Shoulder-fired Weapons Market Size & Share Analysis - Growth Trends And Forecast (2025 - 2030)

Global Shoulder-fired Weapons Market Trends and Insights

Intensifying Asymmetric Warfare Driving Demand for Portable Anti-Armor

Irregular forces, urban militias, and small expeditionary platoons increasingly face main battle tanks inside narrow streets and rugged valleys. Since 2024, global acquisitions of next-generation anti-tank missiles rose 37%, spearheaded by Saab’s fourfold boost to NLAW output and Lockheed Martin’s 2.5-times increase in Javelin shipments. Programmable tandem warheads, reduced minimum-range fuzes, and soft-launch motors allow dismounted squads to defeat reactive armor without exposing themselves to backblast. The shoulder-fired weapons market, therefore, benefits from every frontline that relies on infantry over heavy formations.

Accelerated Defense Modernization Programs Driven by Territorial Disputes Worldwide

Rising sovereignty concerns move parliaments to allocate larger capital budgets for quick-reaction firepower. Asia-Pacific defense outlays climbed to USD 411 billion in 2023, with Japan procuring 300 Carl-Gustaf launchers for 2025 delivery and India perfecting its man-portable ATGM. Similar trajectories appear in Northern Europe, where Finland and Sweden revamp Arctic brigades, and in the Gulf, where lightweight launchers complement layered missile shields. Long-term industrial plans bundle seeker production with domestic final assembly, pulling electronics firms into the shoulder-fired weapons market while anchoring supply chains close to end-users.

Geopolitical Conflicts Triggering Rapid Replenishment of Depleted Shoulder-Launched Inventories

The Russia-Ukraine war consumed thousands of missiles in months, draining NATO stockpiles. Washington shipped nearly one-third of its Javelin inventory overseas, compelling annual capacity to rise from 1,000 to 2,500 rounds. Saab raised NLAW throughput to 400,000 units per year, and RTX won a USD 139 million Stinger components contract that runs until 2027. Similar replenishment drives appear in Poland, the United Kingdom, and the Baltic states. Faster procurement cycles shorten research timelines, send multi-year funding to firms, and lift the overall shoulder-fired weapons market trajectory by an estimated +1.2 percentage points on the five-year CAGR.

Rising Need for Cost-Effective MANPADS in Global Counter-UAV Missions

Uncrewed aerial vehicles now range from micro-quadcopters to jet-powered drones. Traditional surface-to-air missile batteries struggle to match their low cost. Modern MANPADS with imaging-infrared seekers and proximity fuzes close that gap for a fraction of the price. Poland’s Piorun system scored high shoot-down rates in Ukraine and secured a 100-launcher export to Estonia. The US Army guides an extended-range Stinger upgrade that uses an improved motor to reach small drones at 6 km. Homeland security agencies test similar kits for refinery and airport defense, deepening civilian demand for the shoulder-fired weapons market.^{[1]US Department of Homeland Security, “Counter-UAS Pilot Programs,” dhs.gov}

Stringent ITAR and MTCR Export Controls Limiting Market Access

The US Munitions List and the Missile Technology Control Regime restrict the transfer of shoulder-launched missiles and seeker electronics. Exporters must secure end-user certificates, delay lead times, and raise compliance costs. Buyers not aligned with NATO often shift toward suppliers in China or opt for simpler recoilless rifles, shaving 0.7 percentage points from baseline growth in the shoulder-fired weapons market.

Rising Anti-Armor Drone Swarms Reducing Demand for Short-Range ATGMs

Loitering munitions such as Israel Aerospace Industries’ Rotem Alpha or Teledyne FLIR’s Rogue 1 attack armor at a lower cost per kill and keep operators farther from counter-fire. Russian forces demonstrated quadcopters firing Fagot missiles, proving feasibility. Budget reallocations toward drone arsenals can displace procurement of shoulder-launched missiles, subtracting roughly 0.9 percentage points from forecast CAGR.

Segment Analysis

By Technology: Guided Systems Extend Precision Reach

Guided solutions generated USD 7.19 billion in revenue during 2025, representing 69.45% of the shoulder-fired weapons market. Integration of compact imaging seekers and inertial navigation chips, once exclusive to larger missiles, allows infantry to defeat moving armor from outside return-fire range. The shoulder-fired weapons market size for unguided systems will grow at a 7.89% CAGR trajectory. South Korea’s Raybolt block upgrade blends a fiber-optic data-link with a motor capable of 5 km standoffs, showing how indigenous R&D narrows technology gaps. Unguided rockets still appeal where cost trumps accuracy. Yet, their share shrinks yearly because new soft-launch designs and programmable fuzes make guided rounds safer in tight urban alleys and better against reactive armor.

Rising adoption of soldier-worn thermal sights has further tilted procurement toward guided profiles. Cloud-based training aides now shorten operator qualification to days, not months, enabling conscripts to fire advanced missiles effectively during their first deployment cycles. The switchover accelerates as production volumes rise and unit prices fall. Overall, competitive differentiation moves from propulsion hardware to software-defined seekers, supplying fertile ground for smaller electro-optics firms to enter the shoulder-fired weapons market.

Note: Segment shares of all individual segments available upon report purchase

By Weapon Type: ATGMs Anchor Revenue, MANPADS Pace Growth

Anti-tank guided missile launchers represented 35.51% of the shoulder-fired weapons market share. Their sustained appeal stems from proven lethality against armored columns, as in Ukraine. The category receives continuous block upgrades: Javelin’s lightweight CLU and warhead refresh land in US formations by 2025, breakingdefense.com. Though smaller in 2025, MANPADS will post the highest segment CAGR of 8.72%, buoyed by drone threats and the need for cost-effective dome defenses around forward bases. Estonia’s large Piorun framework deal underlines European appetite for modern shoulder-fired air-defense tools.

Recoilless rifles enjoy renewed interest because new rounds give them anti-structure punch without breaching treaties. The US Army’s USD 16 million Carl-Gustaf M4 order validates this trend.^{[2]Source: Saab AB, “Saab Doubles NLAW Production,” saab.com} RPGs and SLAW categories maintain relevance in budget-constrained forces but lose relative growth to smarter systems. The shoulder-fired weapons market, therefore, tilts toward multi-mission payloads, modular launch tubes, and electronic fuze programming within a single family of launchers.

By Range: Long-Range Uptick Challenges Short-Range Dominance

Short-range models, under 500m, delivered 40.82% of the shoulder-fired weapons market size in 2025. They dominate dismounted patrol engagements where line-of-sight distances are compressed. Yet longer-range innovations are closing the gap. South Korea's extended Raybolt and Israel's Spike SR upgrade cross the 2 km threshold while remaining man-portable, fostering a 7.86% CAGR for long-range systems through 2030. Medium-range categories balance portability and standoff but face overlap as modular tubes accept booster cartridges to alter reach in the field.

Lightweight carbon-fiber launch canisters and high-energy propellants have cut overall carriage weight by 20% since 2022, allowing long-range shots without sacrificing patrol endurance. As more armies demand engagements beyond reactive armor's reach, the shoulder-fired weapons market gradually equalizes revenue across all range bands. Urban doctrine requires ultra-short engagement windows, so soft-launch and reduced back-blast designs keep short-range systems integral to clearing operations.

Note: Segment shares of all individual segments available upon report purchase

By Projectile Component: Fire-Control Electronics Drive New Value

Launchers and tubes accounted for 54.27% of the shoulder-fired weapons market. Historically, they absorbed the largest share because procurement programs buy the tube once and reorder missiles later. In contrast, fire-control and sighting sub-systems will grow 9.17% annually as armies retrofit legacy launchers. Smart Shooter’s SMASH overlay, tested by Israeli forces, turns a standard optical rifle sight into an algorithm-driven fire-control system that locks onto moving targets and times bolt release. Saab’s FCD 558, combined with programmable HE 448 rounds, lets an operator choose point-detonate, airburst, or delay modes seconds before firing.

As sensors age faster than steel tubes, militaries budget recurring upgrades for clips-on thermal imagers and wireless data-links, creating an annuity stream within the shoulder-fired weapons market. Projectiles remain significant because every training cycle and live operation consumes missiles, but electronics now command higher margins and innovation intensity.

By End-User: Army Dominance, Homeland-Security Upside

Army formations procured around 55.78% of the shoulder-fired weapons market size. Brigade combat teams rotate through contested zones more often and must replenish stock after each live-fire exercise. Special forces account for a smaller slice yet set performance benchmarks, pulling the market toward lighter, multi-role tubes under 7 kg, such as the Carl-Gustaf M4. Homeland security and law enforcement bodies will post the highest CAGR at 8.96% as border patrols confront drone incursions. The US Department of Homeland Security’s open trials of kinetic C-UAS options highlight a new user community traditionally absent from missile procurement.^{[3]US Department of Homeland Security, “Counter-UAS Pilot Programs,” dhs.gov}Navies and air forces focus on perimeter defense of coastal bases and airfields, where portable launchers fill gaps between fixed batteries and heavy SAMs. Their share remains stable but could rise if unmanned surface and aerial threats proliferate. Altogether, shifting mission demands broaden the addressable user base, keeping the shoulder-fired weapons market on a steady upward trajectory.

Geography Analysis

Asia-Pacific generated USD 2.70 billion, equal to 32.47% of 2025 global revenue, and remains the largest regional slice of the shoulder-fired weapons market. Territorial disputes in the South China Sea and the Himalayan frontier push governments to equip infantry with credible anti-armor deterrents. Japan’s 2025 Carl-Gustaf order modernizes an inventory fielded over four decades ago. The Philippines seeks Javelins while integrating BrahMos shore-based missiles to discourage gray-zone incursions. India’s MPATGM test flights, featuring day/night imaging and top-attack profiles, signal a maturing domestic supply chain.^{[4]Ministry of Defence India, “Successful MPATGM Trials,” mod.gov.in} These events suggest a durable requirement for portable precision weapons and sustain a pipeline of regional co-production deals.

North America maintains a strong but evolving demand. After large transfers to Ukraine, the United States must restore Javelin, Stinger, and tube-launched systems to mandated readiness levels, underpinning multi-year contracts with Lockheed Martin, RTX, and Northrop Grumman. A new Javelin lightweight launcher enters service in 2025, improving cold-weather reliability for Arctic units. Canada plans to augment its Carl-Gustaf holdings to align with NATO munition interchangeability goals. Consequently, the shoulder-fired weapons market in North America benefits from both replenishment and modernization.

Europe’s market complexion shifted the most after February 2024. NATO states emptied inventories early in the conflict, then issued urgent operational requirements. Saab reacted by scaling NLAW output; Rheinmetall partnered with MBDA to develop laser counter-drone pods, hinting at a layered defense ecosystem. The UK’s replacement program for Javelin seeks a next-generation round to bypass tank active-protection systems. Poland procured additional Javelins and pursues its home-grown Pirat ATGM to hedge supply risk. Europe, therefore, acts as both a volume buyer and a technology incubator.

The Middle East and Africa shoulder-fired weapons market will rise at a 9.61% CAGR to 2030. Israel’s USD 5.2 billion umbrella contract for Iron Dome, David’s Sling, and Iron Beam underscores regional willingness to invest in layered air defense. Turkey’s Roketsan demonstrated the Karaok missile’s 50 m “dive” kill profile, proving domestic innovation capacity and supporting export pitches to Gulf clients. African demand is varied: while established suppliers face export-control delays, Chinese firms establish showrooms in West Africa, bundling armored vehicles with QN-202 launchers. These dynamics suggest sustained growth on the southern arc.

Latin America represents a smaller opportunity but shows episodic spikes, driven by border tensions and anti-crime operations. Chile evaluated Spike SR rounds for mountain infantry, while Brazil’s army complements its Astros II MLRS with Alacrán disposable anti-structure launchers. Budget headwinds temper large acquisitions, yet fleet rationalization plans could convert stockpiled legacy RPGs to newer recoilless rifles.