China Dairy Market Size and Share
Market Overview
| Study Period | 2020 - 2030 |
|---|---|
| Base Year For Estimation | 2024 |
| Forecast Data Period | 2025 - 2030 |
| Market Size (2025) | USD 74.18 Billion |
| Market Size (2030) | USD 91.11 Billion |
| Growth Rate (2025 - 2030) | 4.20% CAGR |
| Market Concentration | Medium |
Major Players
*Disclaimer: Major Players sorted in no particular order Image © Mordor Intelligence. Reuse requires attribution under CC BY 4.0. |
|
China Dairy Market Analysis by Mordor Intelligence
The China dairy market size is valued at USD 74.18 billion in 2025 and is expected to reach USD 91.11 billion by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 4.20% during 2025-2030. Urban income growth, increasing health awareness, and consumer preference for premium products are reshaping the China dairy market, shifting focus from volume expansion to value-driven innovation. The implementation of stricter national standards, including GB 19644-2024 for milk powder and GB 19302-2025 for fermented milk, along with an improved cold-chain ecosystem, has elevated product quality standards and consolidated market share among compliant manufacturers. The demand for protein-rich, probiotic, and organic products has increased, with tier-1 consumers accepting 15-25% price premiums while tier-3/4 households continue to drive volume growth. E-commerce penetration has expanded market reach into inland regions, contributing to market growth. While competition from plant-based alternatives and increasing compliance costs present challenges, they have not impacted the market's growth trajectory.
Key Report Takeaways
- By product type, milk led with a 50.60% share in 2024 in the China dairy market; cheese is projected to expand at a 8.94% CAGR through 2030.
- By distribution channel, off-trade captured 77.23% of the China dairy market size in 2024, while on-trade is forecast to grow at 6.84% CAGR through 2030
China Dairy Market Trends and Insights
Drivers Impact Analysis
| Driver | (~) % Impact on CAGR Forecast | Geographic Relevance | Impact Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rising demand for high-protein, fortified, and functional dairy products | +1.2% | National, with premium gains in tier-1 cities | Medium term (2-4 years) |
| Growth in health consciousness and focus on nutrition among Chinese consumers | +0.9% | Urban centers, expanding to tier-2/3 cities | Long term (≥ 4 years) |
| Expanding assortment of lactose-free and plant-based dairy alternatives | +0.7% | Coastal regions, metropolitan areas | Medium term (2-4 years) |
| Expansion of premium dairy segments, including specialty cheeses and yogurts | +0.8% | Tier-1 cities, expanding nationwide | Medium term (2-4 years) |
| Strong research and development investments in product shelf-life, taste, and packaging improvement | +0.5% | Manufacturing hubs, national distribution | Long term (≥ 4 years) |
| Enhanced marketing: celebrity influence, social media campaigns, and nutrition education | +0.4% | Digital-native demographics, urban markets | Short term (≤ 2 years) |
| Source: Mordor Intelligence | |||
Rising Demand for High-Protein, Fortified, and Functional Dairy Products
Protein fortification has emerged as a fundamental growth driver in China's dairy market, with high-protein products commanding substantial price premiums compared to conventional products. Consumer acceptance of premium pricing for functional benefits continues to increase, particularly among fitness-focused millennials and health-conscious seniors who prioritize nutritional value over cost considerations. The integration of whey protein isolate in yogurt formulations has enabled manufacturers to develop products with higher protein content per serving, effectively positioning them as complete meal replacements rather than conventional snacks. The diversification of probiotic strains beyond Lactobacillus now encompasses specialized cultures targeting digestive health, immune system support, and mental wellness benefits. Expedited regulatory approvals for new functional ingredients have accelerated the innovation pipeline, enabling manufacturers to introduce products with scientifically-supported health claims that resonate with consumers seeking evidence-based nutrition solutions.
Growth in Health Consciousness and Focus on Nutrition Among Chinese Consumers
The transformation of health consciousness in China demonstrates a fundamental shift in dietary preferences across generations. Urban consumers are increasingly engaged in reading and understanding nutrition labels, showing substantial growth in this behavior compared to previous years [1]Source: China Consumer Association, “Consumer Rights Protection Annual Report 2024,” cca.org.cn. The post-pandemic environment has permanently altered consumer purchasing patterns, with heightened interest in dairy products fortified with immune-supporting nutrients such as vitamin D, zinc, and omega-3 fatty acids. Healthcare professionals' educational initiatives have enhanced consumer understanding of critical nutritional factors like calcium absorption, protein quality scores, and glycemic impact, enabling more sophisticated product selection among middle-class families. The proliferation of digital health platforms and social media has amplified nutrition education reach, repositioning dairy products from optional items to essential dietary components. Furthermore, government nutrition guidelines emphasizing dairy consumption for bone health and child development have established a robust regulatory framework that supports continued market expansion.
Expanding Assortment of Lactose-Free and Plant-Based Dairy Alternatives
Lactose-free dairy products have gained widespread acceptance in China, with dedicated product lines experiencing substantial year-over-year growth, addressing the significant majority of Chinese adults who are lactose intolerant [2]Source: Chinese Nutrition Society, “Dietary Guidelines for Chinese Residents,” cnsoc.org. The improvement in enzyme treatment technologies has enhanced taste profiles and texture consistency, removing previous barriers to lactose-free adoption in traditional dairy categories. Plant-based alternatives now represent a notable portion of the total dairy market value, supported by environmental awareness and perceived health benefits among younger consumers. Oat milk and almond milk have increased their presence in coffee shops, expanding beyond traditional household consumption. Manufacturers have introduced hybrid formulations that combine dairy proteins with plant-based ingredients, offering familiar taste profiles while addressing sustainability preferences.
Expansion of Premium Dairy Segments, Including Specialty Cheeses and Yogurts
China's premium dairy segment is experiencing substantial expansion as consumer culinary preferences become more sophisticated, driven by the increasing influence of Western dining culture in major metropolitan cities [3]Source: China Customs, “Import and Export Data Analysis January 2025,” customs.gov.cn. Artisanal yogurt manufacturers have successfully established their market position by commanding premium prices through organic certifications, distinctive flavor combinations, and upscale packaging designs that resonate with traditional gift-giving practices. The affluent consumer segment demonstrates strong preference for specialty cheese varieties, including aged cheddar, imported parmesan, and artisanal selections, maintaining a clear association between European dairy products and superior quality. The Greek yogurt market has gained significant momentum through endorsements from fitness communities and targeted marketing campaigns emphasizing protein content benefits for physical fitness and weight management objectives. The enhancement of cold chain logistics infrastructure has facilitated broader geographical distribution of temperature-sensitive premium products, extending market penetration beyond established coastal urban centers.
Restraints Impact Analysis
| Restraint | (~) % Impact on CAGR Forecast | Geographic Relevance | Impact Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rising competition from plant-based and nut-based "milk" products | -0.8% | Urban centers, environmentally conscious demographics | Medium term (2-4 years) |
| Stringent regulatory standards leading to frequent product recalls | -0.6% | National manufacturing and distribution networks | Short term (≤ 2 years) |
| Health concerns over added sugar, fats, and additives in flavored dairy | -0.4% | Health-conscious urban consumers, parents | Medium term (2-4 years) |
| Traceability challenges in multi-tiered distribution networks | -0.3% | Rural and remote distribution channels | Long term (≥ 4 years) |
| Source: Mordor Intelligence | |||
Rising Competition from Plant-Based and Nut-Based "Milk" Products
Plant-based dairy alternatives have established a robust market presence by positioning themselves as environmentally sustainable and health-conscious options. The market for almond milk and oat milk variants continues to experience substantial growth across major metropolitan areas. The younger generation increasingly perceives plant-based alternatives not merely as dietary requirements but as an integral part of their lifestyle choices, which has expanded the consumer base beyond those with lactose intolerance to include mainstream consumers. Domestic plant-based brands have achieved competitive pricing compared to conventional dairy products while offering enhanced benefits such as extended shelf life and reduced cold storage requirements. Marketing messages highlighting reduced environmental impact and improved animal welfare practices have successfully connected with environmentally conscious consumers who prioritize sustainability over conventional taste preferences. The widespread availability through modern retail channels and e-commerce platforms has enhanced accessibility and normalized plant-based consumption patterns across diverse consumer segments.
Stringent Regulatory Standards Leading to Frequent Product Recalls
Manufacturers are allocating a significant portion of their revenue to implement quality assurance systems and testing protocols to meet enhanced food safety standards. The frequency of product recall incidents has substantially increased since the previous reporting period due to stricter enforcement of contamination detection and labeling accuracy requirements. The implementation of supply chain traceability mandates requires comprehensive documentation from farm to retail, creating administrative challenges for smaller manufacturers without advanced tracking systems. The harmonization of international standards has increased compliance complexity, especially for export-oriented producers who must comply with both domestic and foreign regulations. Following high-profile recall incidents, manufacturers have increased marketing investments to rebuild consumer trust and communicate safety improvements.
Segment Analysis
By Product Type: Milk Dominance Meets Cheese Innovation
Milk holds a dominant market share of 50.60% in 2024, supported by premium fresh milk offerings and UHT products that meet urban consumer needs. The demand for organic milk has experienced substantial growth as health-conscious consumers increasingly seek pesticide-free and hormone-free options in their daily diets, despite these products commanding a 40-50% price premium compared to conventional milk alternatives.
The flavored milk segment has successfully expanded beyond traditional breakfast consumption through the introduction of chocolate, strawberry, and seasonal fruit varieties that resonate with children and teenagers. The market has also witnessed increased usage of condensed milk, primarily driven by the rising trend of home baking activities, while powdered milk continues to maintain its strategic importance in infant nutrition applications and emergency supply considerations.
Note: Segment shares of all individual segments available upon report purchase
By Distribution Channel: Off-Trade Leadership Amid On-Trade Revival
Off-trade channels hold a dominant 77.23% market share in 2024, including supermarkets, hypermarkets, convenience stores, and e-commerce platforms with temperature-controlled delivery capabilities. Supermarkets and hypermarkets have increased performance through private label dairy products, offering 15-20% cost savings while maintaining quality through manufacturer partnerships. The expansion of convenience stores in tier-2 and tier-3 cities has improved dairy product accessibility, with round-the-clock operations and locations near residential areas driving both impulse purchases and emergency replenishment.
E-commerce growth has accelerated through live-streaming commerce and subscription delivery services, ensuring product availability and reducing shopping complexity for consumers. On-trade channels have achieved 6.84% growth as restaurants, cafes, and food service establishments incorporate dairy ingredients into menu items and beverages. The increase in coffee shops has created additional consumption opportunities for milk-based beverages, with specialty coffee trends increasing demand for high-quality milk that improves flavor and texture. Restaurants have expanded dairy usage beyond traditional cooking applications to include cheese-focused dishes, yogurt-based sauces, and dairy desserts at premium price points.
Note: Segment shares of all individual segments available upon report purchase
Remaining Segments in China Dairy Market
The other segments in China's dairy market, including yogurt, cream, dairy desserts, and butter, each play distinct roles in shaping the overall market landscape. Yogurt stands as a significant contributor, particularly popular among health-conscious consumers and benefiting from the growing probiotic food trend. The cream segment serves both retail and foodservice sectors, especially gaining momentum with the rising home-baking trend. Dairy desserts cater to the growing demand for premium and innovative dairy products, while the butter segment primarily serves the commercial baking industry and household consumption. These segments collectively contribute to the market's diversity and cater to evolving consumer preferences across different demographic groups.
Geography Analysis
China's dairy market demonstrates distinct regional consumption patterns based on economic development levels, cultural preferences, and infrastructure capabilities. Tier-1 cities, including Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen, account for 35% of market value despite representing only 12% of the population. This concentration stems from higher disposable incomes, Western lifestyle adoption, and premium product accessibility through established retail networks. These metropolitan markets show the strongest growth in specialty cheese, organic dairy products, and imported brands, which command higher prices than domestic alternatives. The mature cold chain infrastructure in coastal regions enables broader product variety and maintains extended shelf-life, supporting premium segment expansion and reducing distribution waste.
Tier-2 and tier-3 cities contribute 45% of market volume through middle-class expansion and accelerating urbanization that promotes dairy consumption among former rural populations. Regional preferences show distinct patterns, with northern provinces favoring milk and yogurt products, while southern regions prefer dairy desserts and flavored milk variants. E-commerce platforms have expanded access to premium dairy products in smaller cities through temperature-controlled logistics, overcoming traditional distribution constraints. Government nutrition education programs highlighting dairy health benefits for child development and elderly bone health have generated consistent demand growth across demographic segments.
Rural markets offer significant growth potential, with per-capita dairy consumption 40% below urban levels despite government initiatives promoting nutritional improvement and agricultural modernization. Infrastructure developments, including rural road improvements and cold storage facility expansion, have increased product availability and quality consistency in remote areas. Local dairy processing facilities have emerged to serve regional markets with fresh products, reducing transportation costs and supporting local agricultural communities through direct farmer partnerships.
Competitive Landscape
The Chinese dairy market is dominated by two major domestic players - Yili Group and Mengniu Dairy - who together command a substantial market share. International companies like Danone, Nestlé, and Fonterra have established their presence through high-end product offerings and strategic partnerships. The industry has moved beyond simple price competition, with companies now focusing on strengthening their supply chains, integrating operations vertically, and building digital platforms to connect directly with consumers and understand their needs in real-time.
Companies across the industry are embracing technological advancements to improve their operations. TheyNew companies have successfully entered the market by focusing on specialized segments, particularly in plant-based alternatives and premium organic products, areas where larger companies face challenges due to their existing infrastructure. The market shows promise for products targeting specific health conditions, personalized nutrition solutions, and environmentally friendly packaging that resonates with younger consumers. The industry has witnessed a 25% yearly increase in patents related to dairy processing technology, with companies focusing on extending product shelf life, improving nutritional content, and enhancing production efficiency. Compliance with food safety standards like ISO 22000 and HACCP has become a basic requirement rather than a competitive advantage, making it harder for smaller companies to enter the market while benefiting those who already meet these standards. are implementing artificial intelligence systems to better predict consumer demand, automating their quality control processes, and using blockchain technology to ensure product traceability. These technological implementations have helped companies enhance their food safety standards and build stronger trust with their customers.
China Dairy Industry Leaders
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Yili Group
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Mengniu Dairy
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Bright Dairy & Food
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Junlebao Dairy Group
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Danone SA
- *Disclaimer: Major Players sorted in no particular order
Recent Industry Developments
- October 2025: SGS and Yili Group have formed a strategic partnership to advance dairy industry quality and sustainability, focusing on global production standards, testing, and zero-carbon initiatives. The collaboration includes integrated solutions across certification, digital systems, and training to reinforce Yili’s reputation for reliability and innovation in China’s dairy sector.
- September 2025: Sanyuan introduced "Sanyuan Beijing Fresh Milk" as its first major product in the low-temperature segment, marking its entry into Beijing's fresh milk market. The launch represents a strategic expansion of Sanyuan's product portfolio and demonstrates the company's commitment to meeting the growing consumer demand for fresh dairy products in the region.
- June 2025: New Hope Dairy has announced plans to enter China’s fast-growing beverage market with modern milk-based drinks, aiming to tap new revenue streams amid declining milk sales. The company will focus on chilled products featuring popular flavors and weight management, targeting shifting consumer preferences.
China Dairy Market Report Scope
Butter, Cheese, Cream, Dairy Desserts, Milk, Yogurt are covered as segments by Category. Off-Trade, On-Trade are covered as segments by Distribution Channel.| Butter | Salted Butter | |
| Unsalted Butter | ||
| Cheese | Natural Cheese | Cheddar |
| Cottage | ||
| Ricotta | ||
| Parmesan | ||
| Others | ||
| Processed Cheese | ||
| Cream | Fresh Cream | |
| Cooking Cream | ||
| Whippng Cream | ||
| Others | ||
| Dairy Desserts | Ice Cream | |
| Cheesecakes | ||
| Frozen Desserts | ||
| Others | ||
| Milk | Condensed milk | |
| Flavored Milk | ||
| Fresh Milk | ||
| UHT Milk | ||
| Powdered Milk | ||
| Yogurt | Drinkable | |
| Spoonable | ||
| Sour Milk Drinks | ||
| On-trade | |
| Off-trade | Convenience Stores |
| Specialist Retailers | |
| Supermarkets and Hypermarkets | |
| Online Retail | |
| Others |
| By Product Type | Butter | Salted Butter | |
| Unsalted Butter | |||
| Cheese | Natural Cheese | Cheddar | |
| Cottage | |||
| Ricotta | |||
| Parmesan | |||
| Others | |||
| Processed Cheese | |||
| Cream | Fresh Cream | ||
| Cooking Cream | |||
| Whippng Cream | |||
| Others | |||
| Dairy Desserts | Ice Cream | ||
| Cheesecakes | |||
| Frozen Desserts | |||
| Others | |||
| Milk | Condensed milk | ||
| Flavored Milk | |||
| Fresh Milk | |||
| UHT Milk | |||
| Powdered Milk | |||
| Yogurt | Drinkable | ||
| Spoonable | |||
| Sour Milk Drinks | |||
| By Distribution Channel | On-trade | ||
| Off-trade | Convenience Stores | ||
| Specialist Retailers | |||
| Supermarkets and Hypermarkets | |||
| Online Retail | |||
| Others | |||
Market Definition
- Butter - Butter is a yellow-to-white solid emulsion of fat globules, water, and inorganic salts produced by churning the cream from cows’ milk
- Dairy - Dairy product include milk and any of the foods made from milk, including butter, cheese, ice cream, yogurt, and condensed and dried milk.
- Frozen Desserts - Frozen dairy dessert means and includes products containing milk or cream and other ingredients which are frozen or semi-frozen prior to consumption, such as ice milk or sherbet, including frozen dairy desserts for special dietary purposes, and sorbet
- Sour Milk Drinks - Sour milk is thick, curdled milk, with a sour taste, obtained from the fermentation of milk. Sour milk drinks such as kefir, laban, buttermilk have been considered in the study
| Keyword | Definition |
|---|---|
| Cultured Butter | Cultured butter is prepared by having the raw butter go through chemical processing and has been added with certain emulsifiers and foreign ingredients. |
| Uncultured Butter | This type of butter is one which has not been processed in any way |
| Natural Cheese | The type of cheese in its most natural form. It is made from natural and simple products and ingredients, including fresh and natural salts, natural colors, enzymes, and high-quality milk. |
| Processed Cheese | Processed cheese undergoes the same processes as natural cheese; however, it requires more steps and many different forms of ingredients. Making processed cheese involves melting natural cheese, emulsifying it, and adding preservatives and other artificial ingredients or colorings. |
| Single Cream | Single cream contains around 18% fat. It’s a single layer of cream that appears over boiled milk. |
| Double Cream | Double cream contains 48% fat, more than double the amount of fat of single cream. It’s heavier and thicker than single cream |
| Whipping Cream | This has a much higher fat percentage than single cream (36%). Used to top cakes, pies, and puddings and as a thickener for sauces, soups, and fillings. |
| Frozen Desserts | Desserts that are meant to be eaten in frozen condition. E.g., sherbets, sorbets, frozen yogurts |
| UHT Milk (Ultra-high temperature milk) | Milk heated at a very high temperature. Ultra-high-temperature processing (UHT) of milk involves heating for 1–8 sec at 135–154°C. which kills the spore-forming pathogenic microorganism, resulting in a product with a shelf-life of several months. |
| Non-dairy butter/Plant-based butter | Butter made from plant-derived oil such as coconut, palm, etc. |
| Non-dairy Yogurt | Yogurt made from typically made from nuts, like almonds, cashews, coconuts, and even other foods like soybeans, plantains, oats, and peas |
| On-trade | It refers to restaurants, QSRs, and bars. |
| Off-trade | It refers to supermarkets, hypermarkets, on-line channels, etc. |
| Neufchatel cheese | One of the oldest kinds of cheese in France. It is a soft, slightly crumbly, mold-ripened, bloomy-rind cheese made in the Neufchâtel-en-Bray region of Normandy. |
| Flexitarian | It refers to a consumer preferring a semi-vegetarian diet, that is centered on plant foods with limited or occasional inclusion of meat. |
| Lactose Intolerance | Lactose intolerance is a reaction in digestive system to lactose, the sugar in milk. It causes uncomfortable symptoms in response to the consumption of dairy products. |
| Cream Cheese | Cream cheese is a soft and creamy fresh cheese with a tangy taste made from milk and cream. |
| Sorbets | Sorbet is a frozen dessert made using ice combined with fruit juice, fruit purée, or other ingredients, such as wine, liqueur, or honey. |
| Sherbet | Sherbet is a sweetened frozen dessert made with fruit and some sort of dairy product such as milk or cream. |
| Shelf stable | Foods that can be safely stored at room temperature, or "on the shelf," for at least one year and do not have to be cooked or refrigerated to eat safely. |
| DSD | Direct Store Delivery is the process in supply chain management wherein the product is delivered from manufacturing plant directly to the retailer. |
| OU Kosher | Orthodox Union Kosher is a kosher certification agency based in New York City. |
| Gelato | Gelato is a frozen creamy dessert made with milk, heavy cream and sugar. |
| Grass-fed Cows | Grass-fed cows are allowed to graze in pastures, where they eat a variety of grasses and clover. |
Research Methodology
Mordor Intelligence follows a four-step methodology in all our reports.
- Step-1: Identify Key Variables: In order to build a robust forecasting methodology, the variables and factors identified in Step 1 are tested against available historical market numbers. Through an iterative process, the variables required for market forecast are set, and the model is built on the basis of these variables.
- Step-2: Build a Market Model: Market-size estimations for the forecast years are in nominal terms. Inflation is not a part of the pricing, and the average selling price (ASP) is kept constant throughout the forecast period for each country.
- Step-3: Validate and Finalize: In this important step, all market numbers, variables, and analyst calls are validated through an extensive network of primary research experts from the market studied. The respondents are selected across levels and functions to generate a holistic picture of the market studied.
- Step-4: Research Outputs: Syndicated Reports, Custom Consulting Assignments, Databases & Subscription Platforms
