompete grid tariffs, and a 1:1 storage mandate begins to lift ancillary-service revenues. Rapid growth in unlicensed commercial and industrial (C&I) projects signals that distributed self-consumption is easing grid-connection queues. Hybrid wind–solar plants smooth output, raise capacity factors, and help the Turkey renewable energy market sidestep Western Anatolia congestion. Ankara’s USD 2.5 billion solar-manufacturing plan and syndicated loans worth more than USD 1 billion for new wind farms underline rising capital inflows. Yet lira depreciation, transmission bottlenecks, and seasonal hydro swings temper near-term momentum across the Turkey renewable energy market.
Key Report Takeaways
- By technology, hydropower led with 43.4% Turkey's renewable energy market share in 2025, while solar capacity is forecast to expand at a 15.0% CAGR through 2031.
- By end-user, utilities accounted for 69.5% of the Turkey renewable energy market size in 2025, whereas the C&I segment is advancing at a 9.5% CAGR through 2031.
Note: Market size and forecast figures in this report are generated using Mordor Intelligence’s proprietary estimation framework, updated with the latest available data and insights as of January 2026.
Turkey Renewable Energy Market Trends and Insights
Drivers Impact Analysis
| Driver | (~) % Impact on CAGR Forecast | Geographic Relevance | Impact Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Grid-connected YEKA Auctions Accelerating Utility-scale Solar Buildout | +1.8% | National, concentrated in Central Anatolia solar zones | Medium term (2–4 years) |
| Rapid Deployment of Hybrid Wind-Solar Plants to Optimize Existing Grid Capacity | +1.2% | Western Anatolia, Marmara, Aegean regions | Short term (≤ 2 years) |
| Stranded Gas Import Costs Driving Urgent Diversification to Domestic Renewables | +1.5% | National | Short term (≤ 2 years) |
| Emerging Green-Hydrogen Export Ambitions Boosting Wind-Electrolyzer Projects | +0.8% | Coastal regions (Marmara, Black Sea, Mediterranean) | Long term (≥ 4 years) |
| Corporate PPA Boom Led by Automotive & White-Goods Exporters Seeking RE100 Compliance | +1.0% | Industrial hubs (Istanbul, Bursa, Kocaeli, Izmir) | Medium term (2–4 years) |
| Geothermal Heat Utilisation in Agri-Food Processing Hubs of Aydın & Denizli | +0.3% | Western Anatolia (Aydın, Denizli, Manisa) | Medium term (2–4 years) |
| Source: Mordor Intelligence | |||
Grid-Connected YEKA Auctions Accelerating Utility-Scale Solar Buildout
YEKA tenders awarded 1,200 MW of wind in January 2025 and 800 MW of solar in February 2025, locking in 15-year offtake at EUR 32.5–55 per MWh.[1]International Energy Agency, “Turkey Energy Policies Review 2024,” iea.org Developers must close grid-connection deals within 18 months, so vertically integrated conglomerates dominate awards, reinforcing scale advantages inside the Turkey renewable energy market. Solar capacity doubled from 11.3 GW in 2023 to 20 GW in 2024, hitting the 18 GW policy milestone 18 months ahead of plan. The HIT-30 industrial program steers USD 2.5 billion toward cell plants that will manufacture 15 GW annually by 2030, supporting job creation and import substitution. As auctions compress timelines and expand local content, utility-scale solar will remain the fastest catalyst of growth across the Turkey renewable energy market.
Rapid Deployment of Hybrid Wind–Solar Plants to Optimize Existing Grid Capacity
Regulators in 2024 allowed hybrids to oversubscribe interconnections by 30% if dispatch stays within the contracted limit.[2]Ember Climate, “Hybrid Wind-Solar Trends in Turkey,” ember-climate.org Pairing 100 MW of wind with 30 MW of solar on a single feeder lifts capacity factors by up to 12 percentage points and cuts levelized cost by 15%. Roughly 1 GW is online and 3.5 GW in the queue, illustrating how the Turkey renewable energy market converts stranded grid assets into revenue. Hybrids also hedge against hydro droughts because mandatory 1:1 batteries shift output from midday peaks to evening demand. This flexibility turns transmission congestion from a restraint into an engineering opportunity for the Turkey renewable energy market.
Emerging Green-Hydrogen Export Ambitions Boosting Wind-Electrolyzer Projects
The 2024 hydrogen roadmap targets 2 GW of electrolyzers by 2030 and 70 GW by 2053.[3]Hydrogen Technologies Platform, “National Hydrogen Roadmap,” hypat-global.org A EUR 3 million EU grant funds a 10 MW pilot that blends hydrogen into the gas grid. World Bank studies find Marmara offshore wind can deliver electrons for USD 3 kg of hydrogen by 2030, undercutting gray hydrogen. Domestic refiners and steel mills will absorb early volumes, yet export plans expect 2 million tonnes by 2040, positioning the Turkey renewable energy market as a regional hydrogen bridge between the Middle East and Europe.
Corporate PPA Boom Led by Automotive and White-Goods Exporters Seeking RE100 Compliance
Unlicensed C&I solar added 8.9 GW between 2023 and 2024, accounting for 90% of new solar. A 10-year PPA at EUR 40 MWh beats the grid price of EUR 55 MWh, delivering immediate savings and Scope 2 compliance for exporters. Automotive shipments of USD 32 billion in 2024 face EU carbon tariffs from 2026, so factories in Bursa, Kocaeli, and Sakarya are rushing to lock in renewable certificates. The C&I rush underscores how corporate risk management is rewriting demand curves inside the Turkey renewable energy market.
Restraints Impact Analysis
| Restraint | (~) % Impact on CAGR Forecast | Geographic Relevance | Impact Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Congested Western Anatolia Transmission Corridors Limiting New Feed-ins | -0.9% | Western Anatolia, Marmara, Aegean regions | Short term (≤ 2 years) |
| Lira Volatility Inflating Imported Turbine & Module CAPEX | -1.1% | National | Short term (≤ 2 years) |
| Seasonal Hydro Variability from Euphrates Basin Drought Cycles | -0.5% | Southeastern Anatolia, Euphrates-Tigris basin | Medium term (2–4 years) |
| Slow Environmental Permitting for Offshore Wind Leasing Zones | -0.3% | Marmara Sea, Black Sea coastal zones | Long term (≥ 4 years) |
| Source: Mordor Intelligence | |||
Congested Western Anatolia Transmission Corridors Limiting New Feed-ins
Substations in Izmir, Manisa, and Balıkesir run at up to 95% of capacity during peaks, stretching grid-connection queues to three years.[4]World Bank, “Transmission System Transformation Project,” worldbank.org Curtailment hit 6% of potential wind output in early 2024, eroding revenue by EUR 15 million. Hybrids and batteries provide partial relief, yet full resolution awaits USD 1 billion of line upgrades due in 2027. Until then, congestion slows the roll-out pace of the Turkey renewable energy market in its most resource-rich zones.
Lira Volatility Inflating Imported Turbine and Module CAPEX
The lira halved in value between January 2023 and December 2024. A VAT re-classification lifted landed module prices from USD 0.21 W to USD 0.51 W, while an anti-dumping tariff added USD 25 m² on Asian panels. Battery systems rose 30% after a tax surcharge, adding two years to payback. Lenders shortened tenors and raised spreads, squeezing developer margins across the Turkey renewable energy market.
Segment Analysis
By Technology – Solar Surges as Hydro Plateaus
Solar recorded the fastest 15.0% CAGR outlook, doubling to 20 GW in 2024 on the back of YEKA awards and C&I self-consumption. Hydropower’s 43.4% share in 2025 makes it the largest block, yet additions slow because the best dam sites are built out and pumped-storage permits need more than 36 months. Wind sits at 11.4% of capacity and benefits from co-location that boosts capacity factors by 8 - 12 points. Bioenergy supplies 1.5% of generation, anchored by Istanbul’s waste-to-energy plant. Geothermal covers 3.2% with direct-use upside in food hubs. Ocean energy remains absent. The 120 GW wind-and-solar target for 2035 means these two technologies will represent over 60% of the Turkey renewable energy market size by the end of the forecast period.
Solar continues to outpace other resources because tariff certainty, domestic manufacturing incentives, and relaxed site rules align. Hydropower growth plateaus as ecological scrutiny increases. Wind accelerates where grid capacity allows, and hybrid plants help skirt curtailment. Geothermal’s direct heat supplies agro-clusters with cheaper process energy. Bioenergy scales through municipal waste contracts, diversifying feedstocks. Together, evolving technology shares reshape the Turkey renewable energy market toward a more balanced mix.
Note: Segment shares of all individual segments available upon report purchase
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By End-User – Utilities Lead While C&I Self-Consumption Accelerates
Utilities controlled 69.5% of capacity in 2025 and still enjoy pooled demand and long-term PPAs. Regulatory mandates require state distributors to meet a 50% renewable supply by 2030, so utility pipelines stay full. The C&I segment, however, grew 82% in 2023-24 after cross-zone rules allowed factories to contract remote solar, and it now drives 90% of annual solar additions. Rooftop residential remains modest given 11-year paybacks, although a USD 1 billion World Bank program targets 7.5 GW of distributed solar plus batteries by 2035.
Utility dominance stems from financing scale and grid priority. Yet export-oriented manufacturers rush to secure renewable attributes before EU carbon levies bite. Residential uptake will rise if VAT waivers and cheap loans arrive. The shift toward self-consumption broadens participation, embedding thousands of new actors in the Turkey renewable energy market.
Note: Segment shares of all individual segments available upon report purchase
Get Detailed Market Forecasts at the Most Granular Levels
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Geography Analysis
Turkey’s 82.25 GW renewable fleet clusters where resources, load, and grid overlap. Western Anatolia and Marmara host 45% of wind, thanks to 7-8 m/s speeds and dense industry. Central Anatolia secures 30% of solar on high irradiance plains. Southeastern dams provide 40% of hydro but face water stress, with flow down 15 – 20% during drought. Black Sea and Marmara waters hold 10 GW offshore potential, yet permitting lags. Eastern Anatolia’s rugged terrain limits projects despite strong winds. Mediterranean geothermal wells in Aydın and Denizli promise heat for agro-processing.
Regional growth skews forward. Central Anatolia solar could rise 16–18% yearly to 2031. Western corridors will absorb 40% of new wind once 800 km of line upgrades finish in 2027. Hydro in the southeast grows below 2% because viable sites are scarce. Offshore zones may add 2–3 GW if licenses emerge by mid-2026. Without regulatory clarity, resource-rich coasts wait, constraining geographic diversification in the Turkey renewable energy market.
Competitive Landscape
The top five players, İçtaş, Kalyon, Zorlu, Enerjisa, and Limak, hold 30–35% of capacity, leaving room for over 200 smaller firms. Enerjisa will add 1 GW by early 2026 after a USD 1 billion loan, lifting its renewable ratio to 60%. Limak’s green Eurobond refinances 1,141 MWe and backs agrivoltaic pilots. Polat and Kontrolmatik pioneer storage, installing Turkey’s largest 4 MWh battery and contracting 1 GWh wind-plus-storage, respectively. Siemens Gamesa’s Izmir nacelle plant meets 30% of turbine demand and signals localisation momentum.
Hybrid engineering skill and domestic content decide auction wins because the 1:1 storage mandate raises complexity. The HIT-30 policy waives VAT when modules are 100% Turkish-made, pushing backward integration into polysilicon. Offshore wind remains open; no firm yet holds permits, so first movers that master EIAs could secure premium Marmara leases. Moderate fragmentation and rising technical thresholds define competition in the Turkey renewable energy market.
Turkey Renewable Energy Industry Leaders
İÇ İçtaş Energy Investment Holding
Enerjisa Üretim
Kalyon Enerji
Sanko Energy Group
Polat Enerji Yatirimlari A.Ş.
- *Disclaimer: Major Players sorted in no particular order
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Recent Industry Developments
- May 2025: ANDRITZ secured a mid-double-digit million-euro equipment contract for the Incir hydroelectric plant.
- April 2025: Nordex signed twin wind-turbine orders with Enerjisa Üretim, deepening localization.
- April 2025: Astronergy and its Turkish peers unveiled a USD 2.5 billion solar cell manufacturing initiative.
- March 2025: Wison won FEED for Turkey’s first biogas-to-methanol plant, diversifying bioenergy uses.
Research Methodology Framework and Report Scope
Market Definitions and Key Coverage
Our study counts every grid-connected renewable generator commissioned within Turkiye and certified by the Energy Market Regulatory Authority, hydropower, wind, solar PV, geothermal, and bioenergy facilities, expressed in installed capacity (gigawatts) rather than revenue.
Scope exclusion: off-grid rooftop kits below 10 kW, stand-alone storage projects, and renewable-powered hydrogen electrolysers are not included.
Segmentation Overview
- By Technology
- Solar Energy (PV and CSP)
- Wind Energy (Onshore and Offshore)
- Hydropower (Small, Large, PSH)
- Bioenergy
- Geothermal
- Ocean Energy (Tidal and Wave)
- By End-User
- Utilities
- Commercial and Industrial
- Residential
Detailed Research Methodology and Data Validation
Primary Research
Mordor analysts interviewed independent power producers, EPC contractors, grid-code inspectors, and financial advisers across Marmara, Central Anatolia, and the Aegean. Discussions validated average capacity factors, YEKA bid price assumptions, and the likely share of hybrid solar-wind retrofits, filling gaps that desk sources left open.
Desk Research
We began with daily downloads from TEIAS annual load curves and plant registers, the Ministry of Energy's YEKA tender files, and EPDK license databases, which reveal real commissioning dates and nameplate ratings. Trend lines were cross-checked against IEA Renewables Tracker, Eurostat monthly electricity balances, and UN Comtrade turbine and module import codes. Paid libraries such as D&B Hoovers and Dow Jones Factiva added company-level disclosures on project costs and lead times. These examples illustrate, yet do not exhaust, the secondary evidence pool tapped to frame supply, demand, and policy signals.
Market-Sizing & Forecasting
A top-down capacity build model starts with historical generation and trade data, then layers on approved pipeline capacity and typical construction lags. Selected bottom-up checks, utility balance-sheet roll-ups, and sampled ASP-by-MW calculations ensure physical plausibility before totals are adjusted. Key variables include auctioned megawatts, module import volumes, currency-adjusted CAPEX indices, average capacity factor by technology, and feed-in tariff enrollment rates. A multivariate regression, stress-tested through scenario analysis, projects additions to 2030 while GDP growth and Lira volatility act as exogenous drivers. Residual gaps in sub-segments are smoothed using conservative uptake ratios agreed in expert calls.
Data Validation & Update Cycle
Outputs undergo variance scans against IEA and TEIAS quarterly updates; anomalies trigger re-checks with original respondents. Two analysts review every model before sign-off. We refresh figures annually and issue interim tweaks if policy or tender outcomes move the baseline.
Why Mordor's Turkey Renewable Energy Baseline Stands Up to Scrutiny
Published estimates often differ because firms choose distinct metrics, base years, or segment cuts. We anchor our 73.74 GW 2025 baseline to regulator-verified capacity and a transparent pipeline filter, which prunes shelved licenses early on.
Key gap drivers include whether future YEKA rounds are counted at award or at commissioning, if small hydro is excluded, and whether values are expressed in dollars rather than megawatts, each choice shifting totals noticeably.
Benchmark comparison
| Market Size | Anonymized source | Primary gap driver |
|---|---|---|
| 73.74 GW (2025) | Mordor Intelligence | - |
| 58.7 GW (2024) | Global Consultancy A | Earlier base year and omits licensed yet-to-build capacity, trimming solar and wind potential |
| USD 12.53 B (2024) | Regional Consultancy B | Reports equipment revenue only, mixes CAPEX with OPEX, and converts to dollars, masking capacity growth |
| USD 11.36 B (2022) | Market Intelligence C | Uses an early cut-off and limits scope to residential and commercial rooftops, excluding utility assets |
This comparison shows that once metric type, scope breadth, and refresh cadence are aligned, Mordor's balanced, regulator-anchored baseline offers decision-makers the most dependable starting point.
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Key Questions Answered in the Report
How large is the Turkey renewable energy market in 2026?
Installed capacity reaches 82.25 GW and is on track for 121.80 GW by 2031.
Which resource grows the fastest through 2031?
Solar leads with a 15.0% CAGR driven by YEKA auctions and C&I self-consumption.
Why do Turkish manufacturers sign corporate PPAs?
Ten-year solar PPAs near EUR 40 MWh beat grid tariffs and help exporters meet EU carbon rules.
What delays offshore wind projects?
Environmental assessments of up to 24 months and undefined licensing slow investment in Marmara and Black Sea zones.
How does grid congestion affect new projects?
Western substations operate near capacity, extending connection queues to three years and raising curtailment to 6% of wind output.
