China Dairy Alternatives Market SIZE & SHARE ANALYSIS - GROWTH TRENDS & FORECASTS UP TO 2030

China Dairy Alternatives Market Analysis

The China Dairy Alternatives Market size is estimated at 5.6 billion USD in 2025, and is expected to reach 8.84 billion USD by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 9.55% during the forecast period (2025-2030).

The Chinese dairy alternatives market is experiencing significant transformation driven by changing consumer preferences and dietary habits. A notable shift towards plant-based diets is evident, with approximately 5% of the Chinese population identifying as vegan in 2022, a trend that continues to grow as the country becomes more urbanized. This dietary transition is further supported by the high prevalence of lactose intolerance, affecting approximately 92.2% of the population, making milk alternatives an essential choice for many consumers. The market is witnessing increased demand for innovative plant-based dairy market products, particularly among urban consumers who are increasingly health-conscious and environmentally aware.

The retail landscape for dairy alternatives in China is evolving rapidly, with supermarkets and hypermarkets maintaining their dominance in the distribution network. These traditional retail channels accounted for 71% of the value share in 2023, benefiting from their ability to offer wide product selections and influence consumer purchasing decisions through strategic product placement and promotions. The market is also witnessing a significant digital transformation, with China's internet penetration rate reaching 74.4% and serving 1.05 billion users in 2022, driving the growth of online retail channels for milk alternatives.

Product innovation and strategic partnerships are reshaping the competitive landscape. In April 2023, Maeil Dairies Co. partnered with Starbucks China to introduce new menu items featuring almond milk-based beverages, demonstrating the growing acceptance of vegan dairy alternatives in the foodservice sector. Similarly, in August 2023, Simple Food expanded its presence by launching new plant-based products, including Traditional Chinese Almond Milk and Macadamia Milk, through 7-Eleven stores across the country, showcasing the industry's commitment to product diversification and accessibility.

The market is witnessing significant developments in distribution strategies and retail partnerships. Major retail chains are expanding their dairy alternatives sections, offering dedicated shelf space for plant-based products and introducing private label options. The rise of specialty stores focusing exclusively on plant-based products is creating new opportunities for premium and niche alternative protein products. This retail evolution is complemented by the growing adoption of omnichannel strategies, with retailers integrating online and offline experiences to meet diverse consumer preferences and shopping habits. The expansion of convenience store networks, such as Meiyijia's planned 70% increase in locations by 2027, is further enhancing the accessibility of dairy alternative products across various consumer segments.

China Dairy Alternatives Market Trends

Growing concern for animals and sustainability followed by changing dietary habits is largely impacting dairy alternatives consumption in the country

• The vegan lifestyle is gaining traction in China in line with the growing vegan population. In 2022, the percentage of vegan and vegetarian populations in China was estimated to be about 5-6%. This increased significantly in the last 2-3 years due to the growing influence of Western culture in the country. The larger cities in China, such as Beijing, Hong Kong, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Guangzhou, and Chengdu, all have supermarkets stocking vegan products.Among dairy alternatives, plant-based milk like soy, almond, and oat milk held the majority share across the country in 2022. China is the leading country across the APAC region in terms of consumption of dairy alternative milk. Among plant-based milk, soy drinks have traditionally been the most popular in China due to the long-standing tradition of soy consumption and its wide availability. By the end of 2022, China produced over 17.5 million metric tons of soybeans.
• One of the key motivations for the Chinese population increasingly adopting non-dairy products, including butter, is growing concerns for animals and sustainability, followed by changes in dietary habits. Nuts and nut butter contribute significantly toward maintaining a healthy diet as nut butter contains natural and healthy fats. The per capita consumption of nut-based butter is estimated to increase over the forecast period.Strong consumption is projected for free-from dairy products in China. More than 92% of the Chinese population has allergic reactions to lactose in dairy products, including flatulence and diarrhea. Yogurt products break down a large portion of lactose during fermentation, greatly mitigating possible allergic reactions. Thus, consumption of plant-based yogurt is expected to grow at a faster rate during the forecast period.

OTHER KEY INDUSTRY TRENDS COVERED IN THE REPORT

• Soybean dominates the Chinese market due to favorable environmental factors that promote its production in the country

Segment Analysis: Category

Non-Dairy Milk Segment in China Dairy Alternatives Market

Non-dairy milk dominates the Chinese dairy alternatives market, accounting for approximately 97% of the total market value in 2024. This overwhelming market share is driven by several factors, including the high prevalence of lactose intolerance among the Chinese population, with around 85% of people being lactose intolerant. The segment's growth is further bolstered by the expanding vegan population in China, which has reached about 5% of the total population in recent years. Soy milk remains the leader among milk alternatives by a considerable margin, benefiting from the long-standing tradition of soy consumption in Chinese culture. The segment has also witnessed significant innovation in product offerings, with major international and domestic players introducing various options, including almond milk, coconut milk, and oat milk. The increasing adoption of plant-based dairy diets, particularly among urban consumers, coupled with growing health consciousness and environmental awareness, continues to drive the segment's expansion. Additionally, the robust distribution network through both modern retail channels and e-commerce platforms has enhanced product accessibility and visibility across the country.

Non-Dairy Butter Segment in China Dairy Alternatives Market

The non-dairy butter segment, while smaller in market share, represents an emerging category in China's dairy alternatives market. The segment is experiencing steady growth driven by increasing demand from both retail and foodservice channels. Plant-based butter products are gaining popularity due to their lower saturated fat content compared to traditional dairy butter, while maintaining similar taste and functionality for cooking and baking applications. The segment has benefited from expanding distribution channels, with supermarkets and hypermarkets accounting for a significant portion of sales. The growth is particularly notable in urban areas where consumers are more likely to experiment with dairy substitutes. Manufacturers are focusing on product innovation, introducing various flavors and formats to cater to different cooking and consumption occasions. The foodservice industry's increasing adoption of non-dairy butter in recipe development and menu offerings has also contributed to market expansion.

Segment Analysis: Distribution Channel

Off-Trade Segment in China Dairy Alternatives Market

The off-trade distribution channel dominates the China dairy alternatives market, accounting for approximately 90% of the total market value in 2024. This channel's prominence is driven by the wider availability of various brands, ease of reading product labels, and convenience in comparing different products across retail outlets. Supermarkets and hypermarkets are the leading off-trade channels, holding around 71% share of off-trade sales, as they provide strategic positioning opportunities for key brands through large-scale retail shelves. The segment is projected to maintain its dominant position while growing at approximately 9% CAGR from 2024 to 2029, driven by the rapid expansion of modern retail formats and increasing penetration of e-commerce platforms. The growth is particularly notable in online retail channels, which are benefiting from China's massive internet user base of over 1.05 billion people and an internet penetration rate of 74.4%.

On-Trade Segment in China Dairy Alternatives Market

The on-trade segment represents a developing channel in China's dairy alternatives market, primarily driven by the expanding presence of cafes, restaurants, and foodservice outlets across the country. Major coffee chains like Starbucks, with over 6,000 outlets, and Costa Coffee, with more than 450 locations across China, are increasingly incorporating plant-based options in their menus, particularly focusing on milk alternatives beverages. The channel is witnessing growing adoption among urban consumers who are increasingly experimenting with plant-based options in their out-of-home consumption. Quick service restaurants (QSRs) are also contributing to the segment's development, with chains like KFC operating more than 8,100 outlets and McDonald's maintaining 4,500 locations across the country, many of which are expanding their plant-based offerings.