Argentina Power Market Size & Share Analysis - Growth Trends And Forecast (2025 - 2030)

Argentina Power Market Trends and Insights

Government “Renovar” Auctions Accelerating Renewables

The third Renovar round targets 400 MW and continues a shift toward competitive tenders that delivered sub-USD 50/MWh solar tariffs.^{(1)Renewables Now, “Argentina Launches Renovar 3.0 Auction,” renewablesnow.com}Recent 373 MW additions in 2024 and a projected 700 MW in 2025 underscore steady progress. Enhanced local-content rules, grid-integration protocols, and the RIGI incentive regime have already unlocked USD 11.8 billion in private bids. Genneia’s 90 MW solar plant and a USD 240 million wind investment illustrate the growing scale of domestic commitments, though success hinges on transmission upgrades backed by the World Bank’s USD 12 billion support package.

Low-Cost Gas from Vaca Muerta Basin Improving Plant Load Factors

Record production of 400,000 bpd in Q3 2024 and a 1 million bpd target for 2030 reposition Vaca Muerta as a cornerstone of Argentina's power market economics. The USD 2.5 billion Vaca Muerta Sur pipeline channels gas to demand hubs, reducing costly LNG imports and lifting thermal capacity factors. YPF's partnership with Eni on floating LNG ensures flexible volumes that can pivot to domestic generators during peak demand.^{(2)Offshore Magazine, “YPF and Eni Advance Argentina LNG,” offshore-mag.com} Natural-gas output averaged 5 Bcf/d in September 2024, with Vaca Muerta contributing more than 70%.

Multilateral-Funded Grid Modernisation Projects

A USD 12 billion World Bank package and IFC’s USD 5.5 billion private-sector window target transmission, storage, and smart-grid upgrades. Central Puerto’s USD 600 million line to north-west mining sites demonstrates how concessional finance aligns with renewable growth and industrial demand. The 2024-2050 transmission plan prioritises high-voltage links and storage integration, directly addressing the curtailment challenges that have constrained Patagonia wind projects.

Industrial Rebound Lifting Electricity Demand

Manufacturing output recovered in 2024 as access to foreign currency improved, raising power demand in Buenos Aires, Córdoba, and Santa Fe. Lithium producers such as Ganfeng’s Mariana project in Salta installed a dedicated 28 MW plant to power an annual 20,000-ton lithium carbonate output. Petrochemical and steel players benefit from cheaper gas feedstocks, while corporate PPAs anchor long-term renewable offtake. Tariff normalisation, however, saw Buenos Aires rates rise 268% in 2024, prompting efficiency upgrades and on-site generation.

Macroeconomic Volatility & Currency Risk

The peso’s 50% December 2023 devaluation raised financing costs and squeezed project cash flows. A USD 2 billion payment backlog at system operator CAMMESA tightens liquidity, even with revised 60-day settlement terms. RIGI offers 30-year tax stability for projects above USD 200 million, yet import restrictions and exchange-rate gaps still push equipment costs 30% higher year on year. World Bank credit lines partly buffer currency risk, but developers remain exposed to further peso losses.

Transmission Congestion Curtailing Renewables

Patagonia wind farms and northern solar arrays often out-generate local demand, forcing curtailment when export capacity is full. The March 2025 heatwave left 620,000 Buenos Aires customers without power and highlighted grid fragility. Resolution 906/2023 creates a framework for battery energy storage to smooth dispatch, while the 2024-2050 plan schedules high-voltage links that would move surplus renewables to load centres.^{(3)Mercopress, “Heatwave Triggers Buenos Aires Blackout,” mercopress.com} Implementation lags, however, keep curtailment a medium-term restraint.

Segment Analysis

By Power Source: Gas Anchors Today, Nuclear Bets on Tomorrow

Thermal assets dominated at 56.7% of installed capacity in 2024, confirming gas as the linchpin of present-day supply. This slice equates to 25.4 GW within the Argentina power market size, underpinned by Vaca Muerta feedstock that has displaced LNG imports. Nuclear contributes less than 4% now, yet is poised for an 11.0% CAGR, the fastest pace among all sources, driven by the 32 MW CAREM25 small modular reactor scheduled for 2027 and Chinese-backed life extensions at Atucha I and Embalse. Renewables are accelerating, yet the 15% curtailment of Patagonian wind in 2024 underscores integration hurdles.

Vaca Muerta economics continue to sustain combined-cycle repowerings, including Pampa Energía’s USD 350 million Genelba expansion slated for 2026. Solar capacity in Jujuy rose by 300 MW to serve lithium extraction, while hydro output dropped sharply amid drought, revealing the weather-dependency of legacy assets. The segmentation shows a dual narrative: thermal plants are being optimized for abundant domestic gas, whereas capital for long-life decarbonization is split between baseload nuclear and faster-to-build but grid-constrained renewables.

Note: Segment shares of all individual segments available upon report purchase

By End User: Utilities Still Rule, C&I Redraws Boundaries

Utilities retained a 60.3% footprint in the 2024 Argentina power market, equal to 27 GW of the Argentina power market size under CAMMESA’s centralized dispatch model. However, the C&I segment is forecast to grow 5.5% annually to 2030, riding on lithium-sector PPAs and agro-industrial solar that sidestep tariff risk. Mining companies alone signed offtake deals for 320 MW of clean capacity in 2024, insulating operations from peso volatility. 

Subsidy rollbacks lifted residential tariffs by 300% in nominal terms during 2024, causing payment arrears and highlighting inequitable exposure to cost recovery. Developers favor creditworthy miners and exporters, leaving households to bear rising grid charges, a regulatory gap that could deepen social fissures. The Argentine power market demands updated cross-subsidy frameworks to balance self-generation benefits against communal system costs.

Note: Segment shares of all individual segments available upon report purchase

Geography Analysis

Regional dynamics strongly influence the Argentine power market. Buenos Aires and the surrounding provinces dominate consumption yet rely on distant resource hubs for supply. The March 2025 blackout, which affected 620,000 customers, underlined the need for stronger high-voltage links. Upgrading transmission will help move wind and solar from Patagonia and the north into this main load centre, reducing curtailment and improving resilience.

Patagonia hosts the country’s best wind regime, with capacity factors above 50%. Projects such as Verano Energy’s 200 MW solar array demonstrate rising solar interest as panel costs fall. Transmission, however, remains a bottleneck until the planned extra-high-voltage corridor is complete. The Argentina power market size for renewable projects in Patagonia is forecast to reach 9.2 GW by 2030, though timely grid expansion will determine actual realisation rates.

Northern provinces, Salta, Jujuy, and Catamarca, form the lithium triangle. Mining expansion translates into rapid power-demand growth. Ganfeng’s Mariana plant requires 28 MW of captive capacity, and Rio Tinto’s USD 2.5 billion project will need a similar supply once operational. Solar irradiation levels support competitive photovoltaic projects, while new transmission lines extend grid reach to remote sites. Hydropower potential, concentrated in the northeast, faces climate-driven variability, with the IEA projecting 15%–28% output declines by the end of the century.