Chestnuts Market Size and Share
Chestnuts Market Analysis by Mordor Intelligence
The chestnuts market size reached USD 4.1 billion in 2025 and is forecast to advance to USD 5.0 billion by 2030, translating into a 4.0% compound annual growth rate (CAGR). Robust momentum stems from growing consumer preference for low-fat, gluten-free alternatives, sustained government support for agroforestry, and rising investments in post-harvest technology that stretch shelf life from weeks to months. Asia-Pacific retained leadership with 71.2% of global revenue in 2024, largely because China supplies about four-fifths of the world's output. Fresh in-shell chestnuts accounted for 57.2% of all sales, but chestnut flour is surging on the back of gluten-free bakery demand. Competition is fragmented yet tightening as processors vertically integrate to secure certified organic supply and capture higher price points, while improved mechanization lowers field losses to 6-8% and carbon-credit payouts of USD 50-200 per acre strengthen orchard economics.
Key Report Takeaways
- By geography, Asia-Pacific commanded 71.2% revenue in 2024, and North America is forecast to post the highest 7.84% CAGR from 2025-2030.
Global Chestnuts Market Trends and Insights
Drivers Impact Analysis
| Driver | (~) % Impact on CAGR Forecast | Geographic Relevance | Impact Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rising health-driven demand for low-fat, gluten-free nuts | +1.2% | Global, strongest in North America and the European Union | Medium term (2-4 years) |
| Expanding culinary and confectionery applications | +0.8% | Global, led by Asia-Pacific food processing hubs | Long term (≥ 4 years) |
| Government agroforestry subsidies | +0.6% | North America, the European Union, selective emerging markets | Short term (≤ 2 years) |
| Carbon-credit revenue from chestnut orchards | +0.4% | North America and the European Union, expanding to South America | Long term (≥ 4 years) |
| Surge in organic/pesticide-free nut demand | +0.7% | North America and the European Union, premium segments in Asia | Medium term (2-4 years) |
| Cold-chain and CA storage cuts post-harvest losses | +0.3% | Global, critical for export-oriented regions | Short term (≤ 2 years) |
| Source: Mordor Intelligence | |||
Rising Health-Driven Demand for Low-Fat, Gluten-Free Nuts
Chestnuts are the only commercial tree nut with less than 2% fat, a fact now resonating with consumers managing cardiovascular and diabetic conditions[1]Source: University of Florida IFAS, “Chestnut as a Specialty Crop in the United States,” edis.ifas.ufl.edu. Complex carbohydrates and vitamin C content set the product apart from almonds and walnuts, which derive more than half their calories from oil, enabling formulators to label chestnuts as a functional ingredient. Mainstream grocery chains are broadening shelf space beyond ethnic aisles, reporting year-on-year chestnut-flour sales growth of 25-40%.
Expanding Culinary and Confectionery Applications
Shelf-stable chestnut flour with a 12-18-month storage life is turning a once-seasonal item into a year-round ingredient in pasta, bread, and confectionery. Asian confectioners in Japan and Korea have lifted procurement by 18-22% annually, blending chestnut purée into both traditional wagashi and modern mousse cakes. Global food conglomerates eye the ingredient as a hedge against volatile wheat prices, while rapid-freeze and vacuum-roast technologies add convenience SKUs that attract premium margins.
Government Agro-Forestry Subsidies
The USDA’s Expanding Agroforestry Program funnels USD 36 million into payments of USD 450 per acre for three years, accelerating the adoption of tree-crop systems that include chestnuts. Similar support emanates from the EU’s Common Agricultural Policy, which links environmental payments to agroforestry acreage and offers carbon rewards. These incentives make chestnut production economically competitive with soy or corn while supporting biodiversity and soil-carbon gains.
Carbon-Credit Revenue from Chestnut Orchards
Mature orchards sequester 2.5-4.0 metric tons of CO₂ per acre each year, an order of magnitude above annual row-crop offsets, and now benefit from standardized counting protocols that let growers sell credits at USD 15-25 per ton. Added revenue of USD 50-200 per acre is attracting institutional capital keen on regenerative assets. Spanish trials show coppice management can boost carbon uptake by up to 60%, raising total credit income and creating a second cash stream alongside nut sales.
Restraints Impact Analysis
| Restraint | (~) % Impact on CAGR Forecast | Geographic Relevance | Impact Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|
| High labor and harvesting cost for prickly burr removal | -0.8% | Global, most severe in high-wage economies | Medium term (2-4 years) |
| Very short fresh-market shelf-life without chilling | -0.6% | Global, critical for export markets | Short term (≤ 2 years) |
| Climate-linked chill-hour deficit in Southern Europe | -0.5% | Southern Europe, expanding to Mediterranean regions | Long term (≥ 4 years) |
| Increasing phytosanitary barriers | -0.4% | Global trade corridors, European Union-United States-Asia routes | Medium term (2-4 years) |
| Source: Mordor Intelligence | |||
High Labor and Harvesting Cost for Prickly Burr Removal
Manual harvest and burr removal consume 25-35 work hours per acre and run to 40-60% of production cost, pushing many orchards in high-wage economies out of profitability[2]Source: Michigan State University, “Chestnut Production Economics,” canr.msu.edu. Commercial harvesters priced at USD 150,000-250,000 reduce labor needs by up to 70%, yet orchard layout, terrain, and initial capital outlay slow uptake among smallholders. European vacuum collectors achieve 80% separation efficiency with 1.3% losses, but mechanization remains uneven, sustaining a cost headwind for the chestnut commodity market.
Very Short Fresh-Market Shelf-Life Without Chilling
Unrefrigerated chestnuts lose moisture, brown internally, and mold within 7-10 days, constraining export windows and raising logistics costs by USD 0.08-0.12 per pound. Controlled atmosphere storage at 32-35°F and 90-95% relative humidity extend life to 2-3 months, yet small producers lack such infrastructure. Even so, fresh-market prices that run 50-100% above processed formats incentivize growers to assume this spoilage risk, limiting large-scale supply expansions until cold-chain coverage widens.
Geography Analysis
Asia-Pacific accounted for 71.2% of revenue in 2024, anchored by China’s 1.8 million metric tons harvest, which equates to 77% of the world supply. The region’s processors enjoy scale and cost advantages, but profit margins remain slender amid intense domestic competition. Europe sits in a premium niche; Spain ranks second globally with up to 59,907 metric tons, largely from Galicia, Castilla-León, and Central provinces[3]Source: International Society for Horticultural Science, “World Chestnut Production Statistics,” ishs.org. Consequently, the chestnuts commodity market is observing a northward shift in optimal orcharding zones.
North America contributes less than 1% of global volume but offers the steepest growth, posting a projected 7.84% CAGR to 2030. USDA agroforestry incentives worth USD 36 million and farmers’ drive to displace USD 60 million in annual imports underwrite rapid orchard expansion. Michigan, Virginia, and Pennsylvania lead plantings, while Canada deliberates stricter phytosanitary norms that could catalyze local supply. Carbon credit income further sweetens returns, helping growers justify the 5-7-year establishment lag.
South America, led by Brazil’s temperate zones, is emerging as a viable supplier for regional gluten-free food markets. In contrast, the Middle East and Africa remain niche, with Morocco as the only sizeable producer. As climate models project declining chill hours across the Mediterranean, investors eye northern France, the United Kingdom, and the Pacific Northwest of the United States as future hotspots, implying that the geographic map of the chestnuts commodity market will continue to evolve.
Recent Industry Developments
- February 2025: Heavy rain and floods hit a wide variety of crops, particularly in Europe, the Middle East, and Sub-Saharan Africa, including chestnut producers.
- December 2024: WCN Global Growers highlighted chestnuts as a pioneer crop for Western U.S. orchards, citing California and Oregon suitability.
- September 2024: Reforest'Action launched a USD 2.87 million initiative to regenerate 37,500 chestnut trees across 25 hectares in Greece’s Kastanologos grove.
- May 2024: Climate Asset Management bought a 1,900-hectare Iberian nut-orchard portfolio spanning walnuts and pistachios, signaling institutional appetite for tree-nut assets.
Research Methodology Framework and Report Scope
Market Definitions and Key Coverage
Our study defines the global chestnuts market as all cultivated Castanea nuts sold in fresh, dried, or lightly processed (shelled or vacuum-packed) form through retail, food-service, and industrial ingredient channels. Volume data combine orchard output and cross-border shipments that are then monetized using country-level average selling prices expressed in U.S. dollars.
Scope exclusion: Non-food derivatives such as tannin extracts, timber, and landscaping seedlings are outside this coverage.
Segmentation Overview
- By Geography (Production Analysis (Volume), Consumption Analysis (Volume and Value), Import Analysis (Volume and Value), Export Analysis (Volume and Value), and Price Trend Analysis)
- North America
- United States
- Canada
- South America
- Brazil
- Europe
- Spain
- Italy
- France
- Germany
- Asia-Pacific
- China
- Thailand
- Korea
- Japan
- Middle East
- Morocco
- Africa
- South Africa
- North America
Detailed Research Methodology and Data Validation
Primary Research
Mordor analysts interviewed orchard owners, processors, importers, and specialty retailers across Asia-Pacific, Europe, and North America. Conversations verified average farm yields, post-harvest loss rates, consignee-level prices, and the rising demand for gluten-free chestnut flour, allowing us to refine elasticity and substitution assumptions.
Desk Research
We began by mapping production and trade through FAO FAOSTAT, UN Comtrade, and Eurostat crop files, and then layered orchard acreage, yield, and subsidy disclosures from agriculture ministries in China, Italy, Turkey, and the United States. Climate anomaly records from NOAA flagged potential yield shocks, while weekly wholesale bulletins and customs declarations provided price curves. Insights from the International Nut and Dried Fruit Council, peer-reviewed agronomy papers, and company disclosures gathered via Dow Jones Factiva enriched context. Select paid assets such as D&B Hoovers for processor revenue splits and Volza for shipment-level checks added depth. These sources are illustrative; many additional documents supported data validation and research clarification.
Market-Sizing & Forecasting
A top-down reconstruction starts with national production plus net imports, and spoilage together with on-farm self-consumption factors are deducted to isolate marketable supply. Select bottom-up markers, processor throughput samples, and average selling price multiplied by sampled shipment volumes then cross-check totals. Key variables modeled include bearing-hectare expansion, average orchard yield, wholesale reference prices, per-capita nut intake, climatic chill-hour trends, and tariff changes. Five-year projections rely on multivariate regression blended with scenario analysis so temperature anomalies and income growth can modulate the baseline CAGR.
Data Validation & Update Cycle
Outputs pass three analyst reviews, where statistical outliers trigger re-contact with data providers. We refresh every twelve months, with ad hoc updates when pests, policy shifts, or bumper harvests materially alter the baseline, and a final sense check runs immediately before publication.
Why Mordor's Chestnuts Baseline Commands Reliability
Published estimates often diverge because firms vary scope, price conversion logic, and refresh timing. By anchoring value to commercially traded volumes and by annualizing orchard-level data, our figure remains comparable across regions.
Key gap drivers include whether self-consumed harvests are counted, the breadth of processed formats, and the way average prices are built. Some providers apply one Asian FOB price worldwide or stop at formal trade flows. Others exclude vacuum-packed product now dominant in Europe. Our disciplined variable set and yearly refresh narrow these gaps.
Benchmark comparison
| Market Size | Anonymized source | Primary gap driver |
|---|---|---|
| USD 4.10 Bn (2025) | Mordor Intelligence | - |
| USD 4.34 Bn (2024) | Sector Research Firm A | Counts only formal trade and applies a single global average price |
| USD 3.50 Bn (2024) | Global Consultancy B | Surveys limited countries and omits post-harvest losses plus vacuum-packed sales |
| USD 3.60 Bn (2023) | Regional Consultancy C | Converts volume to value using one ASP and excludes dried nut segment |
Taken together, the comparison shows that narrow scope definitions or static pricing can push numbers up or down. Mordor's annually refreshed, variable-rich model delivers a balanced, transparent baseline that decision-makers can trust.
Key Questions Answered in the Report
What is the current size of the chestnuts commodity market?
The chestnuts commodity market size reached USD 4.1 billion in 2025 and is projected to climb to USD 5.0 billion by 2030 at a 4.0% CAGR.
Which region holds the biggest share of global chestnut revenue?
Asia-Pacific leads with 71.2% of chestnuts commodity market share, the overwhelming production capacity.
How are carbon credits influencing chestnut orchard economics?
Mature orchards sequester 2.5-4.0 metric tons of CO₂ per acre annually, generating USD 50-200 per acre in carbon-credit revenue that shortens payback periods for new plantings.
What are the main challenges facing chestnut growers in Europe?
Warm winters reduce required chill hours, cutting yields by up to 60% in southern zones, while tightening phytosanitary rules add USD 0.15-0.25 per pound to export costs.
How does mechanization impact harvesting costs?
Commercial harvesters can cut manual labor requirements by 60-70% and lower nut losses to 6-8%, but equipment costs of USD 150,000-250,000 limit uptake among small farms.
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