Middle East And Africa Buy Now Pay Later Services Market Size & Share Analysis - Growth Trends And Forecast (2025 - 2030)

Middle East And Africa Buy Now Pay Later Services Market Trends and Insights

Regulatory Sandboxes & Licensing in KSA & UAE Catalysing BNPL Scale

The Saudi Central Bank issued detailed BNPL rules in December 2023 that formalised capital thresholds and consumer safeguards, prompting investors to fund scale-ups and helping players such as Tamara secure full consumer-finance licences in March 2025. The Central Bank of the UAE followed with revised Finance Companies Regulation in January 2025, allowing Restricted Licence Finance Companies to offer short-term instalment products under clear prudential oversight^{[1]Central Bank of the UAE, “Amended Finance Companies Regulation,” cbuae.gov.ae}. These frameworks anchor long-term confidence, create disciplined entry paths for newcomers, and encourage cross-border passporting across the wider GCC. The net effect is a maturing credit alternative that attracts partnerships with banks and global payment processors, driving broader merchant acceptance and deeper consumer trust.

Smartphone Penetration in GCC Fuelling App-based Checkout

Mobile subscriptions exceed population totals in most GCC states, and this ubiquity lets BNPL apps embed directly into retail journeys. Providers optimise for one-tap approval, personalised instalment schedules and loyalty integration, shrinking checkout friction and lifting merchant conversion. Continuous 5G rollout expands bandwidth for richer app experiences, while biometric ID lets new users onboard in minutes. The result is a feedback loop: as mobile commerce climbs, BNPL volumes soar, which in turn nudges more merchants to enable the option across both web and store environments.

Youth-Dominated Demographics Driving Micro-ticket E-commerce Credit

Nearly 60% of the region’s population is under 30. Surveys show that over half of Gen Z shoppers in the UAE already prefer digital payments, including instalment options^{[2]Emirates NBD, “Digital Banking Investment Updates,” emiratesnbd.com}. Younger cohorts value budget control and dislike revolving credit; BNPL’s transparent schedule resonates strongly. Providers respond with lower ticket-size offers, gamified repayment reminders, and social-media-driven referral programs that capture peer influence. As this generation advances in earning power, their entrenched digital habits are expected to shift overall payment preference definitively toward BNPL.

Merchant Conversion Gains in Fashion & Electronics Boosting Adoption

Retailers that embed BNPL routinely report lower cart abandonment and higher average order value, especially for discretionary categories with mid-range price points. Fashion platforms showcase instalment messaging early in the browsing journey, turning browsers into committed purchasers. Electronics chains deploy QR-based in-store enrolment to match online flexibility. Large merchants now negotiate revenue-share agreements with BNPL partners, exchanging data insights and co-marketing benefits that differentiate the shopping experience.

Rising Default Rates amid Inflation in Africa

Currency depreciation and higher food prices reduce disposable income, straining borrowers’ repayment capacity. Nigerian providers report elevated delinquencies, especially among first-time borrowers^{[3]Central Bank of Nigeria, “Operational Guidelines for Open Banking,” cbn.gov.ng}. Firms recalibrate scorecards by incorporating macro indicators and sector exposures, which slows approval speed and dampens customer acquisition. Some shift toward secured offers, such as smartphone-backed loans, to preserve asset recovery options. Over time, inflation moderation and richer credit-bureau data should restore growth momentum, but the near-term effect trims overall expansion.

Tighter Compliance Costs under 2024 SAMA / UAE Rules

Both regulators now mandate granular disclosure, transaction monitoring, and localisation of key functions. Saudi guidelines cap individual BNPL limits at SAR 5,000 (USD 1,332) and set staged Saudisation quotas. Compliance teams, AML systems, and Islamic-finance audits raise fixed costs, particularly for cross-border entrants that lack local entities. Larger banks can absorb the burden more easily, giving them an advantage in rolling out white-label instalment services. Smaller fintechs either consolidate or partner with licensed players, reducing market fragmentation but tempering immediate innovation velocity.

Segment Analysis

By Channel: Online Dominance Faces In-store Challenge

Online transactions represented 78.7% of the Middle East and Africa BNPL market share in 2024, supported by frictionless web and in-app integration that aligns with the e-commerce boom. Merchants embrace dynamic instalment messaging to trim abandonment, while gateway providers bundle BNPL buttons alongside cards and wallets. Cross-border platforms funnel regional shoppers onto GCC websites, extending reach for local BNPL offers. The integration of real-time open-banking data further streamlines online risk checks, strengthening approval rates without manual review.

Point-of-sale solutions are projected to grow at 20.2% CAGR, closing the gap as retailers seek seamless omnichannel experiences. Near-field communication, QR codes, and cloud-based POS systems now let sales associates trigger BNPL approvals in seconds. Partnerships such as Checkout.com with Tabby embed the option directly into POS terminals, unlocking physical-store categories like furniture and groceries. As a result, the Middle East and Africa BNPL market size for in-store transactions is expected to multiply through 2030, reflecting consumer demand for payment consistency across all shopping contexts.

By End-Use Industry: Fashion Leads While Healthcare Accelerates

Fashion and apparel accounted for 33.4% of the Middle East and Africa BNPL market size in 2024, benefiting from frequent purchase cycles and aspirational buyers. Retailers leverage instalments to upsell premium lines and encourage multi-item baskets, while BNPL apps feature fashion-centric discovery feeds that channel traffic back to merchant sites. Seasonal campaigns around Ramadan and Black Friday amplify volumes, making fashion the bellwether category for new feature rollouts such as instant refunds on returns.

Healthcare and wellness spend is forecast to grow fastest at 22.1% CAGR as consumers embrace instalments for elective surgery, dental work, and preventive packages. Saudi Arabia’s push to develop medical tourism under Vision 2030 widens the addressable demand. Providers tailor longer-tenure plans that fit treatment schedules and partner with clinics for on-site sign-ups. These dynamics position healthcare to narrow the volume gap with fashion by decade-end and diversify revenue beyond discretionary retail.

By Age Group: Millennials Lead While Gen Z Accelerates

Millennials held 44.8% of the Middle East and Africa BNPL market share in 2024. Their peak earning years and comfort with managing app-based finances underpin large ticket sizes across electronics, travel, and home improvement. Providers target this cohort with budgeting dashboards and loyalty cash-backs that mirror card programs, reinforcing repeat use.

Generation Z, with a projected 23.7% CAGR, is set to reshape product design. This cohort values fast onboarding and social validation, prompting features like in-app influencer content and group payment splitting. As their spending power rises, the Middle East and Africa BNPL market size attributable to Gen Z purchases is expected to rival that of millennials, compelling merchants to optimise checkout flows for mobile-native journeys.

By Provider: Fintechs Dominate While Banks Accelerate

Fintechs controlled a 71.9% share in 2024 thanks to first-mover scale, agile underwriting, and brand resonance with younger shoppers. Tabby and Tamara have turned funding rounds into nationwide merchant networks and super-app roadmaps that now include debit products and subscription management. Their rapid product cycles set user-experience benchmarks that incumbents must match.

Banks are catching up, leveraging core deposit franchises and regulatory familiarity to roll out instalment options inside mobile-banking apps. With an expected 19.5% CAGR, their share could double by 2030 as they bundle BNPL with salary accounts and credit-card loyalty. White-label partnerships allow smaller lenders to launch quickly, while larger groups build proprietary orchestration engines that feed risk data into existing credit bureaus.

Note: Segment shares of all individual segments are available upon report purchase

Geography Analysis

Saudi Arabia commanded 22.6% of the Middle East and Africa BNPL market share in 2024, anchored by strict yet enabling oversight from the Saudi Central Bank. Vision 2030’s goal of 70% cashless payments by 2025 turbo-charges adoption across retail, travel, and public-service portals. Tamara’s full licence and Tabby’s planned IPO on the Saudi Exchange signal confidence in sustained domestic scale. Tourism diversification adds incremental demand as visitors use BNPL for accommodations and leisure packages.

The UAE ranks second, supported by a digital economy growing 12.3% annually. Finance-company rule changes in 2025 legitimise stand-alone BNPL players, while incumbent banks such as Emirates NBD invest in fintech units to co-create instalment engines. Dubai’s e-commerce sellers increasingly mandate at least one BNPL option, and cross-border shoppers from Asia tap UAE-issued BNPL accounts for duty-free purchases, widening transaction pools.

Nigeria leads African growth with a 19.8% CAGR outlook. Open-banking guidelines enable providers to fetch account and salary data for real-time assessments. Telco-powered wallets give BNPL firms low-cost distribution channels, yet inflation volatility raises provisioning costs that temper near-term profitability. South Africa follows with expanding uptake via Payflex and PayJustNow, particularly in home improvement and education verticals. Egypt’s cash-dominant culture slows uptake, but regulatory encouragement of fintech sandboxes is improving visibility.