India Rice Market Analysis by Mordor Intelligence
The India rice market size is valued at USD 47.1 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 60.1 billion by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 5.0%. India accounts for 30.3% of global rice exports, with domestic production projected to reach 151 million metric tons in 2025-26, establishing the country as a significant influence on global rice prices[1]U.S. Department of Agriculture, “India to Dethrone China as Largest Rice Producer,” usda.gov . The removal of the September 2024 ban on non-basmati white rice exports has increased export opportunities, while increased minimum support prices (MSP) support farmer income and encourage production capacity growth. The adoption of advanced technologies, including genome-edited varieties and remote-sensing water management systems, is enhancing production efficiency and improving product traceability for export markets.
Key Report Takeaways
- In the India rice market, Telangana, Uttar Pradesh, and West Bengal collectively contributed more than 35% to the total rice production in 2024.
India Rice Market Trends and Insights
Drivers Impact Analysis
| Driver | (~) % Impact on CAGR Forecast | Geographic Relevance | Impact Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rising domestic per-capita rice consumption | +1.0% | National; greater pull in urban centers | Medium term (2-4 years) |
| Mandatory rice fortification across Public Distribution System | +0.8% | National; strong rural and tribal coverage | Long term (≥ 4 years) |
| Higher minimum support price and procurement volumes | +1.2% | West Bengal, Uttar Pradesh, and Punjab | Short term (≤ 2 years) |
| Farm mechanization and irrigation expansion | +0.7% | Punjab, Haryana, Western Uttar Pradesh; spillover into Eastern states | Long term (≥ 4 years) |
| Hybrid, high-protein rice varieties targeting health-aware consumers | +0.5% | Premium urban markets nationwide | Medium term (2-4 years) |
| Blockchain-based traceability premiums in exports | +0.3% | Punjab, Haryana, and Western Uttar Pradesh | Medium term (2-4 years) |
| Source: Mordor Intelligence | |||
Rising Domestic Per-Capita Rice Consumption
Per-capita rice consumption is increasing in Indian metropolitan areas where changing lifestyles drive demand for convenient, nutritionally enhanced staples. Government surveys indicate growing differences in cereal preferences between rural and urban areas, leading suppliers to develop high-protein and low-glycemic index products that can command higher prices[2]Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation, “Share of Cereals in Consumption 2022-23,” mospi.gov.in. The International Rice Research Institute has enhanced protein content to 15.99%, while the black-grained BPT 2841 variety offers increased lysine content, appealing to health-conscious consumers[3]International Rice Research Institute, “Genes for High Protein in Rice,” irri.org. KRBL's 18% increase in domestic branded sales demonstrates that premium products perform well in modern retail channels. Rice suppliers are investing in new varieties, improved packaging, and multi-channel distribution to capture urban market share. This trend has increased value realization across the supply chain, benefiting farmers who meet quality standards.
Mandatory Rice Fortification Across Public Distribution System
The government mandate for grain fortification through the Public Distribution System (PDS) has established consistent demand. The program serves more than 800 million beneficiaries, with 1,023 fortified kernel plants having a capacity of 111 lakh metric tons, which is twice the scheme's requirements. The installation of blending equipment in over 21,000 rice mills has created an additional processing network that ensures steady operations for millers. The guaranteed annual procurement of 520 lakh metric tons provides stable demand for compliant suppliers. States with high anemia rates, such as Nagaland, demonstrate the public health need that supports continued budget allocation. The fortification requirements are projected to become standard specifications, encouraging open-market participants to produce nutrient-enriched products.
Higher Minimum Support Price (MSP) and Procurement Volumes
The Minimum Support Price (MSP) for paddy increased to INR 2,369 per quintal (USD 28.4) for 2025-26, maintaining the policy of ensuring 1.5 times the production cost. Government procurement increased from 761.40 lakh metric tons in 2014-15 to 1,062.69 lakh metric tons in 2022-23, increasing farmer earnings from INR 1.06 lakh crore (USD 12.8 billion) to INR 2.28 lakh crore (USD 27.5 billion)[4] Press Information Bureau Staff, “Year-End Review of Department of Food and Public Distribution – 2024,” Press Information Bureau, pib.gov.in. This price protection encourages farmers to adopt high-yield hybrid varieties without concerns of market oversupply, although the domestic price floor may reduce export competitiveness. The concentration of procurement in West Bengal, Uttar Pradesh, and Punjab creates regional income disparities and influences crop selection patterns in these regions.
Farm Mechanization and Irrigation Expansion
India's agricultural mechanization rate of 40-45% indicates significant potential for improvement through precision planters, direct-seeded rice techniques, and laser-leveled irrigation systems. Research conducted across four states demonstrates that direct-seeded rice reduces cultivation costs by 79% and increases net earnings per acre by 62%. Remote-sensing data from Punjab indicates 20-40% water conservation without compromising crop yields, highlighting improved climate resilience. Government initiatives, including SMAM subsidies and an INR 500 crore (USD 60.2 million) genome-editing fund, support technology adoption, particularly through smallholder service platforms that consolidate demand. These improvements create a cycle of enhanced productivity that addresses increasing labor shortages.
Restraints Impact Analysis
| Restraint | (~) % Impact on CAGR Forecast | Geographic Relevance | Impact Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monsoon volatility and climate shocks | -1.8% | National, with severe impact in rainfed areas | Short term (≤ 2 years) |
| Small farm size and high production cost structure | -0.9% | Eastern and Southern states predominantly | Long term (≥ 4 years) |
| Methane-emission compliance pressure | -0.8% | National, with higher impact in intensive rice cultivation zones | Medium term (2-4 years) |
| Shift of acreage to higher-value horticulture | -0.4% | Progressive farming regions with market access | Medium term (2-4 years) |
| Source: Mordor Intelligence | |||
Monsoon Volatility and Climate Shocks
Extreme precipitation events were observed during the 2024 monsoon, affecting agricultural fields in Gujarat, Andhra Pradesh, and Telangana. Analysis indicates that rainfall exceeding 1,621 mm negatively impacts Kharif crop yields. Climate projections indicate a potential 20% decline in irrigated crop yields in Uttar Pradesh, while rain-fed areas may experience slight improvements. Farmers are responding by adjusting planting schedules and adopting drought-resistant crop varieties, though infrastructure development for climate resilience remains inconsistent across regions.
Small Farm Size and High Production Cost Structure
Small landholdings averaging below 1.1 hectares restrict mechanization and increase per-unit input costs. Direct-seeded rice trials demonstrate yield improvements in Uttar Pradesh, while results vary in Madhya Pradesh due to diverse soil conditions. Hybrid seeds, despite offering 2-metric tons per hectare higher yields, cost 3-4 times more than open-pollinated varieties, making them less accessible to small farmers. Punjab's decision to ban hybrid paddy by 2025, following Food Corporation of India's quality concerns, highlights the challenge of balancing productivity gains with market requirements.
Geography Analysis
India's rice export strength originates from geographically concentrated surplus regions with established canal irrigation and policy support. Punjab and Haryana contribute over 70% of basmati exports, while Eastern states primarily supply non-basmati varieties to the Public Distribution System (PDS), creating distinct logistics channels. The India rice market benefited from the September 2024 policy change that resumed non-basmati exports, leading to increased freight bookings to West Africa and the Middle East.
Telangana leads the southern expansion through canal modernization and state input subsidies that support multiple cropping cycles. While eastern coastal zones maintain high productivity, port infrastructure limitations increase freight costs and reduce profit margins. Remote sensing data indicates 78% accuracy in identifying sustainable water-saving practices across 3 million Punjab plots, offering potential solutions for water-stressed regions across India.
Processing infrastructure aligns with raw-paddy production zones, with more than 21,000 fortification-compliant mills located in major procurement areas, strengthening regional advantages. Climate events, such as the 2024 floods, reveal infrastructure vulnerabilities, highlighting the importance of diverse sourcing within the India rice market. Export competitiveness varies based on distance to ports; Punjab basmati faces higher logistics costs compared to Pakistani exports through Karachi, compelling Indian exporters to focus on value-added branding to maintain price levels.
Recent Industry Developments
- July 2025: IRRI, ICAR-Indian Institute of Rice Research (IIRR), and the University of Agricultural Sciences, Raichur, organized a training and seed distribution program in Raichur, Karnataka, and Marrigudem village, Nalgonda District, Telangana. The program distributed 50 quintals of Spoorthi, a new high-zinc rice variety, to selected farmers for multiplication and expansion.
- May 2025: The Indian Council of Agricultural Research introduced genome-edited rice varieties DRR Dhan-100, Kamala, and Pusa DST Rice 1. These varieties offer 25% higher yields and earlier maturity. They are the world's first genome-edited rice varieties with drought and salinity tolerance, and improved nitrogen-use efficiency, making them climate-resilient and water-conserving.
- September 2024: The government removed the export ban on non-basmati white rice and established a minimum export price of USD 490 per metric tons, while reducing the duty on parboiled rice to 10%. This policy change follows increased rice inventories in India, the world's largest rice exporter, and coincides with the approaching harvest season.
India Rice Market Report Scope
Rice is an edible starchy cereal grain grown in rainfed, lowland areas in both wet and dry seasons, mostly in Asian countries. The study on the Indian rice market includes production analysis (volume), consumption analysis (value and volume), and trade in terms of import analysis (value and volume), export analysis (value and volume), and price trend analysis of rice. The report offers the market size and forecasts in terms of volume in metric tons and value in USD for all the above segments.
India
| Production Analysis (Volume) |
| Consumption Analysis (Value and Volume) |
| Export Analysis (Value and Volume) |
| Import Analysis (Value and Volume) |
| Price Trend Analysis |
| India | Production Analysis (Volume) |
| Consumption Analysis (Value and Volume) | |
| Export Analysis (Value and Volume) | |
| Import Analysis (Value and Volume) | |
| Price Trend Analysis |
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Key Questions Answered in the Report
What is the projected value of the India rice market in 2030?
India rice market is forecast to reach USD 60.1 billion by 2030, reflecting a 5.0% CAGR over 2025-2030.
How is growing urban rice consumption influencing future demand?
Higher per-capita intake in cities is lifting value-added sales of high-protein and low-GI varieties.
Which are the major rice-producing states in Indian?
Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal, Punjab, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, and Odisha are the major rice-producing states in Indian.
How is mandatory fortification influencing demand?
Fortification secures an annual procurement floor of 520 lakh metric tons, creating a stable demand floor.
What technologies are transforming cultivation?
Genome-edited high-yield varieties, direct seeded rice, and blockchain-based traceability are boosting productivity and export premiums.
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