Smart Lock Market Size, Demand, Forecast

Name: Smart Lock Market Size, Demand, Forecast | Industry Trends 2030
Creator: Mordor Intelligence
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Smart Lock Market Size and Share

Market Overview

Study Period	2019 - 2030
Market Size (2025)	USD 3.23 Billion
Market Size (2030)	USD 6.61 Billion
Growth Rate (2025 - 2030)	15.40% CAGR
Fastest Growing Market	Asia Pacific
Largest Market	North America
Market Concentration	Low
Major Players *Disclaimer: Major Players sorted in no particular order Image © Mordor Intelligence. Reuse requires attribution under CC BY 4.0.

Smart Lock Market (2025 - 2030) — Image © Mordor Intelligence. Reuse requires attribution under CC BY 4.0.

Smart Lock Market Analysis by Mordor Intelligence

The smart lock market stands at a valuation of USD 3.23 billion in 2025 and is forecast to reach USD 6.61 billion by 2030, reflecting a 15.40% CAGR. The outlook highlights the convergence of maturing smart-home platforms, rising urban security concerns, and expanding IoT connectivity that favors remote door access. Interoperability progress through the Matter and Thread standards now removes many integration barriers, while declining biometric sensor prices are broadening feature sets across both residential and light-commercial models. Price increases linked to semiconductor shortages are a near-term headwind, yet insurance premium discounts and total-cost-of-ownership savings continue to encourage replacement of mechanical locks. Intensifying acquisition activity shows established access-control leaders positioning to secure scale, channel reach, and core technology.

Key Report Takeaways

By lock type, deadbolts led with 45.7% revenue share in 2024; lever handle systems are projected to advance at a 15.6% CAGR to 2030.
By communication technology, Bluetooth held 62.3% of smart lock market share in 2024, while Zigbee-based solutions are poised to expand at 17.2% CAGR through 2030.
By authentication method, keypads captured 42.7% of the smart lock market size in 2024; biometrics is set to grow at a 17.7% CAGR between 2025-2030.
By end-user application, residential installations accounted for 57.9% of revenue in 2024; hospitality and short-term rentals are expected to register the fastest 17.1% CAGR to 2030.
By geography, North America dominated with 37.7% share in 2024, whereas Asia-Pacific is forecast for a 15.9% CAGR through 2030.

Global Smart Lock Market Trends and Insights

Drivers Impact Analysis

Driver	(~) % Impact on CAGR Forecast	Geographic Relevance	Impact Timeline
Rapid adoption of smart-home ecosystems	+3.20%	Global, with North America and Europe leading	Medium term (2-4 years)
Rising burglary and safety concerns in urban areas	+2.80%	Global, concentrated in urban centers	Short term (≤ 2 years)
Smartphone and IoT proliferation enabling remote access	+2.50%	Global, with Asia-Pacific showing highest growth	Long term (≥ 4 years)
Building-code push for keyless energy-efficient doors	+1.90%	North America and Europe primarily	Long term (≥ 4 years)
Airbnb-style rentals demanding automated guest access	+2.10%	Global, concentrated in tourism hubs	Medium term (2-4 years)
Home-insurance premium discounts for connected locks	+1.40%	North America and Europe	Medium term (2-4 years)
Source: Mordor Intelligence

Rapid Adoption of Smart-Home Ecosystems

Growing preference for unified device control makes smart lock integration one of the first upgrades in connected homes. Matter-over-Thread launches by Yale, Schlage, and Level are removing vendor lock-in and extending battery life to more than 12 months. Voice assistants already reside in 70% of United States households, which accelerates voice-enabled locking. Scheduled Thread 1.4 adoption by 2026 will let new products join existing networks without additional hubs, further tightening ecosystem stickiness.^{[1]YaleHome,"Yale Announces New Matter over Thread Deadbolt Lock," yalehome.com}

Rising Burglary and Safety Concerns in Urban Areas

Urban crime patterns have raised homeowner vigilance, and data show 83% of burglars survey security setups before entry. Integrating a smart lock with video verification closes the 15-second alarm response gap common in legacy systems. Lockly’s facial recognition engine now flags unauthorized faces in 1.5 seconds, sending real-time alerts that deter opportunistic crime. Multi-factor combinations of biometrics and PINs add layered protection for dense residential high-rises where anonymity often aids break-ins.

Smartphone and IoT Proliferation Enabling Remote Access

Smartphone penetration exceeds 85% in developed markets, delivering the control interface critical to the smart lock market. Rollout of 5G networks minimizes latency for cloud-managed unlocking, while ultra-wideband chips enable proximity-based doors that auto-open for registered users. Digital wallet integration is emerging, letting the same credential verify payments and physical entry. For example, NEC's biometric systems deployed at Expo 2025 in Osaka demonstrate how smart locks can facilitate both access control and cashless payment processing. ^{[2]NEC,"NEC Biometrics: No Cards, No Keys, No Problem," nec.com} Matter certification now guarantees interoperability so property owners can mix devices while still using a single mobile app.

Building-Code Push for Keyless Energy-Efficient Doors

Recent building regulations require electronic locks in several large metropolitan projects to track occupancy and automate HVAC and lighting. Studies show smart locks integrated with building systems cut energy use by 15-20%. ADA requirements also favor touch-free entry that assists elderly users, leading to higher adoption in senior housing. LEED scoring has begun awarding credits for connected access control, making smart locks part of sustainability checklists on new builds.

Restraints Impact Analysis

Restraint	(~) % Impact on CAGR Forecast	Geographic Relevance	Impact Timeline
Cyber-security and hacking vulnerabilities	-2.10%	Global, with higher impact in security-conscious markets	Short term (≤ 2 years)
Up-front device and installation cost premium	-1.80%	Global, with higher impact in price-sensitive markets	Medium term (2-4 years)
Battery-life / maintenance anxieties among consumers	-1.20%	Global, particularly in residential applications	Medium term (2-4 years)
Inter-protocol interoperability gaps in retrofit projects	-0.90%	North America and Europe primarily	Short term (≤ 2 years)
Source: Mordor Intelligence

Cyber-Security and Hacking Vulnerabilities

High-profile breaches have exposed biometric bypasses and cloneable NFC tags in mainstream models. Tests by one consumer association found 85.7% of chip-activated units exhibited at least one critical flaw. Vendors now ship end-to-end encryption and two-factor log-ins, yet fragmented hardware designs make universal patching hard to maintain. Industry groups within the Connectivity Standards Alliance are drafting baseline requirements, but wide variation in implementation keeps cyber-risk elevated.

Up-Front Device and Installation Cost Premium

Smart locks typically retail between USD 200-800, while traditional deadbolts cost USD 50-150. Professional installation of USD 100-200 further raises the barrier. Tariff pass-through and semiconductor shortages have pushed list prices up to 10% higher during 2024-2025. Subscription models such as Centrios’ free tier for five openings hint at new pricing tactics that may soften the impact, yet entry-level households in emerging markets still view the replacement decision as discretionary.^{[3]Secura, "Security concerns in popular smart home devices," secura.com}

Segment Analysis

By Lock Type: Deadbolts Maintain Familiarity While Lever Handles Accelerate

Deadbolts retained 45.7% of 2024 revenue, reflecting widespread homeowner confidence in their physical robustness. This share equates to the largest slice of the smart lock market size for hardware formats. Lever handle systems achieved the leading 15.6% CAGR due to ADA compliance needs in hotels and offices, demonstrating how ease-of-operation appeals to high-traffic settings.

Consumers seeking discreet upgrades have driven interest in retrofit cylinders that hide electronics inside existing housings, exemplified by Level’s invisible mechanism. Padlock-style smart devices service out-door industrial use cases but remain niche because of weather-proofing costs. Continuous miniaturization will likely blur category boundaries, though deadbolts are expected to keep a commanding presence through 2030 in the smart lock market.

Smart Lock Market: Market Share by Lock Type — Image © Mordor Intelligence. Reuse requires attribution under CC BY 4.0.

By Communication Technology: Zigbee and Thread Outpace Legacy Bluetooth

Bluetooth held 62.3% share in 2024, translating into the top position within the smart lock market share for connectivity. Its phone-to-lock pairing simplicity favors rental properties where router access is uncertain. Range and mesh limitations, however, make it less suited to multi-unit dwellings.

The Zigbee-Thread stack is projected for a 17.2% CAGR, propelled by Matter certification and Silicon Labs’ ultra-low-power SoCs. Wi-Fi continues in cloud-first deployments that prioritize direct remote control despite battery drain. Emerging ultra-wideband adds hands-free precision but sits within the “Others” bucket until shipping volumes scale. Across protocols, standardization is shrinking fragmentation, a trend that will raise the overall smart lock market adoption curve.

By Authentication Method: Biometrics Challenge Keypads

Keypads produced the largest 42.7% revenue slice in 2024 and thus dominate the smart lock market size for credentials. Users appreciate code familiarity and backup battery life. Nonetheless, shared codes and manual entry inconvenience check keypad growth.

Biometric units log a 17.7% CAGR as camera, sensor, and AI costs drop. Facial recognition unlocks now complete in under 1.5 seconds at 99.9% accuracy, bringing premium-grade convenience into mid-price models. RFID and NFC cards remain common in offices requiring audit trails, while mobile credential use gains ground where bring-your-own-device policies prevail. Biometric progress is expected to reset user expectations and propel higher-spec differentiation across the smart lock market.

Smart Lock Market: Market Share by Authentication Method — Image © Mordor Intelligence. Reuse requires attribution under CC BY 4.0.

By End-User: Hospitality Gains Momentum

Residential buyers generated 57.9% of 2024 revenue, making homes the anchor of the smart lock market. Builders increasingly bundle connected locks to stand out in competitive housing markets. Parents use temporary codes for service providers, reinforcing convenience value.

Hospitality and short-term rentals will witness the fastest 17.1% CAGR, led by self-check-in mandates that arose during the pandemic. Properties cut staffing costs and improve guest satisfaction by replacing keycards with phone credentials. Commercial offices upgrade to integrate visitor logs with desk-booking tools, while industrial facilities prioritize ruggedized enclosures. The broadening scenario expands total addressable demand and sustains double-digit growth in the smart lock market.

Geography Analysis

North America secured 37.7% of 2024 revenue due to early smart-home adoption, favorable codes, and insurance discounts of up to 10% for connected security. The United States drives renovation demand as developers view smart locks as standard amenity packages. Canada follows, leveraging similar building norms and broadband penetration.

Asia-Pacific is set for the highest 15.9% CAGR, reflecting rapid urban migration and growing middle-class disposable income. China leads smart-home shipments, while India’s residential automation pipeline shows a 39.79% expansion outlook that positions smart locks near the top of consumer upgrade lists. Japan’s aging demographic attracts contactless door solutions supporting senior independence.

Europe posts steady progression anchored by energy-efficiency directives and strong privacy oversight. Advanced encryption requirements raise development costs yet promote differentiated offerings that comply with GDPR. The Middle East and Africa, though smaller today, benefit from smart-city investments baked into greenfield real-estate projects, enabling leapfrog adoption paths that raise the future baseline of the smart lock market.

Smart Lock Market CAGR (%), Growth Rate by Region — Image © Mordor Intelligence. Reuse requires attribution under CC BY 4.0.

Competitive Landscape

The field remains moderately fragmented: the top five suppliers account for roughly one-third of global revenue, leaving room for fast-moving specialists. ASSA ABLOY integrates Yale, August, and HID to address multiple price tiers, while Allegion builds on Schlage’s residential reach and Von Duprin’s commercial roots. Spectrum Brands leverages the Kwikset and Baldwin portfolios, and dormakaba balances hospitality leadership with Swiss engineering credibility.

Acquisition strategies show two patterns. Horizontal moves expand channel breadth, as seen in ASSA ABLOY’s purchase of Level Lock for USD 16 million. Vertical steps secure technology and premium branding: Fortune Brands paid USD 800 million for Yale and August to deepen connected-products scale. Challenger brands Lockly, U-TEC, and Nuki differentiate with fast biometric innovation and early Matter certification. Consumer-electronics giants Samsung and Xiaomi harness existing IoT ecosystems to enter the smart lock market on favorable cost curves, pressuring mid-tier incumbents.

Standards alliances further shape rivalry. Apple, Google, and Samsung introduced the Aliro smartphone credential, which could erode physical key reliance and shift bargaining power toward mobile-OS owners. To stay competitive, legacy firms increasingly bundle cloud platforms and analytics, turning hardware sales into recurring-revenue gateways that stabilize margins in the smart lock market.

Smart Lock Industry Leaders

ASSA ABLOY (Yale, August)
Allegion plc (Schlage)
Spectrum Brands Holdings (Kwikset)
dormakaba Group
Honeywell International
*Disclaimer: Major Players sorted in no particular order

Image © Mordor Intelligence. Reuse requires attribution under CC BY 4.0.

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Recent Industry Developments

July 2025: Bitkey completed a 1,000-unit deployment across rental properties run by Sanfuku Management Center in Japan.
April 2025: ASSA ABLOY launched Centrios, a small-business access platform with a free tier for five openings.
March 2025: Eufy published installation-cost guidance showing professional fees of USD 100-200 per unit.
March 2025: Yale unveiled a Matter-over-Thread deadbolt supporting lower standby power budgets.

Table of Contents for Smart Lock Industry Report

1. INTRODUCTION

1.1 Study Assumptions and Market Definition
1.2 Scope of the Study

2. RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

3. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

4. MARKET LANDSCAPE

4.1 Market Overview
4.2 Market Drivers
- 4.2.1 Rapid adoption of smart-home ecosystems
- 4.2.2 Rising burglary and safety concerns in urban areas
- 4.2.3 Smartphone and IoT proliferation enabling remote access
- 4.2.4 Building-code push for keyless energy-efficient doors
- 4.2.5 Airbnb-style rentals demanding automated guest access
- 4.2.6 Home-insurance premium discounts for connected locks
4.3 Market Restraints
- 4.3.1 Cyber-security and hacking vulnerabilities
- 4.3.2 Up-front device and installation cost premium
- 4.3.3 Battery-life / maintenance anxieties among consumers
- 4.3.4 Inter-protocol interoperability gaps in retrofit projects
4.4 Supply-Chain Analysis
4.5 Regulatory Landscape
4.6 Technological Outlook
4.7 Porter's Five Forces
- 4.7.1 Bargaining Power of Suppliers
- 4.7.2 Bargaining Power of Buyers
- 4.7.3 Threat of New Entrants
- 4.7.4 Threat of Substitutes
- 4.7.5 Intensity of Competitive Rivalry
4.8 Assesment of Macroeconomic Factors on the market

5. MARKET SIZE AND GROWTH FORECASTS (VALUE)

5.1 By Lock Type
- 5.1.1 Deadbolt
- 5.1.2 Lever Handle
- 5.1.3 Padlock
- 5.1.4 Others
5.2 By Communication Technology
- 5.2.1 Bluetooth
- 5.2.2 Wi-Fi
- 5.2.3 Zigbee
- 5.2.4 Others
5.3 By Authentication Method
- 5.3.1 Pin-Code / Keypad
- 5.3.2 Biometric (Fingerprint, Face)
- 5.3.3 RFID / NFC Card
- 5.3.4 Others
5.4 By End-user
- 5.4.1 Residential
- 5.4.2 Commercial Offices
- 5.4.3 Hospitality and Short-term Rentals
- 5.4.4 Industrial and Infrastructure
5.5 By Geography
- 5.5.1 North America
- 5.5.1.1 United States
- 5.5.1.2 Canada
- 5.5.1.3 Mexico
- 5.5.2 South America
- 5.5.2.1 Brazil
- 5.5.2.2 Argentina
- 5.5.2.3 Rest of South America
- 5.5.3 Europe
- 5.5.3.1 Germany
- 5.5.3.2 United Kingdom
- 5.5.3.3 France
- 5.5.3.4 Italy
- 5.5.3.5 Spain
- 5.5.3.6 Rest of Europe
- 5.5.4 Asia-Pacific
- 5.5.4.1 China
- 5.5.4.2 Japan
- 5.5.4.3 India
- 5.5.4.4 South Korea
- 5.5.4.5 Southeast Asia
- 5.5.4.6 Rest of Asia-Pacific
- 5.5.5 Middle East and Africa
- 5.5.5.1 Middle East
- 5.5.5.1.1 Saudi Arabia
- 5.5.5.1.2 United Arab Emirates
- 5.5.5.1.3 Turkey
- 5.5.5.1.4 Rest of Middle East
- 5.5.5.2 Africa
- 5.5.5.2.1 South Africa
- 5.5.5.2.2 Nigeria
- 5.5.5.2.3 Egypt
- 5.5.5.2.4 Rest of Africa
- 5.5.5.2.5 Egypt
- 5.5.5.2.6 Rest of Africa

6. COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

6.1 Market Concentration
6.2 Strategic Moves
6.3 Market Share Analysis
6.4 Company Profiles (includes Global level Overview, Market level overview, Core Segments, Financials as available, Strategic Information, Market Rank/Share for key companies, Products and Services, and Recent Developments)
- 6.4.1 ASSA ABLOY (Yale, August)
- 6.4.2 Allegion plc (Schlage)
- 6.4.3 Spectrum Brands Holdings (Kwikset)
- 6.4.4 dormakaba Group
- 6.4.5 Honeywell International
- 6.4.6 SALTO Systems
- 6.4.7 U-TEC (ULTRALOQ)
- 6.4.8 Lockly
- 6.4.9 Master Lock
- 6.4.10 Nuki Home Solutions
- 6.4.11 Netatmo (Legrand)
- 6.4.12 SimpliSafe
- 6.4.13 Samsung SDS
- 6.4.14 Aqara (Xiaomi)
- 6.4.15 Eufy Security (Anker)
- 6.4.16 Level Home
- 6.4.17 Tedee
- 6.4.18 Hanman International
- 6.4.19 Panasonic Life Solutions
- 6.4.20 Xiaomi Mi Smart Home

7. MARKET OPPORTUNITIES AND FUTURE OUTLOOK

7.1 White-space and Unmet-Need Assessment

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Global Smart Lock Market Report Scope

A smart lock is an electromechanical locking device that enables users in various industries to remotely access and unlock the lock to enter the premises. It can be accessed by connecting it to smartphones and other smart devices through various communication technologies like Wi-Fi, Bluetooth, Zigbee, or Z-Wave. It allows remote authentication to verified and authorized users.

The Smart Lock Market is Segmented By Communication Technology (Wi-Fi, Bluetooth, Zigbee, Z-Wave), Authentication Methods (Biometric, Pin Code, RFID Cards), End-user Applications (Commercial, Residential, Educational Institutes & Government, Industrial), and Geography (North America, Europe, Asia-Pacific, and Rest of the World).

The market sizes and forecasts are provided in terms of value (USD million) for all the above segments.

By Lock Type	Deadbolt
	Lever Handle
	Padlock
	Others
By Communication Technology	Bluetooth
	Wi-Fi
	Zigbee
	Others
By Authentication Method	Pin-Code / Keypad
	Biometric (Fingerprint, Face)
	RFID / NFC Card
	Others
By End-user	Residential
	Commercial Offices
	Hospitality and Short-term Rentals
	Industrial and Infrastructure

By Geography	North America	United States
		Canada
		Mexico

	South America	Brazil
		Argentina
		Rest of South America

	Europe	Germany
		United Kingdom
		France
		Italy
		Spain
		Rest of Europe

	Asia-Pacific	China
		Japan
		India
		South Korea
		Southeast Asia
		Rest of Asia-Pacific

	Middle East and Africa	Middle East	Saudi Arabia
			United Arab Emirates
			Turkey
			Rest of Middle East

		Africa	South Africa
			Nigeria
			Egypt
			Rest of Africa
			Egypt
			Rest of Africa

By Lock Type

Deadbolt

Lever Handle

Padlock

Others

By Communication Technology

Bluetooth

Wi-Fi

Zigbee

Others

By Authentication Method

Pin-Code / Keypad

Biometric (Fingerprint, Face)

RFID / NFC Card

Others

By End-user

Residential

Commercial Offices

Hospitality and Short-term Rentals

Industrial and Infrastructure

By Geography

North America	United States
	Canada
	Mexico
South America	Brazil
	Argentina
	Rest of South America
Europe	Germany
	United Kingdom
	France
	Italy
	Spain
	Rest of Europe
Asia-Pacific	China
	Japan
	India
	South Korea
	Southeast Asia
	Rest of Asia-Pacific

Middle East and Africa	Middle East	Saudi Arabia
		United Arab Emirates
		Turkey
		Rest of Middle East

	Africa	South Africa
		Nigeria
		Egypt
		Rest of Africa
		Egypt
		Rest of Africa