United States Smart Lock Market Size & Share Analysis - Growth Trends and Forecast (2026 - 2031)

United States Smart Lock Market Trends and Insights

Integration With Smart-Home Hubs and Voice Assistants

Matter 1.3 certification, ratified in late 2024, lets locks interoperate across Apple Home, Google Home, Amazon Alexa, and Samsung SmartThings without proprietary bridges, eliminating a major adoption barrier.^{[1]onnectivity Standards Alliance, “Matter 1.3 Specification,” csa-iot.org} Thread mesh networking replaces Bluetooth Low Energy as the default radio for battery-powered locks, cutting latency and improving range inside multistory residences. Schlage’s Encode Plus debuted Apple Home Key support in early 2025, and Kwikset’s Halo Select Plus matched the feature set by August 2025, reinforcing competitive parity on credential options.^{[2]Schlage Lock Company LLC, “Encode Plus Product Sheet,” schlage.com} Voice assistants now trigger compound routines, such as locking the door, arming the alarm, and adjusting the thermostat, through a single spoken command, which lowers the technical threshold for first-time buyers. The resulting rise in ease of use is broadening the United States smart lock market beyond early adopters into mass-market households. Continued firmware updates that bring Matter certification to older devices further protect consumer investment and encourage ecosystem stickiness.

Rising Package-Theft Incidents Boosting Entryway Security Demand

An estimated 250 000 parcels were stolen every day in 2025, driving USD 15 billion in annual losses across U.S. households according to aggregated carrier claims and retailer surveys. Smart locks paired with doorbell cameras allow owners to create one-time or time-bounded codes so delivery drivers can leave packages inside vestibules or garages. Amazon’s Key In-Garage Delivery program expanded to 15 additional metros in 2025, prompting lock vendors to pursue “Key-compatible” certification to tap that channel. Higher parcel volume in suburban single-family neighborhoods, combined with lower camera density than urban cores, intensifies demand for access-controlled drop-off points. The functional convergence of video verification, temporary credentials, and cloud logging has therefore repositioned entry doors as critical nodes in the last-mile logistics chain, lifting unit sales within the United States smart lock market.

Build-to-Rent Single-Family Developments Adopting Smart Locks at Scale

Institutional landlords managed roughly 750 000 rental homes in 2025, and most have standardized smartphone-controlled locks to remove physical key exchanges during tenant turnover.^{[3]Invitation Homes Inc., “Smart Homes in SFR,” invitationhomes.com} When specified during construction, smart locks eliminate retrofit labor, reduce door damage risk, and integrate natively with property-management software, allowing automatic credential provisioning at lease signing. Invitation Homes reports that automated re-keying shrinks vacant-unit days and cuts locksmith expenses by 60%, demonstrating clear operational savings that reinforce adoption. Sunbelt projects benefit most because horizontal site plans allow builders to pre-stage Wi-Fi and power infrastructure that supports Wi-Fi-enabled deadbolts and hardwired mortise locks alike. These efficiencies push institutional investors to factor smart-access infrastructure into pro-forma underwriting, reinforcing multi-year tailwinds for the United States smart lock market.

UWB Passive-Entry Capabilities Embedded in Smartphones

Ultra-wideband chips inside every flagship iPhone and Android handset sold since 2025 enable centimeter-level ranging, letting doors unlock automatically as the user approaches. The Connectivity Standards Alliance finalized the Aliro protocol in 2024 to govern credential exchange for UWB-enabled locks, ensuring a phone credential issued by one brand can be read by another’s hardware. Aqara shipped the first Aliro-certified U400 lock in early 2025 and Schlage and Yale both announced mid-2026 launches. Eliminating the Bluetooth wake-up delay addresses a core user-experience pain point and brings electronic access parity with a mechanical key in perceived speed. As handset penetration climbs, passive entry is poised to become the default unlock method on premium models, lifting average selling prices in the United States smart lock market.

Persistent Cyber-Security Vulnerabilities and Public Hacks

Demonstrations at DEF CON 32 in 2024 showed cloning of hotel-lock RFID cards in under 60 seconds, while CVE disclosures during 2024-2025 exposed hard-coded keys and replay flaws in several consumer brands.^{[4]DEF CON Communications, “Cloning Hotel RFID Locks,” defcon.org} Absent a mandatory federal certification regime, unlike the European ETSI TS 103 815 baseline, U.S. buyers rely on media reports and brand reputation to gauge device security. Each breach temporarily suppresses retail demand, especially among tech-savvy homeowners who fear door-unlock exploits. Manufacturers have responded with secure boot loaders and hardware-backed encryption, but SoC updates lengthen product cycles and raise bill-of-materials costs. Continued negative headlines therefore subtract momentum from the United States smart lock market even as feature innovation accelerates.

Multi-Family Building Code Restrictions on Retrofit Devices

International Building Code and NFPA 101 require that apartment entry doors retain 20- or 90-minute fire ratings verified through UL 10C tests, standards many battery-powered retrofits fail because plastic housings melt at elevated temperatures.^{[5]National Fire Protection Association, “NFPA 101 2024 Edition,” nfpa.org} High-rise property managers instead specify hardwired electrified mortise locks that maintain mechanical failsafe egress during outages, limiting the addressable retrofit base in dense urban markets. ANSI/BHMA endurance tests further constrain low-cost hardware that cannot sustain 500 000 open-close cycles.^{[6]American National Standards Institute, “ANSI/BHMA A156.5,” ansi.org} Consequently, retrofit vendors such as Wyze and SimpliSafe focus on single-family housing and smaller walk-up apartments exempt from stringent code oversight. This bifurcation caps retrofit volume growth and slows overall expansion of the United States smart lock market.

Segment Analysis

By Product Type: Mortise and Lever Formats Gain Commercial Traction

Deadbolts commanded 60.73% of United States smart lock market share in 2025, reflecting their ubiquity on single-family exterior doors. Mortise and lever formats, however, are forecast to grow at a 10.37% CAGR through 2031 as hotels, offices, and healthcare facilities prioritize Grade 1 mechanical robustness and code-compliant panic egress. The United States smart lock market size attributed to mortise platforms is projected to expand from USD 0.70 billion in 2026 to USD 1.15 billion by 2031, outpacing unit growth because commercial buyers accept higher average selling prices for durability and warranty coverage. Manufacturers now ship modular chassis that accept interchangeable trims, finishes, and credential modules, Wi-Fi, Thread, or Zigbee, reducing SKU count and smoothing installer logistics.

Lever-handle locks satisfy Americans with Disabilities Act clearance angles and one-hand egress rules, increasing adoption in elder-care facilities and public schools where building inspectors demand accessible hardware. Padlock-style smart locks remain a niche but resilient sub-segment, especially among logistics yards that need audit logs without drilling permanent holes into container doors. Meanwhile, rim locks attract multifamily renters who cannot alter door hardware, yet their surface-mount profile limits penetration into higher-income owner-occupied homes. Across every format, rapid iteration on battery-life optimization and Matter-over-Thread upgrades is blurring historical boundaries between commercial and consumer feature sets, sustaining momentum for product diversification inside the United States smart lock market.

Note: Segment shares of all individual segments available upon report purchase

By End-User: Commercial Hospitality and Corporate Segments Accelerate

Residential buyers generated 88.39% of 2025 revenue, but commercial deployments, in hospitality, retail, corporate campuses, education, and healthcare, are projected to post an 11.12% CAGR to 2031, twice the residential rate. Hotel chains migrating from RFID cards to mobile credentials show clear ROI: front-desk bypass improves guest satisfaction scores while reducing plastic card costs. Dormakaba’s Ambiance Cloud on-boarded over 500 hotels in 2025, and Vingcard’s VConnect added Apple and Google Wallet keys to legacy installations, confirming broad ecosystem uptake.

Corporate offices pivoting toward hot-desking rely on credentialed locks for office suites, phone booths, and lockers, linking access logs to occupancy analytics that inform real-estate consolidation decisions. Retail big-box stores deploy smart padlocks on warehouses and point-of-sale cash drawers, replacing manual key sign-outs. In healthcare, smart locks secure medication rooms to improve narcotics auditing under HIPAA, while universities integrate student ID systems to dormitory locks, automatically revoking credentials upon graduation or disciplinary action. This mosaic of commercial use cases captures higher recurring SaaS revenue per door than residential channels, lifting the blended average selling price and reinforcing revenue diversification across the United States smart lock industry.

By Installation Type: New-Construction Integration Reduces Retrofit Friction

Retrofit solutions represented 57.88% revenue share in 2025, leveraging an installed base of 100 million legacy doors nationwide. Yet builders now integrate locks during framing, allowing factory-milled bores, hidden wiring chases, and seamless integration with alarm and fire-panel circuits. The United States smart lock market size for new-construction deployments is projected to rise from USD 1.45 billion in 2026 to USD 2.40 billion by 2031, underscoring a 10.61% CAGR that outpaces retrofit growth. Installation labor falls from 45 minutes to below 10 minutes when doors arrive pre-drilled with strike plates aligned, which in turn reduces warranty claims for misaligned latches.

Build-to-rent single-family communities spearheaded by Lennar and DR Horton standardize locks across hundreds of homes, simplifying credential management for property managers and boosting take-rates for bundled smart-home service packages. Multifamily developers specify hardwired mortise locks that meet UL 10C fire ratings and tie into centralized credential platforms, avoiding the compliance pitfalls of battery-only retrofits. This divergence creates distinct go-to-market strategies: value-priced brands concentrate on DIY retrofit kits sold online, while enterprise-grade vendors court architects and general contractors during preconstruction design review, each reinforcing separate but parallel revenue flywheels inside the United States smart lock market.

By Distribution Channel: Direct-to-Consumer Brands Pressure Traditional Retail

Brick-and-mortar retail and professional installer networks retained 53.57% share in 2025, anchored by big-box chains such as Home Depot and Lowe’s that offer live product demos and in-aisle locksmith services. However, online channels are projected to grow at a 9.76% CAGR through 2031 as brands reduce wholesale margins and reinvest the spread into paid-search and influencer marketing. Amazon occupies a uniquely strategic position: it sells competing devices, certifies “Key-compatible” models for in-garage delivery, and cross-sells Ring doorbells and cloud storage, deepening platform lock-in.

Direct-to-consumer challengers, including Level Home, Lockly, and Wyze, eschew store shelves altogether, leveraging social media and unboxing videos to compress the awareness-to-purchase funnel. The approach trades physical trial for rapid iteration on firmware updates delivered over Wi-Fi, allowing these firms to roll out Matter or UWB features months ahead of brick-and-mortar cycles and sustain buzz among enthusiasts. Professional alarm installers such as ADT and Vivint protect their turf by bundling locks with monitoring contracts, effectively transforming hardware into a customer-acquisition subsidy. As online market penetration crosses 40%, retailers respond by offering installation add-ons and extended financing, blurring the historical distinctions between offline, online, and professional channels yet again inside the United States smart lock market.

Geography Analysis

Commercial research indicates that Sunbelt states, Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina, generate the highest unit growth because build-to-rent developers cluster in regions with favorable land prices and year-round construction calendars. In these areas, new rental communities pre-install smart locks and bundle Wi-Fi, accelerating first-time purchases and inflating regional penetration rates above the national average. Insurance discounts offered by carriers such as Allstate and State Farm further amplify adoption in weather-exposed coastal zones, where storm-related claims can be mitigated by connected door sensors that verify secure closure during evacuations.

The Northeast registers slower volume growth because housing stock skews older and retrofits must comply with stringent municipal fire codes. Nonetheless, rising package theft in densely populated New York and Massachusetts suburbs is nudging homeowners toward keypad-enabled deadbolts that log delivery events, sustaining moderate replacement demand. The Midwest sits between these extremes: sprawling single-family lots reduce neighbor surveillance, so consumers value smartphone alerts and auto-locking features that compensate for longer police response times. Local utilities in Illinois and Minnesota also pilot demand-response programs that integrate thermostats with door-lock status, indirectly boosting the United States smart lock market by bundling energy rebates with security upgrades.

On the West Coast, California’s Title 24 energy-efficiency mandates encourage integrated home-automation packages that include locks, lighting, and HVAC control. Builders adopt smart-access products to accumulate LEED points, while tech-savvy consumers in Silicon Valley skew toward premium models with UWB passive entry. Wildfire evacuation zones in Northern California have also seen municipalities promote connected locks that can be remotely verified as unlocked for firefighter entry, although adoption remains niche. Across all regions, federal infrastructure spending on broadband improves rural connectivity, removing one of the last technical roadblocks to nationwide penetration of the United States smart lock market.