Ammonium Nitrate Market Size & Share Analysis - Growth Trends and Forecast (2026 - 2031)

Global Ammonium Nitrate Market Trends and Insights

Expansion of ANFO and Emulsion Explosives in Large-Scale Surface Mining

Surface coal, copper, and lithium operations are turning to higher-energy ANFO and emulsion blends that reduce drilling density and speed up overburden removal, increasing technical-grade ammonium nitrate consumption. Orica’s 4D bulk-explosives platform combines emulsion with porous prills, offering variable energy output that tailors fragmentation and minimizes unit cost per ton of rock moved. Indonesia’s nickel laterite projects and Chile’s high-altitude copper pits require 20–30% more ammonium nitrate per ton of ore than older ANFO mixes because water ingress undermines conventional fuel-oil blends. Saudi Arabia’s SCCL plans a 300,000 ton-per-year technical-grade plant at Ras Al Khair, demonstrating how Gulf producers intend to localize explosive inputs and serve African mining ventures. As mines chase higher recovery rates, the ammonium nitrate market benefits from a demand profile that is less price-sensitive than agriculture.

Increasing Demand for Fertilizers in Global Agriculture

Baseline nitrogen demand rises as populations grow, yet regional divergence persists: India’s subsidy regime still favors urea, while Brazil’s Cerrado growers move to calcium-ammonium-nitrate to counter soil acidification. The European Union’s Farm to Fork strategy promotes precision technologies, pushing distributors toward polymer-coated granular ammonium nitrate that cuts leaching losses^{[1]European Commission, “Farm to Fork Strategy Progress Report 2025,” ec.europa.eu}. Argentina’s wheat producers lifted ammonium nitrate purchases 8% in 2025 on currency tailwinds, proving that price swings can override crop-nutrient traditions. The ammonium nitrate market, therefore, hinges on subsidy structures, carbon labeling, and agronomic differentiation rather than bulk nitrogen cost alone. Suppliers that bundle advisory services with coated or CAN products gain pricing power in this uneven policy landscape.

Decarbonised-Ammonia Projects Spurring Low-Carbon Nitrate Adoption

Blue and green ammonia ventures move the ammonium nitrate market toward a two-tier pricing structure as carbon-border adjustments penalize gray feedstock. CF Industries is installing capture units at Donaldsonville and Yazoo City that will abate 2 million tons of CO₂ each year, allowing the firm to brand “blue” ammonium nitrate for CBAM-regulated buyers. Hanwha and INEOS approved a United States blue-ammonia plant exceeding 1 million tons per annum, targeting 2030 start-up and supplying North American nitrate producers affected by emerging disclosure rules. Yara and Lantmännen’s agreement for 50,000 tons per annum of renewable-hydrogen-derived ammonia by 2027 exemplifies the green premium that Northern European distributors accept for climate-neutral labels. As more projects reach financial closure, the ammonium nitrate market gains a low-emission supply path that secures premiums of USD 50–100 per ton in regulated jurisdictions.

Surge in Calcium-Ammonium-Nitrate Demand from Regenerative Farming Programs

Regenerative frameworks prize soil-carbon gains and microbial health, spurring adoption of calcium-ammonium-nitrate that buffers pH and supplies nitrate nitrogen with lower leaching^{[2]United States Department of Agriculture, “Climate-Smart Commodities Grants 2026,” usda.gov} . European distributors logged double-digit volume growth for CAN blends in 2025 as carbon-credit schemes rewarded farmers for reduced nitrous-oxide emissions. In the United States, USD 3 billion in Climate-Smart Commodity grants encourage coated or CAN products that align with emissions metrics. Regional blenders now combine commodity prills with limestone, capturing margin on value-added formulations while easing entry barriers for non-integrated players. The ammonium nitrate market capitalizes on a trend where agronomic functionality overtakes pure cost-per-nitrogen considerations.

Stringent Regulations on Storage and Transport of Ammonium Nitrate

Following safety reviews, the US Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms, and Explosives shortened storage thresholds, compelling many rural distributors to drop ammonium nitrate inventories and pivot to UAN. Canada’s Explosives Regulations impose locked magazines and setback distances that hinder on-farm storage, driving growers toward liquid solutions delivered in bulk. Australia’s state zoning rules ban new depots within 500 meters of residences, shrinking distribution in peri-urban belts. While Asia maintains lighter oversight, the added compliance cost in OECD regions diverts 5–10% of nitrogen demand to substitutes. The ammonium nitrate market must therefore navigate uneven regulatory terrain that erodes its broad-acre fertilizer appeal.

Availability of Substitute Nitrogen Fertilizers (Urea, UAN, Urea + NBPT)

Urea capacity expanded by 8 million tons in 2024–2025, largely in the Middle East and North Africa, depressing prices relative to ammonium nitrate. UAN now supplies 40% of US corn nitrogen, up from 35% in 2020, integrating seamlessly with precision equipment and sidestepping ATF compliance. NBPT-treated urea narrows volatilization losses on high-pH soils in Brazil and Argentina, dulling ammonium nitrate’s agronomic edge. Where safety regulations are strict, the total cost of ownership tips toward urea or UAN despite lower nitrogen-use efficiency. Unless carbon-intensity labeling reallocates value to low-emission nitrate, the ammonium nitrate market faces persistent share leakage to these substitutes.

Segment Analysis

By Application: Explosives Outpace Fertilizers in Growth Velocity

Explosives expand at a 4.91% CAGR, nearly a full point above the overall ammonium nitrate market, while fertilizers grow more slowly due to urea substitution. Copper and nickel mines in Chile, Peru, and Indonesia use emulsion blends that require 25–35% more technical-grade nitrate per blast than conventional ANFO, driving premium demand for porous prills with consistent density.  

Fertilizer demand remains dominant in tonnage but is bifurcating: Europe invests in polymer-coated granular nitrate that satisfies nutrient-efficiency mandates, whereas Asia leans on subsidized urea, relegating ammonium nitrate to specialty crops. Explosives, by contrast, remain less price-sensitive because blasting misfires quickly inflate mining costs, allowing suppliers to command USD 20–30 per ton premiums over agricultural-grade product.

Note: Segment shares of all individual segments available upon report purchase

By Form: Granular Gains on Precision Agriculture

Granular product is the fastest-growing form at 5.66% CAGR, although porous prills still held 60.25% of volume in 2025 as the feedstock of choice for ANFO. Precision spreaders require uniform particle size, and polymer-coated granules extend nutrient release across 60–90 days, aligning with Europe’s Farm to Fork goals.

Porous prills maintain dominance in explosives thanks to their ability to absorb fuel oil rapidly, ensuring stable detonation velocity in bulk systems. Integrated producers such as Grupa Azoty hedge bets by manufacturing both forms in the same complex, balancing mining exports with coated fertilizer sales in Central Europe.

By Grade: Industrial Specifications Command Premium

Agricultural-grade ammonium nitrate, 77.14% of the 2025 base, grows more slowly due to storage-compliance burdens and government support for urea. Saudi Arabia’s planned 300,000 ton-per-year technical-grade plant will serve Gulf mining and East African copper markets, reflecting the geographic shift in premium demand.

Industrial-grade material expands at 4.89% CAGR, capturing clients in mining, defense, and specialty chemicals that demand <0.3% moisture and tight particle tolerances. Mining firms pay USD 30–50 per ton above agricultural grade to guarantee consistent fragmentation performance, while defense contractors require even cleaner feed for solid-rocket propellants.

By End-User Industry: Mining Surges as Agriculture Plateaus

Agriculture still accounts for 78.24% of volume, but grows more slowly because subsidy frameworks in India and storage rules in North America favor urea and UAN. Defense and automotive segments, although under 2%, secure specialized grades and add margin resilience to the ammonium nitrate market.

Mining expands at a 5.25% CAGR through 2031, benefiting from copper, lithium, and coal projects across South America, Asia-Pacific, and Africa. Chile alone consumed nearly 400,000 tons of technical-grade nitrate in 2025, up 50,000 tons from 2023, as operators aligned with electric-vehicle supply chains.

Note: Segment shares of all individual segments available upon report purchase

Geography Analysis

Asia-Pacific led the global volume with 45.46% in 2025 and is advancing at a 5.01% CAGR, propelled by China’s technical-grade exports to African and Latin American mines and India’s gradual shift from urea dependence toward differentiated nitrates. China’s coal-based ammonia remains cost-competitive, yet exporters increasingly upgrade to porous prills to capture mining premiums, reinforcing the ammonium nitrate market’s supply pivot toward explosives.

North America held a substantial market volume, but ATF rules curtail on-farm storage, pushing distributors toward bulk UAN even as blue-ammonia projects come online to satisfy CBAM-linked buyers in Europe. Canada’s potash and oil-sands industries sustain regional technical-grade demand that bypasses agricultural headwinds.

Europe grapples with CBAM reporting that penalizes high-emission imports, steering buyers toward domestic low-carbon supply such as Grupa Azoty’s Tarnów plant and Yara’s green-ammonia programs. Southern producers rely on North African imports, while Northern regions invest in carbon-capture retrofits to defend market share.

South America's market volume, driven by Brazil’s soybean expansion and Chile’s copper mining, yet the region lacks integrated capacity and imports porous prills from the Middle East and China, exposing it to freight volatility.

In the Middle East and Africa, Gulf blue-ammonia projects such as QAFCO 7 add 1.2 million tons of low-emission feedstock in 2026, positioning the region as a compliance hedge for European buyers. Saudi Arabia’s forthcoming technical-grade unit and South Africa’s mining uptake round out a diversified demand base.