Manganese Market Size & Share Analysis - Growth Trends And Forecast (2025 - 2030)

Global Manganese Market Trends and Insights

Electrification of Heavy-Duty Vehicles Accelerates HP-Mn Demand

Heavy-duty electric trucks and buses are increasingly turning to LMFP cathodes, which have a higher manganese content than traditional LFP chemistries, effectively increasing the manganese usage per kilowatt-hour^{[1]International Council on Clean Transportation, “Global LDV Battery Chemistry,” ICCT, theicct.org}. Element 25’s Louisiana refinery, backed by a U.S. DOE grant, will produce and supply high-purity manganese sulfate, circumventing Chinese intermediaries. In a notable shift, automakers are now willing to pay a premium for feedstock that is both traceable and low-carbon, leading to the establishment of a two-tier pricing structure in the manganese market. As a result of these developments, Western policy incentives are driving up demand for battery-grade supplies, ensuring continued growth even amid fluctuations in steel cycles. This evolving landscape is prompting traditional ore miners to either move downstream or collaborate with refiners, all in an effort to maintain their market foothold.

Steelmakers’ Switch to Hydrogen-DRI Raises HC FeMn Intensity

Hydrogen-based DRI-EAF pathways necessitate more manganese additions compared to blast-furnace routes, primarily because DRI pellets have a lower residual manganese content^{[2]International Energy Agency, “Iron and Steel Technology Roadmap,” IEA, iea.org}. Pilot plants in Sweden and Germany validated these increased alloy additions during their 2024 commissioning. India's National Green Hydrogen Mission, which aims to boost green hydrogen production by 2030, could increase the country's demand for ferromanganese. Suppliers of ferromanganese harnessing low-carbon power are set to gain significantly, especially as EU carbon border taxes impose penalties on coal-intensive grade imports. This surge in alloy consumption not only strengthens the current market but also paves the way for the long-term growth of the Manganese market.

Western OEM Off-Take Deals for HPMSM Diversify Supply

Automakers in North America and Europe have locked in multi-year HPMSM volumes, transferring price risk to producers and underwriting new refineries in Botswana and Australia. These contracts often index prices to lithium or cobalt benchmarks, supporting bankability despite commodity volatility. The resulting supply diversification dilutes China’s significant share of refining capacity, catalyzing capital inflows to Western projects. Long-term contracts also embed ESG performance clauses, prompting miners to certify traceability and low-carbon footprints. The arrangement fosters a structurally tighter, premium-oriented battery-grade segment within the broader Manganese market.

Infrastructure-Grade Silico-Manganese Demand in India and ASEAN

India's ambitious National Infrastructure Pipeline is not just a blueprint for development; it's actively boosting steel production and driving robust growth in silico-manganese demand. Domestic furnaces have recently increased their capacity. Yet, miners continue to rely on high-grade ore imports from South Africa, a choice that notably reduces their smelting energy expenses. Similarly, projects in Indonesia and Vietnam, part of the ASEAN bloc, are echoing this trend, resulting in a collective increase in regional rebar consumption. South African suppliers, once focused on European markets, are now shifting their gaze towards Asia. This pivot is largely driven by the allure of freight premiums and the tightening grip of EU emissions regulations. Such dynamics not only underscore Asia's burgeoning dominance in the manganese market but also signal a significant realignment in global commodity flows.

Rapid LFP Adoption Curbs Cathode-Grade Mn Growth

In 2024, passenger EV manufacturers increased the share of LFP cathodes, displacing manganese-based chemistries and casting a shadow on the immediate demand for cathode-grade materials. A rise in LFP translates to a reduction in manganese sulfate demand. Should LFP's market share continue to increase by 2028, the battery-grade manganese sector may fall short of previous projections. While producers are adapting by crafting refineries that can switch to electrolytic metals for steel additives, this added flexibility comes with a hike in capital expenses. As a result, the Manganese market's growth is being restrained, even as LMFP sees parallel advancements.

Ore-Port Bottlenecks in South Africa Cap Export Volumes

In 2024, disruptions to Transnet's rail services reduced the throughput of the Sishen-Saldanha corridor. As a result, miners resorted to trucking ore, incurring higher logistics costs. This situation weakened profit margins and diminished incentives for expansion, preventing the world's largest reserve holder from fully tapping into the prevailing demand. Meanwhile, smelters in China and Europe faced heightened freight rates and extended lead times, further tightening the supply. Although a rehabilitation initiative is in progress, significant capacity improvements aren't anticipated before the latter part of the decade. Consequently, ongoing logistical challenges are hampering the growth of ore availability and, in turn, constraining the Manganese market.

Segment Analysis

By Application: Alloys Anchor Demand, EMD Gains Battery Traction

Alloys accounted for 68.42% of the manganese market demand in 2024, primarily driven by the addition of ferromanganese and silicomanganese to finished steel. With rising hydrogen-DRI capacities in Europe and India, alloy intensity has increased, supporting steady volume growth. Electrolytic manganese dioxide is poised for 6.28% growth, driven by demand from portable electronics and emerging grid-storage initiatives. Other end-uses, including feed, water treatment, and ceramics, are growing in tandem with GDP, providing volume stability to the manganese market. The resurgence of EMD is largely attributed to zinc-manganese batteries, which have caught the attention of utility-scale pilots in California's DOE. Additionally, steelmakers grappling with EU carbon tariffs are increasingly seeking certified low-carbon alloys, creating a premium niche in the broader commodity market.

Note: Segment shares of all individual segments available upon report purchase

By End-Use Sector: Industrial Leads, Power Storage Surges

In 2024, industrial buyers commanded 46.37%, driven by steel mills, foundries, and chemical plants, and dominated the Manganese market. While rebar consumption is buoyed by construction projects in India and the ASEAN region, growth is expected to temper after 2028, coinciding with a stabilization in China's property sector. The power storage and electricity segment emerges as the fastest-growing category, with a 6.46% growth rate. This surge is largely attributed to the adoption of LMFP cathodes and zinc-manganese stationary storage solutions. Element 25's Louisiana plant is set to bolster this segment, supplying HPMSM, thereby reinforcing the premium tier of the Manganese market. Meanwhile, the combined demand from electronics, agriculture, and ceramics is growing at rates that closely align with or slightly surpass GDP figures. As the momentum towards electrified mobility and long-duration storage accelerates, a discernible shift in demand quality is evident. This evolution not only increases the share of high-purity products but also raises the average realized prices.

By Ore Grade: Standard Grade Dominates, Battery Grade Accelerates

In 2024, standard-grade ore accounted for 51.24% of total volumes, trading at competitive prices on a CFR basis in China. Battery-grade ore, though a smaller segment, is projected to grow at a 6.57% CAGR, driven by stringent impurity standards. High-purity ore, catering to the stainless steel and electronics sectors, commands a notable market share with steady growth. Technical-grade ore, primarily linked to agriculture, operates in a low-margin niche. The pronounced price differences underscore a growing divide in the Manganese market. Key players in the battery-grade supply chain, such as Butcherbird in Australia and K.Hill in Botswana, are well-positioned to provide high-purity products, targeting Western cathode manufacturers. Meanwhile, standard-grade producers are grappling with EU carbon tariffs, which dampen the demand for coal-smelted alloys. In response, they're pivoting towards renewable-powered smelting and recycled feedstock.

Note: Segment shares of all individual segments available upon report purchase

Geography Analysis

The Asia-Pacific region absorbed 54.63% of the global manganese market in 2024, primarily driven by China's demand, which was largely for steel and battery materials. India, buoyed by infrastructure investments and expansions in silico-manganese at Tata Steel and MOIL, also made significant contributions. Japan and South Korea have established themselves as key players in the electrolytic manganese metal industry, exporting high-purity products throughout the region. Despite being resource-rich, Africa processed only a small portion of its manganese ore domestically, with the bulk exported, a consequence of its limited refining capacity. The Middle East and Africa Manganese market is forecast to grow at a 5.94% CAGR to 2030, driven by South Africa's efforts to alleviate rail constraints and Saudi Arabia's push for downstream investments.

North America accounted for a smaller share of global manganese demand in 2024. However, with the commissioning of Element 25’s refinery in Louisiana, the localization of battery-grade supply could bolster this share. Canada is actively pursuing manganese deposits in Quebec, while Mexican steel mills are ramping up capacity to cater to U.S. automotive clients. Europe, holding a moderate share, grapples with challenges from the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), nudging buyers towards Norwegian hydro-powered alloys and recycled feedstock. Notably, Eramet’s “eraLow” brand is capitalizing on renewable electricity to secure contracts with EU flat-steel producers.

South America, contributing a smaller portion to global manganese demand, sees Brazil leading in alloy consumption and exports from Vale’s Azul mine. Meanwhile, Argentina's burgeoning lithium sector is indirectly driving up demand for manganese, particularly for cathode precursors. With regional efforts to cultivate battery supply chains, there's potential for increased intra-continental processing, reshaping the Manganese market dynamics. The trajectory of Latin American nations moving up the value chain will hinge on infrastructure enhancements and green energy initiatives.