Walnut Market Size and Share

Walnut Market (2026 - 2031)

Walnut Market Analysis by Mordor Intelligence

The walnut market size is estimated to be USD 9.68 billion in 2026 and is projected to reach USD 13.91 billion by 2031, growing at a 7.52% CAGR during the forecast period. The rising demand for plant-based protein snacks, premiumization in emerging economies, and the expanding use of walnuts in dairy alternatives continue to propel revenue growth. Shelled, premium-grade kernels are growing at a 9.8% annual pace as manufacturers favor ingredient-ready formats that shorten processing times and improve convenience. Asia commands a significant portion of the production value in 2025 and also records the fastest regional advance from 2026 to 2031, fueled by acreage expansion in China and India. Government climate-smart subsidies and blockchain-enabled traceability premiums help offset water and labor constraints, sustaining long-run profitability for orchard owners.

Key Report Takeaways

By form, in-shell walnuts led with a 60% of the walnut market share in 2025, while shelled premium kernels are expanding at a 9.8% CAGR through 2031.

By geography, the Asia-Pacific region dominated the walnut market size with 65% value share in 2025 and is projected to record the fastest CAGR of 8.0% from 2026 to 2031.

Note: Market size and forecast figures in this report are generated using Mordor Intelligence’s proprietary estimation framework, updated with the latest available data and insights as of January 2026.

Segment Analysis

By Form: Shelled Kernels Extend Value Leadership

In-shell walnuts accounted for 60% of the walnut market share in 2025. In-shell walnuts continue to attract consumers in China, Iran, and Turkey, where the shell serves as a signal of freshness and authenticity. Even there, urban lifestyles and tighter schedules are nudging shoppers toward shelled kernels that remove the work of home cracking. Value-added processing keeps margins healthy. Shelled kernels sell for USD 6,500–8,500 per metric ton, while in-shell nuts bring only USD 3,000–4,000. Brands are investing in resealable, nitrogen-flushed pouches that stretch shelf life to 18 months and protect omega-3 oils from rancidity. Flavor launches are accelerating, too. Roasted-and-salted, honey-glazed, and chili-lime options captured 22% of North American retail sales in 2025, up from 14% in 2023. Food-service chains are incorporating walnut pieces into salads, grain bowls, and bakery items to highlight the benefits of plant-based protein and heart health. Costco and Whole Foods saw private-label kernel sales rise 18% in 2025, supported by single-serve packs that fit on-the-go snacking habits. Competition is squeezing commodity-grade margins, yet suppliers that invest in origin branding, omega-3 claims, and traceable sourcing continue to secure premiums.

The shelled premium kernels are projected to grow at a CAGR of 9.8% through 2031. Demand for shelled formats is rising because shoppers want ready-to-eat snacks, ingredient-ready nuts for baking and cooking, and plant-based dairy products that call for pre-processed kernels. Processors such as Olam Food Ingredients and Borges Agricultural and Industrial Nuts increased their shelling and sorting capacity by 15% after 2024. Their new color sorters and laser graders now separate light halves, light pieces, and amber kernels with precision that meets the demands of premium buyers. The latest electronic graders screen more than 2 metric tons per hour, identifying defects that would have been missed in manual checks, allowing suppliers to charge 15–25% more for extra-light halves with uniform color and smooth surfaces.

Walnut Market: Market Share by Form

Note: Segment shares of all individual segments available upon report purchase

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Geography Analysis

Asia-Pacific remained the clear anchor of the walnut market. The region accounted for 65% of the walnut market value in 2025 and is projected to grow at an 8.0% CAGR between 2026 and 2031. China produced more than 1.1 million metric tons in 2025 and consumed nearly all of it, yet it still imported premium kernels to satisfy the rising demand for light halves. India’s import needs continued to climb as organized retail spread into tier-two cities, while Japan and South Korea provided a steady pull for United States and Chilean origins.

North America supplied a smaller but still meaningful portion of global volume. The United States harvest in 2024 was impacted by drought in California’s Central Valley, and water allocations remain tight, encouraging investment in drip irrigation and high-density plantings. Canada filled domestic snack manufacturing needs with imports, and Mexico’s orchards in Chihuahua and Sonora gained acreage on the back of favorable United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement terms. Across the Atlantic, European producers in France, Romania, and Ukraine worked to modernize aging orchards even as import dependence persisted, particularly for premium kernel grades.

South America relies primarily on Chile, whose counter-season harvest provides exporters with a prized off-season window, offering premium pricing in Asia and Europe. Peru and Brazil continued to expand small orchards, but they still face logistics bottlenecks that limit export scale. In the Middle East, Iran’s large crop struggled under trade sanctions, channeling much of its kernels through gray routes, while Turkey’s growers balanced domestic demand with small but stable sales to Western Europe. Africa’s output stayed modest, yet pilot plantings in Morocco and Egypt hinted at long-term diversification in suitable mountain zones.

Walnut Market CAGR (%), Growth Rate by Region
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Competitive Landscape

Walnut production and sales remain highly fragmented, with smallholder growers cultivating the majority of the global acreage and relying on cooperative marketing systems to reach export buyers. In China, more than 2 million farms manage orchards of only 2–5 hectares and rely on local traders who pool volumes for wholesale markets, limiting individual bargaining power. California offers a different model, built on grower-owned cooperatives such as Diamond Walnut Growers, which negotiate multi-year contracts with retailers and overseas importers, helping member farms stabilize their income during price swings. Cooperative structures also support research into drought-tolerant rootstocks, mechanized harvesting, and blockchain traceability, which can help increase export premiums.

Chile presents a mixed landscape in which large vertically integrated orchards operate alongside thousands of smallholders who funnel nuts through regional cooperatives or independent exporters. Quality variation and limited cold storage often force smaller growers to accept discounts, which encourages ongoing investment in optical sorting, on-farm drying, and shared packing facilities. Consolidation is accelerating in water-stressed areas; farmland investment trusts acquired roughly 8,000 acres of California orchards during 2024 and 2025, converting them to high-density plantings with drip irrigation and mechanical shakers that trim per-acre costs by up to one-third. Similar capital inflows are beginning to appear in Chile’s Maule and O’Higgins regions, signaling a greater scale and adoption of technology over the next five years.

New go-to-market strategies are reshaping competition across origins. Contract farming has gained traction in India and Turkey, where exporters pre-finance inputs and provide agronomic advice in return for exclusive purchase rights, thereby improving kernel consistency while shifting price risk to growers. Direct-to-consumer channels are also expanding; cooperatives in California and Chile launched e-commerce storefronts in 2025 that bypass wholesale intermediaries, thereby boosting farm-gate returns for participating members. Processors continue to deploy blockchain-ledgers and satellite provenance tools to verify orchard practices, and early adopters are capturing meaningful premiums in European Union and North American retail programs focused on sustainability and transparency.

Recent Industry Developments

  • May 2025: India’s suspension of trade ties with Pakistan has boosted Kashmir’s walnut industry, halting the influx of cheaper Afghan walnuts and raising local prices by 15–20%.
  • May 2025: California walnut prices surged to USD 1,720 per metric ton in 2024, nearly doubling from 2023 and tripling 2022 levels.
  • February 2025: The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) Economic Research Service released an analysis of tariff increases affecting U.S. walnut exports to Turkey, modeling potential trade impacts.

Table of Contents for Walnut Industry Report

1. Introduction

  • 1.1 Study Assumptions and Market Definition
  • 1.2 Scope of the Study

2. Research Methodology

3. Executive Summary

4. Market Landscape

  • 4.1 Market Overview
  • 4.2 Market Drivers
    • 4.2.1 Government support programs and subsidy extensions for walnut orchards
    • 4.2.2 Rising demand for plant-based protein and healthy snacking
    • 4.2.3 Premiumization in emerging consumer markets
    • 4.2.4 Carbon-sequestration credits and agro-forestry income stacking
    • 4.2.5 Surge in walnut usage in plant-based dairy and nut-protein beverages
    • 4.2.6 Blockchain-enabled origin traceability boosting export premiums
  • 4.3 Market Restraints
    • 4.3.1 High water footprint and increasing irrigation restrictions
    • 4.3.2 Rising orchard labor scarcity and picking costs
    • 4.3.3 Pest and disease outbreaks
    • 4.3.4 Geopolitical trade sanctions on leading exporters
  • 4.4 Opportunities
  • 4.5 Challenges
  • 4.6 Value Chain Analysis
  • 4.7 Technologies and usage of AI in the Industry
  • 4.8 Input Market Analysis
    • 4.8.1 Feed
    • 4.8.2 Feed Additives
  • 4.9 Distribution Channel Analysis
  • 4.10 Market Sentiment Analysis
  • 4.11 PESTLE Analysis

5. Market Size and Growth Forecasts (Value and Volume)

  • 5.1 By Geography
    • 5.1.1 North America
    • 5.1.1.1 United States
    • 5.1.1.1.1 Production Analysis (Area Harvested, Yield, and Production Volume)
    • 5.1.1.1.2 Consumption Analysis (Consumption Value and Volume)
    • 5.1.1.1.3 Import Market Analysis (Import Value, Volume, and Key Supplying Markets)
    • 5.1.1.1.4 Export Market Analysis (Export Value, Volume, and Key Destination Markets)
    • 5.1.1.1.5 Wholesale Price Trend Analysis and Forecast
    • 5.1.1.1.6 Regulatory Framework
    • 5.1.1.1.7 List of Key Players
    • 5.1.1.1.8 Logistics and Infrastructure
    • 5.1.1.1.9 Seasonality Analysis
    • 5.1.1.2 Mexico
    • 5.1.1.2.1 Production Analysis (Area Harvested, Yield, and Production Volume)
    • 5.1.1.2.2 Consumption Analysis (Consumption Value and Volume)
    • 5.1.1.2.3 Import Market Analysis (Import Value, Volume, and Key Supplying Markets)
    • 5.1.1.2.4 Export Market Analysis (Export Value, Volume, and Key Destination Markets)
    • 5.1.1.2.5 Wholesale Price Trend Analysis and Forecast
    • 5.1.1.2.6 Regulatory Framework
    • 5.1.1.2.7 List of Key Players
    • 5.1.1.2.8 Logistics and Infrastructure
    • 5.1.1.2.9 Seasonality Analysis
    • 5.1.2 Europe
    • 5.1.2.1 France
    • 5.1.2.1.1 Production Analysis (Area Harvested, Yield, and Production Volume)
    • 5.1.2.1.2 Consumption Analysis (Consumption Value and Volume)
    • 5.1.2.1.3 Import Market Analysis (Import Value, Volume, and Key Supplying Markets)
    • 5.1.2.1.4 Export Market Analysis (Export Value, Volume, and Key Destination Markets)
    • 5.1.2.1.5 Wholesale Price Trend Analysis and Forecast
    • 5.1.2.1.6 Regulatory Framework
    • 5.1.2.1.7 List of Key Players
    • 5.1.2.1.8 Logistics and Infrastructure
    • 5.1.2.1.9 Seasonality Analysis
    • 5.1.2.2 Ukraine
    • 5.1.2.2.1 Production Analysis (Area Harvested, Yield, and Production Volume)
    • 5.1.2.2.2 Consumption Analysis (Consumption Value and Volume)
    • 5.1.2.2.3 Import Market Analysis (Import Value, Volume, and Key Supplying Markets)
    • 5.1.2.2.4 Export Market Analysis (Export Value, Volume, and Key Destination Markets)
    • 5.1.2.2.5 Wholesale Price Trend Analysis and Forecast
    • 5.1.2.2.6 Regulatory Framework
    • 5.1.2.2.7 List of Key Players
    • 5.1.2.2.8 Logistics and Infrastructure
    • 5.1.2.2.9 Seasonality Analysis
    • 5.1.2.3 Germany
    • 5.1.2.3.1 Production Analysis (Area Harvested, Yield, and Production Volume)
    • 5.1.2.3.2 Consumption Analysis (Consumption Value and Volume)
    • 5.1.2.3.3 Import Market Analysis (Import Value, Volume, and Key Supplying Markets)
    • 5.1.2.3.4 Export Market Analysis (Export Value, Volume, and Key Destination Markets)
    • 5.1.2.3.5 Wholesale Price Trend Analysis and Forecast
    • 5.1.2.3.6 Regulatory Framework
    • 5.1.2.3.7 List of Key Players
    • 5.1.2.3.8 Logistics and Infrastructure
    • 5.1.2.3.9 Seasonality Analysis
    • 5.1.2.4 Italy
    • 5.1.2.4.1 Production Analysis (Area Harvested, Yield, and Production Volume)
    • 5.1.2.4.2 Consumption Analysis (Consumption Value and Volume)
    • 5.1.2.4.3 Import Market Analysis (Import Value, Volume, and Key Supplying Markets)
    • 5.1.2.4.4 Export Market Analysis (Export Value, Volume, and Key Destination Markets)
    • 5.1.2.4.5 Wholesale Price Trend Analysis and Forecast
    • 5.1.2.4.6 Regulatory Framework
    • 5.1.2.4.7 List of Key Players
    • 5.1.2.4.8 Logistics and Infrastructure
    • 5.1.2.4.9 Seasonality Analysis
    • 5.1.2.5 Spain
    • 5.1.2.5.1 Production Analysis (Area Harvested, Yield, and Production Volume)
    • 5.1.2.5.2 Consumption Analysis (Consumption Value and Volume)
    • 5.1.2.5.3 Import Market Analysis (Import Value, Volume, and Key Supplying Markets)
    • 5.1.2.5.4 Export Market Analysis (Export Value, Volume, and Key Destination Markets)
    • 5.1.2.5.5 Wholesale Price Trend Analysis and Forecast
    • 5.1.2.5.6 Regulatory Framework
    • 5.1.2.5.7 List of Key Players
    • 5.1.2.5.8 Logistics and Infrastructure
    • 5.1.2.5.9 Seasonality Analysis
    • 5.1.2.6 Netherlands
    • 5.1.2.6.1 Production Analysis (Area Harvested, Yield, and Production Volume)
    • 5.1.2.6.2 Consumption Analysis (Consumption Value and Volume)
    • 5.1.2.6.3 Import Market Analysis (Import Value, Volume, and Key Supplying Markets)
    • 5.1.2.6.4 Export Market Analysis (Export Value, Volume, and Key Destination Markets)
    • 5.1.2.6.5 Wholesale Price Trend Analysis and Forecast
    • 5.1.2.6.6 Regulatory Framework
    • 5.1.2.6.7 List of Key Players
    • 5.1.2.6.8 Logistics and Infrastructure
    • 5.1.2.6.9 Seasonality Analysis
    • 5.1.3 Asia-Pacific
    • 5.1.3.1 China
    • 5.1.3.1.1 Production Analysis (Area Harvested, Yield, and Production Volume)
    • 5.1.3.1.2 Consumption Analysis (Consumption Value and Volume)
    • 5.1.3.1.3 Import Market Analysis (Import Value, Volume, and Key Supplying Markets)
    • 5.1.3.1.4 Export Market Analysis (Export Value, Volume, and Key Destination Markets)
    • 5.1.3.1.5 Wholesale Price Trend Analysis and Forecast
    • 5.1.3.1.6 Regulatory Framework
    • 5.1.3.1.7 List of Key Players
    • 5.1.3.1.8 Logistics and Infrastructure
    • 5.1.3.1.9 Seasonality Analysis
    • 5.1.3.2 India
    • 5.1.3.2.1 Production Analysis (Area Harvested, Yield, and Production Volume)
    • 5.1.3.2.2 Consumption Analysis (Consumption Value and Volume)
    • 5.1.3.2.3 Import Market Analysis (Import Value, Volume, and Key Supplying Markets)
    • 5.1.3.2.4 Export Market Analysis (Export Value, Volume, and Key Destination Markets)
    • 5.1.3.2.5 Wholesale Price Trend Analysis and Forecast
    • 5.1.3.2.6 Regulatory Framework
    • 5.1.3.2.7 List of Key Players
    • 5.1.3.2.8 Logistics and Infrastructure
    • 5.1.3.2.9 Seasonality Analysis
    • 5.1.3.3 Japan
    • 5.1.3.3.1 Production Analysis (Area Harvested, Yield, and Production Volume)
    • 5.1.3.3.2 Consumption Analysis (Consumption Value and Volume)
    • 5.1.3.3.3 Import Market Analysis (Import Value, Volume, and Key Supplying Markets)
    • 5.1.3.3.4 Export Market Analysis (Export Value, Volume, and Key Destination Markets)
    • 5.1.3.3.5 Wholesale Price Trend Analysis and Forecast
    • 5.1.3.3.6 Regulatory Framework
    • 5.1.3.3.7 List of Key Players
    • 5.1.3.3.8 Logistics and Infrastructure
    • 5.1.3.3.9 Seasonality Analysis
    • 5.1.3.4 South Korea
    • 5.1.3.4.1 Production Analysis (Area Harvested, Yield, and Production Volume)
    • 5.1.3.4.2 Consumption Analysis (Consumption Value and Volume)
    • 5.1.3.4.3 Import Market Analysis (Import Value, Volume, and Key Supplying Markets)
    • 5.1.3.4.4 Export Market Analysis (Export Value, Volume, and Key Destination Markets)
    • 5.1.3.4.5 Wholesale Price Trend Analysis and Forecast
    • 5.1.3.4.6 Regulatory Framework
    • 5.1.3.4.7 List of Key Players
    • 5.1.3.4.8 Logistics and Infrastructure
    • 5.1.3.4.9 Seasonality Analysis
    • 5.1.3.5 Australia
    • 5.1.3.5.1 Production Analysis (Area Harvested, Yield, and Production Volume)
    • 5.1.3.5.2 Consumption Analysis (Consumption Value and Volume)
    • 5.1.3.5.3 Import Market Analysis (Import Value, Volume, and Key Supplying Markets)
    • 5.1.3.5.4 Export Market Analysis (Export Value, Volume, and Key Destination Markets)
    • 5.1.3.5.5 Wholesale Price Trend Analysis and Forecast
    • 5.1.3.5.6 Regulatory Framework
    • 5.1.3.5.7 List of Key Players
    • 5.1.3.5.8 Logistics and Infrastructure
    • 5.1.3.5.9 Seasonality Analysis
    • 5.1.4 Middle East
    • 5.1.4.1 Iran
    • 5.1.4.1.1 Production Analysis (Area Harvested, Yield, and Production Volume)
    • 5.1.4.1.2 Consumption Analysis (Consumption Value and Volume)
    • 5.1.4.1.3 Import Market Analysis (Import Value, Volume, and Key Supplying Markets)
    • 5.1.4.1.4 Export Market Analysis (Export Value, Volume, and Key Destination Markets)
    • 5.1.4.1.5 Wholesale Price Trend Analysis and Forecast
    • 5.1.4.1.6 Regulatory Framework
    • 5.1.4.1.7 List of Key Players
    • 5.1.4.1.8 Logistics and Infrastructure
    • 5.1.4.1.9 Seasonality Analysis
    • 5.1.4.2 Turkey
    • 5.1.4.2.1 Production Analysis (Area Harvested, Yield, and Production Volume)
    • 5.1.4.2.2 Consumption Analysis (Consumption Value and Volume)
    • 5.1.4.2.3 Import Market Analysis (Import Value, Volume, and Key Supplying Markets)
    • 5.1.4.2.4 Export Market Analysis (Export Value, Volume, and Key Destination Markets)
    • 5.1.4.2.5 Wholesale Price Trend Analysis and Forecast
    • 5.1.4.2.6 Regulatory Framework
    • 5.1.4.2.7 List of Key Players
    • 5.1.4.2.8 Logistics and Infrastructure
    • 5.1.4.2.9 Seasonality Analysis
    • 5.1.5 Africa
    • 5.1.5.1 Egypt
    • 5.1.5.1.1 Production Analysis (Area Harvested, Yield, and Production Volume)
    • 5.1.5.1.2 Consumption Analysis (Consumption Value and Volume)
    • 5.1.5.1.3 Import Market Analysis (Import Value, Volume, and Key Supplying Markets)
    • 5.1.5.1.4 Export Market Analysis (Export Value, Volume, and Key Destination Markets)
    • 5.1.5.1.5 Wholesale Price Trend Analysis and Forecast
    • 5.1.5.1.6 Regulatory Framework
    • 5.1.5.1.7 List of Key Players
    • 5.1.5.1.8 Logistics and Infrastructure
    • 5.1.5.1.9 Seasonality Analysis
    • 5.1.5.2 Morocco
    • 5.1.5.2.1 Production Analysis (Area Harvested, Yield, and Production Volume)
    • 5.1.5.2.2 Consumption Analysis (Consumption Value and Volume)
    • 5.1.5.2.3 Import Market Analysis (Import Value, Volume, and Key Supplying Markets)
    • 5.1.5.2.4 Export Market Analysis (Export Value, Volume, and Key Destination Markets)
    • 5.1.5.2.5 Wholesale Price Trend Analysis and Forecast
    • 5.1.5.2.6 Regulatory Framework
    • 5.1.5.2.7 List of Key Players
    • 5.1.5.2.8 Logistics and Infrastructure
    • 5.1.5.2.9 Seasonality Analysis
    • 5.1.6 South America
    • 5.1.6.1 Chile
    • 5.1.6.1.1 Production Analysis (Area Harvested, Yield, and Production Volume)
    • 5.1.6.1.2 Consumption Analysis (Consumption Value and Volume)
    • 5.1.6.1.3 Import Market Analysis (Import Value, Volume, and Key Supplying Markets)
    • 5.1.6.1.4 Export Market Analysis (Export Value, Volume, and Key Destination Markets)
    • 5.1.6.1.5 Wholesale Price Trend Analysis and Forecast
    • 5.1.6.1.6 Regulatory Framework
    • 5.1.6.1.7 List of Key Players
    • 5.1.6.1.8 Logistics and Infrastructure
    • 5.1.6.1.9 Seasonality Analysis
    • 5.1.6.2 Brazil
    • 5.1.6.2.1 Production Analysis (Area Harvested, Yield, and Production Volume)
    • 5.1.6.2.2 Consumption Analysis (Consumption Value and Volume)
    • 5.1.6.2.3 Import Market Analysis (Import Value, Volume, and Key Supplying Markets)
    • 5.1.6.2.4 Export Market Analysis (Export Value, Volume, and Key Destination Markets)
    • 5.1.6.2.5 Wholesale Price Trend Analysis and Forecast
    • 5.1.6.2.6 Regulatory Framework
    • 5.1.6.2.7 List of Key Players
    • 5.1.6.2.8 Logistics and Infrastructure
    • 5.1.6.2.9 Seasonality Analysis
    • 5.1.6.3 Peru
    • 5.1.6.3.1 Production Analysis (Area Harvested, Yield, and Production Volume)
    • 5.1.6.3.2 Consumption Analysis (Consumption Value and Volume)
    • 5.1.6.3.3 Import Market Analysis (Import Value, Volume, and Key Supplying Markets)
    • 5.1.6.3.4 Export Market Analysis (Export Value, Volume, and Key Destination Markets)
    • 5.1.6.3.5 Wholesale Price Trend Analysis and Forecast
    • 5.1.6.3.6 Regulatory Framework
    • 5.1.6.3.7 List of Key Players
    • 5.1.6.3.8 Logistics and Infrastructure
    • 5.1.6.3.9 Seasonality Analysis
  • 5.2 By Form (Value)
    • 5.2.1 In-shell
    • 5.2.2 Shelled

6. End Use Applications and Industries

  • 6.1 Primary Applications and Emerging Applications
  • 6.2 Consumption Breakdown by Industries

7. Competitive Landscape

  • 7.1 Overview of the Competition
  • 7.2 Recent Developments
  • 7.3 Market Concentration Analysis

8. Market Opportunities and Future Outlook

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Research Methodology Framework and Report Scope

Market Definitions and Key Coverage

Our study defines the global walnut market as the value of all edible walnuts, English and black, sold for food, nut-based ingredients, oil crushing, and personal-care formulations, measured at ex-factory/processor level in US dollars. Production, trade, and retail channels are followed where they materially influence processor revenue.

Scope exclusion: timber-grade walnut wood, walnut-derived chemicals for industrial use, and any mixed "tree-nut" blends whose individual walnut value cannot be isolated are excluded from sizing.

Segmentation Overview

  • By Geography
    • North America
      • United States
        • Production Analysis (Area Harvested, Yield, and Production Volume)
        • Consumption Analysis (Consumption Value and Volume)
        • Import Market Analysis (Import Value, Volume, and Key Supplying Markets)
        • Export Market Analysis (Export Value, Volume, and Key Destination Markets)
        • Wholesale Price Trend Analysis and Forecast
        • Regulatory Framework
        • List of Key Players
        • Logistics and Infrastructure
        • Seasonality Analysis
      • Mexico
        • Production Analysis (Area Harvested, Yield, and Production Volume)
        • Consumption Analysis (Consumption Value and Volume)
        • Import Market Analysis (Import Value, Volume, and Key Supplying Markets)
        • Export Market Analysis (Export Value, Volume, and Key Destination Markets)
        • Wholesale Price Trend Analysis and Forecast
        • Regulatory Framework
        • List of Key Players
        • Logistics and Infrastructure
        • Seasonality Analysis
    • Europe
      • France
        • Production Analysis (Area Harvested, Yield, and Production Volume)
        • Consumption Analysis (Consumption Value and Volume)
        • Import Market Analysis (Import Value, Volume, and Key Supplying Markets)
        • Export Market Analysis (Export Value, Volume, and Key Destination Markets)
        • Wholesale Price Trend Analysis and Forecast
        • Regulatory Framework
        • List of Key Players
        • Logistics and Infrastructure
        • Seasonality Analysis
      • Ukraine
        • Production Analysis (Area Harvested, Yield, and Production Volume)
        • Consumption Analysis (Consumption Value and Volume)
        • Import Market Analysis (Import Value, Volume, and Key Supplying Markets)
        • Export Market Analysis (Export Value, Volume, and Key Destination Markets)
        • Wholesale Price Trend Analysis and Forecast
        • Regulatory Framework
        • List of Key Players
        • Logistics and Infrastructure
        • Seasonality Analysis
      • Germany
        • Production Analysis (Area Harvested, Yield, and Production Volume)
        • Consumption Analysis (Consumption Value and Volume)
        • Import Market Analysis (Import Value, Volume, and Key Supplying Markets)
        • Export Market Analysis (Export Value, Volume, and Key Destination Markets)
        • Wholesale Price Trend Analysis and Forecast
        • Regulatory Framework
        • List of Key Players
        • Logistics and Infrastructure
        • Seasonality Analysis
      • Italy
        • Production Analysis (Area Harvested, Yield, and Production Volume)
        • Consumption Analysis (Consumption Value and Volume)
        • Import Market Analysis (Import Value, Volume, and Key Supplying Markets)
        • Export Market Analysis (Export Value, Volume, and Key Destination Markets)
        • Wholesale Price Trend Analysis and Forecast
        • Regulatory Framework
        • List of Key Players
        • Logistics and Infrastructure
        • Seasonality Analysis
      • Spain
        • Production Analysis (Area Harvested, Yield, and Production Volume)
        • Consumption Analysis (Consumption Value and Volume)
        • Import Market Analysis (Import Value, Volume, and Key Supplying Markets)
        • Export Market Analysis (Export Value, Volume, and Key Destination Markets)
        • Wholesale Price Trend Analysis and Forecast
        • Regulatory Framework
        • List of Key Players
        • Logistics and Infrastructure
        • Seasonality Analysis
      • Netherlands
        • Production Analysis (Area Harvested, Yield, and Production Volume)
        • Consumption Analysis (Consumption Value and Volume)
        • Import Market Analysis (Import Value, Volume, and Key Supplying Markets)
        • Export Market Analysis (Export Value, Volume, and Key Destination Markets)
        • Wholesale Price Trend Analysis and Forecast
        • Regulatory Framework
        • List of Key Players
        • Logistics and Infrastructure
        • Seasonality Analysis
    • Asia-Pacific
      • China
        • Production Analysis (Area Harvested, Yield, and Production Volume)
        • Consumption Analysis (Consumption Value and Volume)
        • Import Market Analysis (Import Value, Volume, and Key Supplying Markets)
        • Export Market Analysis (Export Value, Volume, and Key Destination Markets)
        • Wholesale Price Trend Analysis and Forecast
        • Regulatory Framework
        • List of Key Players
        • Logistics and Infrastructure
        • Seasonality Analysis
      • India
        • Production Analysis (Area Harvested, Yield, and Production Volume)
        • Consumption Analysis (Consumption Value and Volume)
        • Import Market Analysis (Import Value, Volume, and Key Supplying Markets)
        • Export Market Analysis (Export Value, Volume, and Key Destination Markets)
        • Wholesale Price Trend Analysis and Forecast
        • Regulatory Framework
        • List of Key Players
        • Logistics and Infrastructure
        • Seasonality Analysis
      • Japan
        • Production Analysis (Area Harvested, Yield, and Production Volume)
        • Consumption Analysis (Consumption Value and Volume)
        • Import Market Analysis (Import Value, Volume, and Key Supplying Markets)
        • Export Market Analysis (Export Value, Volume, and Key Destination Markets)
        • Wholesale Price Trend Analysis and Forecast
        • Regulatory Framework
        • List of Key Players
        • Logistics and Infrastructure
        • Seasonality Analysis
      • South Korea
        • Production Analysis (Area Harvested, Yield, and Production Volume)
        • Consumption Analysis (Consumption Value and Volume)
        • Import Market Analysis (Import Value, Volume, and Key Supplying Markets)
        • Export Market Analysis (Export Value, Volume, and Key Destination Markets)
        • Wholesale Price Trend Analysis and Forecast
        • Regulatory Framework
        • List of Key Players
        • Logistics and Infrastructure
        • Seasonality Analysis
      • Australia
        • Production Analysis (Area Harvested, Yield, and Production Volume)
        • Consumption Analysis (Consumption Value and Volume)
        • Import Market Analysis (Import Value, Volume, and Key Supplying Markets)
        • Export Market Analysis (Export Value, Volume, and Key Destination Markets)
        • Wholesale Price Trend Analysis and Forecast
        • Regulatory Framework
        • List of Key Players
        • Logistics and Infrastructure
        • Seasonality Analysis
    • Middle East
      • Iran
        • Production Analysis (Area Harvested, Yield, and Production Volume)
        • Consumption Analysis (Consumption Value and Volume)
        • Import Market Analysis (Import Value, Volume, and Key Supplying Markets)
        • Export Market Analysis (Export Value, Volume, and Key Destination Markets)
        • Wholesale Price Trend Analysis and Forecast
        • Regulatory Framework
        • List of Key Players
        • Logistics and Infrastructure
        • Seasonality Analysis
      • Turkey
        • Production Analysis (Area Harvested, Yield, and Production Volume)
        • Consumption Analysis (Consumption Value and Volume)
        • Import Market Analysis (Import Value, Volume, and Key Supplying Markets)
        • Export Market Analysis (Export Value, Volume, and Key Destination Markets)
        • Wholesale Price Trend Analysis and Forecast
        • Regulatory Framework
        • List of Key Players
        • Logistics and Infrastructure
        • Seasonality Analysis
    • Africa
      • Egypt
        • Production Analysis (Area Harvested, Yield, and Production Volume)
        • Consumption Analysis (Consumption Value and Volume)
        • Import Market Analysis (Import Value, Volume, and Key Supplying Markets)
        • Export Market Analysis (Export Value, Volume, and Key Destination Markets)
        • Wholesale Price Trend Analysis and Forecast
        • Regulatory Framework
        • List of Key Players
        • Logistics and Infrastructure
        • Seasonality Analysis
      • Morocco
        • Production Analysis (Area Harvested, Yield, and Production Volume)
        • Consumption Analysis (Consumption Value and Volume)
        • Import Market Analysis (Import Value, Volume, and Key Supplying Markets)
        • Export Market Analysis (Export Value, Volume, and Key Destination Markets)
        • Wholesale Price Trend Analysis and Forecast
        • Regulatory Framework
        • List of Key Players
        • Logistics and Infrastructure
        • Seasonality Analysis
    • South America
      • Chile
        • Production Analysis (Area Harvested, Yield, and Production Volume)
        • Consumption Analysis (Consumption Value and Volume)
        • Import Market Analysis (Import Value, Volume, and Key Supplying Markets)
        • Export Market Analysis (Export Value, Volume, and Key Destination Markets)
        • Wholesale Price Trend Analysis and Forecast
        • Regulatory Framework
        • List of Key Players
        • Logistics and Infrastructure
        • Seasonality Analysis
      • Brazil
        • Production Analysis (Area Harvested, Yield, and Production Volume)
        • Consumption Analysis (Consumption Value and Volume)
        • Import Market Analysis (Import Value, Volume, and Key Supplying Markets)
        • Export Market Analysis (Export Value, Volume, and Key Destination Markets)
        • Wholesale Price Trend Analysis and Forecast
        • Regulatory Framework
        • List of Key Players
        • Logistics and Infrastructure
        • Seasonality Analysis
      • Peru
        • Production Analysis (Area Harvested, Yield, and Production Volume)
        • Consumption Analysis (Consumption Value and Volume)
        • Import Market Analysis (Import Value, Volume, and Key Supplying Markets)
        • Export Market Analysis (Export Value, Volume, and Key Destination Markets)
        • Wholesale Price Trend Analysis and Forecast
        • Regulatory Framework
        • List of Key Players
        • Logistics and Infrastructure
        • Seasonality Analysis
  • By Form (Value)
    • In-shell
    • Shelled

Detailed Research Methodology and Data Validation

Primary Research

Mordor analysts spoke with growers' cooperatives in California and Xinjiang, exporters in Chile, European snack-food formulators, and Asian online grocery buyers. These interviews confirmed crack-out ratios, typical ASP mark-ups, and near-term demand shifts (e.g., Middle-East premium gifting), letting us reconcile desk estimates and adjust substitution elasticities.

Desk Research

We began with agricultural supply data from bodies such as the USDA, China's National Bureau of Statistics, and Chile's Office of Agricultural Studies, then reviewed trade flows in UN Comtrade and Volza shipment records to track in-shell versus shelled movement. Consumption drivers were drawn from FAO food-balance sheets, WHO nutrition surveys, and price series compiled by the International Nut & Dried Fruit Council.

Company filings, investor decks, retail scanner data, and reputable business press complemented these public sources, while D&B Hoovers furnished processor financials that anchor average selling price (ASP) assumptions. Dow Jones Factiva and Questel patent counts helped us map emerging product lines such as walnut butter and plant-based milk. This list is illustrative; many additional references supported validation and clarification.

Market-Sizing & Forecasting

A top-down supply-use reconstruction begins with 2024 production plus carry-in, subtracts industrial seed and waste, and values edible volume at weighted ASPs by form. Results are cross-checked through selective bottom-up roll-ups of leading processor revenue sampled via Tofler and channel checks. Key model variables include bearing acreage, average yield, crack-out %, regional per-capita intake, and retail price spreads. A multivariate regression, fed by five-year seasonality and income elasticity, projects these drivers; scenario analysis then layers tariff or climate shocks before the final forecast is locked.

Data Validation & Update Cycle

Outputs pass anomaly filters, peer review, and a second analyst audit. We refresh every twelve months and trigger interim updates when weather events, policy changes, or >10% price swings occur. A final pre-publication sweep ensures clients receive the newest view.

Why Mordor's Walnut Baseline Commands Reliability

Published numbers vary because firms pick different base years, include semi-processed nuts, or roll hardwood revenue into nut totals.

Benchmark comparison

Market SizeAnonymized sourcePrimary gap driver
USD 8.50 B (2025) Mordor Intelligence-
USD 8.31 B (2024) Global Consultancy ATreats 2024 drought-affected output as steady-state and omits informal trade, inflating CAGR
USD 7.60 B (2022) Industry Journal BOlder baseline and excludes cosmetic-grade oil, under-representing high-margin demand

Differences show that scope discipline, annual refresh, and dual validation steps let Mordor deliver a balanced, transparent baseline investors can trust.

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Key Questions Answered in the Report

What is the current size and projected growth of the walnut market?

The walnut market posted USD 9.68 billion in 2026 and is set to reach USD 13.91 billion by 2031, reflecting a 7.52% CAGR.

Which product form is expanding fastest within global walnut trade?

Shelled premium kernels are the fastest, advancing at a 9.8% CAGR through 2031 as convenience and ingredient-ready formats gain favor.

Which region dominates walnut production value?

Asia-Pacific leads with 65% of production value in 2026 and will grow at an 8.0% CAGR during 2026-2031, driven mainly by China and India

How are carbon credits influencing walnut orchard economics?

Walnut orchards sequester 1.5–2.0 metric tons of CO₂ per acre, enabling growers to sell carbon credits valued at USD 30–100 per metric ton and add up to USD 75 per acre in California in 2025.

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