Chiller Market Size and Share
Market Overview
| Study Period | 2019 - 2030 |
|---|---|
| Market Size (2025) | USD 12.56 Billion |
| Market Size (2030) | USD 16.19 Billion |
| Growth Rate (2025 - 2030) | 5.20% CAGR |
| Fastest Growing Market | Middle East and Africa |
| Largest Market | Asia-Pacific |
| Market Concentration | Medium |
Major Players
*Disclaimer: Major Players sorted in no particular order Image © Mordor Intelligence. Reuse requires attribution under CC BY 4.0. |
|
Chiller Market Analysis by Mordor Intelligence
The chillers market size reached USD 12.56 billion in 2025 and is projected to expand to USD 16.19 billion by 2030, reflecting a 5.2% CAGR over the forecast period. Demand has remained resilient as data-center operators, food processors, and manufacturers pursue precise temperature control, energy efficiency, and regulatory compliance. Rapid digitization, especially workloads exceeding 100 kW per rack, has moved thermal management beyond conventional air systems toward liquid-ready platforms.[1]Source: Timothy Prickett Morgan, “Pushing AI System Cooling To The Limits Without Immersion,” Next Platform, nextplatform.com In parallel, policy-driven HFC phase-downs are accelerating low-GWP adoption, while volatile copper prices and technician shortages influence capital decisions. Asia-Pacific continued to anchor volume growth, but the Middle East and Africa delivered the fastest gains as infrastructure programs and extreme climates intensified cooling needs. Technology differentiation—variable-speed compressors, AI analytics, and water-saving designs—remains central to supplier competitiveness, underpinning sustained investment across the chillers market.
Key Report Takeaways
- By heat rejection method, water-cooled systems held 56.4% of the chillers market share in 2024; air-cooled units are forecast to post an 8.9% CAGR to 2030.
- By compressor type, screw technology led with 38.3% share in 2024, while centrifugal designs record a 7.4% CAGR through 2030.
- By capacity, the 50-350 kW bracket captured 31.2% of the chillers market size in 2024; sub-50 kW units are projected to grow at 10.1% CAGR between 2025-2030.
- By refrigerant, HFO-based systems expand at a 12.3% CAGR as HFC installations decline under phase-down rules.
- By end-user, food and beverage cooling commanded 22.2% of the chillers market in 2024, whereas data centers post the fastest 12.7% CAGR through 2030.
- By geography, Asia-Pacific retained a 42.3% share of the chillers market in 2024; the Middle East and Africa lead regional growth at 9.2% CAGR to 2030.
Global Chiller Market Trends and Insights
Drivers Impact Analysis
| Driver | (~) % Impact on CAGR Forecast | Geographic Relevance | Impact Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rising demand for precision cooling in data centres | +1.8% | Global, concentrated in North America and APAC | Medium term (2-4 years) |
| Growing adoption of HVAC chillers in commercial buildings | +1.2% | Global, led by emerging markets | Long term (≥ 4 years) |
| Increasing consumption of processed food and beverages | +0.9% | Global, strongest in APAC and MEA | Long term (≥ 4 years) |
| Rapid industrialisation in emerging economies | +1.1% | APAC core, spill-over to MEA and Latin America | Long term (≥ 4 years) |
| Uptake of low-GWP refrigerant chillers (CBAM effect) | +0.7% | North America and the EU, expanding globally | Medium term (2-4 years) |
| AI-based predictive maintenance improves ROI | +0.5% | Developed markets, gradual emerging market adoption | Medium term (2-4 years) |
| Source: Mordor Intelligence | |||
Rising demand for precision cooling in data centres
Next-generation hyperscale and colocation sites deployed racks that exceeded 100 kW, pushing legacy air systems to their thermal limits. Microsoft validated fully water-free cooling concepts that conserve 125 million liters per facility annually, highlighting water stewardship alongside thermal performance. Manufacturers responded with turnkey liquid-ready chillers, remote monitoring packages, and redundant designs that guarantee sub-1 °C set-point deviation. Premium service contracts now bundle predictive maintenance, ensuring uptime for AI workloads that monetize every millisecond of compute. These dynamics underpin a high-margin growth pocket within the chillers market.
Growing adoption of HVAC chillers in commercial buildings
Electrification mandates drove owners to swap aging gas units for variable-speed, low-GWP chillers that cut energy use up to 50% versus ASHRAE 90.1 baselines. U.S. regulations requiring low-GWP refrigerants in new commercial systems by 2026 triggered an early replacement cycle, lifting order books for advanced chillers. Mitsubishi Electric committed USD 143.5 million to a Kentucky compressor plant, signalling confidence in sustained regional demand. Building owners viewed higher-efficiency chillers as a hedge against volatile utility prices, accelerating payback even as upfront costs rose. These factors collectively widen the addressable chiller market.
Increasing consumption of processed food and beverages
Expanding cold chains supported stricter food-safety rules, especially in Asia, where urban consumers shifted toward packaged proteins. Linde’s ACCU-CHILL system delivered 33% energy savings in meat plants, underlining technology’s role in operating-cost control. The pharmaceutical cold chain spent USD 21.3 billion in 2024, with chilled medicines rising to 35% of total products, extending demand into life-science warehouses. Beverage distributors such as Hensley upgraded to A2L-ready chillers to meet both sustainability and safety targets. These trends cement stable, recurring revenue streams across the chillers market.
Rapid industrialization in emerging economies
Governments in India, Vietnam, and Indonesia pursued policies aimed at higher-value manufacturing that demands precise process cooling. India’s chemical sector targeted a USD 300 billion output by 2025, expanding capacity that relies on temperature-critical reactors. East Asia and Pacific growth outpaced global averages despite productivity headwinds, keeping industrial capex elevated. Such investments translate directly into chiller installations, reinforcing long-term volume growth in the chillers market.
Restraints Impact Analysis
| Restraint | (~) % Impact on CAGR Forecast | Geographic Relevance | Impact Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|
| High initial capital expenditure | -0.8% | Global, more pronounced in emerging markets | Short term (≤ 2 years) |
| Stricter environmental regulations on HFCs | -0.6% | North America and the EU, expanding globally | Medium term (2-4 years) |
| Volatile copper prices are raising heat-exchanger costs | -0.4% | Global, supply chain dependent | Short term (≤ 2 years) |
| Shortage of skilled chiller service technicians | -0.3% | Developed markets primarily | Medium term (2-4 years) |
| Source: Mordor Intelligence | |||
High initial capital expenditure
Advanced chillers that integrate AI analytics and low-GWP refrigerants cost 15-20% more than legacy units, prolonging payback for price-sensitive buyers.[2]Joanna Turpin, “HVAC Equipment Prices Expected to Keep Rising,” ACHR News, achrnews.com Recent spikes in copper above USD 4.88 per lb raised heat-exchanger costs and pressured OEM margins. Emerging-market importers faced currency devaluation, further inflating landed prices. Consequently, many facility managers deferred replacements, tempering short-term expansion in the chillers market.
Stricter environmental regulations on HFCs
The EPA’s 40% production cut on high-GWP refrigerants tightened the supply of R-410A, escalating prices, and creating inventory uncertainty. Europe’s revised F-gas rules compelled manufacturers to redesign product lines and train service networks, costs that cascaded to end users. Carbon Border Adjustment tariffs threatened to raise the price of imported equipment lacking carbon disclosures, complicating procurement for European buyers. Compliance timelines varied by application, fragmenting the aftermarket and slowing uniform adoption of next-generation units within the chillers market.
Segment Analysis
By Heat Rejection Method: Water-Cooled Dominance Faces Air-Cooled Challenge
Water-cooled units controlled 56.4% of the chillers market share in 2024, leveraging water’s superior heat capacity to serve loads above 500 tons efficiently. Capital-intensive facilities with existing cooling towers and retained water systems to minimize operating costs over multi-decade lifecycles. Nevertheless, air-cooled systems advanced at 8.9% CAGR as retrofit projects prioritized installation speed and reduced infrastructure.
Manufacturers narrowed historical performance gaps through micro-channel condensers and variable-speed fans that improve part-load efficiency. Water-scarce regions—Middle East, Africa, parts of the U.S. Southwest—favored air-cooled adoption to cut consumption and regulatory risk. Hyperscale providers piloted zero-water cooling, underscoring a strategic pivot that could redirect long-term demand toward air variants, reshaping the chillers market.
Note: Segment shares of all individual segments available upon report purchase
By Compressor Type: Screw Technology Leads While Centrifugal Gains Momentum
Screw compressors captured 38.3% of the chillers market in 2024 thanks to broad capacity coverage and load-following reliability. They remained the workhorse for chemical, plastics, and medium-sized commercial installations. Centrifugal models, however, expanded at 7.4% CAGR as magnetic bearings and oil-free designs cut maintenance and delivered best-in-class full-load efficiency.
Variable-speed drives became standard across both architectures, slicing energy bills up to 30%. Scroll units retained traction in small commercial buildings, while reciprocating machines addressed niche precision applications. Absorption chillers held a modest share where waste-heat sources justified thermally driven cooling. Supplier portfolios thus spanned multiple compressor technologies to service the full spectrum of the chillers market.
By Capacity Range: Mid-Range Dominance with Small-Capacity Growth
The 50-350 kW bracket represented 31.2% of the chillers market in 2024, aligning with mainstream commercial HVAC retrofit cycles and standard rooftop unit replacements. Modular footprints and broad contractor familiarity sustained its leadership. Sub-50 kW systems, though smaller in volume, posted a 10.1% CAGR as edge data centers, labs, and boutique breweries adopted distributed cooling.
Segment demand reflected shifting design philosophies toward scalability. Large central plants above 1,200 kW remained essential for district energy, petrochemical, and hyperscale data centers. Between these extremes, 350-700 kW and 700-1,200 kW bands supported mid-rise office towers and light-industry expansions. Modular skid offerings let owners stage capacity in step with occupancy, enhancing capital efficiency and reinforcing long-run demand within the chillers market.
By Refrigerant Type: HFC Transition Accelerates Low-GWP Adoption
HFC refrigerants still accounted for 45.3% of installations in 2024, reflecting the inertia of an installed base that spans millions of tons of cooling. That share is eroding as HFO blends deliver near-parity efficiency with dramatically lower GWP, driving a 12.3% CAGR for HFO units. Natural refrigerants such as ammonia and CO₂ are expanding in industrial niches where flammability and toxicity can be managed via engineered safety controls.
Water-based and magnetic-bearing systems showed promise for mission-critical settings that demand oil-free reliability. The switch to mildly flammable A2L refrigerants required updated codes, sensor arrays, and technician training, creating transitional friction yet offering long-term sustainability upside. Compliance complexity, rather than pure thermodynamics, increasingly defines refrigerant selection across the chillers market.
By End-User Industry: Food and Beverage Leadership with Data Center Acceleration
Food and beverage users commanded 22.2% of the chillers market in 2024, underpinned by non-negotiable cold-chain regulations and production quality standards. They favored redundancy and antimicrobial design features to safeguard product integrity. Data centers, at a 12.7% CAGR, represented the fastest-growing vertical as AI workloads multiplied thermal density and uptime requirements.
Chemical and pharmaceutical plants required validated, explosion-proof solutions, while plastics processors sought precise mold-temperature control. Commercial buildings, although mature, still generated steady replacements as electrification policies encouraged high-efficiency retrofits. Vendor strategies increasingly segment sales teams by vertical expertise, reflecting divergent specifications and service demands across the chillers market.
Geography Analysis
Asia-Pacific held 42.3% of the chillers market in 2024, driven by China’s electronics assembly lines, India’s expanding pharma hubs, and Southeast Asian contract manufacturing. Regional suppliers such as Daikin are localizing component sourcing, shortening lead times, and cutting costs. Government campaigns like “Make in India” targeted a 25% manufacturing GDP share, anchoring multi-year cooling demand.[3]Franklin Templeton, “India in 2024 and Beyond,” franklintempleton.com
Middle East and Africa posted the quickest 9.2% CAGR through 2030 as extreme climates and mega-projects—NEOM, Lusail—required large-scale HVAC and district systems. Water scarcity spurred air-cooled adoption, while oil-and-gas processing plants ordered corrosion-resistant chillers for desert duty. Private-equity deals, like CVC and Tabreed’s UAE district cooling acquisition, underscored the region’s attractive returns.
North America and Europe remained technology leaders, focusing on data-center, biotech, and retro-commissioning opportunities. Carrier’s Q1 2025 sales jump illustrated upside tied to high-value applications despite low single-digit unit growth. Europe’s F-gas roadmap accelerated novel refrigerant uptake, though macroeconomic softness tempered volume expansion. Latin America offered emerging upside where industrial parks and cold-storage investments slowly professionalized thermal infrastructure, extending the global reach of the chillers market.
Competitive Landscape
The chillers market showed moderate fragmentation, with the top five suppliers holding roughly 45% combined revenue. Global leaders emphasized specialized niches—Carrier in data-center thermal, Trane in building electrification, and Daikin in inverter technology. Vertiv’s 2024 purchase of centrifugal IP from BiXin exemplified targeted M&A to deepen high-capacity expertise.
Portfolio pruning characterized 2024-2025: Carrier divested commercial refrigeration to Haier for USD 775 million, sharpening focus on core HVAC and automation.[4]Carrier Global Corporation, “Carrier Completes USD 775 Million Sale,” corporate.carrier.com Beijer Ref consolidated European distribution via United Refrigeration’s assets to secure channel leverage. Service capability emerged as a differentiator amid technician shortages, prompting OEM-run academies such as Carrier’s Bracknell facility for A2L handling.
Digital services gained prominence: Honeywell launched cloud-native asset-performance software that cut downtime and boosted energy savings, bundling analytics with hardware for annuity-like revenues. Patent filings in sensor fusion, machine learning, and refrigerant leak detection rose sharply. Pricing discipline remained critical as copper and semiconductor costs fluctuated, pushing players toward long-term supply contracts to stabilize margins across the chillers market.
Chiller Industry Leaders
-
Carrier Global Corporation
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DAIKIN INDUSTRIES LTD
-
Johnson Controls International
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Mitsubishi Electric Corporation
-
Polyscience Inc.
- *Disclaimer: Major Players sorted in no particular order
Recent Industry Developments
- June 2025: CVC and Tabreed formed a partnership to acquire UAE district cooling assets, deepening private-equity exposure to the region’s HVAC infrastructure.
- May 2025: Trane Technologies reported USD 4.7 billion Q1 revenue, 11% above prior-year, and raised FY guidance on commercial HVAC and data-center strength.
- April 2025: Applied Industrial Technologies completed the USD 260 million Hydradyne acquisition, broadening fluid-power support for industrial cooling clients.
- March 2025: Carrier released Lynx FacTOR SaaS to automate pharmaceutical product-release validation, trimming cycle time from days to minutes.
Global Chiller Market Report Scope
A chiller is a machine that removes heat from a liquid coolant by vapor-compression, absorption refrigeration, or adsorption refrigeration cycles. Compressor, condenser, expansion valve, and evaporator are essential components of a chiller. They work in unison to circulate a refrigerant that removes heat from a process, operation, or space.
The Global Chiller Market is Segmented by Heat Rejection Method (Water Cooled, Air Cooled), Compressor Type (Screw Chillers, Scroll Chillers, Reciprocating Chillers, Centrifugal Chillers, Absorption Chiller), End-User Industry (Chemicals & Petrochemicals, Food & Beverage, Medical, Plastics), and Geography.
| Water-Cooled |
| Air-Cooled |
| Screw Chillers |
| Scroll Chillers |
| Reciprocating Chillers |
| Centrifugal Chillers |
| Absorption Chillers |
| < 50 kW |
| 50 – 350 kW |
| 350 – 700 kW |
| 700 – 1 200 kW |
| > 1 200 kW |
| Hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) |
| Hydrofluoro-olefin (HFO) |
| Natural (CO₂, NH₃, Propane) |
| Hydrochlorofluorocarbon (HCFC – phase-out) |
| Water-based / Magnetic-bearing |
| Chemicals and Petrochemicals |
| Food and Beverage |
| Medical and Pharmaceutical |
| Plastics and Rubber |
| Data Centres and IT |
| Commercial Buildings |
| Others |
| North America | United States | |
| Canada | ||
| Mexico | ||
| South America | Brazil | |
| Argentina | ||
| Rest of South America | ||
| Europe | Germany | |
| United Kingdom | ||
| France | ||
| Italy | ||
| Spain | ||
| Russia | ||
| Rest of Europe | ||
| Asia-Pacific | China | |
| Japan | ||
| India | ||
| South Korea | ||
| Southeast Asia | ||
| Rest of Asia-Pacific | ||
| Middle East and Africa | Middle East | Saudi Arabia |
| United Arab Emirates | ||
| Turkey | ||
| Rest of Middle East | ||
| Africa | South Africa | |
| Nigeria | ||
| Egypt | ||
| Rest of Africa | ||
| By Heat Rejection Method (Type of Cooling) | Water-Cooled | ||
| Air-Cooled | |||
| By Compressor Type | Screw Chillers | ||
| Scroll Chillers | |||
| Reciprocating Chillers | |||
| Centrifugal Chillers | |||
| Absorption Chillers | |||
| By Capacity Range | < 50 kW | ||
| 50 – 350 kW | |||
| 350 – 700 kW | |||
| 700 – 1 200 kW | |||
| > 1 200 kW | |||
| By Refrigerant Type | Hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) | ||
| Hydrofluoro-olefin (HFO) | |||
| Natural (CO₂, NH₃, Propane) | |||
| Hydrochlorofluorocarbon (HCFC – phase-out) | |||
| Water-based / Magnetic-bearing | |||
| By End-User Industry | Chemicals and Petrochemicals | ||
| Food and Beverage | |||
| Medical and Pharmaceutical | |||
| Plastics and Rubber | |||
| Data Centres and IT | |||
| Commercial Buildings | |||
| Others | |||
| By Geography | North America | United States | |
| Canada | |||
| Mexico | |||
| South America | Brazil | ||
| Argentina | |||
| Rest of South America | |||
| Europe | Germany | ||
| United Kingdom | |||
| France | |||
| Italy | |||
| Spain | |||
| Russia | |||
| Rest of Europe | |||
| Asia-Pacific | China | ||
| Japan | |||
| India | |||
| South Korea | |||
| Southeast Asia | |||
| Rest of Asia-Pacific | |||
| Middle East and Africa | Middle East | Saudi Arabia | |
| United Arab Emirates | |||
| Turkey | |||
| Rest of Middle East | |||
| Africa | South Africa | ||
| Nigeria | |||
| Egypt | |||
| Rest of Africa | |||
Key Questions Answered in the Report
What is the current size of the global chillers market?
The chillers market was valued at USD 12.56 billion in 2025 and is forecast to reach USD 16.19 billion by 2030.
How fast is the chillers market expected to grow through 2030?
The market is projected to advance at a 5.2% compound annual growth rate during the 2025-2030 period.
Which region holds the largest share of the chillers market?
Asia-Pacific led with 42.3% market share in 2024, driven by large-scale manufacturing and urban infrastructure projects.
Which end-user segment is expanding the fastest?
Data centers and IT applications are forecast to grow at a 12.7% CAGR through 2030 as high-density racks push demand for precision cooling.
Why are data centers boosting chiller demand?
AI and high-performance computing racks now exceed 100 kW per rack, requiring liquid-ready chillers that deliver tighter temperature control and round-the-clock reliability.
How are environmental rules changing refrigerant choices in chillers?
HFC phase-down mandates and new low-GWP standards are accelerating the shift to HFO and natural refrigerants, with HFO-based chillers growing at a 12.3% CAGR.
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