Small Arms Market Size & Share Analysis - Growth Trends And Forecast (2025 - 2030)

Global Small Arms Market Trends and Insights

Increased Defense Procurement from Modernization Programs

Modernization budgets are pivoting toward 6.8 mm systems that defeat advanced body armor, with the US Army allocating USD 367.29 million to the Next Generation Squad Weapon (NGSW) line item in FY 2025. The UK’s Project Grayburn aims to replace the SA80 series with the Knight’s Armament KS-1 rifle and associated suppressors, reinforcing NATO interoperability goals. Sweden’s emergency December 2024 order for 15,000 Colt M4 rifles shows how readiness gaps can accelerate foreign military sales despite local industry ambitions.^{[1]Army Recognition, “Sweden orders 15,000 M4 rifles,” armyrecognition.com} Singapore mirrored this urgency by selecting the Colt IAR6940E-SG to replace the 40-year-old Ultimax 100, putting reliability ahead of legacy loyalty. Europe’s Act in Support of Ammunition Production injects EUR 500 million (USD 579.97 million) to scale components output, indirectly lifting small-arms procurement budgets. These programs sustain a robust contract pipeline for the small arms market well into the next decade.

Growing Civilian Demand for Personal-Protection Firearms

Self-defense surpassed hunting as the leading reason for US gun ownership in 2024, underscoring the transition to “Gun Culture 2.0”. Biofire’s USD 1,499 biometric pistol, integrating fingerprint and facial recognition, demonstrates how safety features can coexist with rapid accessibility for home defense. The National Shooting Sports Foundation counted 34.4 million US target-shooting participants in 2024, with modern sporting-rifle owners visiting ranges more often than traditional-firearm users. The firearms industry’s overall economic impact has risen 379% since 2008, supplying local tax revenues that temper political pushback. These factors collectively reinforce resilient retail demand within the small arms market even during military spending plateaus.

Surge in Competitive Shooting and Hunting Sports Memberships

National shooting federations in the United States, Germany, and France logged membership gains above 15% in 2024, driven by media coverage of precision-rifle competitions and action-pistol leagues. European armed forces pistol tenders now stipulate competition-grade accuracy, blending sporting and tactical requirements and raising the performance bar for service weapons. Manufacturers respond by offering adjustable gas blocks, flat-faced triggers, and modular chassis that migrate from competition lines to duty platforms. Precision-rifle events such as the International Precision Rifle Federation championships foster aftermarket demand for barrels, optics, and ballistic computers, fueling ancillary revenue. Hunting license data in Scandinavia and Canada also show an uptick in youth participation, suggesting long-term equipment replacement cycles. Together, these trends create a virtuous loop of innovation and volume expansion for the small arms market.

Shift Toward Lightweight, Modular Firearm Platforms

Composite receivers, titanium bolts, and polymer-cased ammunition with impact strength above 10 ft-lb/in are trimming carried weight without sacrificing durability. The HK433 PDW unveiled at Enforce Tac 2025 employs a monolithic upper with M-LOK slots and an adjustable gas system, enabling suppressed or unsuppressed fire without reliability loss. NATO’s Soldier Weapon Systems capability group is field-testing common lower receivers that accept barrels from 10.5 inches to 20 inches, letting commanders tailor weapons in theater rather than procure new inventory. Dual-magazine-tube shotguns that allow immediate ammo selection illustrate how modularity extends beyond rifles to specialist platforms. Europe’s SAAT project, backed by EUR 8.3 million (USD 9.63 million), pursues a common ammunition architecture to synchronize member-state production while preserving proprietary advantages. As a result, modularity has shifted from a niche marketing point to a baseline requirement in the small arms market.

Stricter End-Use Monitoring and Export Control Regulations

The US Commerce Department’s April 2024 rule introduced new Export Control Classification Numbers for semi-automatic rifles and handguns, subjecting previously ITAR-controlled items to dual-track oversight.^{[2]Federal Register, “Amendments to the Export Administration Regulations,” federalregister.gov} BIS now fields more enforcement officers than the State Department’s DDTC, elevating audit frequency and penalty risk for exporters. Small manufacturers face steep legal bills to navigate licenses, Technical Assistance Agreements, and post-shipment verifications, inflating per-unit compliance costs. European suppliers encounter parallel hurdles as the EU rolls out its Firearms Focal Points network, coordinating customs databases to flag diversion risks at borders. Extended license-processing times delay contract execution, forcing foreign buyers to insert penalty clauses that drive up bid prices. These frictions temper near-term export growth within the small arms market even as demand remains robust.

Reduced Financing Due to ESG-Aligned Divestment Trends

Institutional investors managing USD 4.8 trillion have adopted responsible firearms principles, pressuring publicly listed gun makers’ access to low-cost capital. Though empirical studies show muted valuation impact, executives now depend more on private credit and strategic investors. Smith & Wesson’s relocation decision cited regulatory hostility in Massachusetts, illustrating how ESG sentiment can influence plant geography.

Segment Analysis

By Type: Rifles Drive Military Modernization

Rifles accounted for 32.56% revenue in 2024, and the segment is forecast to grow at a 5.10% CAGR through 2030, reflecting the broad replacement of M4-family weapons with 6.8 mm platforms. Within the small arms market size for rifles, XM7 adoption commands the largest budget allocation in the current Pentagon spending cycle. The UK selection of the Knight’s Armament KS-1 with a short-stroke piston improves reliability under maritime conditions, while Sweden’s emergency M4 order shows how operational urgency overrides domestic sourcing debates. Modular sniper systems like Barrett’s MRAD address demand for multi-caliber precision and bolster export prospects.

Machine guns, led by the .338 Norma Lightweight Medium Machine Gun (LMMG) prototype, illustrate the small arms market pivot toward extended reach without the weight penalty of legacy 7.62 mm platforms. Pistols and revolvers remain indispensable for law-enforcement sidearms, with Smith & Wesson leveraging polymer-frame designs that cut ounces while adding accessory rails. Shotguns find niches in breaching and riot-control roles, whereas modular weapon architectures permit common lower receivers to accept rifle, carbine, and personal-defense upper assemblies, driving lifecycle cost savings.

Note: Segment shares of all individual segments available upon report purchase

By Caliber: 6.8 mm Emerges as Next-Generation Standard

Due to entrenched inventories across NATO, the 5.56 mm cartridge retained 24.98% revenue in 2024. Yet the 6.8 mm category is on track for a 7.22% CAGR, the fastest in the dataset, elevating its share in the small arms market by the decade's end. SIG SAUER’s hybrid-case design withstands higher chamber pressures, supplying ballistic energy advantages over legacy rounds. NATO partners weigh whether to adopt the US round or fund indigenous programs such as Europe’s SAAT project, which earmarks EUR 8.3 million (USD 9.63 million) to harmonize a continental standard.

The 7.62 mm segment maintains relevance for designated marksman and medium-machine gun roles, offering better barrier penetration than intermediate calibers. Handgun-centric 9 mm ammo dominates police and civilian carry because of manageable recoil and ease of global sourcing. Heavy-caliber 12.7 mm rounds remain integral for anti-materiel missions and vehicle-mounted platforms.

By Operation: Fully Automatic Systems Gain Momentum

Semi-automatic actions controlled 37.80% revenue in 2024 as civilian and police procurement favors accuracy and regulatory compliance. However, fully automatic systems will lead segment growth at a 5.81% CAGR. Adoption is propelled by doctrinal shifts emphasizing high-volume suppressive fire at the squad level. Patent filings for electromechanical sear assemblies with dual-actuator failsafes underscore a safety-first path to higher cyclic rates. Manual bolt-action and pump designs persist in precision shooting, sniper training, and less-lethal crowd control where deliberate fire matters.

Trade-compliant “aided reset” triggers blur lines between semi-auto and full-auto performance, granting shooters improved split times while evading restrictive classifications. Such features appeal to special-operations units and competition shooters, reinforcing cross-segment technology spillovers within the small arms market.

Note: Segment shares of all individual segments available upon report purchase

By End User: Civil and Law Enforcement Accelerates

Military organizations still command 53.47% of the 2024 demand; however, civil and law-enforcement purchases are growing faster at 5.44% CAGR as societal security concerns increase gun ownership. The small arms market size for the civil segment is poised to close the gap, underpinned by concealed-carry reciprocity and female first-time buyers. Police forces now procure red-dot-ready pistols, reflecting tactical doctrines imported from special operations.

Hunting and sporting activities add incremental volume. Competitive shooters frequently upgrade barrels and triggers, creating a secondary aftermarket revenue stream. Manufacturers design dual-use platforms that migrate from barracks to retail shelves, maximizing tooling ROI.

Geography Analysis

North America retained the largest revenue base at 36.71% in 2024, fueled by expansive defense budgets and the world’s most active civilian firearms population. Yet Asia-Pacific will post the fastest regional CAGR at 5.58%, driven by India’s 20% annual defense-investment growth outlook through 2029.^{[3]Asia Pacific Defence Reporter, “India forecasts 20% defense sector growth,” asiapacificdefencereporter.com} India delivered its first indigenous submachine guns in October 2024, signaling industrial maturation. Australia and Japan similarly channel procurement toward local assembly lines to hedge geopolitical risk.

Europe confronts the dual challenge of replenishing stocks sent to Ukraine and re-arming its brigades. The EU committed EUR 500 million (USD 579.97 million) to lift artillery-shell production to 2 million units by 2026, indirectly benefiting small-arms propellant suppliers. The Middle East and Africa spend heavily on modern infantry kits, crowned by Saudi Arabia’s USD 100 billion April 2025 package with the United States. South America shows steadier growth as security forces modernize sidearms and carbines to counter organized crime.