Vietnam Power Market Size & Share Analysis - Growth Trends & Forecasts (2025 - 2030)

Vietnam Power Market Trends and Insights

Rapid Industrialisation-Led Electricity Demand Surge

Industrial production jumped 8.4% 2024, lifting nationwide electricity use to 1 billion kWh in late May and prompting EVN to deploy demand-response programs.^{(1)Source: Nguyen Lan, “Manufacturing Output and Electricity Use Surge,” VietnamPlus, vietnamplus.vn} The semiconductor sector alone is valued at USD 18.23 billion in 2024 and is expanding at 11.48% CAGR, an outcome of Vietnam’s “Silicon Delta” policy that targets 45% of output from high-tech goods by 2030. South Korea reclaimed the top-investor slot in early 2025, with SK Group allocating multibillion-dollar budgets to LNG and small-modular reactors. Meeting the government’s 8% GDP objective for 2025 requires 12–16% yearly additions to generation, magnifying the Vietnam power market dependency on fast-track grid projects. Foreign investors now cite a stable electricity supply as a precondition for high-tech plant siting.

Government Renewable-Energy Targets & FITs

The revised PDP-8 sets a 500.4–557.8 billion kWh consumption band for 2030 while mandating that renewables claim 28–36% of the mix, signaling a pivot away from coal dominance. New price caps place onshore wind at VND 1,959.4/kWh (USD 0.078) in the north and near-shore projects at VND 1,987.4/kWh (USD 0.079), restoring investor visibility after years of stalled guidance.^{(2)Source: Nguyen Quang, “Vietnam Issues Wind FITs for 2025,” Ministry of Industry and Trade, moit.gov.vn}Yet simultaneous retroactive tariff cuts threaten USD 13 billion in operating solar and wind assets, sparking protests from international developers. Decree 57/2025 introduced DPPAs, allowing private generators to bypass EVN and transact directly with qualified consumers, a reform expected to lower state-budget strain and quicken renewable deployment. These shifts align Vietnam with the ASEAN Power Grid vision that foresees clean sources covering up to 50% of regional output by 2030.

PDP-8-Driven FDI Inflow in Generation & Grid

Total infrastructure outlays are projected to climb 40% to USD 36 billion in 2025, with more than four-fifths tagged for power generation and transmission upgrades. Flagship deals include Huadian’s USD 2.4 billion green-hydrogen hub in Quang Tri and Vingroup’s USD 5.5 billion LNG complex in Hai Phong. On the grid side, the VND 7,410 billion (USD 300 million) 500 kV Lào Cai–Vĩnh Yên line will move 3,000 MW of northern hydro output when it goes live in September 2025. Equipment localization is gathering momentum; CS Wind is spending USD 200 million on a wind-tower plant in Long An to meet local offshore wind demand. Storage has emerged as a parallel play, with T&T Group targeting 2 GWh of annual battery output by 2026.

Grid-Modernisation Funding (ADB, JICA)

ADB has earmarked USD 16.5 billion for climate-resilient infrastructure, and Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh requested additional support for large energy schemes during the April 2025 meetings. Completed upgrades have added 1,000 MW of reactive compensation across 20 substations ahead of the 2025 dry-season peak. JICA co-finances the 1,500 MW Quang Ninh LNG station developed by PetroVietnam Power, Tokyo Gas, and Marubeni, due online in 2026-2027. EVN reports 100% online customer-service coverage and AI-enhanced monitoring trimmed outage times by 320% year-on-year. Extra 500 kV corridors will also carry 9,360–12,100 MW of imports from Laos, priced at USD 0.0695/kWh for hydroelectric flows

Slow PPA Approval & Regulatory Uncertainty

Around USD 13 billion in wind and solar assets are at risk after auditors found mis-applied FIT rules and suspended new PPAs pending review, prompting exits by Enel, Equinor, and Ørsted despite Vietnam’s headline plan to double capacity by 2030. A 6 GW offshore-wind zone was removed from the latest PDP-8 draft, deepening perceptions of policy volatility. Transmission approvals are equally sluggish; government data show only 2 of 16 mandated grid projects met 2024 timelines. These delays restrain the Vietnam power market’s tempo in the short run.

ESG-Driven Coal-Financing Squeeze

International lenders continue to tighten coal exposure, pressuring Vietnam’s plan to retire the fuel by 2050. Achieving net-zero requires USD 650 billion, much of it for biomass or ammonia conversions at existing coal sites. The JETP framework will channel concessional funds, but the gap remains wide; the Nam Dinh coal project is emblematic, losing ACWA Power in 2023 and now eyeing LNG repowering. Despite constraints, coal consumption set a record in 2024, revealing tensions between short-term reliability and long-term ESG compliance.

Segment Analysis

By Generation Source: Thermal Dominance Faces Wind Disruption

Thermal plants controlled 45% of the Vietnam power market share in 2024, anchored by coal units that stabilized the grid during drought-triggered hydro outages that removed 5,000 MW from service.At the same time, wind projects are on a 16.5% CAGR track through 2030, positioning the segment to chip away at thermal primacy as 3.4 GW offshore complexes come online. LNG is the mid-transition bridge; 15 new plants totaling 22 GW are scheduled by 2035, beginning with PetroVietnam’s 812 MW Nhon Trach 3 unit launched in January 2025^{(3)Thierry Bros, “Vietnam Launches First LNG Plant,” Enerdata, enerdata.net}. The Vietnam power market size for wind generation could top 20 GW by decade-end if auctions clear on schedule.

Hydropower remains the reliability linchpin, but seasonality undermines consistency, prompting battery trials and the nation’s first 1,200 MW pumped-storage scheme in Ninh Thuan, approved in February 2025. Solar deployment has rebounded after tariff resets, while biomass gained traction with a 20 MW rice-husk plant that eliminates 36,800 tons of CO₂ annually. Emerging nuclear options, long tabled, re-entered debate via feasibility talks with Russia, Japa,n and the United States, potentially resizing the Vietnam power market in the 2030s.

Note: Segment shares of all individual segments available upon report purchase

By T&D Voltage Level: High-Voltage Expansion Drives Grid Modernization

The above 500 kV network is growing rapidly, reflecting the intent to ship bulk power from hydro-rich north and wind-rich coasts to consumption hubs. This layer underpins the Vietnam power market size for transmission capacity, highlighted by the USD 300 million Lào Cai–Vĩnh Yên circuit that will add 3,000 MW of north-south transfer capability. The 220-330 kV tier integrates large thermal stations such as Hai Duong, while the 110 kV network provides last-mile reach to fast-growing industrial parks.

EVN delivered 50 new 110 kV projects in 2024, celebrating the 50th liberation anniversary and expanding rural electrification. Digital meters and AI-driven sensors are standard across Southern Power Corporation’s footprint, cutting technical losses and improving customer dashboards. International creditors fund much of the roll-out; ADB’s latest climate tranche earmarks substation automation, and JICA supports LNG interconnection works. These steps elevate the Vietnam power market to a regional trade node by 2030, ready to wheel imports from Laos at USD 0.0695/kWh.

By End-User: Data Centers Accelerate Commercial Demand Growth

Commercial and industrial customers captured 52% of consumption in 2024 as electronics and machinery clusters scaled output on preferential trade access and are surging at a 17% CAGR, heading for a USD 1.1 billion revenue pool by 2030, with Viettel IDC already controlling 49% of this sub-segment. The Vietnam power market size for high-tech parks is expanding in parallel, attracting SK Hynix, Apple suppliers and cloud majors that demand 99.9% uptime and renewable procurement options.

Residential needs grow alongside urban migration, while public-sector consumption edges up with e-government digitization. Rooftop solar is gaining regulatory backing, with a 50% building-coverage goal by 2030 and storage vendors such as Sigenergy deploying behind-the-meter batteries for load shifting. Energy-intensive fabs negotiate bespoke DPPA contracts to hedge volatile grid prices, widening the Vietnam power industry revenue mix. Foreign investors consistently rate electricity reliability as a top‐three site-selection factor, underscoring the centrality of end-user confidence to the Vietnam power market trajectory.

Note: Segment shares of all individual segments available upon report purchase

Geography Analysis

Northern provinces faced 1,200–2,500 MW shortfalls during the 2024 hot season, forcing 2.56 billion kWh of emergency imports from China and spurring fast-track 500 kV builds such as the 3,000 MW Lào Cai–Vĩnh Yên link. Southern hubs around Ho Chi Minh City logged 12.4% year-on-year demand growth in 2025, propelled by data-center and logistics activity that will reshape the Vietnam power market distribution curve by decade-end. Central coastal provinces are emerging as renewable giants; Corio-Fecon’s 500 MW offshore array and Huadian’s USD 2.4 billion wind-solar-hydrogen hybrid in Quang Tri underscore the shift.

Manufacturing investors in southern industrial parks endured costly 2023 outages, prompting government promises of “no repeat blackouts,” and accelerating LNG investment, including Vingroup’s USD 5.5 billion Hai Phong project. The Mekong Delta leverages new gas pipelines feeding the 1,155 MW Ô Môn IV combined-cycle plant slated for 2028 commissioning, firming supply for agricultural exports. Offshore wind technicians will train at the German-backed USD 50 million center in Binh Dinh, an initiative expected to certify thousands annually and bolster regional skills. Cross-border trade cements Vietnam’s role as an ASEAN energy hub; Laos hydro imports of up to 12,100 MW are contracted at ceiling prices that improve cost competitiveness in the Vietnam power market.