Middle East Africa Coffee Market Size & Share Analysis - Growth Trends And Forecast (2025 - 2030)

Segment Analysis

By Product Type: Whole Bean Anchors Tradition, RTD Captures Convenience

In 2024, Whole Bean coffee held 43.22% of the market, driven by Turkey's traditional cezve brewing and the UAE's demand for premium single-origin beans. Specialty roasters like RAW Coffee Company and Ludlow Coffee Group cater to UAE consumers willing to pay USD 20 to USD 40 per kilogram for traceable Ethiopian and Kenyan beans. Lavazza's launch of the Tibali brewing system in 2024, designed for whole-bean extraction, highlights its appeal to affluent consumers valuing flavor complexity. Turkey's annual per-capita coffee consumption, currently 1 to 1.2 kilograms, is expected to double to 2 kilograms by 2030, fueled by younger consumers exploring espresso-based drinks. While urbanization and time constraints may shift preferences toward pre-ground and instant coffee, Whole Bean's association with authenticity ensures a loyal customer base.

Ready-to-Drink coffee is projected to grow at a CAGR of 8.34% through 2030, the fastest among product types, as millennials in Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and the UAE embrace convenient, on-the-go formats. Ground Coffee, Instant Coffee, and Coffee Pods and Capsules occupy a middle ground. Instant Coffee benefits from affordability and long shelf life in price-sensitive markets like Egypt and Nigeria, while Coffee Pods and Capsules face challenges from environmental concerns and limited machine penetration outside Gulf Cooperation Council states. Nescafé's May 2024 launch of Espresso Concentrate, a liquid format for foodservice, addresses labor shortages in cafés and restaurants. RTD coffee's growth depends on expanding cold-chain infrastructure in North and Sub-Saharan Africa and managing sugar-tax regulations without compromising taste or margins.

Note: Segment shares of all individual segments available upon report purchase

By Category: Conventional Dominates, Specialty Surges

In 2024, conventional coffee accounted for 79.31% of the market, driven by the popularity of mass-market instant and ground coffee formats. These products cater to price-sensitive households in countries like Egypt, Nigeria, Morocco, and rural Turkey. Brands such as Nescafé, Jacobs, and local competitors utilize economies of scale to offer 100-gram jars priced affordably between USD 2 and USD 3. This pricing strategy positions coffee as an accessible daily necessity rather than a premium product. The segment's stronghold is further supported by institutional demand from hotels, restaurants, and offices, where cost efficiency and consistency take precedence over factors like origin or quality scores. However, the growth of this segment is slowing as urban consumers increasingly shift to specialty coffee options, and younger generations move away from the instant-coffee preferences of older demographics.

Specialty coffee is projected to grow at a robust 9.44% CAGR through 2030, making it the fastest-growing category. This growth is fueled by the expansion of third-wave coffee roasters in cities such as Riyadh, Dubai, Istanbul, and Johannesburg. These roasters focus on direct-trade Ethiopian and Kenyan coffee, which commands premiums of 200% to 400% over standard commodity coffee. The retail sector is also adapting to this trend, with UAE hypermarkets dedicating entire aisles to single-origin coffee products. Additionally, Saudi Arabia's DMCC Coffee Centre expanded its grading and storage facilities in 2024, aiming to establish Dubai as a key re-export hub for African specialty coffee. The future growth of this category will depend on the ability of roasters to implement scalable traceability systems that meet consumer expectations and on the resilience of disposable incomes in Gulf markets amid fluctuating oil prices.

By Coffee Species: Arabica Leads, Liberica Emerges

In 2024, Arabica coffee led the market with a 70.01% share, driven by its dominance in Ethiopian and Kenyan exports and its popularity among Gulf consumers who prefer its smooth, less bitter taste. Ethiopia's 2024/25 harvest is projected at 8.5 million bags, primarily Arabica. A new policy introduced in April 2024 allows direct foreign purchases, expected to channel premium lots to Middle Eastern roasters seeking unique offerings. Similarly, Kenya's 2024 auction reforms, enabling direct sales, have strengthened Arabica's position by allowing buyers to secure high-quality grades at better prices. Arabica's share is expected to remain steady due to strong consumer preferences and proximity to East African origins. However, Robusta's affordability and higher caffeine content make it competitive in instant-coffee blends and cost-sensitive markets.

Liberica coffee is forecast to grow at a 7.89% CAGR through 2030, the fastest among all species. Its low-acidity, fruity profile appeals to health-conscious consumers looking for alternatives to high-caffeine options. While primarily cultivated in the Philippines and Malaysia, trials in Uganda and Tanzania are exploring its potential in African soils, which could reduce import reliance. Specialty cafés in Dubai and Riyadh are introducing Liberica single-origin pour-overs, positioning it as a premium, exotic choice for adventurous consumers. Robusta, favored for its solubility and cost advantage, remains dominant in instant-coffee production. Uganda's 2024/25 Robusta harvest is projected at 6.87 million bags, largely destined for European and Asian instant-coffee manufacturers. The market reflects a balance between Robusta's high yield and resilience and the growing demand for premium Arabica and niche varieties like Liberica.

Note: Segment shares of all individual segments available upon report purchase

By Distribution Channel: Off-Trade Holds Share, On-Trade Accelerates

In 2024, Off-Trade channels seized 69.42% of the market share, propelled by supermarkets, hypermarkets, and convenience stores. These outlets, known for their diverse selections and competitive pricing, have become the go-to spots for both instant and ground coffee. In the Gulf retail scene, Carrefour, Lulu Hypermarket, and Spinneys lead the pack. They skillfully leverage private-label products to offer prices that undercut branded counterparts, appealing to the budget-conscious shopper. Meanwhile, online retail is making significant inroads, especially in the UAE and Saudi Arabia. Platforms like Noon and Amazon.ae are not just selling products; they're introducing subscription models, ensuring steady revenue streams and allowing brands to sidestep the traditional challenges of shelf-space negotiations. Specialty stores, from boutique roasters to gourmet grocers, are tapping into the premium market. While their share in the Off-Trade segment is currently modest, it's on an upward trajectory as consumers increasingly value curated selections and transparency about product origins. Other Off-Trade avenues—like petrol stations, kiosks, and vending machines—offer quick purchase options for ready-to-drink and single-serve formats. However, their overall contribution remains limited, primarily concentrated in bustling urban areas.

Forecasts predict On-Trade channels will expand at a 9.23% CAGR through 2030, outpacing Off-Trade's anticipated 7.8% growth, thanks to the rising popularity of experiential retail and café culture. In a strategic move, Costa Coffee has teamed up with Saudi Arabia's Jazean Group, eyeing the operation of 100 stores. This collaboration harnesses local real-estate insights and cultural nuances, ensuring smooth navigation through zoning laws and labor-nationalization mandates. Black Sheep Coffee, not to be outdone, unveiled its ambitious plan in 2024 to roll out 250 stores across the Middle East and Africa. Their focus is on high-traffic malls and bustling business districts, offering premium espresso drinks alongside co-working spaces. The On-Trade channel's expansion is further bolstered by hotels, restaurants, and corporate cafeterias. These establishments are not just upgrading their equipment but are also refining their menus to align with heightened quality expectations. A testament to this trend is Nescafé's May 2024 introduction of Espresso Concentrate, designed specifically for this segment, promising barista-quality extraction with reduced labor demands. However, the future of this channel hinges on several factors: real-estate costs, the availability of labor, and the ability of café operators to maintain foot traffic in an era of normalized remote work and heightened scrutiny on discretionary spending.

Geography Analysis

The United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia dominate coffee consumption in the Middle East, driven by high incomes, expatriates with daily coffee habits, and government diversification efforts focused on hospitality and retail. The UAE's coffee market emphasizes premium offerings, with Dubai's specialty cafés rivaling European cities. In Saudi Arabia, Vision 2030 is fueling café growth, highlighted by Costa Coffee's partnership with Jazean Group to open 100 stores and Saudi Coffee Company's nine agreements signed in February 2024. These initiatives aim to boost local value-chain margins and reduce import reliance. In Turkey, traditional Turkish coffee remains popular in rural areas and among older demographics, while urban millennials in cities like Istanbul, Ankara, and Izmir increasingly prefer espresso-based drinks. Turkey's strategic location also makes it a key re-export hub for instant coffee to Central Asia.

South Africa leads Sub-Saharan Africa in coffee consumption, supported by strong retail infrastructure, a growing middle class, and a coffee culture rooted in European colonial history. Johannesburg and Cape Town have thriving specialty café scenes, and local roasters are sourcing from Zambia and Malawi to reduce reliance on East African imports. In North Africa, Egypt and Morocco are the largest markets, with instant and ground coffee dominating due to price sensitivity. Egypt's urban population, projected to reach 60 million by 2030, is driving demand for ready-to-drink and single-serve products. Ethiopia and Kenya, major coffee producers, are also emerging as consumers. Ethiopia's April 2024 policy change allowing direct foreign purchases aims to retain more specialty coffee locally, while Kenya's auction reforms are increasing farmgate prices and enabling smallholder investments in processing.

Other Middle Eastern and African markets, including Algeria, Tunisia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Oman, Uganda, Tanzania, and Ghana, show varied coffee consumption patterns. Algeria and Tunisia have French-inspired café cultures but face foreign-exchange challenges limiting premium imports. Kuwait, Bahrain, and Oman follow UAE and Saudi trends on a smaller scale, driven by expatriates and international café franchises. Uganda and Tanzania focus on production, with Uganda's 2024/25 Robusta harvest projected at 6.87 million bags, mostly exported to Europe and Asia for instant coffee^{[3]USDA Foreign Agricultural Service, "Coffee: World Markets and Trade", fas.usda.gov}. However, urbanization is boosting domestic consumption, with local roasters targeting middle-income households with affordable ground coffee. The 2024 European Union Deforestation Regulation is pressuring Ugandan and Tanzanian exporters to adopt traceability systems, increasing costs for smallholders and potentially shifting supply to less-regulated markets in the Middle East and Asia.