Europe Bus Market Size & Share Analysis - Growth Trends and Forecast (2026 - 2031)

Europe Bus Market Trends and Insights

EU Clean-Bus Mandate (2025/30 Targets)

Under the Clean Vehicle Directive, member states must ensure that by 2025, a significant percentage of procured buses are clean, with this requirement increasing further by 2030 ^{[1]EUR-Lex, “Directive (EU) 2019/1161 on the Promotion of Clean and Energy-Efficient Road Transport Vehicles,” eur-lex.europa.eu} . Notably, half of these buses must feature zero-emission drivetrains. In response, operators are securing their positions: DB Regio, for instance, has placed a substantial multi-year order for thousands of units. This move not only sidesteps potential penalties but also solidifies demand for battery-electric platforms. Evidence of over-compliance is apparent: in 2024, nearly half of new city buses delivered in the EU were zero-emission, a notable increase from the previous year, showcasing a shift in fleet planning ^{[2]Transport & Environment, “Zero-Emission Buses Excel in 2024 European Market,” transportenvironment.org} . OEMs boasting modular platforms adaptable to various member-state regulations stand to gain the most, positioning themselves for rapid scaling.

Expansion of Urban Low-/Zero-Emission Zones

Thirty-five cities across Europe have either implemented or announced zero-emission zones, effectively banning diesel buses in specific areas. This move is hastening the early retirement of internal combustion engine (ICE) assets. London currently boasts over 1,800 electric buses and has mandated that all new double-decker buses must be zero-emission starting in 2025 ^{[3]London Mayor’s Office, “London Fleet Electrification Update 2025,” london.gov.uk}. Similarly, Paris is on track to fully electrify its RATP fleet by 2025, necessitating 4,700 electric buses and corresponding charging infrastructure upgrades. These zero-emission zones have led to a divided market: urban operators grapple with strict compliance deadlines, while their suburban counterparts still have the flexibility to use diesel, driving up the demand for nimble sub-9-meter buses adept at navigating the city's historic districts.

Post-COVID Public-Transport Ridership Rebound

In Germany, France, and Scandinavia, fare-box receipts have nearly returned to pre-pandemic levels, rejuvenating cash flows for operators who had postponed fleet investments. With ridership stabilizing, DB Regio secured a significant framework agreement, mirroring similar tenders in the UK and Spain. Corridors that faced overcrowding in late 2024 are now introducing articulated battery-electric and double-decker buses, boosting per-trip capacity without increasing labor expenses.

EU Recovery and Resilience Facility Capital Spending

With the substantial RRF funding, public-transport electrification receives a significant boost. Municipalities in Austria, Italy, and Spain are racing against the clock, needing to commit funds within a few years. Austria has allocated a considerable amount specifically for e-bus purchases and charging depots. Meanwhile, Italy's PNRR directs comparable investments into the cities of Rome and Milan. OEMs like Solaris, Daimler, and Volvo, who can promise swift deliveries, are consistently outpacing their competitors. However, in a twist, cost-conscious cities in Spain and Poland are leaning towards the offerings of BYD and Yutong.

Phase-Down of National E-Bus Purchase Subsidies

Germany has reduced its KsNI subsidy to a significantly lower portion of the list price. Meanwhile, the UK's ZEBRA program lapsed in March 2024, and there's no immediate replacement in sight. To navigate financing challenges, operators are turning to battery-leasing and residual-value agreements with OEMs like Daimler and Volvo. Given their capital constraints, regional fleets might postpone electrification, leading to a temporary dip in orders until fresh fiscal solutions are introduced.

Depot Grid-Connection and Power-Capacity Delays

In dense metros like London, Berlin, and Milan, approvals for distribution network operators can take a significant amount of time, delaying the rollout of large fleets. In response, operators are staging deliveries and testing opportunity-charging solutions to ease depot loads. However, the added infrastructure costs extend payback periods and temper immediate growth.

Segment Analysis

By Deck Type: Double-Deckers Gain Urban Traction

Double-deckers are advancing at a 9.15% CAGR through 2031. The Europe bus market size for this deck type will therefore widen faster than that of single-decks, even though single-decks commanded 81.31% share in 2025. Recent contracts include 104 Wrightbus StreetDeck Electroliners delivered to Go-Ahead Oxford and an 800-unit framework awarded by Ireland’s National Transport Authority, signaling strong replacement demand in the UK and Ireland. Chinese OEMs are also testing the segment: Yutong’s U11DD trial offers 662 kWh of battery capacity aimed at long-range intercity work. Growth is tied to the need for high-capacity vehicles on constrained curb space, especially in London, Dublin, and Belfast.

Single-deckers will keep dominating everyday urban operations because of lower acquisition cost, broader height clearance, and mature service networks. However, their slower growth rate suggests incremental rather than breakout volume. OEM differentiation will hinge on offering modular layouts that can be homologated quickly for varying door positions and interior specifications across continental Europe.

By Application: Intercity Coaches Electrify Long-Distance Routes

Transit buses drove 67.37% of 2025 deliveries but intercity and motorcoach applications will post the quickest 9.21% CAGR to 2031, transforming the Europe bus market. Volvo’s 8900 Electric secured 60-unit orders from Sweden’s Svealandstrafiken, while DB Regio added 200 BYD electric coaches to serve regional corridors. Operators cite 500-700 km certified range as the tipping point for diesel replacement on popular lines such as Berlin–Hamburg and Madrid–Valencia. 

Although school and charter niches remain small, the shift toward step-free, low-entry coach designs to comply with EU accessibility mandates adds incremental demand. OEMs with platforms that share drivetrains and electronics across transit and intercity variants capture scale efficiencies, boosting margins while simplifying parts inventory for operators.

By Fuel Type: Battery-Electric Overtakes Diesel

Diesel became the single largest revenue contributor to the European bus market with a 56.71% share in 2025, and battery electric vehicles are projected to grow at a 9.24% CAGR. The transition is powered by cheaper lithium-iron phosphate chemistries that push pack prices below USD 120 per kWh, faster three-hour depot charging, and regulatory zero-tailpipe-emission rules.

Fuel-cell electric buses remain pilot-scale, limited by hydrogen costs north of USD 8 per kg and sparse refueling infrastructure. Germany and the Netherlands each field fewer than 200 units today. Plug-in hybrids and CNG are transitional and lose share because urban access rules tighten around zero-emission compliance.

By Seating Capacity: Minibuses Serve First-Mile Demand

Minibuses with up to 30 seats will expand at a 9.17% CAGR as cities invest in first-/last-mile circulators for low-emission zones. The Europe bus market size for this class is underpinned by models such as IVECO’s eDaily and Karsan’s e-JEST, both offering sub-200 km range suitable for feeder routes. Ageing demographics in Western Europe also favor step-free compact units. 

Medium 31–50 seat layouts retain the largest 47.83% share in 2025, balancing capacity and maneuverability for most suburban routes. Double-axle versions in this class can easily be adapted to both city and intercity duty cycles, extending residual value and supporting higher fleet-replacement intervals.

Note: Segment shares of all individual segments available upon report purchase

By Bus Length: Compact Models Navigate Historic Districts

Sub-9 m buses are the fastest length segment and are forecast to grow at 9.27% CAGR. Historic districts in Rome, Seville, Lisbon, and Stockholm increasingly restrict large vehicles, making compact models the only viable option. Bluebus’s 6 m variant, for example, offers a 280 km urban range on a 126 kWh pack—adequate for 16-hour duty with midday top-ups. 

The standard 9–12 m bracket will continue to dominate overall deliveries due to its versatility across route types, with 63.47% market share in 2025. However, competition intensifies as nearly every major OEM now markets at least two electric models within this length, eroding price premiums once commanded by early movers.

Geography Analysis

Germany retained a 28.71% share of the European bus market in 2025. Growth is bolstered by Federal KsNI grants, which cover a significant portion of depot infrastructure costs, and a substantial framework from DB Regio for thousands of units. Berlin, with hundreds of e-buses already in operation, aims for complete fleet electrification by the end of the decade. While Hamburg and Munich are on similar trajectories, grid-capacity limitations at inner-city depots have extended their roll-out timelines by over a year.

France, the UK, and Spain together represent a considerable portion of the market sales. Due to a substantial subsidy plan, France's RATP secured options for thousands of e-buses. Meanwhile, Spain's MOVES III program allocated significant funding to both Barcelona and Madrid. London boasts the largest electric bus fleet in Europe, with a notable number of units. However, the expiration of the ZEBRA scheme has compelled English operators to rely on local-authority funds and private leasing, leading to diminished order visibility in the coming years.

Italy is the fastest-expanding national segment at 9.19% CAGR, catalyzed by PNRR funds that must be committed by 2026. Contracts like IVECO’s significant deal for hundreds of e-buses in Rome and ATM Milan’s tender for a substantial number of units highlight the urgency in procurement. Meanwhile, growth prospects are also brightening in Poland, Romania, and the Baltic states, where grants from the cohesion fund align with competitive bids from manufacturers like BYD and Yutong.