Walnut Market Size & Share Analysis - Growth Trends & Forecasts (2025 - 2030)

Global Walnut Market Trends and Insights

Government Support Programs and Subsidy Extensions for Walnut Orchards

The walnut market benefits from targeted public-sector incentives that lower production risk and fund research. The California Walnut Board’s 2024-25 assessment rate rise to USD 0.0125 per in-shell pound will channel roughly USD 18.25 million into marketing, export promotion, and orchard science.^{[1]Federal Register, “Walnuts Grown in California; Increased Assessment Rate,” federalregister.gov} USDA crop insurance protects growers against adverse weather, while a USD 1.3 million grant to the University of California Davis is advancing precision irrigation to curb orchard water use.^{[2]University of California Davis, “USDA Funds Precision Irrigation Research for Walnut Orchards,” ucdavis.edu}Combined, these measures stabilize farm income, accelerate technology adoption, and sustain the global walnut market’s supply base.

Rising Demand for Plant-Based Protein and Healthy Snacking

Health-driven consumers are turning walnuts into a pantry staple due to their omega-3, protein, and polyphenol content. FDA’s formal recognition of walnuts as “healthy” offers new labeling leverage that can boost supermarket velocity. Emerging research shows walnut pellicle lipids, such as oxylipins and endocannabinoids, support functional food positioning. Premium processors like Omega Walnuts, which exports 100% USDA No. 1 grade kernels, are capitalizing on this demand in Japan, Korea, and Australia. Convenience-oriented packaged snacks and ingredient-ready kernels keep shelled formats on a faster growth track than in-shell counterparts inside the walnut market.

Premiumization in Emerging Consumer Markets

Urban middle-class buyers in Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates increasingly favor premium, origin-certified walnut grades. Research linking darker seed-coat coloration to higher anthocyanin levels underpins visible quality cues that command price premiums. Investment funds such as Climate Asset Management have moved into large-scale Iberian orchards, signaling confidence in premium walnut assets as long-duration income streams.Provenance, processing refinement, and sustainability narratives are reshaping the walnut market toward higher-value segments.

Surge in Walnut Usage in Plant-Based Dairy and Nut-Protein Beverages

The plant-based beverage category increasingly formulates with walnuts to achieve a creamy texture and neutral flavor. Functional studies attest that walnut proteins deliver a balanced amino-acid profile while pellicle bioactives add antioxidant potential. The California Walnut Commission’s promotion campaigns in Southeast Asia align with the rapid uptake of non-dairy milk in the region. Processing technologies now separate walnut protein fractions without compromising sensory attributes, reinforcing the walnut market’s entry into premium beverage aisles.

High Water Footprint and Increasing Irrigation Restrictions

Walnut orchards require roughly 4.5 acre-feet of water per acre annually, exposing growers to escalating drought regulations in California. Crop-water stress-index monitoring and stem-water-potential sensors can improve scheduling, yet they do not eliminate the inherent water intensity of the crop. Policy-driven curbs on agricultural water allocations, plus competition from urban demand, will keep production costs elevated and cap output growth in several walnut market hubs.

Rising Orchard Labor Scarcity and Picking Costs

Specialty tree-crop labor remains tight, with harvest wages absorbing up to 60% of orchard operating costs in high-cost regions. Bonsai Robotics’ USD 15 million Series A funding aims to commercialize autonomous harvesters that double picking speed while lowering bruising losses.^{[3]Bonsai Robotics, “Series A Funding Announcement,” bonsairobotics.com} Equipment price, integration complexity, and skilled operator shortages moderate near-term rollouts, yet automation investments are projected to rise as orchards look for sustainable solutions to labor bottlenecks.

Segment Analysis

By Form: In-Shell Resilience and Shelled Upside

In-shell walnuts commanded 57.2% of the walnut market share in 2024, favored for natural protection and long storage life that suits export transit. The format protects kernel integrity, limiting rancidity and nutrient loss during months-long shipping cycles. Retailers in West Asia, North Africa, and South Europe prize bulk in-shell displays that draw seasonal shoppers. Shelled walnuts are projected to outpace the overall walnut market size, expanding at 8.1% CAGR to 2030 as food manufacturers require ingredient-ready inputs for snack bars, cereals, and nut butter. Ready-to-eat convenience also appeals to time-pressed consumers who prefer resealable pouches over nutcrackers. Premium processors such as Omega Walnuts differentiate shelled lines by guaranteeing kernel lightness and uniform sizing, earning premiums in quality-sensitive destinations. As plant-based formulators demand clean, allergen-controlled inputs, shelled walnut throughput in automated facilities is likely to accelerate, gradually rebalancing form dynamics inside the walnut market.

The widening shelled uptake rests on technology and logistics. Optical graders and air-jet sorters slash foreign-material rejection rates, raising pack-out yields for export-quality kernels. Vacuum packaging paired with low-oxygen flushing extends shelf life to more than 15 months under ambient supply chains. Collectively, these innovations erode the traditional storage edge of in-shell formats. Growers diversifying into hand-crack or color-sorted kernels can capture rising margins, although capital commitments remain high. Over time, the coexistence of heritage gift-box in-shell sales and high-volume shelled applications will keep both formats integral, yet the value-added trajectory clearly favors processed kernels.

Note: Segment shares of all individual segments available upon report purchase

Geography Analysis

Asia-Pacific anchored 39.2% of the global walnut market value in 2024, propelled by China’s status as the top producer at 1.5 million metric tons and rising domestic consumption. Provincial investment in Xinjiang’s modern orchards, now responsible for half of China’s output, underpins production growth despite land use and climate variability. Dietary shifts toward healthy snacking in urban coastal regions further elevate kernel demand. India, Japan, and South Korea supplement domestic supply with U.S. and Chilean imports, broadening regional offtake for premium grades. While freight disruptions and trade frictions cut U.S. shipments in 2024, alternative suppliers such as Chile filled the gap, underscoring fluid sourcing patterns in the walnut market.

North America remains a pivotal production hub despite California’s 19% crop decline to 670,000 metric tons in 2024, a shortfall driven by reduced acreage and erratic chill-hour accumulation. Precision irrigation programs and stem-water-potential research funded by USDA grants aim to conserve resources and lift yields. Mexico’s 176,893 metric tons contribution stabilizes regional availability and channels kernels into domestic confectionery and export lines. The United States still leads global shelled walnut exports, with market access supported by stringent quality controls and phytosanitary compliance that reassures high-value buyers across Europe and East Asia. Canada’s snack and bakery sectors rely heavily on the U.S. supply chains, reinforcing integrated North American demand within the walnut market.

The Middle East is the fastest-growing territory, advancing at 7.9% CAGR to 2030 on the strength of Iran’s 386,976 metric tons crop and Turkey’s 325,000 metric tons quality-graded harvests. Climatic suitability and supportive farm policies encourage orchard expansion while rising disposable incomes feed consumption of premium kernels in the Gulf Cooperation Council states. Trade policy shifts, such as Turkey’s elevated most-favored-nation duty on U.S. walnuts, are prompting importers to diversify origins and develop regional processing capacity. Egypt’s urban consumers prioritize quality over price, sustaining import demand even amid currency fluctuations, although lower-cost snack substitutes pose ongoing competition. Overall, the region’s blend of domestically produced and imported supply positions it as a strategic growth node for the walnut market.