Market Overview
| Study Period | 2019 - 2030 |
|---|---|
| Market Size (2025) | USD 0.64 Trillion |
| Market Size (2030) | USD 1.43 Trillion |
| Growth Rate (2025 - 2030) | 17.45% CAGR |
| Fastest Growing Market | Asia Pacific |
| Largest Market | Asia Pacific |
| Market Concentration | Medium |
Major Players
*Disclaimer: Major Players sorted in no particular order Image © Mordor Intelligence. Reuse requires attribution under CC BY 4.0. |
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Buy Now Pay Later Services Market Analysis by Mordor Intelligence
The Buy Now Pay Later Services Market size is estimated at USD 0.64 trillion in 2025, and is expected to reach USD 1.43 trillion by 2030, at a CAGR of 17.45% during the forecast period (2025-2030).
Surging embedded-credit APIs, smartphone super-apps, and real-time bureau data streams underpin this acceleration, while scale players widen merchant acceptance across discretionary and essential spend categories. Asia-Pacific anchors leadership on both volume and velocity, supported by large underbanked populations and a regulatory push for cashless ecosystems. Healthcare financing, point-of-sale (POS) integrations, and Sharia-compliant models broaden use cases, whereas European late-fee caps and higher global funding costs compress provider margins. Competitive intensity skews toward fintechs, yet deposit-rich banks leverage trust, compliance readiness, and cheap capital to expand their stake in the BNPL market.
Key Report Takeaways
- By channel, the online segment captured 65.2% of the BNPL market share in 2024, while in-store POS solutions are forecasted to expand at a 27.6% CAGR through 2030.
- By end-use industry, fashion & apparel led with 29.6% share of the buy now pay later market in 2024; healthcare & wellness is projected to advance at a 29.7% CAGR through 2030.
- By age group, Millennials accounted for 42.4% of the BNPL market size in 2024, while Generation Z is set to expand at 28.2% CAGR through 2030.
- By provider type, fintechs held 69.7% share of the BNPL market size in 2024; banks are set to record the fastest 25.8% CAGR to 2030.
- By geography, Asia-Pacific controlled 32.5% of the buy now pay later market share in 2024 and is expected to grow at 26.9% CAGR through 2030.
Global Buy Now Pay Later Services Market Trends and Insights
Drivers Impact Analysis
| Driver | (~) % Impact on CAGR Forecast | Geographic Relevance | Impact Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Global open-banking mandates boosting bank-fintech BNPL interoperability | +2.6% | Europe; UK; Australia; Singapore; North America spill-over | Medium term (2-4 years) |
| Islamic-compliant BNPL rollouts accelerating checkout adoption across GCC retail | +2.1% | Saudi Arabia; UAE; Qatar; Southeast Asia | Short term (≤ 2 years) |
| Real-time credit-bureau and open-banking data feeds enabling healthcare BNPL | +2.4% | North America; Europe; Australia | Medium term (2-4 years) |
| Smartphone super-apps mainstreaming micro-ticket BNPL for ride-hailing and food delivery | +2.3% | Asia-Pacific; South America | Short term (≤ 2 years) |
| Employers bundling earned-wage access with BNPL in payroll platforms, increasing repeat purchases among hourly workers | +1.9% | North America, Europe, Australia | Medium term (2-4 years) |
| Seamless BNPL button integration in livestream-commerce boosting average transaction values | +1.7% | China, Southeast Asia, expanding to North America | Short term (≤ 2 years) |
| Source: Mordor Intelligence | |||
Global open-banking mandates boosting bank-fintech BNPL interoperability
Saudi Arabia’s Open Banking Framework, fully operational in 2025, lets consumers share account data securely, creating 525 fintech opportunities by 2030[1]. Similar schemes in Australia and the UK let BNPL providers pull real-time balances, tighten underwriting, and embed checkout credit within regulated verticals. Project Nexus, spearheaded by the BIS, will interlink instant-payment systems in 2026, cutting cross-border settlement friction. Collectively, these mandates enhance reach, lower fraud, and accelerate cross-sector partnerships across the buy now pay later market.
Islamic-compliant BNPL rollouts accelerating checkout adoption across GCC retail
Sharia-aligned plans structured as Murabaha or Qard Hasan propelled users from 76,000 in 2020 to over 10 million by 2025 in Saudi Arabia. Tamara and Tabby achieved unicorn status, with GCC consumers citing 67% preference for Islamic finance when available. Qatar’s sandbox green-lit several BNPL players in 2024, while SAMA issued detailed late-fee disclosure rules in March 2025. Transparent terms enhance trust, boost conversion, and expand the BNPL market into faith-sensitive demographics.
Real-time credit-bureau and open-banking data feeds enabling healthcare BNPL
FICO’s 2025 scoring update captures BNPL payment histories, enriching thin-file borrower profiles. With 50% of U.S. patients facing USD 1,001–USD 5,000 bills, Mayo Clinic’s April 2025 pact with Affirm embeds installment options into patient portals. The CFPB barred medical-debt data from credit decisions in January 2025, making BNPL an attractive alternative for elective procedures[2]. Better data granularity lifts approvals and cements healthcare as a breakout vertical in the buy now pay later market.
Smartphone super-apps mainstreaming micro-ticket BNPL within ride-hailing and food delivery
Grab PayLater transactions surged 215% in 2024 as the super-app embedded split-pay for rides, meals, and groceries. WeChat Pay reports that 68% of users aged 18-35 have used its BNPL toggle, illustrating adoption in low-card-penetration economies. Micro-ticket financing lifts average order value and brings first-time credit to underbanked users, deepening the buy now pay later market.
Restraints Impact Analysis
| Restraint | (~) % Impact on CAGR Forecast | Geographic Relevance | Impact Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|
| EU Consumer Credit Directive late-fee caps squeezing BNPL margins | −1.3% | European Union; possible UK spill-over | Medium term (2-4 years) |
| Rising interest rates elevating securitization and funding costs | −1.4% | Global; pronounced in North America and Europe | Short term (≤ 2 years) |
| Escalating synthetic-identity fraud in fast-growing e-commerce markets inflating chargeback and collection costs for BNPL providers | −1.1% | Global, with higher impact in emerging markets | Medium term (2-4 years) |
| Currency volatility and high inflation in certain emerging markets widening funding-cost spreads and impairing BNPL profitability | −1.0% | South America, Southeast Asia, Africa | Short term (≤ 2 years) |
| Source: Mordor Intelligence | |||
EU Consumer Credit Directive late-fee caps squeezing BNPL margins
CCD2, effective 2026, extends consumer-credit scope to loans up to EUR 100,000 and caps APRs at 10% in the Netherlands, 18% in France, and 20% in Germany. Providers must run deeper affordability checks, lifting compliance spend by roughly 18% in the early years. Scale players can absorb the hit, but smaller firms may exit, nudging consolidation across the buy now pay later market.
Rising interest rates elevating securitization and funding costs
Affirm’s asset-backed-securities spreads widened 150 bps between 2022-2024. Deposit-funded banks win cost advantages and partner with fintechs, as seen in JPMorgan-Klarna’s February 2025 deal covering 900,000 U.S. merchants. Providers diversify into advertising and subscriptions to cushion margin squeeze, yet smaller players face greater survival pressure within the buy now pay later market.
Segment Analysis
By Channel: Omnichannel installments redefine checkout
The online segment at 65.2% share in 2024 anchors the Buy Now Pay Later services market size, yet in-store POS solutions clock a 27.6% CAGR through 2030. Retailers integrating QR or NFC split-pay buttons report a 30% upswing in conversion. Seamless links between e-commerce carts and in-aisle experiences align with 39% of shoppers who blend digital research and physical purchase.
Unified data lets providers furnish instant re-credit across channels, lowering cart abandonment and driving repeat use. As card-network tokenization simplifies terminal integration, the buy now pay later market will see rising physical retail penetration, bridging digital and brick-and-mortar journeys.
Note: Segment shares of all individual segments available upon report purchase
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By End-Use Industry: Healthcare & wellness outpaces discretionary spend
Fashion & apparel stays volume champion at 29.6% in 2024, yet healthcare & wellness expands fastest at 29.7% CAGR through 2030. Rising elective-procedure costs and high deductibles send patients toward transparent installment schedules. The Buy Now Pay Later services market size for healthcare procedures is slated to jump alongside payer integrations that embed offers into electronic health records.
As Affirm signs 130 medical merchants and FICO ingests repayment histories, approval rates climb, and default risk narrows. This accelerates segment diversification, balancing discretionary fashion cycles with essential care demand inside the buy now pay later market.
By Age Group: Digital natives drive structural demand
Millennials wield the largest wallet share at 42.4% in 2024, but Generation Z grows quickest at 28.2% CAGR by 2030, reflecting 71% mobile shopping preference. Gen Z averages USD 926 per installment plan, illustrating disciplined ticket sizes that keep delinquency risk modest.
Gamified repayment nudges and social-media rewards enhance loyalty. As Gen Z incomes rise, their lifetime contribution to the buy now pay later market extends well beyond entry-level transactions, reinforcing multiyear growth momentum.
By Provider: Banks gain muscle amid fintech leadership
Fintechs retain a 69.7% share in 2024, while banks grow at a 25.8% CAGR by embedding installments onto debit and card rails. Deposit funding yields cheaper capital and easier regulatory navigation.
Hybrid alliances flourish with issuers' license fintech tech-stacks while fintechs tap bank balance sheets. This mash-up enlarges capacity, expands consumer protections, and refines risk analytics, ultimately deepening the BNPL market.
Note: Segment shares of all individual segments available upon report purchase
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Geography Analysis
Asia-Pacific contributed 32.5% of 2024 revenue and races ahead at 26.9% CAGR. Super-apps like Grab and Lazada embed BNPL toggles in daily life, and Australia’s 2024 decision to fold BNPL into credit-law oversight raises trust without dampening the use. Countries such as Vietnam and Indonesia show triple-digit annual volume spikes, confirming a long runway for the buy now pay later market.
North America trails only in share, yet champions product innovation. The CFPB’s 2024 reclassification grants BNPL users card-equivalent dispute rights, favoring scale players with mature compliance. Use cases broaden into fuel and grocery, evidenced by a 40% surge in food-related BNPL transactions from 2023-2024, bolstering the region’s portion of the BNPL market.
Europe navigates CCD2 headwinds, but e-commerce appetite and instant-credit culture sustain demand. Providers tweak merchant fees and funding maturities to protect spreads under national APR caps[3]. Strategic processor tie-ups—Scalapay with Marqeta (2024)—enable agile adaptation, maintaining traction within the BNPL services market despite margin compression.
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Competitive Landscape
Klarna, Affirm, and Afterpay front the fintech cohort, yet banks such as JPMorgan Chase, Citi, and HSBC marshal capital scale to challenge incumbents. Klarna’s planned Q2 2025 IPO at roughly USD 15 billion aims to bankroll AI-driven risk engines and global expansion. Affirm’s diversified revenue—USD 1.204 billion interest income and USD 675 million merchant fees in 2024—shows resilience under rising rates.
White-space growth emerges in B2B trade finance; MODIFI’s USD 15 million raise in November 2024 underscores demand for cross-border SME installments. Fraud-mitigation partnerships led by the BNPL Association trimmed synthetic-ID losses by 23% in early 2025. Overall, the competitive field exhibits moderate fragmentation, with technology, compliance mastery, and vertical focus determining share shifts inside the BNPL services market.
Buy Now Pay Later Services Industry Leaders
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Klarna AB
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Afterpay Ltd (Block Inc.)
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Affirm Holdings Inc.
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PayPal Holdings Inc.
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Zip Co Ltd
- *Disclaimer: Major Players sorted in no particular order
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Recent Industry Developments
- March 2025: Affirm pivots to direct-to-consumer after Walmart exclusivity loss.
- March 2025: Smartpay and Chubb launch Japan’s first embedded insurance within BNPL.
- February 2025: JPMorgan Chase partners with Klarna to extend BNPL to 900,000 U.S. merchants.
- November 2024: MODIFI secures USD 15 million to scale B2B BNPL in Asia.
Research Methodology Framework and Report Scope
Market Definitions and Key Coverage
Our study defines the global buy-now-pay-later (BNPL) services market as the total gross merchandise value of consumer purchases settled through short-term, interest-free or low-interest installment plans that are issued at checkout, both online and in store, and settled directly by specialized fintechs or licensed banks. This definition embraces every retail and service vertical, from fashion to elective healthcare, wherever the payment promise is split into four or more scheduled installments.
Exclusions include revolving credit cards, payroll-linked salary advances, traditional installment loans exceeding three years, and pure B2B invoice-financing products, which sit outside our scope.
Segmentation Overview
- By Channel
- Online
- Point-of-Sale (In-store)
- By End-Use Industry
- Consumer Electronics
- Fashion & Apparel
- Healthcare & Wellness
- Home Improvement
- Travel & Leisure
- Media & Entertainment
- Other End-Use Industries
- By Age Group
- Generation Z (18-28 Years)
- Millennials (29-44 Years)
- Generation X (45-60 Years)
- Baby Boomers (61-79 Years)
- Silent Generation (80 Years and Above)
- By Provider
- Fintechs
- Banks
- Others
- By Region
- North America
- United States
- Canada
- Mexico
- South America
- Brazil
- Argentina
- Chile
- Peru
- Rest of South America
- Europe
- United Kingdom
- Germany
- France
- Spain
- Italy
- Benelux (Belgium, Netherlands, and Luxembourg)
- Nordics (Sweden, Norway, Denmark, Finland, and Iceland)
- Rest of Europe
- Asia-Pacific
- China
- India
- Japan
- South Korea
- Australia
- South-East Asia (Singapore, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam, and Philippines)
- Rest of Asia-Pacific
- Middle East and Africa
- United Arab Emirates
- Saudi Arabia
- South Africa
- Nigeria
- Rest of Middle East and Africa
- North America
Detailed Research Methodology and Data Validation
Primary Research
Mordor analysts spoke with BNPL executives, retail finance heads, payment-gateway integrators, and consumer-protection officials across North America, Europe, the Gulf, and Asia-Pacific. These interviews validated penetration ratios, average ticket sizes, and regulatory assumptions that were only partially visible in documents.
Desk Research
We began with payment statistics from central banks and regulators such as the Federal Reserve, the European Banking Authority, and the Reserve Bank of Australia, then layered consumer-finance surveys issued by the CFPB and the World Bank. Trade bodies including the Electronic Transactions Association and ecommerce chambers supplied channel-level penetration clues, while customs data helped spot point-of-sale roll-outs across emerging markets. Company filings, IPO prospectuses, and investor decks were screened through D&B Hoovers and Dow Jones Factiva to capture merchant fees, loss rates, and late-fee policies. These publicly available and paid-database insights formed the documentary backbone; many additional secondary sources were referenced for data checks and narrative clarity.
Market-Sizing & Forecasting
We apply a top-down reconstruction of BNPL-eligible spend. Retail and services turnover by country is multiplied by digital-checkout share and then by verified BNPL penetration to yield 2024 baselines. Select bottom-up roll-ups of provider volumes in the United States, Australia, and India serve as plausibility guardrails before figures are finalized. Key model variables include smartphone adoption, merchant discount rates, default ratios, regulatory fee caps, and average installment length; shifts in these levers guide scenario testing. Forecasts to 2030 rely on multivariate regressions blended with ARIMA smoothing, with coefficient ranges vetted by our primary-research panel. Gap pockets in bottom-up data are filled through region-specific ASP × volume heuristics.
Data Validation & Update Cycle
Outputs face multi-layer variance checks, peer review, and senior sign-off. Models refresh each year, yet interim recalculations are triggered by material events, for example, a new interchange cap or a major provider exit, so clients receive the latest vetted baseline before every delivery.
Why Mordor's Buy Now Pay Later (BNPL) Market Baseline Commands Reliability
Published estimates often diverge because firms pick different value bases, channels, and refresh rhythms.
Key gap drivers include whether the figure tracks gross transaction value or provider revenue, the inclusion of in-store finance, and how quickly new verticals such as healthcare are folded in. Mordor's disciplined scope, yearly refresh, and dual-track validation narrow these gaps.
Benchmark comparison
| Market Size | Anonymized source | Primary gap driver |
|---|---|---|
| USD 0.64 Trn (2025) | Mordor Intelligence | |
| USD 11.87 Bn (2025) | Global Consultancy A | Measures provider fee income only and omits in-store programs |
| USD 37.19 Bn (2024) | Industry Consultancy B | Limits scope to online retail and reports revenue, not merchandise value |
Taken together, the comparison shows that once differences in value basis, channel mix, and update cadence are neutralized, Mordor's balanced, transparent approach offers decision-makers the most reproducible starting point.
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Key Questions Answered in the Report
What is the forecast growth rate of the buy now pay later market
The buy now pay later market is expected to expand at a 17.45% CAGR between 2025 and 2030.
Which segment grows fastest within the buy now pay later market?
Healthcare & wellness shows the highest CAGR at 29.7% through 2030, driven by rising out-of-pocket medical expenses.
How will EU regulation influence BNPL profitability?
CCD2 will cap APRs and mandate rigorous credit checks, increasing compliance costs by nearly one-fifth and squeezing provider margins in Europe.
Why are banks entering the BNPL market aggressively?
Banks possess low-cost deposit funding and strong compliance systems, allowing competitive pricing and faster regulatory approval.
What role do super-apps play in BNPL expansion?
Super-apps embed micro-ticket installments into routine services like ride-hailing, boosting transaction frequency and user acquisition in emerging markets.
How is synthetic-identity fraud being addressed?
Industry-wide fraud-intelligence networks share risk signals, cutting synthetic-ID losses by about 23% among participating BNPL providers.
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