Europe Medium And Heavy-duty Commercial Vehicles Market Size & Share Analysis - Growth Trends and Forecast (2026 - 2031)

Segment Analysis

By Vehicle Type: Heavy-Duty Dominance Meets Transit Electrification

Heavy-duty trucks held 45.23% of the Europe medium and heavy commercial vehicle market in 2025, backed by intercontinental freight and construction haulage. Buses and coaches post the quickest 4.55% CAGR through 2031 as municipal electrification accelerates under EU cohesion funds. Medium-duty trucks absorb e-commerce growth by blending 6-16 tonne flexibility with depot charging. Electric buses surpassed diesel orders in Volvo Group’s 2025 backlog, signaling a tipping point. Heavy-duty diesel maintains primacy on 400-km-plus missions, though hydrogen fuel-cell pilots are edging into Alpine and Nordic corridors. 

Urban buses are increasingly adopting batteries, due to route predictability. Meanwhile, medium-duty trucks are expected to achieve significant penetration in the near future, primarily focusing on last-mile deliveries. Over the long term, the market for buses and coaches in Europe's medium and heavy commercial vehicle sector is anticipated to witness substantial growth, driven by policy-induced replacement cycles. On the other hand, while heavy-duty trucks in Europe’s medium and heavy commercial vehicle market may see a slight dip in share, it's largely due to the gradual shift from diesel to weight-penalized electric and hydrogen alternatives, expected by decade's end.

Note: Segment shares of all individual segments available upon report purchase

By Propulsion Type: ICE Incumbency Versus Electric Momentum

Internal combustion engines commanded 63.81% of revenue in 2025, but electric drivetrains chart the fastest 4.68% CAGR into 2031. Long-haul lanes remain dominated by diesel, due to its significantly higher energy density and the convenience of widespread refueling. In the realm of waste management, niche fleets are increasingly turning to CNG and LNG, with biogas helping to offset fuel premiums. In the near future, battery-electric vehicles are projected to account for the majority of electric registrations, supported by more affordable battery packs and a growing number of city bans on diesel. Meanwhile, plug-in hybrids are losing traction as their cost-saving advantages diminish, and pure hybrids find their niche, primarily in stop-start refuse duties.

While fuel-cell electric trucks are expected to have limited adoption in Europe in the near term, several TEN-T pilots hint at their potential for long-haul viability. OEMs are gravitating towards a clear propulsion strategy: battery-electric vehicles for urban and regional routes, and hydrogen or synthetic diesel for longer journeys. If the current adoption trends persist, the market size for electric propulsion in Europe's medium and heavy commercial vehicle sector could grow significantly in the coming years. Furthermore, with the anticipated scaling of megawatt charging networks, this segment's market share in Europe might see substantial growth over the same period.

By End-Use Application: Urban Distribution Leads, Public Transport Accelerates

Regional and urban distribution secured 27.84% of revenue in 2025 owing to route predictability, depot chargers and electrification alignment. Public transport grows quickest at 4.58% as 47 cities mandate zero-emission bus procurement, thus locking diesel out of tender processes. Long-haul retains diesel dominance with battery trucks penalized on payload and range, though hydrogen pilots sprout along Germany-Netherlands corridors. Construction and mining are slowest to shift, with only minimal electric share in 2025 due to off-grid challenges. 

Since last year, e-commerce volumes have been steadily increasing, supporting distribution growth and driving demand for medium-sized electrified rigs. Significant public transport funding over the coming years ensures a consistent flow of bus orders. Meanwhile, as fuel-cell cost curves evolve, intercontinental freight economics hint at a gradual shift in substitution patterns. Consequently, players in Europe's medium and heavy commercial vehicle market are strategically balancing their focus: securing immediate urban victories while also positioning themselves for alternative fuels in the long-haul segment.

Note: Segment shares of all individual segments available upon report purchase

By Gross Vehicle Weight Class: Mid-Weight Flexibility Drives Growth

The 16-26 tonne bracket held 34.46% share in 2025 by serving construction and municipal duties, yet the 10-16 tonne class enjoys a leading 4.65% CAGR as e-commerce spreads to secondary cities. Trucks in the light-to-medium weight category are leading the charge in electrification, with a significant portion of upcoming registrations projected to be electric. This surge is largely due to the optimal alignment of battery range and urban access. Meanwhile, heavier trucks continue to rely predominantly on diesel, although hydrogen pilots are being explored to mitigate payload concerns.

As the EU tightens CO₂ caps more aggressively on heavier truck classes, OEMs are shifting their focus. They're prioritizing the electrification of medium-weight models, aiming to capitalize on valuable regulatory credits. Additionally, urban low-emission zone policies are boosting the demand for light-to-medium electric vehicles, which benefit from avoiding access fees. Looking ahead, advancements in gravimetric density batteries might enable heavier electric trucks to overcome current payload challenges. However, for now, the European medium and heavy commercial vehicle market remains distinctly influenced by weight-specific economic factors.

Geography Analysis

Germany accounted for 27.15% of the European medium and heavy commercial vehicle market, holding a significant share due to its strong manufacturing base, extensive Autobahn corridors, and substantial annual road freight volume. Federal subsidies that cover a large portion of depot charger costs, along with rapid grid connections, are accelerating the deployment of electric vehicles. The United Kingdom rises fastest at a 4.63% CAGR through 2031 as post-Brexit route reshoring fuels domestic haulage and London’s borough-wide diesel ban forces fleets into electrification. 

During the same period, France, Italy, and Spain are projected to collectively account for a notable portion of the market. France benefits from its low-carbon nuclear electricity, which reduces lifecycle trucking emissions and simplifies compliance. Italy leverages its Mediterranean port throughput to enhance regional distribution, while Spain is increasing its renewable energy share to support green charging infrastructure. Nordic countries are expected to achieve a significant share in electric truck registrations, supported by advancements in cold-weather battery technology and substantial purchase subsidies for trucks.

Eastern European markets are anticipated to grow at a slower pace due to persistent infrastructure challenges. For example, gaps in fast-charging stations along key corridors, such as the Poland-Balkans route, are deterring electric vehicle investments. Although Belgium and the Netherlands have smaller market volumes, they play a strategic role as chokepoints, with major ports like Rotterdam and Antwerp enforcing zero-emission drayage. Austria, Denmark, and Ireland are relying on EU cohesion grants to expand their charging infrastructure. This dynamic highlights a two-speed transition in Europe, where Western and Nordic countries lead adoption, while Eastern regions are expected to follow as infrastructure development progresses. Consequently, while the European medium and heavy commercial vehicle market reflects an aggregated growth rate, it conceals significant local variations and diverse national trajectories.